死亡纏繞失效了？球員在倫納德防守下命中率竟比平時高3%！

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死亡纏繞失效了？球員在倫納德防守下命中率竟比平時高3%！

Players are shooting +3% better than average when guarded by Kawhi Leonard this year

死亡纏繞失效了？這本賽季球員在倫納德的防守下，他們的命中率都比自己的平均命中率高了3%。（數據截至至12月08日）

A 22 game sample size is relatively small, but this is a pretty big difference from his DFG% differential last year (-5.6%).

Dewayne Dedmon is the current leader in DFG Differential at -12.5% (10 game minimum).

All stats taken from stats.nba.com

這賽季聯盟中防守對象命中率與通常命中率差別最大的是德維恩-戴德蒙，在他的防守下，對位球員的命中率比平時低了12.5%（比較範圍為最少打了10場比賽的球員）。

雖然目前才進行了22場比賽，樣本量還很小不具備說服力，不過與他去年的防守對象命中率差異相比，這已經是很大的差別了（去年這一數據為-5.6%，也就是說去年當和倫納德對位時，球員們的命中率會比通常的命中率低上5.6%）

這些數據都來自於stats.nba.com。

[–]Hawkspln1991 128 指標 1 天前

This could mean a number of things:

1) He"s just getting unlucky

2) He"s having to help a lot more and is thus closing out later, and this benefits his team

3) He"s helping too much and is thus closing out later, and this hurts his team

4) Guys are only taking good shots against him (because he"s been so good for a few years now)

5) His individual defense hasn"t been as effective (maybe because of the increased offensive burden)

I"m guessing some combination of all of them.

這個數據可能包含著以下的信息：

1) 倫納德最近運氣不太好，他防守的對象手感都很棒。

2)目前他需要更多的去幫助隊友協防，從而導致不能及時的回到自己防守對象身前，這其實能幫助球隊。

3)他協防的程度有些過了，從而給了自己防守對象過於多的空間，這點會傷害他的球隊。

4) 當球員們和他對位時，只會出手非常有把握的投籃（因為他在最近幾年的防守都非常出色，大家都不敢在他身前浪）。

5) 他的單防能力沒有以前那麼有效了（也許是因為進攻端需要他做得更多造成的）。

在我看來，以上這五點都包含在了這個數據中。

[–]Spurslearnyouahaskell 26 指標 1 天前

"Guys are only taking good shots against him"

Yeah, this was the first thing I thought

「與他對位的球員只出手非常有把握的投籃」

是的，這就是看到這一數據時我腦海中的第一想法。

[–]RaptorsAbyss333333 466 指標 1 天前

I mean no one even bothers to iso him anymore. And Kawhi kind of plays like a safety now that his other teammates arent that great at defense.

現在幾乎沒有人願意去單打他了，而且目前倫納德就是馬刺防守的全部，隊友們的防守並沒有他那麼棒。

[–]Spursec2xs 73 指標 1 天前

Could see it against Minny last night. Wiggins only got up 12 shots and passed up almost every ISO opportunity.

從馬刺對陣森林狼的比賽就可以看出來，威金斯整場比賽只出手了12次投籃，而且每當出現能夠單打倫納德的機會時，他幾乎都把球傳出去了。

[–]ChopSueyWarrior 5 指標 1 天前

The fear of the claw stripping his dribble clean off.

聯盟都非常恐懼「死亡纏繞」。

[–]SpursParkBaller27 165 指標 1 天前

I think this has alot to do with it. People know not to go against kawhi unless you have a good shot

我覺得這一點非常有道理，球員們都知道不要單打倫納德或者在他面前運球，除非你有非常好的機會去得分。

[–][GSW] Dorell WrightThunder_Clatter 52 指標 1 天前

I agree with you on this one.

（勇士迷）我也同意這一點。

[–]HornetsCrafthai 18 指標 1 天前

I agree with him on that one

（黃蜂迷）我們也經歷過被「死亡纏繞」統治的恐懼。

[–]Jazzwoonbarak 18 指標 1 天前

Needed to read your post 3 times until I understood, but now that I do I agree. In the 2 games against Utah he was mainly covering Hood and he had a lot less touches compared to other games.

I wonder how many touches and shots players have per minute when guarded by Kawhi compared to their average activity.

Popovich will figure sth out though

我看了三遍你的回復才明白你想表達什麼，不過現在我徹底明白了。在對陣爵士的兩場比賽里他主要在防守胡德，從而和平常的比賽相比，胡德那場比賽的接球次數少了很多。

我在想，當和倫納德對位時，這些球員每分鐘的接球次數和投籃次數有多少，和通常相比發生了怎樣的變化。

反正波波維奇會弄清楚究竟發生了什麼事情的。

[–]Spursjflowers321 94 指標 1 天前

I bet players average less attempted shots against Kawhi.

我打賭當和倫納德對位時，這些球員的出手數都減少了。

[–][GSW] Andris Biedrinsalisial3 40 指標 1 天前

Shot attempts against Kawhi have increased slightly from last year (9.4 per game) to this year (9.5 per game).

But yah, he"s ranked 120 out of 437 on DFGA.

這賽季對位倫納德時球員們的出手數（9.5次）比上賽季（9.4次）稍有增加。

但是在DFGA（面對該球員防守的人場均投籃的次數）這一數據上，倫納德在總共437名球員中排名120位。

[–][SAS] Tim Duncanrattatatouille 24 指標 1 天前

Given that Pau Gasol is now playing center for us this should be no surprise

考慮到保羅-加索爾目前是我們的中鋒，倫納德的防守數據並不令人吃驚。

[–]Bullschitownbulls92 15 指標 1 天前

That"s similar to what happened to Jimmy Butler last year when pau was on the team. The perimeter defensive ace has to help pick up the slack and leads to stats that may suggest they are not elite defenders

這和去年大加索爾在公牛時吉米-巴特勒的境地有些類似。這位外線防守大閘很多時候都需要為大加索爾的懈怠而去補防，這也導致了對自己防守球員的失位，從而讓別人以為他們不再是頂尖的防守者了。

[–]Spurshoopdummy 246 指標 1 天前

Ding ding ding! He is playing free safety like a mother fucker, that"s what I"ve been saying. He switches everything. He goes anywhere he wants to on D. Sometimes it"s worked, sometimes it hasn"t, but he"s figuring it out. Danny Green has been the main iso defender for us, for that specific reason.

聽好了，這才是重點。這賽季他就是馬刺的防守保險箱，在場上不知疲倦的換防，這就是我所看到的，他會去防守任何人，去任何他覺得能起到防守作用的位置。有些時候這樣有效果，另外一些時候則適得其反，但是他正在摸索，他會搞清楚的。也正是因為這個原因，目前丹尼-格林才是馬刺防守單打最主要的球員。

[–]Spurshhunterhh 10 指標 1 天前

Couldn"t have said it better. His role change this year I believe would easily explain the deficit. Anyone who has watched a decent amount of the games would agree with you I think.

不能比你說得更好了。今年倫納德的角色變化了很多，這種變化能夠很明顯的解釋防守數據上的下降。不過只要看過足夠多他的比賽的人們都會同意你的說法的。

[–]Mavericksbadoosh123 97 指標 1 天前

Defense, more than any other aspect of basketball, cannot be surmised in stats. Specifically perimeter defense. You have to actually watch them play to gauge how good a player is at defense.

防守是籃球比賽里最難以從數據中體現出來的東西，尤其是外線防守，你必須要親自看了這些球員在場上的表現，才能判斷他們究竟是不是一名出色的防守者。

[–]Hawkspln1991 59 指標 1 天前

The problem with that approach is that most people are terrible at watching basketball and determining whether a player is helping his team.

問題就在於這裡，很多人都不太會看比賽，也不能發現到底哪位球員是在真正的幫助自己的球隊。

[–]RamSwami02 13 指標 1 天前

So he"s not a great two way player anymore?

所以現在倫納德不再是一名攻防兩端都非常出色的球員了嗎？

[–]suphater 61 指標 1 天前

Yep he peaked at age 24

是的，24歲後巔峰已過。

[–]ThunderDirectorPhiICoulson 30 指標 1 天前

Shit so did I though

（雷霆迷）見鬼，我們的巔峰也停留在了去年。

[–]Pacers3Hills1George 31 指標 1 天前

This is what I hate about advanced stats and such. If you want to see how good a player is at defense, forget the advanced stats and just watch the dude play. Kawhi is still a top wing defender by any account if you watch him. These defensive stats are too vague and have too many variables that can screw with them.

這就是為什麼我討厭高階數據的原因。如果你想知道一名球員的防守究竟有多棒，那就別看這些數據了，好好去看他打球把。只要你看了倫納德打球，你就會發現他仍然是一名頂尖的側翼防守球員。這些防守數據太含糊不清了，其中包含了太多其他因素，你不能單從數據上的不足便否定球員們的表現。

[–]76ersImaginaryCam 98 指標 1 天前

What is even advanced about this stat

請問這項數據高階在了哪裡？

[–]ThunderDirectorPhiICoulson 73 指標 1 天前

IT HAS A % IN IT M8

有百分比符號。

[–][CHI] Derrick RoseiPissVelvet 10 指標 1 天前

DFG% is simple yes but it"s actually quite advanced relative to the difficulty in which it"s obtained. Shot data must include "defender", and this isn"t possible on a large scale without SportsVU player tracking. This sort of stat wasn"t available before SportsVU

雖然DFG%（防守對象命中率）從表明上看起來很普通，但是實際上它是非常難以獲得的，考慮到這一點，你可以說這項數據很高階。因為這項命中率的前提是球員必須面對特定的防守人，所以直到SportsVU（球員追蹤分析系統）出現之前，大規模獲得這一數據都是不可能的。直到SportsVU這項技術出現後，這類數據才誕生。

註：SportVU系統研發誕生於2005年，最初是用于軍事領域的，由以色列科學家米基·塔米爾發明，他是導彈追蹤以及光學方面的世界級專家。如今它已經被逐漸地運用於體育領域。這套科技系統對於追蹤球員、分析比賽數據整合分析、進行專業項目的數據統計都有極大幫助。

[–]ThunderDirectorPhiICoulson 2 指標 1 天前

OP, where does Steven Adams rank on this list or maybe just among all centers? I"d love a link to browse over this data.

樓主，請問亞當斯的這項數據在榜單中排名第幾，或者僅僅在中鋒中排名第幾？有這項數據的鏈接嗎，我想具體看看。

[–]Warriorspowerfuse[S] 4 指標 1 天前

Adams has a -0.6% differential right now.

目前亞當斯的防守對象命中率與通常命中率差別是-0.6%。

[–]Spurshoopdummy 8 指標 1 天前

Now that I actually looked at the list, and used all positions, you can"t be taking that list very seriously, right? I mean, look at the top of that list. There are some atrocious defenders in there. I do, get what you are saying overall, but that list is gross.

現在我仔細看了這份榜單，並看了所有位置上的排名，看上去你並不能把它當回事兒。因為有些蹩腳的防守者居然出現在了靠前的位置，我知道樓主你想表達的意思，但是這份榜單的說服力真的很差。

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