歲月無情！27歲以上球星里誰最可能終身無冠？ 甜瓜威少最被看衰？

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歲月無情！27歲以上球星里誰最可能終身無冠？ 甜瓜威少最被看衰？

Which superstar over 27 will retire ringless? (self.nba)

哪一個年過27的超級球星會無冠而終？

Some standout players over 27 who don"t have a ring currently are:

Chris Paul

Carmelo Anthony

Kevin Durant

James harden

Russel Westbrook

And others

Durant has the highest probability of actually reaching the finals, whereas Carmelo probably has the lowest chance.

目前年過27且沒有冠軍的一些傑出的球員有：

保羅

安東尼

杜蘭特

哈登

威斯布魯克

其餘人等

杜蘭特實際上進總決賽的可能性是最高的，而安東尼可能幾率是最低的。

[–][BOS] James Youngwalterdog12 252 points 1 day ago

Carmelo has gotta be the clear leader.

很明顯安東尼將成為無冠群群主。

[–]KnicksMultiAtomicBunny 81 points 1 day ago

I think Carmelo can coming off the bench for a team built around KP when melo is like 37/38

我覺得當安東尼37/38歲的時候，他能成為圍繞波爾津吉斯建隊的板凳球員。

[–]Warriorspotentialz 43 points 1 day ago

Porzingod dishes it out to Carmelo who steps back and hits the buzzer beater in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, the crowd goes wild.

波神把球傳出來，安東尼接球後撤步命中總決賽G7的絕殺，觀眾都暴走了。

[–]WarriorsTJonny15 160 points 1 day ago

As the Knicks lose by 50

觀眾暴走是因為尼克斯輸了50分。

[–]KnicksMultiAtomicBunny 26 points 21 hours ago

Tbf if the crowd cant support us when we lose by 50, they shouldn"t support us when we lose by 49!

尼蜜：平胸而論，如果我尼輸50分時球迷不能支持我們的話，那我尼輸49分時他們也別回來支持我們！

[–][DEN] LaPhonso EllisC0ldsummers 38 points 1 day ago

Not gonna lie. I can see CP3 and Westbrook winning a chip near the end of their careers, coming off the bench or being a mentor to a young pg( Cp3 especially). While I"m on the Durant hate train, it"s plausible to see him win one in the next 1-3 seasons. Harden on the other hand is harder to tell, we"ve seen the Warriors stay in the top 4 of the West one year, and then top dogs the next, maybe Houston can do the same at some point. Melo is the one with the least chance.

絕不忽悠，我預計保羅和威少會在職業生涯末期拿到冠軍的，化身板凳球員或者成為年輕控衛的導師（尤其是保羅）。雖然我也是杜黑專車成員之一，貌似很可能在未來的1-3個賽季他會奪得冠軍的；另一方面，哈登就很難說了，我們曾見識了勇士從西部前4一年後就蛻變為西部領頭羊，可能在某個時候火箭也可以複製這樣的成就；安東尼是概率最小的那個了。

[–]ChengBolo 45 points 1 day ago

Westbrook might follow Iverson imo, once the athleticism goes they don"t have much to give a team off the bench.

我覺得威少可能會走艾弗森的老路，一旦運動能力喪失了，作為板凳球員能給球隊帶來的貢獻就不多了。

[–]Buckstheconfuserx2[S] 7 points 1 day ago

Exactly, none of these players can actually carry their team to the finals, except maybe harden. Some new super teams are gonna have to form

確實，實際上這些球員沒有一個能扛起他們的球隊進總決賽，可能除了哈登可以。一些新的超級球隊將會組建出來。

[–]NBA25_Star_General_ 37 points 1 day ago

Chris Paul (31yo). His championship window is closing -- this could very well be the last year of Paul-Griffin-Jordan-Reddick. They are the second best team in the West. Their likely path to the title:

Round 1: Portland or Memphis

Round 2: Golden State or San Antonio

Round 3: San Antonio or Golden State

Round 4: Cleveland Cavaliers

Blake Griffin can"t stay healthy it seems, they"ve never reached the WCF, and they have to probably go through GSW, the Spurs, and the Cavs to win a title. He"s also 31. I just don"t see it happening. 10% Chance.

保羅（31歲了），他的奪冠之門正在關閉——這非常可能是保羅-格里芬-小喬丹-雷迪克組隊的最後一年。他們是西部第二強的球隊，他們可能的冠軍之路是：

第一輪：開拓者或者灰熊

第二輪：勇士或者馬刺

第三輪：馬刺或者勇士

第四輪：騎士

看起來格里芬沒法保持健康，他們從沒進過西決，而且他們可能必須要邁過勇士，馬刺和騎士後才能贏得冠軍。而且保羅也31了，我只是覺沒啥希望，保羅10%的概率。

Carmelo Anthony (32yo). Oldest of the group, and on the worst team. On the wrong timetable with Porzingis. The Knicks lack assets. They"re not good enough to beat the Cavs. His wife acts in NYC and doesn"t want to leave.

His only shot at a title is leaving NYC and joining someone in the West. The Cavs don"t have the cap room for him, and no one is beating the Cavs except maybe Toronto, who don"t have the room for him. And the West is a bloodbath. He has always chosen money over winning -- I doubt he"ll take a serious paycut to play on a contender. 1% Chance.

安東尼（32歲），這幾位里最年長的，而且球隊也是最爛的。在錯誤的時候遇到了波爾津吉斯，尼克斯缺少實力，他們沒強到能擊敗騎士，甜瓜的妻子演藝事業在紐約而且不想離開紐約。

他唯一奪冠的機會就是離開尼克斯，加入西部的某支球隊。騎士沒有給他的薪資空間，而且可能除了猛龍，東部沒有球隊能擊敗騎士，但猛龍也沒有空間。而西部競爭慘烈，甜瓜一直都是把錢看得比贏球重要的——我對於他會為了在一支有力爭冠球隊打球而接受大幅度降薪表示懷疑。甜瓜1%的概率。

Kevin Durant (28yo). The best player on the best team, with his age and prime matching that of his fellow players that have reached two straight finals. This team is insane, and Durant is insane. They are monsters on both ends of the floor, all in their mid-to-late 20s, and will compete for titles for another 4-5 years.

It is almost inconceivable that they don"t win at least one title in that span, and the Spurs/Clippers/OKC/Houston are quite frankly not on their level imo. The Cavs are tough, but I can"t see them beating GSW every year. Draymond"s suspension and Curry not being 100% still pushed the series to the final seconds of the 7th game. CLE isn"t as strong defensively and doesn"t have that many two-way players. Love, Irving, and Frye are still liabilities in my mind. 99% Chance.

杜蘭特（28歲），最強球隊里的最好球員，以他的年紀尚在巔峰，加上他那些連續兩次進入總決賽的隊友一起就是強強聯合，這支球隊太變態了，而且杜蘭特也很變態。在場上攻防兩端他們都是怪獸級別的，所有球員都是25-30歲之間，在接下來的4-5年都會是奪冠者。

在接下來幾年裡他們一冠都拿不到幾乎是沒可能的，而且我覺得馬刺/快船/雷霆/火箭很顯然不是他們這一級別的。騎士是塊硬骨頭，但我不覺得他們每年都能擊敗勇士。追夢格林的停賽和庫里不是最佳狀態時仍然把系列賽拖到了第七場的最後階段，騎士防守沒那麼堅挺，而且沒有很多攻防俱佳的球員，在我心中樂福，歐文，弗萊防守仍然是拖後腿的。阿杜概率99%。

James Harden (27yo). Harden is amazing, and I LOVE Morey!!! Going all-in with D"Antoni was fucking awesome, I"m rooting for these guys. The West is probably too tough for them to get out of with their shit D (excluding Patrick "Spider-man" Beverley sticking to his defenders).

I think this is a year where they build the Houston brand of Moreyball, and their FOs ability to create cap space with great flexible contracts let"s them land any potential big fish out there.

Honestly, the biggest issue is that Harden is 27 and his prime matches up with GSW"s entire core"s prime. I would have way more confidence in Harden reaching the finals if they were in the East as LeBron (maybe but probably not) fades. Karl Malone was ballin" until like 37, so let"s not hold our breathes.

I could see this team being the second best team in the West next season -- it"s just hard to see anyone getting past GSW, especially when they"re always the #1 seed. It usually means you have to beat some combination of the Warriors, Spurs, Thunder, and Cavs to win a title.

Still, I like what Houston is doing, and Harden is a wizard. 20% Chance.

哈登（27歲），哈登很棒，而且我愛死莫雷了！！！在德安東尼的指教下火力全開真是太TM爽了，我支持這些傢伙。以他們稀爛的防守（還是有帕特里克「蜘蛛俠」貝弗利纏住對手的情況下），突圍西部對她們來說可能太艱難了。

我覺得這是一年他們打造火箭魔球名號的一年，而且他們的制服組以非常靈活的合同製造薪金空間的能力讓他們能釣到任何天賦滿滿的大魚。

實話說，最大的問題是哈登27了，而且他的巔峰和勇士整體核心的巔峰撞車了，如果他們深處東部隨著詹姆斯的下滑（可能但也可能不會），我會更有信心哈登能進總決賽。卡爾馬龍37歲尚且能飯，所以大家別急慢慢等吧。

我預計下個賽季這支球隊會是西部第二強隊——只是很難預見任何球隊能幹掉勇士，尤其是他們一直都是一號種子。這通常都意味著你要擊敗勇士，馬刺，雷霆以及騎士這些組合才能贏得冠軍。

但我還是喜歡火箭現在所做的，而且哈登就是個巫師，奪冠幾率20%。

Russell Westbrook (28yo). Triple double machine. The biggest physical freak at his position in NBA history. A very good team around him.

I really can"t see him winning, especially with his commitment to OKC, and the super extension he will get offered in the new CBA. This team isn"t good enough to win, and Westbrook"s shot selection is terrible and his crunch time possessions are predictable ISOs in traffic without the ability to shoot the 3-ball well.

There"s no way this team gets by everyone in the West, then past LeBron, and I don"t see him leaving OKC to chase rings. 2% Chance

Conclusion: I think Carmelo and Westbrook have the highest percentage odds of finishing ringless.

威少（28歲），三雙機器，NBA歷史上身體素質最變態的一號位。有一支非常不錯的球隊。

我真的無法預見他能奪冠，尤其是他對雷霆的承諾，而且在新的勞資合同下他會得到一份超級續約合同。這支球隊沒強到能奪冠，而且威少的投籃選擇很糟糕，他關鍵時刻的招數是可以預測的在人堆中單打，沒有投好三分的能力。

他的球隊在西部能贏每個球隊是不可能的，之後還要邁過詹姆斯這關，而且我預計他不會為了追求冠軍離開雷霆。奪冠幾率2%。

結論：我覺得安東尼和威少有最大幾率無冠而終。

[–][CHI] Metta World Peaceshotrob 23 points 1 day ago

All of them except Durant.

除了杜蘭特，這些都會無冠而終。

[–]BulletsPower-Fantastic 3 points 15 hours ago

End of thread lol.

樓上終結此貼，哈哈哈。

[–]pmedthrowaway 14 points 1 day ago

Mel0rings

零戒瓜

[–]Celticsyung_iron 46 points 1 day ago

Not a superstar anymore but Dwight Howard

已不是超級球星了，但是提名霍華德。

[–]twhockey99 48 points 1 day ago

Am I crazy to think that harden will end up with a ring at the end of the day? I really think he will.

我覺得哈登最終會拿到冠軍的，我是不是瘋了？我真的覺得他會拿到的。

[–][IND] Rik SmitsKyleRaynerGotSweg 24 points 1 day ago

Not at all, dude can do so much and when you put the right pieces around him he can definitely take a team all the way.

一點也沒覺得你瘋了，他這麼能幹，而且圍繞他建隊的拼圖是對的人的話，他肯定能帶領球隊所向披靡。

[–]Buckstheconfuserx2[S] 20 points 1 day ago

Gonna go out on a limb and say that team wise harden is better than Durant and Westbrook.

我要冒死說，從球隊的角度來看，哈登比杜蘭特和威少更強。

[–]Spurskcheng686 21 points 1 day ago

I would take Durant just because of his ability to score from anywhere, but its close.

我會選杜蘭特只是因為他有能在任何地方得分的能力，但這兩個選誰都會糾結。

[–]RaptorsCenturionPrime 13 points 1 day ago

I mean Durant can do that as well but of course not as good at playmaking but a much better defender and more talented offensively. I like Harden but i still think Durant is better.

我覺得杜蘭特也可以那樣做，但當然組織能力沒有那麼強，但防守更好而且進攻更加有才，我喜歡哈登但我還是覺得杜蘭特更強。

[–][IND] Rik SmitsKyleRaynerGotSweg 18 points 1 day ago

I don"t disagree, Harden really has a way of forming to the team around him and working well within a system. Obviously Westbrook is a great playmaker as well, but honestly if I had to pick one to put on my team it"d be Harden. Dude can fit anywhere and still do his thing.

我不能苟同，哈登圍繞他建隊真的有一套的，而且在體系中運行良好，很顯然威少也是個優秀的組織者，但實話說，如果我必須選擇一個放到我的球隊的話，我會選哈登，他任何地方都是無縫連接而且仍能發揮他的作用。

[–]Buckstheconfuserx2[S] 26 points 1 day ago

I believe harden has it in him. He has the team around him. They have the highest winning streak in the league at 10 right now, and they also beat golden state.

我覺得哈登命中有冠，哈登有一支圍繞著他組建的球隊，他們擁有現在聯盟最長的10連勝的紀錄，而且他們也擊敗了勇士。

–]NBASytherus 11 points 1 day ago*

And their team as currently constructed has a small shot of winning title.

Great way to maximize what Harden does, get to ~55 win territory (which does give you a chance to win a title). Just don"t see them as good enough defensively against elite teams. Think they can cobble a decent enough defense for regular season with Ariza/Capela/Beverley. Don"t see it for 7 games against Cavs/W"s.

而且以他們已組建的球隊陣容，火箭會有小小的幾率贏得總冠軍。

很好的最大化發揮哈登的作用，大概能拿到55勝的戰績（這確實有機會拿到總冠軍）。只是他們對陣頂級球隊時看不到他們打出足夠好的防守，覺得有著阿里扎/卡佩拉/貝弗利的火箭在常規賽能打出足夠漂亮的防守表現，但對陣騎士/勇士的七場季後賽防守估計沒這麼好看。

[–]kyro7 5 points 1 day ago

KD is the only one there getting a ring any time soon, so I can picture the others being ringless.

杜蘭特是這些球員里唯一能很快拿到冠軍的球員，所以我可以想像到其他球員無冠而終的畫面。

[–]Spursnathan8999 19 points 1 day ago

Durant will almost certainly will get one after decimating a contender and deciding to go to the favorites. Besides that Harden is the only one that has any chance unless some of those players go to a different team.

杜蘭特毀掉一支冠軍爭奪者的球隊，決定加盟冠軍大熱門後，幾乎可以肯定會拿到冠軍的。此外哈登是唯一個有機會的，除非這幾位中有些球員加盟了其他球隊。

[–]Bullschitownbulls92 8 points 1 day ago

I think Russell Westbrook. I mean he"s stuck on a team that is good not great and as he gets older his athleticism will just decrease

我覺得無冠的會是威少，他鎖死在了一支出色但不夠偉大的球隊，隨著年齡的增長，他的運動能力會下滑的。

[–]MemesOnMemes 13 points 1 day ago

Melo will for sure. Sadly.

肯定是安東尼了，很遺憾。

[–]Buckstheconfuserx2[S] 20 points 1 day ago

Fun fact, Melo has never made the NBA first team

有趣的是，安東尼從沒進過一陣。

[–][IND] Rik SmitsKyleRaynerGotSweg 50 points 1 day ago

Tends to happen when you enter the league at the same time as the GOAT small forward and top 3 player of all time.

當你進入聯盟時，隨之而來的是史上第一小前鋒以及歷史前三的球員，就會出現沒進過一陣的情況了。

[–]KnicksE-Miles 11 points 1 day ago

same with paul pierce and pau gasol. melo is that tier of player. shouldn"t be surprising.

同理與皮爾斯和加嫂一樣，甜瓜是那一檔的球員，沒什麼好驚訝的。

[–]Warriorsjohnny_yogurt 3 points 21 hours ago

Westbrook 100% will never win a ring. Melo and cp3 have a banana boat shot coming their way

威少100%肯定會一冠也拿不到，安東尼和保羅將有一次香蕉船組團的機會。

[–]Cavaliersmonstars12 3 points 20 hours ago

CP3 will get one, unlike Melo, CP3 willing to join a championship level team, and he can contribute in many different ways in a championship run.

保羅會拿到冠軍的，不像甜瓜，保羅會加入一支冠軍級別的球隊，而且他的奪冠之旅能通過不同的方式來為球隊做貢獻。

[–]slyp85 3 points 18 hours ago

Melo, for sure. I think CP3 gets a ring like Gary Payton did. Not being the main star but still a contributing member.

James harden, and Westbrook still have time. Although if Russ can"t win with Durant on his team, I"m not sure if he will ever have a player as good KD.

肯定是甜瓜，我覺得保羅會像佩頓那樣拿到一冠，不是主力球星但仍然是一個有所貢獻的成員。

哈登和威少還有的是時間。如果威少有杜蘭特的時候還奪不了冠，我不確定是否他還會擁有像杜蘭特這麼強的隊友的時候了。

[–][SAS] Kawhi LeonardNoteful 2 points 1 day ago

Carmelo Anthony. At this point if he does win a ring, it will be years later, and off the bench from some team.

安東尼，如果他確實拿到冠軍了，那也是多年之後的時了，而且是以某支球隊的板凳球員身份拿到的。

[–]Raptorssaintscanucks 2 points 21 hours ago

Melo, Paul and Westbrook will never win a ring

甜瓜，保羅和威少都會無冠而終。

[–]TimberwolvesArcanePudding 4 points 1 day ago

I feel like Westbrook is the type of guy to not win one in his prime, but stays on OKC his entire career and wins one in his last few seasons as a veteran coming off the bench. By that time OKC will have some more young stars to bring the team a chip

我感覺威少是那種在巔峰拿不到總冠軍的那類球員，但整個職業生涯都會呆在雷霆，在最後的幾個賽季作為板凳老兵拿到一冠，到那時雷霆會有一些更年輕的球星帶領球隊贏得冠軍。

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