大限將至，聯利團將何去何從？

根據安理會2016年9月份決議，聯合國賴比瑞亞代表團（以下簡稱聯利團）的維和行動授權將於2016年12月31號到期。

大限將至，聯利團該何去何從？

聯合國安理會於紐約時間12月2日上午11點03分舉行第7824次會議，重點討論賴比瑞亞問題，會議雖沒有啟動投票程序，若仔細解讀聯合國官網發布的消息，或許能對聯利團的未來有所猜測。

01 聯合國維和行動部態度

按照安理會程序，首先由負責維和行動的聯合國副秘書長拉德蘇（Hervé Ladsous）向15個理事國代表介紹聯利團的基本情況：

He underlined that the country remained stable and that since thesecurity transition in June this year, there had been no incident seriousenough to warrant an armed response from the UN mission in the country, knownas UNMIL.

他指出，根據聯利團報告，自2016年6月向賴比瑞亞政府移交安保任務之後，沒有事件引發聯利團武力介入。

However, sustaining the gains made will require continued and greaterinvestment in the security services, as well as commensurate improvements inthe justice and corrections sectors。

但是，要維持目前平穩現狀，聯合國需要在安保方面持續不斷的投入，司法和懲戒方面也面臨類似局面。

Mr. Ladsous further reported thatthe political environment in the west African country remained dominated bypreparations for presidential and legislative elections, scheduled for October2017, and that the next President』s inauguration in January 2018 would mark ahistoric milestone for Liberia』s democracy.

拉德蘇還提到，賴比瑞亞將按計劃於2017年10月進行大選，其政治環境依賴於總統競選和選舉立法的準備工作。下任總統將於2018年1月宣布就職，屆時將是賴比瑞亞民主史上的里程碑事件。

What happens next year, therefore, will be critical: it will demonstratewhether the foundations of peace built since the conflict ended 13 years agoare strong enough to be sustained,」 he said, underlining the need to ensurethat measures are put in place now to deliver a free, fair, transparent andcredible elections.

即將到來的2017年將是關鍵的一年，也是檢驗聯利團十三年的維和成果是否堅固的試金石。他還強調，聯合國目前採取的措施需要保證選舉的公平公正和透明可信。

02 秘書長方案

Secretary-General had outlined three possible options for UNMIL』sfuture: withdrawing and establishing a successor mission; maintaining thestatus quo; or continuing the Mission』s drawdown.

聯合國秘書長潘基文向安理會概括了聯利團未來的三種方案：

1. Withdrawing and establishing a successor mission;

完全撤出，樹立成功任務區典範

2. Maintaining the status quo;

維持現狀

3. Continuing its drawdown.

繼續裁撤，縮小規模

Emphasizing that Liberia should remain on the Council』s agenda throughthe installation of the next administration; he said it was essential to retainsome capacity to respond should stability deteriorate.

拉德蘇強調在下一屆政府上台前，賴比瑞亞局勢應當繼續在安理會討論範圍內，保留一定的維和力量以應對形勢惡化是非常必要的。

UNMIL was now in the last stretch of its life-cycle, after which Liberiawould take up its responsibility as a sovereign State, he added.

他補充到，聯利團使命周期已走到最後一步，賴比瑞亞政府將承擔一個主權國家的責任。

03 聯合國建設和平委員會觀點

Sweden』s representative, speaking on behalf of the Vice-Chair of thePeacebuilding Commission, noted that the root causes of Liberia』s conflictremained unresolved and that further implementation of the roadmap for nationalreconciliation was needed.

瑞典代表，代表聯合國建設和平委員會副主席指出，造成賴比瑞亞內戰的根源仍未解決，國內和平路線圖需要進一步落實。

Strong political leadership is required to fully and comprehensivelyaddress reconciliation in Liberia,」 he said, adding: 「Building social cohesionrequires addressing historical inequalities, unequal access to resources andpower.」

賴比瑞亞目前需要能夠全方位貫徹和平協議的強勢政府，此外，建立更加團結的社會也需要重視歷史上的不平等以及資源與權力的不均衡。

The aftermath of the Ebola outbreak was one of the factors that had putthe Liberian economy under stress, he said, citing a negative?0.5 per centeconomic growth projected for 2016 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

他還說，根據國際貨幣基金組織數據，自埃博拉爆發是造成賴比瑞亞經濟持續低迷的原因之一，該國2016年經濟增長率只有-0.5%。

Noting the economic challenges brought by the Ebola outbreak and that 63per cent of the country』s children were out of school, as well as residualpeacebuilding tasks in 2017 which required sustained international support, heunderscored that these and other factors should be kept in mind whenconsidering the future of the UN presence in Liberia, especially given theupcoming electoral period.

埃博拉疫情造成賴比瑞亞面臨諸多經濟問題的同時，該國63%的兒童已輟學，政府在2017年仍然需要穩定的國際支持，他認為，國際社會在考慮聯利團未來問題時，應意識到這個國家面臨的嚴峻的經濟和教育問題，尤其是在即將到來的大選期間。

04 聯利團未來預測

通過聯合國副秘書長和聯合國建設和平委員會高官針對賴比瑞亞現狀和聯利團的未來的觀點，大概可以猜測出以下結論：

1. 聯合國不想繼續在賴比瑞亞繼續投入；

2. 還要維護過去13年的和平建設成果；

3.保證賴比瑞亞大選的平穩進行，下屆政府安全上台；

4.匆忙完全撤出，有匆忙和莽撞嫌疑。

由此來看，採取第三種方案，繼續縮小任務區的規模，貌似是皆大歡喜的決定。與此同時，這也符合聯合國作為當今最大的國際組織，其「妥協與平衡」文化精髓展現的淋漓盡致。

05 賴比瑞亞政府觀點

當然，作為最重要的當事國，我們還要看看賴比瑞亞常駐聯合國代表對聯利團的去留問題怎麼看：

Liberia』s representative emphasized that determining how a transitionfrom a full peacekeeping operation could occur without undermining the progressachieved was the defining question of the Security Council』s current engagementwith his country. While noting that theGovernment proposed an extension of UNMIL』s mandate for a 「definitive」 periodof one year, he acknowledged concerns associated with the request for anextension, and outlined ways in which Liberia intended to meet development andsecurity targets.

賴比瑞亞常駐聯合國代表強調，聯利團的裁撤和過渡需要在不影響聯合國安理會當前已在賴比瑞亞已經取得的和平成果的前提下進行。雖然賴比瑞亞政府已提議將聯利團授權延期一年，這一「確定」的期限，同時他也概括了賴比瑞亞將如何實現安全與發展目標的計劃。

They included deploying 8,000 police across the country and completingtraining facilities for thousands of immigration officers. Liberia could not afford another shock to itsrecovery, he stressed, adding that another year of UNMIL was needed to deterthat looming risk.

這項計劃包括在全國部署八千警力，完成上千民移民官的培訓，他又強調，賴比瑞亞的復甦再經不起反覆，將聯利團任務期亟需延長一年，以降低迫在眉睫的風險。

從以上賴比瑞亞駐聯合國代表的表態，我們也許可以讀出以下信息：

1.聯利團撤走不能影響利國民族復興大業；

2. 撤走一旦出事，聯合國脫不了干係；

3. 利國復興計劃，詳細周密，箭在弦上；

4.再呆一年，解決選舉燃眉之急；

5.聯合國，不能走，政府需要你，賴比瑞亞人民需要你！！！

06 結語

利國安全穩定，經濟騰飛何時實現？利國選舉走向何方？聯利團何去何從？