數據創業時代

在今天，擁有了數據，就是搶佔了先機。

當今世界最寶貴的資源不再是石油，而是數據

The world』s most valuable resource is no longer oil, but data

譯者：Jenny_Peng

A NEW commodity spawns a lucrative, fast-growing industry, prompting antitrust regulators to step in to restrain those who control its flow. A century ago, the resource in question was oil. Now similar concerns are being raised by the giants that deal in data, the oil of the digital era. These titans—Alphabet (Google』s parent company), Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—look unstoppable. They are the five most valuable listed firms in the world. Their profits are surging: they collectively racked up over $25bn in net profit in the first quarter of 2017. Amazon captures half of all dollars spent online in America. Google and Facebook accounted for almost all the revenue growth in digital advertising in America last year.

有一種全新商品孕育了一個快速發展且利潤豐厚的產業，這使反壟斷監管者不得不介入以約束商品流動的控制者。上個世紀，存在相同問題的資源是石油。如今，數據就是數字時代的石油，數據交易巨頭們同樣產生了擔憂。這些企業巨頭看起來不可阻擋，如Alphabet（Google的母公司）、亞馬遜、蘋果、臉書和微軟。它們是五大世界上估價最高的上市公司。其利潤激增：2017年第一季度它們的凈利潤加起來超過250億美元。美國的網路消費額有一半都來自亞馬遜。谷歌和臉書幾乎佔據美國去年所有數字廣告的增長收益。

Such dominance has prompted calls for the tech giants to be broken up, as Standard Oil was in the early 20th century. This newspaper has argued against such drastic action in the past. Size alone is not a crime. The giants』 success has benefited consumers. Few want to live without Google』s search engine, Amazon』s one-day delivery or Facebook』s newsfeed. Nor do these firms raise the alarm when standard antitrust tests are applied. Far from gouging consumers, many of their services are free (users pay, in effect, by handing over yet more data). Take account of offline rivals, and their market shares look less worrying. And the emergence of upstarts like Snapchat suggests that new entrants can still make waves.

這種市場地位引發人們對呼籲分解科技巨頭企業，就像二十年代早期分解美國美孚石油公司一樣。本報（《經濟學人》）過去反對過如此激進的行為。企業規模龐大無罪可言。這些巨頭的成功同時也是消費者受益。所有人都離不開谷歌的搜索引擎，亞馬遜的次日到貨，以及臉書的新聞推送。這些企業在標準反壟斷審查實行後，也未引起警覺。他們並沒有對消費者漫天要價，許多服務都是免費的（實際上，用戶也會買單，只不過方式是不斷發回數據）。如果考慮到線下競爭者，他們的市場份額並沒有龐大到那麼令人擔憂。此外，新興創業公司的出現，如Snapchat，表明後來者也能「興風作浪」。

But there is cause for concern. Internet companies』 control of data gives them enormous power. Old ways of thinking about competition, devised in the era of oil, look outdated in what has come to be called the 「data economy」 . A new approach is needed.

但是，擔憂是有原因的。互聯網公司對數據的操控賦予了它們無限權利。所謂的「數據經濟」已經到來，石油時代產生的對競爭的傳統觀點已經過時。現在需要新途徑新方法。

Quantity has a quality all its own

數量中自有質量

What has changed? Smartphones and the internet have made data abundant, ubiquitous and far more valuable. Whether you are going for a run, watching TV or even just sitting in traffic, virtually every activity creates a digital trace—more raw material for the data distilleries. As devices from watches to cars connect to the internet, the volume is increasing: some estimate that a self-driving car will generate 100 gigabytes per second. Meanwhile, artificial-intelligence (AI) techniques such as machine learning extract more value from data. Algorithms can predict when a customer is ready to buy, a jet-engine needs servicing or a person is at risk of a disease. Industrial giants such as GE and Siemens now sell themselves as data firms.

有哪些東西發生了改變？智能手機和互聯網使數據變得豐富繁多，無所不在，價值更大。無論你是在跑步，看電視，或甚至堵在路上，幾乎所有活動都製造了數字痕迹——數據處理庫里的原始數據愈發龐大。隨著各種設備都連接到互聯網，如手錶，汽車，數據的容量也在增加。據估計，一輛自動駕駛汽車每秒將會產生100千兆位元組。同時，人工智慧（AI）技術挖掘數據的價值更大，比如機器學習。演算法可以預測顧客何時想購物，噴射發動機何時需要維修，以及人類何時有患病的風險。包括美國通用和西門子在內的工業巨頭，現在都自我宣傳為數據公司。

This abundance of data changes the nature of competition. Technology giants have always benefited from network effects: the more users Facebook signs up, the more attractive signing up becomes for others. With data there are extra network effects. By collecting more data, a firm has more scope to improve its products, which attracts more users, generating even more data, and so on. The more data Tesla gathers from its self-driving cars, the better it can make them at driving themselves—part of the reason the firm, which sold only 25,000 cars in the first quarter, is now worth more than GM, which sold 2.3m. Vast pools of data can thus act as protective moats.

數據的龐大改變了競爭的性質。技術巨頭企業總是能從網路效應受益：註冊臉書的用戶越多，就會有越來越多的人被吸引去註冊。由於數據的存在，網路效應更加凸顯。一個企業通過收集更多的數據，能獲得更大空間改善產品，這相反又能吸引更多用戶，產生更多數據，以此類推。特斯拉從其自動駕駛汽車獲取的數據越多，它就能生產出更好的自動駕駛汽車——這也是為什麼該公司第一季度只銷售了25,000輛車，其股價卻超過銷售額達到23萬輛的美國通用的部分原因。由此可見，龐大的數據池也可以充當護城河。

Access to data also protects companies from rivals in another way. The case for being sanguine about competition in the tech industry rests on the potential for incumbents to be blindsided by a startup in a garage or an unexpected technological shift. But both are less likely in the data age. The giants』 surveillance systems span the entire economy: Google can see what people search for, Facebook what they share, Amazon what they buy. They own app stores and operating systems, and rent out computing power to startups. They have a 「God』s eye view」 of activities in their own markets and beyond. They can see when a new product or service gains traction, allowing them to copy it or simply buy the upstart before it becomes too great a threat. Many think Facebook』s $22bn purchase in 2014 of WhatsApp, a messaging app with fewer than 60 employees, falls into this category of 「shoot-out acquisitions」 that eliminate potential rivals. By providing barriers to entry and early-warning systems, data can stifle competition.

此外，數據准入也以另外一種方式保護公司受到競爭者的傷害。如果在科技產業中對競爭持樂觀態度，很可能導致大公司被創業公司攻其不備，在停車場先啟動，或是通過其意外的科技轉向被搶佔先機。但是這兩種情況都不大可能在數據時代發生。巨頭企業的監測系統橫跨整個經濟體。谷歌可以看見人們的搜索內容，臉書可以看見用戶的分享內容，亞馬遜可以看見用戶購買的商品。這些企業不僅有應用程序商店和操作系統，還將計算能力租給創業公司。它們擁有「上帝視角」，能看見其市場及其他市場中的一舉一動。他們清楚什麼時候一種新產品或服務開始受歡迎，然後因此模仿或直接在創業公司變成威脅之前將其收購。許多人認為，臉書2014年以220億美元收購員工不到60的消息應用程序WhatsApp，屬於消滅潛在競爭對手的「槍戰收購」。通過對準入設置障礙和使用預警信號系統，數據可以抑制競爭。

來源：譯言

【寬客網路課堂】性價比最高的課程：金融量化分析以Matlab為工具

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