普京「大帝」的2016：無法低調的成功和孤獨求敗的苦澀！

回顧2016年，誰是最大贏家？可能非俄羅斯總統普京莫屬了。彷彿開掛了一樣，普京這一年取得了以前多年無法想像的勝利，也著實讓西方瞠目結舌，逼得快下台的奧巴馬使出了驅逐俄外交官的狠招；但年底的一系列悲劇，也讓普京品嘗到現實的苦澀。

Back in 2016, who is the biggest winner? May the Russian President vladimir putin. Seems open to hang, putin made a year ago this unimaginable victory for many years, also makes western gaping, drove fast down Mr Obama went the expulsion of Russian diplomats wouldn; But at the end of the year, a series of tragedy, also let Mr Putin taste the bitter reality.

2016年，對普京來說，最大的戰略轉圜，莫過於美國大選特朗普上台。在世界認為希拉里鐵定當選的情況下，普京是特朗普最堅定的支持者。他公開誇讚特朗普「非常聰明，才華橫溢」。特朗普也回誇普京是一位「不同於這個國家領導人的領袖」，還說他「備受推崇」，看來特朗普執政下美俄關係應能翻開新的一頁。

In 2016, for Mr Putin, the biggest strategic fit, trump stage than U.S. presidential election. Under the condition of the world think that Hillary Clinton will be elected, Mr Putin"s trump"s strongest supporters. He publicly praised the trump "very smart, talented". Trump also praised Mr Putin"s back is a "leader" is different from the country"s leaders, also said that he "respected", seems to trump the ruling u.s.-russian relations should be able to turn a new page.

用兵敘利亞，也讓普京開始收穫果實。在俄羅斯空襲的幫助下，一度岌岌可危的敘利亞巴沙爾政權開始收復阿勒頗等戰略要地，政權穩固當已不成問題。敘利亞也成為俄羅斯對付西方的一張王牌，使普京在中東博弈中佔據上風。

Lily: Syria, also let Mr Putin began to harvest the fruit. Under the help of air strikes in Russia, once the Syrian regime of bashar al-assad began to recover at aleppo strategic position, such as solidity when no problem. Syria is a trump card in the west as Russia, putin in the Middle East have the upper hand in the game.

俄土關係去年一度劍拔弩張，土打下俄戰鬥機，更讓普京蒙受恥辱；但今年因土耳其認錯出現戲劇性轉折，土耳其政變更促使埃爾多安頻繁向普京示好。6月普京對中國的國事訪問，更使中俄關係漸入佳境。

Russian soil relationship once at swords" points last year, soil lay a Russian fighter jets, more let Mr Putin humiliation; But this year because of mistake appear dramatic twist, Turkey, Turkey"s coup more prompted Mr Erdogan is frequent to Mr Putin. Mr Putin"s state visit to China in June, more make the china-russia relations began in earnest.

在東歐，新當選的摩爾多瓦、保加利亞總統都被認為是親俄人物，主張加強與俄羅斯關係，反對西方制裁；在西歐，與普京私交默契的法前總理菲永，已經完成黨內提名，很可能明年成為法國新總統。

In eastern Europe, the newly elected President of moldova, Bulgaria is considered a pro-russian characters, strengthening relations with Russia, against western sanctions; In Western Europe, and the former prime minister, francois fillon, Mr Putin"s personal tacit understanding method, has completed the nomination, is likely to become France"s new President next year.

國內支持率居高不下，油價也終於開始有所回升，普京無疑志得意滿；但2016年年底的一系列悲劇，卻顯現了俄羅斯仍舊面臨的內憂外患。

Domestic high approval ratings, oil prices have finally started to also have rebounded, putin will undoubtedly complacency; A series of tragedy, but at the end of 2016, Russia still faces domestically.

12月19日，俄羅斯駐土耳其大使卡爾洛夫，在光天化日之下，被槍殺於土耳其首都安卡拉。兇手是一名土耳其防暴警察，他行兇後，還高呼 「不要忘記阿勒頗！不要忘記敘利亞！」等口號。在22日莫斯科舉行的葬禮上，普京被拍到眼含淚光，為卡爾洛夫獻上玫瑰。

On December 19, Russian ambassador to Turkey, Karl rove, in broad daylight, was shot and killed in Turkey"s capital Ankara. The killer is a Turkish riot police, after his crime, also shouted "don"t forget to aleppo! Don"t forget to Syria!" Slogans such as. At 22, the funeral held in Moscow, Mr Putin was photographed eye tears, give Karl rove roses.

三天後，一架俄羅斯軍機在黑海失事，機上93人全部身亡，其中包括去敘利亞慰問俄羅斯軍隊演出的俄國防部亞歷山德羅夫紅旗歌舞團60多名演員。這一天，正好也是蘇聯解體25周年。這個著名的俄羅斯歌舞團，本來春節後還將來北京國家大劇院演出！

Three days later, a Russian military aircraft crash in the black sea, killing all 93 people on board, including sympathy Russian army performance to Syria novy vzglyad Alexandra DE rove red flag song and dance more than 60 actor. On this day, at the right moment is the 25th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet union. This famous Russian song and dance, was also in the future Beijing national grand theatre performances after the Spring Festival!

從表面看，敘利亞讓俄羅斯掌握了與西方博弈的一個重要籌碼；但其實，俄羅斯也付出了慘重的代價：去年被土耳其打下了一架戰鬥機，今年又被土耳其人打死了一名大使，還掉了一架去敘利亞慰問演出的飛機。

On the surface, Syria to Russia have mastered and western game an important chip. But in fact, Russia has also paid a heavy price: a fighter by Turkey last year, this year was the Turkish killed a ambassador, restructure a plane to Syria sympathy performances.

出事的圖-154稱為「被詛咒的客機」，該機型自上世紀70年代初服役以來，共生產1000餘架，但已有約70架發生全毀事故。圖-154早就退出了商業運行，但俄羅斯軍方還在使用，原因也不外乎一個，囊中羞澀。

An accident figure - 154 referred to as the "cursed jet", since the aircraft to serve in the early 1970 s, produced more than 1000 aircraft, but has about 70 aircraft destroyed accidents. Tu - 154 would have run out of the business, but Russia"s military is still in use, the reason is nothing more than a, cash-strapped.

看似無限風光，萬人景仰，但外表強大的普京，俯瞰俄羅斯現實，內心應該也是複雜的。受油價總體偏低影響，俄羅斯財政困難，失業在增加，工資在減少，俄羅斯正處於20年來最嚴重的經濟蕭條，俄羅斯人以極大的忍耐力支持著總統，但總統卻難掩內心的落寞。

Seemingly unlimited scenery, ten thousand people admire, but looks strong putin, overlooking the Russian reality, heart should also is complex. Affected by low oil prices overall, Russia"s fiscal difficulties, unemployment rising, wages are falling, Russia is in the worst economic depression in 20 years, the Russian people with great endurance supports the President, but the President cannot hide the lonely heart.

數據更說明問題，2015年，俄羅斯GDP是1.31萬億美元，我們的廣東省是1.2萬億美元。如果撇開人民幣貶值因素，廣東經濟總量2016年應能超過俄羅斯。也就是說，普京執政16年，中國一個廣東省的GDP就已相當於俄羅斯。不知是該為廣東自豪，還是該為俄羅斯嘆息！

Data more telling, in 2015, Russia"s GDP was $1.31 trillion, we in guangdong province is $1.2 trillion. If the yuan depreciation factor, guangdong economy should be able to more than 2016 Russian. In other words, putin"s ruling for 16 years, the Chinese a Russia was equivalent to the GDP of guangdong province. Don"t know is should take pride in guangdong, or the sigh for Russia!

戰爭開始容易結束難，敘利亞未必就不會成為俄羅斯的泥潭。改革推進艱難，俄羅斯經濟否極泰來前路漫漫。一個強大的俄羅斯，從軍事上看很近，從民生上看還很遠。在3年前一次葬禮後，普京拒絕了所有人陪同，一個人獨自行走在莫斯科空曠的街道上。有人說，這顯現了他的霸氣和剛強。但一人行的背後，又何嘗沒有內心的一分孤寂和凄涼？

Easy to start but hard to end of the war, Syria, are not necessarily will not become Mired in Russia. After a storm comes a calm before the reform, Russia"s economy is a long way to go. A strong Russia, look from the military, from the point of view of the people"s livelihood. After three years ago, a funeral, accompanied by Mr Putin rejected all people, a person walking alone in the empty streets in Moscow. Some say, it shows his ambition and strong. But so no one behind the lines, the heart of a lonely and sad?

願普京的2017更好！