穆迪：2018年全球銀行業展望
1.經濟增長與償付能力提升將有助於銀行體系穩定信譽：全球銀行業將受益於有利的信貸條件，包括經濟增長、融資環境改善，以及近幾年逐步提升的資本充足水平。
Strengthening economic growth and improved solvency underpin bank creditworthiness: The global banking sector will benefit from favorable credit conditions that include improving economic growth and a supportive funding environment, following improvements in capitalization achieved over the past few years.
2.但銀行的回報率依然低迷：然而，在未來的一年裡，經濟普遍的強勁增長，不大可能帶來銀行盈利水平實質性回升。鑒於當前的低利率環境，以及部分地區不良貸款水平居高不下，這都將對銀行的盈利水平產生負面影響。
But low returns will persist: However, broadly stronger economic growth is unlikely to translate into material improvements in bank profitability in the coming year. Banks』 returns on assets and capital remain relatively modest given low interest rates and, in some jurisdictions, stubbornly high levels of nonperforming loans, each of which will continue to weigh on asset returns.
3.寬鬆的借貸條件推高了私人部門的槓桿率水平和資產價格，這將為銀行帶來下行風險：我們認為，主要的風險來源於私人部門的負債水平相對較高。在某些市場上，股票、房地產等資產價格出現上升。雖然我們預計，在經濟增長的環境下，借款人的償還能力不成問題，但高槓桿對於信用風險的負面影響已經開始顯現，例如美國銀行業的信用卡和汽車貸款組合。同樣，我們預計未來一年，全球金融市場依舊向好。
Accommodative borrowing conditions have also driven up private sector indebtedness and asset prices, presenting downside risks: We see the main downside risks as being relatively high levels of private sector indebtedness and, in some markets, elevated asset prices – for example, housing and equities. While we expect broad-based economic growth to support borrowers』 repayment capacity, pockets of high borrower leverage have been manifest in some credit deterioration – for example, in US banks』 credit card and auto loan portfolios. Equally, we see conditions across global financial markets remaining favorable in the coming year, event-related volatility notwithstanding.
3.合規性成本和信息科技投入將使得銀行業務費用居高不下：雖然巴塞爾資本協議和流動性監管框架仍處於分階段實施進程當中，但在某些領域中，我們並不希望增加銀行的資本負擔。此外，《國際財務報告準則-9》也會對銀行的資本充足率產生一定影響。而且，在一段時間以，銀行為滿足監管要求而導致成本上升，特別是在公司治理和監管報告等領域。
Costs related to regulatory compliance and investments in technology will keep operating expenses high: While there remain some facets of the Basel capital and liquidity framework to be fully phased in or, in some jurisdictions, initiated, we do not expect material increases in capitalization in the aggregate. In addition, the introduction and application of IFRS 9 will have some negative impact on banks』 reported capital ratios. And, as has been the case for some time, meeting regulatory and supervisory requirements will entail elevated costs, particularly as banks adjust to new governance structures and reporting regimes.
3.同樣，銀行仍有必要開發、維護和實施業務系統的升級，以留住客戶，提高效率：當前，銀行業金融機構希望維持在消費和公司銀行服務等市場的核心位置。然後，非傳統金融公司已經在金融服務領域佔據一席之地。例如，中國電子商務巨頭阿里巴巴在支付、存款與貸款等領域取得了巨大的成就。因此，對於銀行而言，滿足客戶的需求將是頭等大事。而競爭格局的變化，將會限制信息科技投資的轉化效率。
Similarly, there will be an ongoing imperative for banks to develop, implement and maintain technology upgrades to boost customer acquisition and retention and improve efficiency: Our expectation remains that incumbent institutions will maintain their position at the core of consumer and corporate banking services for the foreseeable future. However, new and nontraditional firms have already begun to establish material positions in providing certain financial services – for example, Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba, which has developed sizeable payments, credit provision and deposit businesses – highlighting the importance for incumbents of meeting customer expectations around quality of service and pricing. At the same time, such changes in the competitive landscape may limit the extent to which investments in technology and associated efficiency gains translate into improvements in the bottom line.
3.儘管歐盟的經濟呈現復甦，但低利率會拖累該地區銀行業的盈利能力：我們預計，歐盟最遲在2018年底會出現負利率，而且長期維持低利率將抵消銀行業信貸增長所帶來的利好，拖累銀行業整體盈利能力。自2017年初以來，所有歐元區國家的經濟增速均超過了預期，帶動了這些國家的就業增長、消費支出和投資增加。然而，某些國家不良貸款水平扔居高不下。我們預計，監管當局的重點仍是進一步實施監管協調，包括第二支柱的運用，以及更高的分類、處置遺留的問題貸款。
Profitability drag from low rates will be particularly acute for banks in the EU even as growth turns positive across the region: We expect an exit from negative interest rates by end 2018 at the earliest, with continued ultra-low interest rates constraining bank profitability, partly offset by accelerating credit growth. All euro-area countries have recorded faster than anticipated growth since early 2017, driving rising employment and robust household spending and investment. However, stubbornly high nonperforming loans will remain a drag in some countries. We expect the focus of authorities to remain on further harmonisation of supervisory practises, including application of Pillar 2, as well as better categorisation, provisioning and disposal of legacy problem loans. Progress on completion of the Banking Package is expected although timing is uncertain, and political differences in relation to mutualised deposit protection will delay finalisation of the Banking Union.
3.新興市場的銀行業也將從經濟增長中獲益：然而，銀行業內部、銀行業之間將存在一定的差異。資本流動將有所改善，許多商品價格已趨於穩定。同時，私營部門的槓桿率也在提高，這可能會造成那些經濟增長放緩或負增長國家的脆弱性增加。此外，某些地緣政治風險也應當引起關注。
Banks in emerging markets will also benefit from positive economic growth: However, there will some differentiation within and across banking sectors, with improvements coming from a low starting point in many cases. Capital flows have improved and many commodity prices have stabilized. At the same time, private sector leverage is elevated, which could constitute a structural vulnerability for those systems where the build-up has been most acute should economic growth slow or turn negative. There also remain some local political and geopolitical risks, including impending elections in a number of countries in Latin America, heightened uncertainty over US policy, particularly on trade, and simmering tensions with North Korea.
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金融監管編譯速遞
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