大帝帕克拉文將遭遇續約困局|潛力無窮但隱患猶在|各支球隊作何取捨？

美國JRS之聲

大帝帕克拉文將遭遇續約困局|潛力無窮但隱患猶在|各支球隊作何取捨？

Embiid, Parker and LaVine are all eligible for extensions this summer before they are healthy, and will become restricted free agents next summer. Given their injury situations, how would you handle their contracts and free agency? (self.nba)

喬爾-恩比德，賈巴里-帕克和扎克-拉文在今夏恢復健康之前都是可以續約的，並且在明年成為受限制自由球員。鑒於他們的傷病情況，你將如何處理他們的合同以及後續的簽約？

I"ve been thinking a lot about this since those guys went down. They"re obviously three very different situations, with different levels of health concerns but also different levels of upside as prospects (pretty much inverse in terms of risk vs upside). I worry about all of them getting big offer sheets from teams like the Nets if RFA that would put their respective teams in tough situations, but what would you offer as an extension and what do you think the market for these guys will be like if they do become RFAs?

在他們陸續受傷後我一直在考慮這方面問題。他們三個顯然處境截然不同，他們有不同程度的傷病隱患，同時也被寄予著不同程度的進步預期（預期和風險總是並存的）。我擔心他們如果成為受限制自由球員的話會收到來自像籃網這樣的球隊的高額報價，這會讓他們的母隊陷入困難的處境。你們會為他們的續約開出什麼樣的報價？你們認為如果他們成為受限制自由球員的話行情如何？

[–]RaptorsCenturionPrime 9 指標 4小時前

Im 90% that teams are gonna throw money at these guys during RFA. So its in the teams best interest to get an extension done before. Lavine should be the easiest but the other two have a big injury history. Maybe try to negotiate a team option.

我幾乎確定如果他們成為受限制自由球員的話，一定有很多球隊砸來大合同。所以他們的母隊最好提前續約。拉文應該是比較好處理的，但是其他兩名球員有重大傷病史。也許會嘗試協商使用球隊選項。

[–]TimberwolvesNebuchadnezzarJack 7 指標 3小時前

The 76ers have to re-sign Embiid regardless of the injuries. Its a gamble but hes worth the risk

76人一定要續約恩比德，無論他有沒有受傷。這是一場賭博，但是值得一賭。

[–]Warriorsjustsomeguy5 2 指標 3小時前

I think it"s an easy decision only because the Sixers traded away Noel, and I think it"s clear Jahlil won"t be the defensive anchor that they need. If Jahlil was a better defensive player, I could actually see Philly cutting their losses and trading Embiid over the summer. Too much is riding on Embiid being healthy going forward now. It makes me uneasy as a fan, and I"m sure it"s worse for the Sixers

FO. He missed 2 whole years, plays half a season and is out for the rest of the season. It would and should give anyone a bit of a pause.

我認為76人會決定續約恩比德只是因為他們交易走了諾埃爾，而且賈利爾-奧卡福顯然不是他們需要的防守基石。如果奧卡福的防守稍微好點的話，我敢說他們會在夏天止損出掉恩比德。他們已經太依賴恩比德的健康狀況了。這對於我一個球迷來說都難以承受，何況是管理層。恩比德在錯過兩個賽季之後，只打了半個賽季就報銷了。是時候給大家一個喘口氣的機會了。

[–][MIL] Jabari ParkerDubisttot 11 指標 4小時前*

Sadly I"m waiting until next season and hoping some desperate team doesn"t throw a big contract at Jabari. No way if I"m John Hammond am I giving a big contract to a guy with 2 acl tears on the same knee.

（賈巴里-帕克球迷）我在憂桑地等待下賽季的到來並且希望沒有哪個喪心病狂的球隊向帕克砸來大合同。但是如果我是約翰-哈蒙德（雄鹿總經理），我也不可能給一個在同一個膝蓋兩次前交叉韌帶撕裂的球員開出大合同。

[–]dropdatdurkadurk 6 指標 3小時前

Problem as always is how else are do you spend the money if you dont on Jabari? Milwaukee doesnt get top notch free agents, the ones they get wont come cheap either.

Giannis and Middleton are already locked up, Thon doesnt need a new deal till after 2020. Same with Brogdon. In other words saving money to resign guys isnt an actual strategy here there"s no need .

All of this translates to if the Bucks dont max Jabari they will end up using those $25 mil in other ways like free agency. And they wont get nearly the same value in free agency. You"re affraid to pay a 22 year old who was a borderline all star this year with health problems a max? Well the free agent market gave Chandler Parsons at age 27 a max who"s clearly worse than Parker despite his health issues being bad enough his best buddy Mark Cuban wouldnt touch him. That"s the type of value you have to be content dealing with if you want to engage in FA.

If Jabari can stay healthy which is a big if there"s a good chance he"s in multiple all star games. It"s rather unlikely Milwaukee will be able to get another option with that kind of potential for that $25-30 mil theyd use on his max. Thats" what this comes down to, potential. Raise the potential ceiling for your team

問題是如果如果你不給帕克開出大合同的話，你還想把錢留給誰呢？他們沒有要續約的頂級球員，他們簽來的也不會便宜。

阿德托昆博和米德爾頓已經搞定，索恩-梅克在2020年之前也不需要新的合同，布羅格登也一樣。換句話說就是（不簽帕克）留錢用於續約其他人並不必要。

總的來說就是，即使雄鹿不給帕克砸頂薪，他們也要把那2500萬花出去，比如簽自由球員。他們不會自有球員市場簽到性價比更高的人的。你不敢給一個才22歲出頭就達到准全明星水平傷病隱患球員頂薪？然而自由球員市場給了27歲的錢德勒-帕森斯頂薪，拋開他的傷病問題不說，他顯然比帕克要差，連老鐵庫班都不願再染指。如果你想參與自有球員市場，這種價值你是必須要去給足相應價碼的。

理想狀態下，如果帕克能保持健康，那麼他很有可能多次入選全明星。用他頂薪的2500萬-3000萬，雄鹿幾乎沒有其他更好的選擇。這就是這件事的核心，潛力。這能為球隊抬高潛力的上限。

[–]dropdatdurkadurk 6 指標 3小時前

Meh there are far more tricky ones to me, we live in a world now where guys like Allen Crabbe get 4 years $75 mil and Timofey Mosgov 4 years $64 mil. Jabari is already a borderline all star at age 21. Easily worth the gamble on his health, because like I was saying above people are going to greatly overestimate just how much you can help yourself if you try using that $25-30 mil elsewhere.

In general also you arent going to get close to what a guy"s full trade value is in return trying to trade him while he"s hurt or in the very initial stages when he comes back next year. There is a reason after all you almost never see major players traded while they are injured.

還有更有趣的呢，他們給了阿倫-克拉布4年7500萬，給了莫茲科夫4年6400萬，這是什麼世界啊。賈巴里-帕克21歲已經是一個準全明星了。絕對值得在他的健康上賭一把，因為就像我上面說的，人們對於能用2500-3000萬簽一個更好的球員這件事有點太樂觀了。

另外如果你想發揮一個球員最大的交易價值的話，在他受傷期間或剛剛復出的時候做交易不是一個明智的選擇。這也是你很難見到主力球員在受傷期間被交易的情況的原因。

[–][POR] Nicolas BatumHumblerbee 2 指標 3小時前

Yeah but Allen Crabbe is in the top 5 in 3 pt % on good volume and has shown consistently now in the past two seasons he can be a legitimate three point specialist. He is not getting enough shots to justify his contract but I wouldn"t lump him in with players who have already hit their ceiling. He"s only in his second season with regular minutes, and he"s still in a limited role-but with the opportunity given he hasn"t underperformed.

我要為阿倫-克拉布鳴不平，他在三分命中率上是前五的存在，並且已在過去兩個賽季證明自己可以成為一個3分專家。他沒有得到跟他合同相匹配的出手機會，但是我不會把他和那些已經達到上限的球員相提並論。這僅僅是他得到穩定出場時間的第二個賽季，並且在場上發揮的空間有限，但是一旦給他機會，她還沒讓人失望過。

[–]dropdatdurkadurk 2 指標 3小時前

He"s not as bad as the 30+ year old"s contracts but the point is that there"s a huge difference in paying $20 mil per year for someone like Crabbe who"s a backup gonna be 25 in a month and I dont think has a particularly high ceiling(he is what he is at this point to a decent extent) vs $25-28 mil for an injury prone but soon to be 22 year old who"s already shown to be a borderline all star.

The former if you accumulate deals like those is how you ground your team in mediocrity. The latter are the risks worth taking that can change your franchise.

是的，給他這樣的合同和給一個30歲的老將不同，但是給一個像克拉布這樣的還有1個月就滿25歲的球員2000萬一年，和他打出的表現完全不符，而且我不認為他的上限能有多高。

另一種情況是，把2500萬-2800萬給一個有傷病隱患但是剛剛22歲已經展示准全明星水平的球員。

前者的保守會讓你的球隊逐漸淪為平庸，而後者放手博一博，單車變摩托。

[–][POR] Nicolas BatumHumblerbee 1 指標 3小時前

Well I think ultimately teams need to risk both. I think it"s really good if you have a Jabari type who you can gamble on, but if you don"t you still have to find ways to put your team over the hump and sometimes it means finding someone who has excelled in their role and gambling that even though they are 25, they haven"t gotten opportunity and you think they might be successful given the chance. We were at the cap already so matching on Crabbe is a pretty marginal investment in terms of opportunity cost despite his large contract. And thus far he"s completely maintained his ppg, apg, rpg, all on less touches by stepping up his efficiency in every area. You can say he hasn"t exceeded expectations, but also given his touches he"s getting the seventh most touches but is the second most efficient offensive tool after CJ- we aren"t using him enough. He isn"t underperforming, he"s underutilized relative to what we"re paying him.

我認為每個球隊都會經歷這兩種狀況。我想，如果你有賈巴里-帕克這種值得一博的球員那固然很好，但是如果你沒有的話，你還是要找到讓球隊度過困境的辦法，就像克拉布這種情況，即使他已經25歲，但是球隊認為他在場上能很好的完成自己的任務，如果給他足夠的機會，相信他能夠成功，於是在他身上下了一注。我們當時已經達到工資帽了，所以儘管他的合同確實夠大，但是考慮到機會成本的因素，匹配報價算是一個邊際投資了。而且他確實在更少觸球的情況下高效地保持了他的場均得分、助攻和籃板數據。你可以說他沒有超出人們的預期，但他在隊內出手數第七，得分效率卻僅次於CJ-麥科勒姆排隊內第二，這說明我們沒有充分使用他。這不能稱得上是表現不佳，只是在我們現有的安排上沒有給予他足夠球權。

[–]RaptorsBismackMyBiyombo 4 指標 4小時前

I would trade Lavine before the trade deadline.

我會在交易截止日前交易扎克-拉文。

[–]TimberwolvesKATgonnaGetThatYarn[S] 8 指標 4小時前

I disagree, but it"s definitely not an easy choice. Why would you trade him?

我不同意，但這對你來說應該也不容易吧。能談談理由嗎？

[–][SAS] Tim DuncanMikhailGorbachef 3 指標 3小時前

Not that guy but I tend to agree with him, as long as you can get a decent package back.

LaVine is a great player but his fit alongside Towns and Wiggins is a little questionable. None of the three are particularly good defenders, which isn"t where you want your starting lineup to be. Yeah Wiggins and Towns were/are projected as having good defensive upside, but it hasn"t been shown consistently. It"d be cool to have LaVine"s 20ppg, sure, but the question for you guys becomes, "what else can we be doing with this money?". If you can get like a couple of good role players on decent contracts back for LaVine, I think it"s worth it. You have the stars; depth and defense are the next issue for you.

Not drawing a direct line here by any means, but you guys have done better since LaVine"s injury, no?

我不是樓上上，但是我認同他的觀點，只要你能交易到合理的籌碼就行。

拉文是個很棒的球員，但是他和唐斯以及維金斯的兼容性是一個問號。他們三個中沒有一個是特別好的防守球員，這可不是你期望的首發配置。維金斯和唐斯的防守有時候能讓人感覺在進步，但是並不穩定。拉文可以場均拿到20分，這很不錯，但是一個問題產生了，「我們用同樣的價錢還能做到什麼？」。如果你能用拉文換來一些性價比不錯的角色球員，我覺得是值得的。你已經有明星了，接下來就要提升陣容深度和防守了。

就事論事地說，拉文受傷後你狼表現的確實還不錯，不是嗎？

[–]Buckswendellsanders24 1 指標 4小時前

Is he gonna get a max? I don"t know if that"s a dumb question or not but he"s young and I thought he was averaging almost 20 a game pre-injury. Definitely a tough choice either way your other two studs.

他會得到頂薪嗎？我不清楚這問題該不該問，我只知道他很年輕，並且在受傷前場均接近20分。絕對是一個艱難的選擇，不過不管怎樣你還有其他兩個在。

[–]TimberwolvesDjInsanityX 2 指標 4小時前

100% chance he gets a max. He"s too young and talented not to.

他的年輕和天賦妥妥地會為他贏得頂薪的。

[–]Incognitohero11 5 指標 3小時前

But if you give a max to all 3 members of your big 3, that leaves little to no cap space to actually build around them when theyre in their primes

但如果你給他們三個都開出頂薪的話，就很難有薪金空間在他們的巔峰期圍繞他們組建球隊了。

[–]TimberwolvesKATgonnaGetThatYarn[S] 3 指標 3小時前

It"s a fucking tough situation. I hope Layden and Thibs know what they"re doing because I don"t know what to do and there"s still a lot of roster building to do around our core.

真是個幸福的煩惱。我希望斯科特-雷登（森林狼總經理）和湯姆-錫伯杜知道該怎麼做，因為我真想不出來，而且我們要圍繞這三核組建球隊的話還有很多事情要做。

[–]TimberwolvesKATgonnaGetThatYarn[S] 1 指標 4小時前

He was probably going to get a max pre-injury. If he"d agree to a deal in the 17-20 mil range for 4 years I"d probably want to do that over the summer. If he becomes and RFA and the ACL heals as expected he will definitely get max offers that we should match.

I"ve tried to find precedent for RFAs either being injured or only being a couple months back from a major injury and I couldn"t find anything similar. I think LaVine and Parker will both take around a year, but players coming back from an ACL tear generally take 18-24 months to get back to the player they were pre-injury (unless you"re

Purple Jesus).

Embiid should be OK meniscus wise in a couple months but his history record compared to his upside is uncharted territory. How this plays out is going to be pretty fascinating.

他在受傷前幾乎要鎖定頂薪了。如果他能同意一個年薪1700萬-2000萬的四年合同的話，我會很願意在夏天續約。如果他成為受限制自由球員並且前交叉韌帶恢復良好的話，一定會得到頂薪報價，那樣到時候我們還是要匹配。

我嘗試去找到受傷狀態或在幾個月從嚴重傷病內返回賽場的先例但是沒有找到。我想拉文和帕克都需要大概一年的時間去恢復，一般來說球員們都需要18-24個月從前交叉韌帶撕裂中恢復，除非你是紫色耶穌（譯者註：紫色耶穌是指NFL明尼蘇達維京人隊超級跑鋒阿德里安-皮特森，他曾在2011年的平安夜接受了左膝前交叉韌帶撕裂修復手術和內側副韌帶損傷修復手術，之後他只用了不到9個月的時間就神奇恢復回到了賽場，並且他復出之後的表現甚至超出了受傷前。）

恩比德應該沒事，半月板一般幾個月就會恢復。他的上限還是未知領域，他復出後的表現令人無比期待。

[–]TimberwolvesKATgonnaGetThatYarn[S] 2 指標 3小時前

He will be just coming back from the injury during the trade deadline and his trade value will probably be at it"s lowest point since he was looking like a bust his rookie year. Players never play well during the first few months back from an ACL tear unless their name is Adrian Peterson. The majority of players with ACL tears are able to come back without it ruining their career, especially young players. Why do you think he"ll completely fuck up his knee?

他會在交易截止日左右返回賽場，那時相較於它爆炸性的新秀賽季來說，他的交易價值是最低的。一般剛從ACL撕裂恢復的前幾個月，除非你是阿德里安-皮特森，否則不會打的很好。但是大多數球員都不會讓ACL撕裂毀掉整個生涯，尤其是年輕球員。你為什麼非得說他的膝蓋廢了呢？

[–]Trail BlazersOldManWillow 2 指標 4小時前

Just hold out and see how next season goes. If a team offers a big offer sheet, then you have a decision next summer; but until then just let them earn their contracts by staying on the court.

都淡定吧，下賽季就知道結果了。如果球隊開出了續約條件，那就要球員做出選擇了。否則就讓他們用球場表現去贏得合同吧。

[–][WAS] Kelly OubreWitNicky 2 指標 3小時前

It worked out for us with a Beal I just don"t think you can let them go for nothing with that kind of potential you gotta risk it

我們華盛頓的比爾就是個例子，我認為你不能浪費他們的潛力，你需要為了他去冒險。

[–]WarriorseBelieve 3 指標 3小時前

Sometimes the best deal is the one you don"t make. Minny already has their two superstars in Wiggins and Towns so they shouldn"t hesitate to let Lavine go should he get a monster deal.

有時候最好的交易就是你沒做的那個。木狼已經有維金斯和唐斯兩個超級明星了，他們應該毫不猶豫的放走拉文讓他去拿大合同。

我們的公眾號：ChinaReddit，還處於成長之中~，微博：虎撲JRS字幕組~

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