登哥穩了？哈登MVP概率已超詹威倫之和|大鬍子巔峰一季實至名歸？

美國JRS之聲

登哥穩了？哈登MVP概率已超詹威倫之和|大鬍子巔峰一季實至名歸？

According to BasketballReference, James Harden now has a higher chance of winning the MVP (44.2%) than Westbrook (10.4%), Lebron (10.3%), and Kawhi (7.2%) combined. (self.nba)

根據BBR，現在哈登獲得MVP的概率（44.2%）比威少（10.4%），勒布朗（10.3%）和倫納德（7.2%）加起來都要高。

Of course, the algorithm has flaws (KD is still at 17% chance) and it doesn"t take into effect any media narratives (historical importance of triple doubles), but I thought it was interesting.

當然這個演算法是有缺陷的（KD在這個模型中仍然獲得了17%的可能），而且它也沒有考慮到媒體的偏好（場均三雙肯定是有歷史級的意義的），但是我仍然覺得這個統計很有意思。

[–]Trail BlazersDriew27 579 指標 14小時前

Funny that harden would go from not making an all NBA team one year to league MVP the next

有趣的是哈登居然從上一年最佳陣容都進不了直接轉變成下一年的MVP。

[–]WizardsMawly-G 378 指標 14小時前

To be fair, it was an absolute travesty that he was left off those teams. Houston underachieved, sure, but he still put up ridiculous stats and grinded to get his team to that 8th seed.

公平的講，上賽季他連三陣都沒進真的講不通。誠然火箭沒有達到人們的預期，但是他仍然打出了驚人的數據，並帶領著球隊最終以第8的身份進入了季後賽。

[–]ClippersRudolphGobert 216 指標 14小時前

Proof again that literally the only thing that matters is expectations

再一次證明了唯一重要的事情就是人們對於你的期望。

[–]Rocketsmarksoutherntwain 62 指標 10小時前

Also a media bias against any and everything Rockets before this season.

另外，在這賽季之前，基本上媒體對於跟火箭有關的一切都帶有偏見。

[–]ClippersRudolphGobert 50 指標 10小時前

Morey is a bad GM because he understands statistics!

莫雷是個糟糕的總經理，因為他懂得數據分析！

[–]zxc123zxc123 44 指標 10小時前

"LOL silly Morey! Adding Le Pringles man who has no defense to the no defense rockets and that no defense beard will NEVER WORK!"

「哈哈哈，莫雷真是個傻子。居然把毫無防守能力的老普加進這支毫無防守的火箭里，而且永遠 不防守的哈登是絕對不可能成功的。」

[–]HeatLukeBron 22 指標 10小時前

I swear every team thinks the media has a bias against them

我感覺每支球隊都會感覺媒體對他們有偏見。

[–]RocketsLOOK_AT_IT 38 指標 10小時前

I mean, Charles Barkley still thinks our owner owes him money after he signed for cheap, got hurt, and didn"t get a big contract afterwards.

That guy legitimately loathes the Rockets.

Couple that with Shaq"s issues with Dwight and you get a unfavorable take on our team on a national broadcast fairly quickly.

（火蜜）要知道，巴克利到現在為止都認為我們的老闆還欠他錢，因為他當時以一份很廉價的合同就簽約了火箭，之後卻遭遇了傷病，然後就再也拿不到大合同了。

顯然這個傢伙非常憎恨火箭。

再加上沙克和霍華德之間長久以來的恩怨，從而在全美直播中火箭很容易就會受到偏見。

[–]RocketsADAM_BRONZE 31 指標 10小時前

Bill Walton"s been hating on us since the 90"s

火蜜：比爾-沃頓更是從90年代開始就憎恨我們了。

[–]RaptorsDeKobe-DeBryant 31 指標 13小時前

He nearly won the MVP in 2015 too.

2nd place in MVP voting to not making an All-NBA team to winning MVP.

Nice.

2015年哈登也差點就拿了MVP。

從MVP第二，到三陣都沒有，再到幾乎鎖定MVP。

這劇本完美。

[–]Rocketsstillwaitingatx 5 指標 12小時前

He won the players MVP vote. So I still call him MVP. Media is trash

但是那一年他贏得了球員們的投票，是球員們選出的MVP，所以我還是會稱他為MVP，媒體都是垃圾。

[–][OKC] Xavier McDanielgaussx 41 指標 11小時前

Until the players vote Westbrook this year.

直到今年球員們都投了威少作為MVP，你還會說媒體垃圾嗎？

[–]Dawgshamdawg 33 指標 14小時前

He"s gunning for Most Improved Player as well I guess

我感覺哈登今年也有很大機會獲得「進步最快球員」的獎項。

[–]RaptorsThaNorth 23 指標 12小時前

Won"t happen. If Curry didn"t get it last year Harden won"t this year.

不可能的，如果去年庫里沒拿到這一獎項的話，今年哈登也不可能拿。

[–]Rocketsplaytio 19 指標 11小時前

Curry from MVP to MVP?

庫里怎麼拿，從MVP進步到MVP嗎？

[–]Braveshayabusa- 15 指標 11小時前

to be fair going from consensus top 5 player to maybe best in the world is a massive jump

講道理，庫里在去年從一個公認的前五球員直接變成也許是世界上最好的球員，這是個非常大的進步了。

[–]RocketsSirScooby 71 指標 15小時前

Does anyone know when voting begins and ends?

有誰知道MVP投票什麼時候開始和結束嗎？

[–][HOU] Yao Ming_rajivvv 38 指標 13小時前

If I remember correctly, it begins immediately after the regular season ends but I"m not sure when it ends.

如果我沒記錯的話，常規賽一結束MVP投票就會開始，但是不確定什麼時候會停止。

[–]New Jersey Netshowboutnowgirl 84 指標 13小時前

They announce MVP after the first round of the playoffs.

I remember because I was sad as hell when Dirk got his MVP trophy in 2007 after being eliminated in the first round.

聯盟會在季後賽第一輪結束後宣布常規賽的MVP。

我記得這一點是因為2007年時德克在第一輪被黑八後被授予了MVP獎項，真是太傷心了。

[–][PHX] Steve NashGerbil1320 44 指標 13小時前

They changed it this year and are having an entire awards show after the finals but before the draft actually

但是今年聯盟改了慣例，他們將會在總決賽結束到選秀開始前集中舉辦一場頒獎典禮，頒發所有的獎項。

[–]Supersonicsexasperated_dreams 130 指標 15小時前

He was always the favourite imo

哈登從一開始就是最有可能拿MVP的。

[–]76ersImmynimmy 41 指標 15小時前

True, but Westbrook leap frogged Lebron and Kawhi. I could have sworn a similar post last week had Westbrook in 4th place behind them.

是這樣，但是威少現在超越了勒布朗和倫納德排在第二了。上周我發誓看到過類似的帖子，把威少放在了第四位。

[–]-917- 29 指標 15小時前

iow, Harden has roughly equal chance of winning MVP as KD+Russ+Lebron+Kawhi combined

換句話說，哈登贏得MVP的概率大概和KD，威少，勒布朗，倫納德加起來一樣大。

[–]KnickedUp 2 指標 13小時前

I will guarantee you R Westbrook will not get the MVP...even if he finishes with 35/12/12 as his season averages.

我向你保證威少不會得到MVP，就算賽季結束的時候他場均35/12/12。

[–]TimberwolvesShhadowcaster 34 指標 12小時前

The late season eruption he would need to hit those marks would 100% give him MVP. Voters would literally be voting directly after Westbrook goes on the best streak of his life and probably the greatest ever. He would need to average 55.8, 20.9 and 21.9 over the last 12 games. I think 12 more 50-60pt, 20 Reb, 20 AST triple doubles give him the MVP without question.

如果賽季結束他真的能拿到你說的這個數據，那MVP百分之百就是他了。要達到賽季35/12/12的數據，他在後面12場比賽里必須場均砍下55.8分，20.9籃板和21.9助攻，從而他必然會打出生涯為止甚至是NBA歷史上最令人嘆為觀止的表現。我認為12場左右的50~60分，20籃板，20助攻的三雙表現會讓他成為毫無疑問的MVP。

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