00年起前五順位水貨率分析，擺爛重建究竟靠不靠譜？

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00年起前五順位水貨率分析，擺爛重建究竟靠不靠譜？

Analysis of top 5 picks bust rate since year 2000 (OC) (self.nba)

對自2000年起，前五順位水貨率的分析

我曾經考慮過，前五的選秀權到底有多珍貴，而前五順位的新秀成功的幾率又是如何。於是我決定翻翻2000年起的舊賬，看看每個順位誕生出的球隊核心球員（多賽季的MVP競爭者，可以作為大當家帶隊奪冠）、精英全明星（4+全明星陣容和多個NBA最佳陣容）、全明星、先發、水掉的幾率都是多少。

狀元簽

球隊核心級 - 勒布朗-詹姆斯，德懷特-霍華德，安東尼-戴維斯，卡爾-安東尼-唐斯（我假設他會成長到這一檔）

精英級 - 布萊克-格里芬， 約翰-沃爾，姚明，凱里-歐文

全明星級 - 德里克-羅斯（把他放在這兒是因為他的傷病，只有三次全明星和一次NBA最佳陣容），安德魯-維金斯（假設他能來到這檔，可能到不了）

首發級 - 安德魯-博古特，巴格納尼（很少首發，但我會把他從水掉那擋拉出來），肯揚-馬丁（一次全明星，但更接近一個合格先發球員的水平）

水貨級 - 誇梅-布朗，格雷格-奧登，安東尼-本內特

所以狀元簽而論，結果是4/16的比率成為球隊核心球員，4/16精英全明星，2/16全明星，3/16首發，3/16水貨。

二號簽

球隊核心級 - 凱文-杜蘭特

精英級 - 拉馬庫斯-阿爾德里奇（四次NBA最佳陣容）

全明星級 - 泰森-錢德勒（一次全明星，年度最佳防守球員），賈巴里-帕克（假設他會成長到這檔）

首發級 - 奧拉迪波，埃梅卡-奧卡福，埃文-特納，馬文-威廉姆斯，邁克爾-基德-吉爾吉斯特，德安吉洛-拉塞爾（湖人球迷們別殺了我，不過他還是可能輕易升級到全明星級或精英級的）

水貨級 - 斯特羅邁爾-斯威夫特，傑伊-威廉姆斯，米利西奇，邁克爾-比斯利，塔比特，德里克-威廉姆斯

二號簽明顯被詛咒了，只有1/16的球隊核心球員，1/16精英全明星，2/16全明星，6/16先發，6/16水貨。矮油。

三號簽

球隊核心級 - 卡梅羅-安東尼，恩比德（存疑），哈登

精英級 - 保羅-加索爾，德隆-威廉姆斯（2次NBA最佳陣容，持久了5年的20+10）

全明星級 - 艾爾-霍福德（本可以把他塞進精英級的，但並不覺得他巔峰期有辣么強），布拉德利-比爾（我覺著他在退役前會搞定幾次全明星的），德里克-費沃斯（可能有爭議，但我覺得如果他在東部，那他可能已經一次全明星在手了，並且我認為他有著全明星級別的天賦）

首發級 - OJ梅奧，本-戈登，埃內斯-坎特，奧托-波特（我覺得他未來能跳到全明星級，但目前 不太穩），麥克-鄧利維，賈利爾-奧卡福（現在還不確定他會成長成什麼樣，但估計能成為堅實的首發）

水貨級 - 達柳斯-邁爾斯，亞當-莫里森

三號簽比起二號簽可進步多啦，3/16的球隊核心球員球員（把恩比德算上可能把這個比率拉高了，但我選擇現在就給他加冕），2/16精英全明星，3/16全明星，6/16先發，2/16水貨。

四號簽

球隊核心級 - 威斯布魯克，克里斯-保羅

精英級 - 波什，波爾津吉斯（仍不確定他是否能成為特權球員，但我覺得他會入選五次以上的 全明星）

全明星級 - 邁克-康利（我不知道他今年算不算數，但他能力在全明星邊緣已經很久了，如果他在東部大概也已經入選過了）

首發級 - 德魯-古登，泰瑞克-埃文斯，特里斯坦-湯普森，科迪-澤勒，埃迪-庫里（有過三五個 不錯的賽季），迪昂-維特斯，阿隆-戈登（不確定他最後會落到哪檔）

水貨級 - 肖恩-利文斯頓（已經重生，但總體來說我還是覺得他水掉了），馬庫斯-費澤爾，泰魯斯-托馬斯

四號簽相當弱勢，但有保羅和威斯布魯克也天賦滿滿。總體看，2/16的球隊核心級球員，2/16精英全明星，1/16全明星，8/16先發，3水貨。

五號簽

球隊核心級 - 德維恩-韋德

精英級 - 凱文-樂福，德馬庫斯-考辛斯（我覺得他能到達特權級，但需要更好地帶動他的球隊）

全明星級 -傑森-理查德森（從未入選過全明星，但我想他好幾次都很接近，並在我看來足夠接近）

首發級 - 德文-哈里斯，傑夫-格林，喬納斯-瓦蘭丘納斯，里基-盧比奧，雷蒙德-費爾頓，麥克-米勒，阿萊克斯-萊恩

水貨級 - 尼克羅茲-斯哥蒂什維利，謝爾登-威廉姆斯，托馬斯-羅賓遜，馬里奧-海佐尼亞（下定論太早了，但跡象不太妙），丹特-埃克薩姆（同樣太早，同樣不妙）

這是個更弱的簽位，有著1/16的球隊核心級球員，2/16精英全明星，1/16全明星，7/16先發，5/16水貨。

我知道，對於2013年後這些簽位的成色如何，現在還有大量不同推測，但我為了能得到一個總體印象，儘力去預測了。

總的來說，如果你有一個前五順位簽在手，那按過去結果而論，你有大約11/80或者14%的幾率得到一名特權球員。我趕腳，這可是個相當不錯的成材率。

你選中一位精英級球員的幾率大概和球隊核心級同樣大，11/80或14%。所以你選中球隊核心或精英級球員的幾率大約是28%。

有9/80或11%的幾率選中一位全明星球員，所以你至少選中一位全明星球員的幾率是39%。

選中首發級別球員的幾率是30/80或37.5%。

挑到水貨的幾率是19/80或23.75%。你選中首發級或水貨級的幾率大約是61%。比起選中全明星，你更有可能到手一個首發級或水貨級。

狀元簽明顯最珍貴，有50%的幾率拿到精英全明星及以上級別的球員。但是在狀元簽後，你選中球隊核心或精英級球員的幾率就相當小了，並且有大得多的幾率選中一個水貨，或僅僅是平均級別的首發球員。不過每幾年也會有一名球隊核心球員或精英球員被選中，天賦會一代一代顯現的。在那些小年裡，水貨率就很高了。

如果把狀元簽移出討論，那用2-4號簽選中全明星或以上級別球員的幾率大約是34%。選中球隊核心或精英球員的幾率是18%。

太長不看版總結：在交易獲得巨星時，選秀權的價值不一定像他們看上去的那樣高，除非是狀元簽。狀元簽之外，即使把要求降低到全明星及以上，你也僅僅有34%的幾率如願，而精英級以上的幾率是18%。考慮進去首輪加成，選到未來全明星的幾率增加到了39%，精英級以上幾率上升到了22%。你有61%的幾率選中水貨級和首發級，並且選中水貨的幾率比選中全明星高。

補充：老哥們似乎很在意我的球員分檔，但我只是粗略歸類下，從而看看選秀權的價值，嘿嘿嘿

再補充：去除掉最近兩屆選秀，幾率變成了球隊核心級= 9/70 (13%) , 精英全明星 = 10/70 (14%), 全明星 = 7/70 (10%), 首發 = 27/70 (38.5%), 水貨 = 17/70 (24%)。快來看呀快來瞧，幾率幾乎不動搖！

I was thinking the other day about just how valuable are top 5 picks and what is the success rate of these picks. So I decided to look back from year 2000 and see at what rate each pick got a Franchise player (potential MVP candidate multiple years, can lead team to a championship as the best player), elite - all stars (4+ all stars and a couple all-nba), All-Star, Starter, bust for each of the top 5 picks.

Pick 1 -

Franchise - Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns (I"m assuming he"ll reach this level)

Elite All - Star - Blake Griffin, John Wall, Yao Ming, Kyrie Irving

All - Star - Derrick Rose (put him here because of his injury history, only has 3 all stars and one all nba), Andrew wiggins (assuming he"ll reach this status, might not),

Starter - Andrew Bogut, Bargnanni (barely a starter but I"ll leave him off the bust category), Kenyon Martin (one all-star but more of a starter quality player)

Bust - Kwame Brown, Greg Oden, Anthony Bennet

So the #1 pick rounds out with 4/16 franchise players, 4/16 elite - all star, 2/16 all-star, 3/16 starter, 3/16 bust

Pick 2

Franchise - Kevin Durant

Elite All- Star - Lamarcus Aldridge (4 time all nba)

All-Star - Tyson Chandler (1 all star, DPOY), Jabari Parker (assuming he will develop to this point)

Starter - Oladipo, Emeka Okafor, Evan Turner, Marvin Williams, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Deangelo Russell (Don"t kill me lakers fans but he could easily move up into all-star or elite all-star)

Bust - Stromile Swift, Jay Williams, Darko Millicic, Michael Beasely, Hasheem Thabeet, Derrick Williams

2nd pick appears to be cursed, with 1/16 franchise, 1/16 elite all-star, 2/16 all-star, 6/16 starter, 6/16 bust. Yikes.

Pick 3

Franchise - Carmelo Anthony, Embiid(?), Harden

Elite All-Star - Pau Gasol, Deron Williams (2 time all-nba, 5 year stretch of 20-10)

All-Star - Al Horford (could"ve snuck him into elite but didn"t think he had that high of a peak), Bradley Beal (I think he"ll pick up a couple all-stars before hes done), Derrick Favors (might be controversial but I think he if he was on a team in the east he might have an all-star already, and I think he"s an all star level talent)

Starter - O.J Mayo, Ben Gordon, Enes Kanter, Otto Porter ( I think he can make the jump to all-star but not confident as of now), Mike dunleavy, jahlil okafor (not sure what to make of him yet but think he can be a solid starter)

Bust - Darius Miles, Adam Morrison

3rd pick improves a lot from the 2nd pick, with 3/16 franchise (big if on embiid but ill give it to him for now), 2/16 elite all-stars, 3/16 all-stars, 6/16 starters, 2/16 busts.

Pick 4

Franchise - Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul

Elite All-Star - Chris Bosh, Porzingis (not sure he can be a franchise player yet but I think he"ll reach 5+ all-stars),

All-Star - Mike conley (Idk if he made it this year but he"s been a bordeline all-star talent for long enough and would probably have one in the east)

Starter - Drew Gooden, Tyreke Evans, Tristan Thompson, Cody Zeller, Eddy Curry (had a 3-5 good seasons), Dion Waiters, Aaron Gordon (not sure where he"ll end up)

Bust Shaun Livingston (has revived his career but overall I think its been a bust), Marcus Fizer, Tyrus Thomas,

4th is pretty weak but has a couple great talents in paul and westbrook. Overall 2/16 franchise, 2/16 elite all star, 1/16 all star, 8/16 starters, 3 busts.

Pick 5

Franchise - Dwyane Wade

Elite All-star - Kevin Love, Demarcus Cousins ( I think he can reach franchise but needs to improve his team more)

All-Star - Jason Richardson (never got an all star but I think he was close multiple times and I"d consider him close enough)

Starter - Devin Harris, Jeff Green, Jonas Valancunias, ricky rubio, raymond felton, Mike Miller, Alex Len

Bust - Nickoloz Tskitishvili, Shelden Williams, Thomas Robinson, Mario Hezonja ( too early but the signs aren"t great), Dante Exum (too early but not showing great signs)

This is a weaker pick, with 1/16 franchise, 2/16 elite all-star, 1/16 all-star, 7/16 starter, 5/16 bust

Now I know there is a lot of speculation for most of these picks after 2013 about, but I did my best to see where they would project just to get a general idea.

Overall if you get a top 5 pick you have about an 11/80 or 14% chance to land a franchise player according to past results. That"s actually quite a good success rate I"d reckon.

You have about the same chance of landing an elite all star, 11/80 or 14%. So you"re chance of getting a franchise player or elite all-star is about 28%.

There is a 9/80 or 11% chance of getting an all star caliber player, so you"re chance of getting at least an all-star player is 39%.

The chance of landing a starter caliber player is 30/80 or 37.5%.

The chance of landing a bust is 19/80 or 23.75%. You"re chance of getting a starter or a bust is about 61%. You have a better chance of getting a starter or bust than you do of getting an all-star.

First pick is clearly the most valuable, with about a 50% chance of getting an elite all-star or above. After first pick however you have a pretty small chance of landing an elite all star or franchise player, and have a much better chance at landing a bust or just an average starter. Also in years where there was a franchise player or elite all star taken there was a generational talent available. In years without there was a high bust rate.

If you take out the first pick, you"re chance of landing an all-star or above in picks 2-4 is about 34%. You"re chance of landing a franchise or elite player is 18%.

TL;DR Draft picks aren"t necessarily as valuable as they seem when trading for superstar players. Unless its the first pick overall, you have only about a 34% chance of landing a player that is even an allstar, and an 18% chance of landing an elite all-star. Including the first pick boosts your chance of landing an all-star to 39%, and a franchise or elite player to 22%. You have a 61% chance of getting a bust or a starter, with a higher chance of a bust than an all-star.

Edit : most of you guys seem concerned where I put people, while this was more of an exercise in seeing the value of draft picks lol

EDIT 2 Removing the last 2 drafts and the #"s bear out to franchise = 9/70 (13%) , elite all-star = 10/70 (14%), all-star = 7/70 (10%), starter = 27/70 (38.5), bust = 17/70 (24%). OH wow look the numbers barely changed from where they were!

[–]bbirt 557 指標 1 月前

How"re you gonna classify Embiid as a franchise player but not Boogie???

你怎麼敢說恩比德是球隊核心級球員

卻不帶上表妹？

[–][TOR] Bismack BiyomboSon_of_Biyombo 23 指標 1 月前

PIC

老鐵，沒毛病

[–]LakersDGgoesdeep 27 指標 1 月前

The amount of disrespect Boogie gets on here makes me so mad lmao

表妹在Reddit受到如此多不敬，氣得我都合不攏腿了哈哈哈哈

[–]JazzXsy 7 指標 1 月前

Yeah man, Cousins has won 30 games once! He"s basically the greatest C of all time.

可不是么，考辛斯都怒贏過30場了！歷史最佳中鋒基本已在囊中。

[–][deleted] 566 指標 1 月前

SHAUN LIVINGSTON IS NOT A BUST

肖、恩、利、文、斯、頓、不、是、水、貨

[–]Netsaydee123 227 指標 1 月前

There should be a category between "Starter" and "Bust".

Shaun Livingston would go there.

「首發級」和「水貨級」之間最好再分出來一檔。

利文斯頓應該在那兒。

[–]Sunsdirtydesert 195 指標 1 月前

"Solid rotation player"

「靠譜輪換球員級」。

[–]Raptorsdollaraire 163 指標 1 月前

I mean, if you"re maxing out at "solid rotation player" with the 4th overall pick, I think you can safely classify that as a bust. Anybody who knows what Livingston went through and what he"s made of his career knows it"s not an insult. But if we"re talking about getting value out of draft positions, a bust is a bust.

我的意思是，如果你貴為四號秀，極限卻只是「靠譜輪換球員級」，那你毫無疑問要被掃進水貨檔。只要你知道利文斯頓經歷過什麼，又是如何走過自己職業生涯的，那你就應該知道這絕不是侮辱。但如果我們在討論從選秀簽位中榨出的價值，那水貨就是水貨。

[–][CHA] Kemba WalkerPattyMac811 25 指標 1 月前

I see your point, but if you"re a productive NBA player in any capacity, you are not a bust. Relative to draft position is such an unfair way to judge a player"s career. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a great example in my opinion. Every team would love to him on their squad. He"s one of the best on-ball defenders in the entire league and a great rebounder and can chip in 8-16 points on any given night. Every team wants that player, but because he was drafted 2nd overall, he"s a "bust" because he"s not putting up 25-10 every night.

我懂你的意思了，但作為一個NBA球員，如果你能在任何層面上持續產出，那你就不是個水貨。在評價一個球員的生涯時，一定要把表現和順位掛鉤十分不公平。在我看來邁克爾-基德-吉爾吉斯特就是個絕佳示例。每支球隊都樂意把他收入隊中。他是整個聯盟中最好的持球防守者之一，也是很棒的籃板手，還能在隨便哪個晚上插空取下8-16分。每支球隊都想要他，但就因為他是2號秀，只要他每晚沒拿到25分10板，那麼他就是個「水貨」。

[–]NetsBigbadbuck[S] 71 指標 1 月前

Yea he wasn"t a bust but for a top 5 pick I think he"d end up being a bust. I really should have had a Bench player designation, but I think if you"re a bench player as a top 5 pick you"re a bust.

樓主：對他不是水貨，但我想前五順位而言，他最終還是要水了。我本應該為板凳球員單分一檔的，但我認為如果你是前五順位球員卻只能坐板凳，那你就水掉了。

[–]NetsBigbadbuck[S] 20 指標 1 月前

Look at livingston careers stats. He"s been a bust for most of his career. He turned his career around for 2-3 years after a short stint with the Nets.

樓主：瞅瞅利文斯頓的生涯數據。在他生涯的大多數時間裡都很水。在籃網的短暫停留後，他最近兩三年有所好轉。

[–][MIN] Andrew Wigginsgiannissim 182 指標 1 月前*

I"m sorry, you say KAT MIGHT be a franchise, but then you say embiid ALREADY IS a franchise and your only reason for being unsure whether he is one is injuries?

不好意思，你說唐斯可能成為球隊核心級球員，但你又說恩比德已經是特權球員。而你唯一不確定唐斯是不是核心球員的理由是他的傷病？

[–]Thundersenorpootin 102 指標 1 月前

This was the main thing that stood out. Embiid has played maybe 30 games and somehow is already considered franchise tier.

這是主要問題所在。恩比德也就大概打了30場比賽，但已經被當作特權級別了。

[–][LAL] Vlade pacweeyummy1 47 指標 1 月前

Franchise player =/= MVP. Franchise player means you could build a championship team with that player as the centerpiece.

Yao Ming, Deron Williams, Bosh, Cousins were all franchise players at some point

核心級球員 =/= MVP。核心級球員意味著你能圍繞這名球員打造一支冠軍隊伍。

姚明，德隆-威廉姆斯，波什，考辛斯在某種意義上都是核心級球員。

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