到底給不給頂薪？保羅洛瑞米神的續約困境|35歲4000萬年薪？

美國JRS之聲

到底給不給頂薪？保羅洛瑞米神的續約困境|35歲4000萬年薪？

Kyle Lowry, Chris Paul, Paul Millsap and the Potential for Albatross Contracts (self.nba)

洛瑞，保羅，米爾薩普和可能的天價重負合同

Kyle Lowry (turning 31 this summer), Chris Paul (turning 32 this summer) and Paul Millsap (already 32) are all eligible to get paid the 35% max this summer by their respective teams for 5 years with 8% raises which translates to 5 years $210 million. The most another team can offer is 4 years $154 million.

Should their respective teams sign these players to the 5 year max?

Should the teams decide to let them walk instead of having to pay 45 million to a player in his mid 30s?

凱爾-洛瑞（這個夏天將滿31歲），克里斯-保羅（夏天將32歲）和保羅-米爾薩普（已滿32歲） 這個夏天有資格拿到他們母隊開出的占工資帽35%，每年漲幅8%的頂薪合同，換算過來就是5 年2億1000萬美元。而其他球隊可以開出的最高價碼是4年1億5400萬美元。

他們的母隊應該給這幾位球員五年頂薪么？

為了不給一名三十歲中期的球員支付4500萬美元的年薪，這幾支球隊是否應該選擇讓他們離開？

[–]Lakersdonniedarkoo 15 指標 9小時前

CP3 and Lowry are getting paid cause those teams want to win now even if it"s not realistic. Could see the Hawks not offering Millsap the whole package.

保羅和洛瑞將會被頂薪續約，因為快船和猛龍現在就想要染指總冠軍，即使這並不現實。可以預見老鷹不會為米爾薩普開出頂薪合同。

[–]CavaliersMemesFranco 13 指標 9小時前

Only counterpoint to this would be: why didn"t they field offers for Millsap at the trade deadline if they didn"t plan 100% on signing/retaining him this summer. Someone else will probably give him the whole package. They could"ve at least flipped him for some assets.

對此唯一的反對意見是：如果老鷹管理層不一定要在這個夏天續約/留住米爾薩普，那他們為什麼不在交易截止日之前將他擺上貨架？其他球隊大概會給他開出一份頂薪合同的。老鷹管理層至少也可以拿他折價換取一點什麼。

[–]dropdatdurkadurk 8 指標 8小時前

Brian Windhorst talked about this a bit back in January but apparently they were looking to move him was the plan of the front office after they dealt Kyle Korver. And alot of people who know the Hawks organization well like Kevin Arnovitz thought Millsap was gonna go after that Korver deal. But the front office per Windhorst got a lot of blowback from the players and others in the organization who really hated the idea of blowing things up on that team. And hence they kind of hesitantly took Millsap officially off the block.

Apparently they were still willing to listen to offers but the good ones just weren"t there. Toronto moved in on Ibaka and that was kind of that.

And for the Hawks it"s also

1) There"s something to be said for winning 45 games and getting into the playoffs, that"s what theyve been doing for a decade. If they trade Millsap that wouldnt happen this year. But that recipe keeps fans interested, makes revenue, keeps the Hawks relevant which they werent for a long time and what they are terrified of could happen again in a rebuild. The business side of things matters alot and what fans forget.

2) Part of them is probably hoping even if the odds arent high of it that the market this summer for Millsap isnt that crazy and they can get him on a half decent deal. It"s wishful thinking but if the offers you got at the trade deadline werent doing it for you then that"s probably the best alternative.

布萊恩-溫德霍斯特（ESPN的NBA寫手）曾在一月份稍微談及過這事兒，但明顯制服組在交易科沃爾後的計劃是把米爾薩普也交易掉。很多了解老鷹管理層的人，比如凱文-阿諾維茨（另一名ESPN的NBA記者），都覺得在科沃爾的交易後米爾薩普也會走人。但是制服組和溫德霍斯特（ 不確定）都收到了來自球員和管理層其他人的一大波抱怨。管理層的其他人十分厭惡將球隊就此打散的點子。於是他們扭扭捏捏地把米爾薩普正式從拋售貨架上拿了下來。

很明顯，他們依舊願意傾聽其他球隊的報價，但好的交易？不存在的。猛龍轉而拿下了伊巴卡，事情大概就是這樣。

而對於老鷹，還有以下兩條：

1）贏下45場並打入季後賽還是有些說頭的，這也是老鷹過去十年所一直在做的。如果他們交易了米爾薩普，那這賽季他們就做不到這一點了。（剩下這段不確定指的是交易還是留下米爾薩普）

2）儘管幾率不大，但他們還在指望這個夏天市場對米爾薩普不會那麼狂熱，於是他們就可以給他開出一份便宜一點的合同了。這可能只是個美好的幻想，但當你在交易截止日前拿到的報價都行不通時，這大概就是你能拿到的最佳替代方案了。

[–]HawksPersonacorona 4 指標 9小時前

We want to win now. We"re building ourselves up for the future but we were all in for getting Jimmy Butler or PG at the trade deadline. We offered 4 first round picks for either one of them, it just didn"t come through

（鷹蜜）我們想贏得當下。我們在為未來打下基礎，但我們在交易截止日前也不顧一切地想換到吉米-巴特勒或者保羅-喬治。為了他們中任意一人，我們願意付出四個首輪選秀權，只是交易沒有達成罷了。

[–]NBAANON240934 0 指標 9小時前

This. I think both the Raps and Clippers will probably be screwed in a few years with those contracts and CP3"s and Lowry"s injury histories. The Hawks have obviously shown that they are willing to let talent walk away if the price is too high. Clearly they aren"t in win-now mode, so it makes sense to let Milsap walk if he really nets a long-term max contract from someone.

鑒於保羅和洛瑞的傷病史和下一份巨大合同，我想猛龍和快船的未來幾年大概會被毀掉。老鷹則明顯表示出，如果價格太高昂，他們寧可讓天賦球員出走。他們顯然不在立刻爭冠的模式，所以如果米爾薩普在別處網羅到一份長期頂薪合約的話，那麼讓他走掉是合理的。

[–][TOR] Kyle LowryRZAAMRIINF 6 指標 9小時前*

Unlike Clippers, we have a lot of assets. And Kyle"s injury history is nowhere near CP3"s history.

（猛龍蜜）不像快船，我們手頭有一大堆資產。並且洛瑞的傷病史遠不像保羅的。

[–]NBAANON240934 2 指標 9小時前

Well you already have Demare Carroll"s contract as an albatross, so getting a second one if Lowry degrades would be pretty devastating, especially since I expect Ibaka is also getting a huge contract this off season. If the Raptors have to rebuild with all of those contracts becoming non-productive/un-tradable, it"s going to be a very long rebuild.

然鵝你龍已經有了德馬雷-卡羅爾的頂薪負擔了，所以如果再加上一份洛瑞的而洛瑞又退化，那後果就能災難性的。特別是我預計伊巴卡在這個賽季結束也會得到一份大合同。如果猛龍帶著這些逐漸變得低效/不可交易的合同重建，那麼重建期將會極其漫長。

[–][TOR] Kyle LowryRZAAMRIINF 2 指標 9小時前

Demarre has 2 more years of contract and despite that he hasn"t met expectations, he is not Deng or Mozgov. He still will get 28+ minutes because of his hustle and no one wants to dump him at this point.

Yes we will offer Ibaka and Lowry but we already have Norm/Jakob/Delon/Siakam which all have great potential. We are the 3rd youngest team in NBA and we don"t owe any pick to anyone. That"s way different than Clippers.

Kyle and Ibaka can still be great for 3 more season, their last 2 season probably not. Given how great Masai has been with his picks, I"m pretty confident we won"t go through a long rebuild.

卡羅爾的合同還有兩年，而且儘管他並未達到預期，他也不算鄧或者莫茲戈夫。因為他的活力， 和暫時沒人想把他移出陣容，他仍然會拿到28+分鐘的上場時間。

對的，我們會為伊巴卡和洛瑞開出續約合同，但我們已經有了鮑威爾/珀爾特爾/賴特/西亞卡姆這幾個潛力滿滿的小夥子。我們有NBA第三年起的隊伍而且我們不欠任何人任何選秀權。這是我們和快船的不同之處。

洛瑞和伊巴卡可以繼續堅挺三個賽季，他們剩下的兩個賽季可能就不那麼行了。考慮到我們的總經理烏傑里之前機智的選秀表現，我很確信我們不會經歷一個太長的重建期。

[–]HawksPersonacorona 2 指標 9小時前

I think we are in win-now mode, that"s why we wanted to offer 4 first round picks for PG or Jimmy Butler

（鷹蜜）我覺得我們正處於贏在當下模式，這就是為什麼我們會想要拿四個首輪去換保羅-喬治或者吉米-巴特勒。

[–]NBAANON240934 1 指標 9小時前

Fifth place in the East isn"t contention. Plus, if Atlanta was in win-now mode, ignoring all costs, you wouldn"t have done the Korver trade.

東部第五可不是爭冠的表現。順便，如果亞特蘭大確實現在就想要贏球，不管如何，你們不應該把科沃爾交易走。

[–]HawksPersonacorona 3 指標 9小時前

「Fifth place in the East isn"t contention.」

So we"re not good, ok. But not being good doesn"t mean that we don"t want to win now, don"t know how on earth you connected the too. That doesn"t mean that we don"t want to be good. If we had PG or Jimmy Butler we would be a 60 win team and that"s what we tried to get, offering 4 first round picks to get one of them.

「Plus, if Atlanta was in win-now mode, ignoring all costs, you wouldn"t have done the Korver trade.」

Korver was very clearly declining for us and he was 36, and also a FA. It makes sense to try to trade him off before he potentially left us for nothing this summer. Wouldn"t you consider a first rounder for a 6 month rental a good thing?

People here really know close to nothing about our team and it infuriates me to see them try to talk about us.

「東部第五用不上爭。」

所以我鷹不夠好，我承認。但是現在不夠好不意味著我們不想現在就贏，我不知道你是咋想的才能把這倆整在一塊兒。這不意味著我們現在不想變好。如果我們有了喬治或者巴特勒，我們就會成為一支60勝的球隊，而這就是我們想要做到的，提供四個首輪就為換來他倆之一。

「順便，如果亞特蘭大確實現在就想要贏球，不管如何，你們不應該把科沃爾交易走。」

科沃爾非常明確地不想留隊，再說他已經36歲了，還將成為自由球員。嘗試交易他是合理的，因為他可能夏天啥都不留就離開我們。難道你不會考慮出租一個好寶貝六個月以換來一個首輪秀么？

這裡的JRs對我鷹實在是幾乎一無所知，而他們還要試圖對我們評頭論足，這讓我完全不能忍。

[–]RaptorsShogun_Ro 7 指標 9小時前*

Lowry is too important for our team. I understand he is getting old and the latter half of that contract is not gonna be worth it but we will simply crumble without him.

I hope masai can work some magic and make him take a little less (around 170-180 million). It will have little impact on our capspace either way but it may help the team if Masai trades Cory, Val and Carroll in the offseason to free up space for Ibaka, Patterson and Tucker.

洛瑞對我龍太重要了。我理解他在慢慢變老，而下一份合同的後半段將會不值得。但沒了他我們就要翻車了。

我希望總經理烏傑里能搞出些花兒來，讓洛瑞少拿一點點（大概一千七、八百萬美元）。這能讓我們的薪資空間寬鬆一點點。但如果烏傑里在休賽期為了給伊巴卡、帕特森和塔克釋放空間而交易走約瑟夫、瓦蘭丘納斯和卡羅爾，那這一點點可能更會幫助到球隊。

[–]Toronto Huskiescoolassninjas 5 指標 8小時前

He was also having his best season yet and we"ve said that every season the past 4 years. Not a traditional career of a 31 year old star and I think his game lends itself to mature into a very solid 3rd option player who can shoot 3s, play solid defense, and run an offense.

洛瑞這賽季還在打出生涯最佳表現，而過去的四年里我們年年這麼說。這不是一個31歲球星的傳統生涯軌跡，而我相信他會愈發老司機，變成一個可以射三分，防守棒，還能跑一套進攻戰術的螺旋穩三當家。

[–]RaptorsShogun_Ro 5 指標 8小時前

Plus he is super efficient on offense, he is becoming more of a shooter and less of a bulldog. Which will help him in the long run.

再加上他在進攻端的超高效，他正變得更像射手而更少靠身體碾壓。長遠看這會對他有好處的。

[–][LAL] Ivica Zubacjimmcdermont 8 指標 9小時前

Should they sign these players to the 5 year max? No. That"s not optimal.

Will these players end up getting 4 or 5 year maxes offered anyways? Probably. It lets them retain talent even if it"s expensive

I don"t see these players taking anything worse than a (near) 4 year max.

他們應該給這些球員五年頂薪么？不應該。這不是最優解。

這些球員有可能最後還是拿下了一份四年或五年頂薪么？有可能。這讓球隊留下了天賦，儘管代價不菲。

我看不到這些球員會拿到比（接近）四年頂薪還差一些的合同的可能。

[–]dropdatdurkadurk 7 指標 9小時前*

1) The only one out of these 3 where I think the idea of maxing them is so risky I would be willing to let them just walk if I had no other choice but to full max is Paul Millsap.

That"s truly going to be an awful contract the last few years for a borderline top 25 player not some first team All NBA player. Honestly in say December 2019....will Millsap even be more than an average caliber starting 4? And Atlanta is the last team that it makes sense to give such a deal. A team like Cleveland in win now mode at all costs with a legit title contender? Maybe. Atlanta? No way

2) CP3 is largely fine on a max. He"s played well enough where there"s actually a decent chance he provides legitimate value on that deal his first two years. LAC was 30-15 with him and no Blake last year: the parts around him can be interchangeable and he alone can in many ways carry you to a good team(although DAJ was crucial also). And the last 2-3 years of that deal there"s a decent chance wont be so awful that you cant stomach it. With how he"s already kind of defied age, you hope maybe for somewhat of a Steve Nash type aging curve.

3) Lowry is another guy who that 5 year max isnt going to be a good contract the last few years but Toronto really has no choice. They"re all in now, this is their time and what theyve waited so long for. You dont just make these trades and have arguably your best team in franchise history just to let your key franchise player walk over money. And yes....Toronto without Lowry....it all just falls apart

1）這三個老哥裡面，唯一一個如果我別無選擇只能頂薪，那麼風險太大我寧願放他白白走掉的，是保羅-米爾薩普。

對於那些非一陣的，聯盟排名前25的邊緣球星們，頂薪合同的最後兩三年會變得糟糕透頂。老實說，想像一下2019年12月……米爾薩普還能維持一個平均首發四號位的水準么？而亞特蘭大是最沒有理由給出這樣一份合同的球隊。如果是像騎士這樣願意付出一切贏得當下的爭冠球隊，會給出長期頂薪合同么？有可能。亞特蘭大？沒門兒。

2）保羅拿頂薪沒啥問題。他打得足夠好，並且有很大可能他在新合同的前兩年物有所值。上賽季，快船在有他而格里芬缺陣的情況下拿到了30勝15負：保羅周遭的球隊架構是可以有變數的，而單獨他一人就可以花式帶出一支強隊（儘管另一方面小喬丹也至關重要）。而合同的剩餘兩三年里，他的表現很可能並不會糟到讓你不能忍的地步。考慮保羅已經有不服老的跡象了，你或許可以期待他有一條類似納什的老化曲線。

3）洛瑞是另一個會讓五年頂薪合同變得不值的球員，但多倫多別無選擇。他們已傾盡一切，他們苦苦等待了很久，而這就是他們的機會。你不能交易掉一個可能是你隊史最強的球員，更不可能因為錢的原因放走球隊的關鍵人物、而且的確...沒有洛瑞的猛龍...一切將分崩離析。

[–]PyrrhosKing 3 指標 9小時前

The post seems to be more about what Atlanta should be doing than whether they"re actually in win now mode right now. Also, why will Millsap decline at the same rate as Lebron? What is the science behind that? Lebron and Millsap being the same age isn"t evidence they will decline similarly.

這個帖子本來想討論亞特蘭大應該做什麼，卻似乎歪樓成了他們是不是想贏在當下。並且，為什麼米爾薩普能和勒布朗以相同的速率老化？這背後是什麼科學原理？勒布朗和米爾薩普同歲並不能推出他們會一起慢慢變老。

[–]LakersJakanzi 3 指標 9小時前

Yea those are all going to be bad contracts if they get the 5 year max. I"m curious to see if they actually get it. Like is there really a team out there that"s going to give Millsap that amount of money? Or Lowry? Who would Atlanta and Toronto be competing with in the market?

如果這些球員都拿到五年頂薪，那通通都會變成壞合同的。我很好奇如果他們是否會拿到頂薪。真的會有一支球隊打算給米爾薩普那麼一大筆錢么？或者洛瑞？老鷹和猛龍在市場上要和誰去競爭呢？

[–]Lakerspickprotection[S] 7 指標 9小時前

Philly would offer Lowry the 4 year max I would think.

我想76人會為洛瑞開出一份四年頂薪的。

[–]LakersJakanzi 2 指標 9小時前

Hmm, that"s an interesting idea. It"s hard to see Lowry leaving for a rebuilding team though. Without knowing how the lottery shakes out and if they"ll be in position to draft a PG, it"s hard to say who Philly will go after.

嗯，這想法很有趣。儘管很難看到洛瑞為了一支重建球隊而離隊。在不知道選秀抽籤結果如何，從而不能確定是否有簽位可以抽到一名控衛的前提下，很難說76人會去追逐誰。

[–]NBAANON240934 2 指標 9小時前

I think there are a lot of teams that would offer Lowry that money. Dallas and Denver would be the top of my list for who would offer Lowry a max. I could see Chicago doing it too (even though they really should be rebuilding).

Fewer teams would offer Milsap a max, especially after Toronto got Ibaka. Maybe Washington or Charlotte?

我覺得會有一大票球隊願意用錢淹沒洛瑞的。在我的榜單上，小牛和掘金是最有可能為洛瑞開出頂薪的球隊。我預料公牛這會這麼干（儘管他們實在是該重建了）。

會為米爾薩普開頂薪的球隊就少了一些，特別是在猛龍得到伊巴卡之後。可能奇才或者黃蜂？

[–]HawksPersonacorona 2 指標 9小時前

How is Lowry a better player? Lowry"s real advantage over Sap is three point shooting. Their 2 point shooting is basically a wash. Sap is a better rebounder (duh), and Lowry has more assists (duh). Sap is averaging only 4 points less than Kyle (as a power forward). But he"s a much better defender than Kyle. So how is Kyle really better?

洛瑞怎麼就是個更好的球員了？洛瑞比起薩普唯一的優勢就在於三分投射。他們的兩分投射差不多彼此抵消了。薩普是個更好的籃板手（廢話），而洛瑞送出的助攻更多（廢話）。薩普場均只比洛瑞少4分（還是作為一個大前鋒）。但他是個比洛瑞好得多的防守者。所以洛瑞到底好在哪兒了？

[–][TOR] Kyle LowryRZAAMRIINF 3 指標 9小時前

Their 2 point shooting is basically a wash

And now I"m sure you don"t know who Kyle Lowry is. Also there are better ways to show your lack of intelegence than comparing a guard and PF on defence. Kyle is one of the best defenders in his position in NBA. His defencive numbers are better than John Wall. What"s next on your list? Howard is a better defender than CP3?

And btw, I like how you simply ignore Kyle"s shooting because he is the most efficent guard in the league and please lets not compare their facilitating because Kyle has one of the best assist to to ratios in the league on 7 assists.

「他們的兩分投射差不多彼此抵消了。」

好了，現在我確定你壓根不認識凱爾-洛瑞了。同時，放下你居然比較一個後衛和一個大前的防守不談，現在有更好的方式來證明你智商實在捉急。洛瑞在他的位置上是聯盟最好的防守者之一。他的防守數據要好於沃爾。你的小本本上下一項寫著啥？霍華德是個比保羅更好的防守者？

順便，我很喜歡你就那麼無視了洛瑞的投射能力，因為他可是聯盟最有效率的後衛。也請不要再輕易比較他們對進攻的加成了，因為洛瑞在送出場均7助攻的同時，還有著聯盟最好的助攻失誤比之一。

[–]Bullswylin247 3 指標 9小時前

I trust cp3 the most with that max contract, I think his game is Built perfectly for an aging player. Yes he has an injury history but I think he can have j kidd type of impact well into his late 30s.

面對頂薪合同，我最相信保羅，我覺得他的比賽方式對於一名正在老化的球員而言簡直完美。他的確有傷病史，但我想他在奔四晚期可以產生類似基德對比賽的影響。

[–]ThunderGuardzillaGOAT 2 指標 9小時前

I would be weary of Lowry on a max contract as well as Millsap. CP3 isn"t ideal at age 34+ earning $40 million plus but he does have a great body of work, an excellent resume and basketball IQ off the charts.

He may be able to adapt his game better than most to compensate for age related declines but his injury history is definite cause for concern. It"s a very tricky situation

洛瑞和米爾薩普的頂薪合同會讓我厭煩的。34歲拿著4000萬美元年薪的保羅並不是最理想的情況，但他的確實身體鍛煉的不錯，完美的履歷表，和數據不能表現的籃球智商。

他或許能比大多數人更好地調整場上表現以適應老化，但他的傷病史也確實令人擔憂。這會是個兩難的局面啊。

[–][TOR] Kyle LowryRZAAMRIINF 1 指標 9小時前

Have you seen Lowry"s body (booty)? He is a tank. He is a better shooter than CP3 and he is a great facilitator (obviously not on CP3 level but who is on CP3 level anyway?) plus he has played way less minutes in his career than CP3 and he has been less injury prone.

I say the risks are the same for Lowry and CP3, but I"m confident that both of them will be worth at least 3 years of their contracts. The 4th year depends on how much they get injured.

你有看過洛瑞的身板（屁屁）么？他可是個小坦克。他是比保羅更好的射手，也是很好的進攻催化劑（顯然不能和保羅一檔，但誰又能和保羅一檔呢？），而且他的生涯總出場時間比保羅少得多，傷病起伏也更少。

我會說保羅和洛瑞拿頂薪合同的風險是相同的，但我很確信他們兩人的合同前三年都會是物有所值的。第四年則要看他們的傷病情況了。

[–]WizardsblitzKriegzzz 2 指標 9小時前

wtf CP3 is only 1 year older than lowry

卧了個大槽，保羅只比洛瑞大一歲？

我們的公眾號：ChinaReddit，還處於成長之中~，微博：虎撲JRS字幕組~

希望得到您更多的改善建議和支持！

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