比特幣再暴漲也別入坑！這位外國專家給出5大原因

科技 06-08

近期，比特幣的價格出現暴漲，這使得它再一次成為了熱點話題。不過，仍然有些人對比特幣持懷疑態度，而且他們的懷疑是有理由的。Lily Katz 日前在 Bloomberg 上發表了題為「Five Big Reasons Why People Are Still Skeptical About Bitcoin」的文章，詳解了人們對比特幣仍持懷疑態度的五大原因。

本文為雙語文章，且文後有對重點辭彙的解析。以下為正文。

Naysayers point to decline that followed steep climb in 2013.

比特幣的否定者認為，比特幣價格在2013年瘋狂攀升到頂峰，之後迎來下跌。

Dot-com bubble and tulip craze show past market corrections.

比特幣類似於互聯網公司泡沫和鬱金香狂熱，而市場終將會糾錯。

Bitcoin』s astronomical rally has cryptocurrency bulls feeling vindicated. Not so fast, skeptics say.

比特幣價格反彈驚人，彷彿宣告了加密貨幣春天的來臨。不過有人質疑：恐怕牛市的到來還沒那麼快。

The digital currency』s more than 100 percent surge in the past two months looks eerily familiar, argue the bears, pointing to November 2013, when the price quintupled in short order to top $1,000 for the first time. By Valentine』s Day it was worth around half that, and spent the better part of the next two years languishing below $500.

看跌者表示，在過去兩個月里比特幣價格躥高了一倍有餘，帶給人的是一種詭異的熟悉感——2013年11月，比特幣價格一度猛漲五倍至1000美元觸頂，而到情人節前後這一數字就已腰斬，隨後兩年中的大部分時間，比特幣價格一直在500美元以下徘徊。

Then it absolutely exploded -- jumping more than $1,400 in two months. At its height last week, one bitcoin could buy about two ounces of gold. Its champions touted the arrival of blockchain into the mainstream, the coin』s underlying technology which they say can lift the poor out of poverty and make transactions more secure, inexpensive and efficient.

這次又是爆炸式的增長——兩個月內價格猛漲，超過了1400美元。在上周價格最高的時候，一個單位的比特等價於兩盎司的黃金。其支持者吹捧著區塊鏈技術，把它主流化，他們吹噓道：區塊鏈技術作為比特幣的技術基礎能幫助人們脫貧致富，讓交易更加安全、平價、高效。

But signs of a top have emerged, detractors warn. On May 25, bitcoin surged more than $300 to a record only to turn tail and close little changed. The $600 round trip was the biggest daily swing in its history. It then slumped 8 percent the next day. Bitcoin was down 1.5 percent to $2,255.50 as of 12:35 p.m. in New York. For bears, that kind of volatility shows the asset』s unreliability as a store of value.

但批評的聲音也警告說，這一波行情的峰值已經出現。5月25日，比特幣價格大漲300美元，創下歷史新高後立即回彈，收盤價幾乎沒有什麼變化。大漲大跌600美元創下了比特幣歷史上最大單日波動。5月26日，比特幣價格就下挫了8%，紐約時間下午12點35分，比特幣價格下降1.5個百分點到2255.50美元。對看跌者來說，這樣的波動性表明，比特幣不適合作為一種價值貯藏的手段。

比特幣再暴漲也別入坑！這位外國專家給出5大原因

Here are some other reasons why they warn caution is warranted:

他們警告人們謹慎對待比特幣很有必要，還有其他幾個原因：

Safety Questions 安全問題

This month』s ransomware attacks serve as a reminder that bitcoin is still beloved by hackers and criminals because of its anonymity. The cryptocurrency plunged in 2014 after Tokyo-based Mt. Gox -- then the largest bitcoin exchange -- said it had been breached and then filed for bankruptcy. Its value sank again in August 2016 after hackers stole about $69 million from Hong Kong-based Bitfinex. The exchange has since repaid its customers.

本月爆發的勒索病毒攻擊事件警示人們：黑客和罪犯由於其匿名性而對比特幣十分偏愛。東京的Mt. Gox是當時最大的比特幣交易平台，2014年因違規而申請破產後，加密貨幣的價格急跌。2016年8月，在香港的Bitfinex被黑客盜竊6900萬後，Mt. Gox的價值進一步縮水。該平台已經償還了其顧客的損失。

Scaling Debate 規模辯論

The bitcoin community has been split for more than a year on how to upgrade its blockchain. The time and fees necessary to verify transactions have climbed to record highs, making it more difficult for businesses to use the currency as a means of payment. While bitcoin executives have said that 2017 might be the year the cryptocurrency really starts to scale, others aren』t so sure.

比特幣界就如何升級其區塊鏈而產生分歧已經有1年多了。確保交易所需的時間和金錢已經攀升到了記錄最高點，這讓比特幣作為一種商業上的支付手段十分困難。雖然比特幣主管已經表示2017年也許是加密貨幣真正成氣候的一年，不過其他人不置可否。

Last week, more than 50 companies signed a pact to speed up transactions, but ideological differences have prevented similar agreements -- like the one reached last year in Hong Kong -- from actually being implemented. The much-touted SegWit upgrade was also released in October, but only a third of the community has embraced it. If the latest proposal fails to gain traction and the deadlock continues, digital currency users may dump bitcoin in favor of alt-coins that offer better blockchains.

上周，超過50家公司簽訂了加速交易的協定，但思想差異可能會使這類協議在落實起來困難重重——就像去年在香港達成的那份協議一樣。備受吹捧的SegWit升級協議於10月份出爐，但業界採納的公司不過三分之一罷了。如果這份最新的協議仍舊不能形成合力打破僵局，數字貨幣的用戶們可能會拋棄比特幣，轉而成為有著更好區塊鏈技術的其他加密貨幣（如以太幣、瑞波幣等）的擁躉。

比特幣再暴漲也別入坑！這位外國專家給出5大原因

Rival Digital Currencies 棋逢對手

As the surge sends the cryptocurrency world into a frenzy, it can be easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. While bitcoin』s value has increased more than 100 percent since the beginning of the year, its slice of the pie has shrunk as its digital cousins steal some of the spotlight. There are an estimated 700 rivals, according to Ron Quaranta, chairman of the Wall Street Blockchain Alliance.

加密貨幣大爆發，整個幣界群魔狂舞，稍不留神就錯觀全局。雖然自年初以來比特幣價格漲幅超過一倍，但其他電子貨幣粉墨登場，硬生生分走了比特幣的蛋糕份額。華爾街區塊鏈聯盟主席Ron Quaranta預計，比特幣的對手有不下700個。

Bitcoin dominated about half of the overall digital currency market as of Friday, down from around 85 percent in February, according to data from CoinMarketCap.com. Meanwhile, Ethereum』s share increased to about 20 percent. Some token fans aren』t sweating it though, as they say bitcoin』s potential demise doesn』t really matter as long as another digital currency takes hold.

CoinMarketCap.com的數據顯示，截至周五，比特幣仍佔據著電子貨幣市場的半壁江山，但二月份的時候，它還坐擁著85%的市場份額。同時，以太幣的份額上升到了20%。不過這些電子貨幣的擁躉們卻並不擔心這個，他們表示只要有另外的電子貨幣在，比特幣的潛在失敗無關緊要。

Not Recognized By Governments 不被當局認可

The general public doesn』t understand bitcoin, and many regulators still don』t either, which makes it tough to regulate. In 2015, New York started issuing controversial licenses to cryptocurrency companies, but only three had been issued as of mid-January, according to Coinbase, as many startups couldn』t afford the costs of applying.

大眾對比特幣其實是不了解的，許多監管者也是，這就使監管頗具難度。2015年，紐約市開始對加密貨幣公司頒發執照，這一舉動引發了爭議。但根據Coinbase的消息，紐約市直到一月中期也只發放了三份執照，因為對許多剛起步的公司來說，申請執照的費用過高，它們難以承擔。

In January, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority asked the public for help identifying the potential risks of blockchain. Two months later, bitcoin plummeted after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rejected a proposal by the Winklevoss twins for a publicly traded fund based on the digital currency.

一月份的時候，美國金融業監管局向公眾尋求幫助，希望能夠找到區塊鏈的潛在風險。又過了兩個月，在文克萊沃斯兄弟一項基於電子貨幣的公開交易基金的提案被美證監會否決後，比特幣價格暴跌。

比特幣再暴漲也別入坑！這位外國專家給出5大原因

In a report last week about blockchain in China, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein wrote that while the technology could benefit Chinese banks, it』s unlikely to start a financial revolution.

上周中國關於區塊鏈的一篇報道中，Sanford C. Bernstein的分析員寫道，儘管這項技術會使中國銀行受益良多，但這樣的改革在中國金融界恐怕難以展開。

"We believe blockchain application is more likely to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary in developing countries like China," the analysts said. "Aside from the conservative regulatory attitudes toward financial innovations, the constraint of confidentiality and performance of blockchain technology would make it best positioned to be enterprise-oriented rather than consumer-end."

「我們相信對中國這樣的發展中國家來說，區塊鏈技術的應用更多的是進步而非革命，」分析員表示，「除了對金融創新的保守監管態度，區塊鏈科技保密和績效的限制可能使其最佳定位不在消費端而在企業端。」

Bubbles Burst 泡沫風險

Whether it』s Holland』s tulip-bulb craze in the 17th century or the Internet-stock frenzy of the late 1990s, history shows that markets self correct. Speculative markets usually run out of steam at some point. Determining the trigger is always the hard part. Given the breathtaking run in bitcoin as of late, some say it』s tough to believe the oft-cited mantra that this time is different.

不管是17世紀荷蘭的鬱金香狂熱還是20世紀90年代晚期的互聯網股票泡沫，歷史總是展示了長期中市場自我糾正的能力。投機市場總會玩脫，而把握住臨界點則是難上加難。人們常常把「這次不一樣」掛在嘴邊，不過考慮到最近比特幣的熱火朝天，這句話可能並不那麼令人信服。

重點辭彙