高盛報告：建設明日粵港澳大灣區紐約灣區、東京灣區、舊金山灣區比較

新聞 07-11

【小編俺】這是官媒的指標，那麼未來的變化如何呢？未來的投資機會在哪裡，不信官媒，看看高盛的報告。

We see value creation from building Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau (GHM) into the next San Francisco Bay for the 『New China』

economy. We believe the GHM Bay Area will provide both a blueprint for the nation』s city cluster development and a transition to boost

a greater number of successful companies in the homeland. Driven by innovation and greater regional integration, the multi-core

development plan allows each of the 11 GHM cities to have unique strengths and enhances complementary advantages in the region,

thus moving them up the industry value chain. A solid macro outlook, coupled with a handful of world-class transport projects

underway to drive a seamless connection in and out of the region, will bolster the local property market, in our view.

Why GHM matters to you

Gateway to China: Since its reform and opening up in the 1970s, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau (GHM) region has been the keychannel for foreign investments to enter China, and it is now an avenue for mainland enterprises to become more global.

Super scale to super power: GHM occupies 1% of China』s land mass, but accommodates 5% of the population and contributes 12%of GDP. Its aggregate GDP reached USD1.35tn in 2016, which would be ranked No. 12 globally if we were to consider it as a country.

GHM has surpassed overseas bay areas such as San Francisco, New York and Tokyo in terms of land area and population size, leadsdomestic regions in terms of population density and productivity, and is also the home to numerous successful and worldrenownedChinese companies including Tencent, Huawei, Pingan, Vanke, BYD and Gree. Now, it has been assigned nationalimportance to form a world-class bay area, taking the driver seat for growth of the 『New China』 economy.

Value creation from forming a 『Bay Area』 for the 『New China』 economy and thriving property marketWhile GHM has already established its leading position as the key manufacturing base in China, there are still some roadblocks

(such as repetition of certain industries, imbalanced development within the region, and still relatively low to mid-end focused) thatneed to be removed for GHM to further move up the value chain. The government』s 『bay area initiative』 stresses external links andan open economic structure. It also features highly effective resources allocation and better industry delineation. We believe these

will gradually increase its share of the global profit pool. Taking overseas bays such as San Francisco Bay (which also adopts aninnovation-based growth model) as prototypes, we believe the successful development of the GHM Bay Area will provide both ablueprint for the nation』s city cluster development and a foundation for lifting the competitiveness of the GHM region to rivalleading bay areas worldwide – a transition with significant investment opportunities.

? Boost greater number of successful companies: GHM is currently home to 18 of the Fortune 500 companies, and we expectthese established industry leaders to continue to grow their brands and influence globally. Their success should bring greaterinvestment and business demand into GHM, thereby enabling other domestic players to scale up and develop innovation and

technology capabilities, eventually creating more successful companies in GHM in the near future.

? Bolster local property market: We expect the positive macro to build into a solid real-estate demand growth trajectory and drivethe total capital value of Shenzhen (the leading GHM city)』s real estate market to double to USD4tn by 2025E from USD2tn in2016. Therefore, if we were to use Shenzhen』s ASP as the benchmark and take the property price distribution pattern in thedual-core model SF Bay Area as reference (e.g. narrowing the ASP premium for core city against remaining areas in the Bay toc.1X from the current 3.8X in GHM), we estimate the implied potential ASP growth in the rest of the GHM cities in Guangdongwould be avg. 16% CAGR in 2017E-2025E. This will in turn lead to avg. 30% NAV increase from our base case for the top threebeneficiaries, namely Logan, CMSK and OCT, in our coverage universe.