彭博：看看蘋果的現金流 為什麼中國接管海航復興萬達安邦等土豪的現金牆他們就崩潰了！王健林承認借了2000億，是小問題

彭博專欄作家：看看蘋果 為什麼中國接管海航復興萬達安邦等商業大亨的現金牆就崩潰了！ 王健林承認借了2000億，是小問題

每次回鄉下，都會聊起鄉下一些哥們兄弟的事情。尤其是企業的事情，而每次都是首先聊起張家哥們又買了豪車了，李家哥們有搞了一個二奶。但再詳細問下去，發現其實企業根本不行，都是吃了上頓沒下頓。而要搞這些的目的呢，是為了顯示自己有錢，資金根本不是問題，最後目的不是從銀行要更多的貸款就是借來更多的高利貸。

這其實和萬達王健林等這些土豪有些類似，看起來天天灣流飛機飛的，和那個瘦的和狐狸精一樣的美女在飛機上開開心心，但其實都是高負債運行，3個茶壺2個蓋，依靠銀行不斷的貸款生活，萬達和各個土豪的模式無非就是從地方政府低價甚至免費拿地，然後地抵押給銀行，銀行不斷給錢，然後房子繼續抵押，反正就是一輪一輪的下去，這樣的模式在一個不算上升的環境下屢試不爽，核心是高負債，反正資產漲價，你借到了就是未來的利潤。但當經濟向下的時候，萬達模式玩不轉了，而當把國內的錢通過內保外貸弄下海外的時候，有關部門毫不留情掐斷了這些土豪的銀行來源，他們的死期也就不遠了。

昨天，網上流傳的一個評論真的比較符合王健林們的過去！

因為在他們的模式中，根本沒有想到過要換錢。

王健林稱，本次轉讓後，萬達商業貸款加債券近2000億。萬達商業賬面現金1000億（不含13個文旅項目賬面現金300億），加本次轉讓收回現金680億（含回收往來款），現金共計約1700億。萬達商業決定清償大部分銀行貸款。萬達商業還有1300億銷售物業存貨，全部賣掉也可以收回幾百億。到年底，萬達商業持有3300萬平方米商業物業，2018年租金超過330億。今後5年，預計萬達商業租金年均增長20%左右。萬達商業究竟經營得好不好，大家可以自行判斷。

7月17日，國際三大評級機構之一的標普發布報告，將萬達商業評級列入負面觀察名單。評級為「BBB-」。

看看蘋果 假如美國的銀行掐斷蘋果

David fickling 是彭博社的專欄作家，他寫的一個東西很有可讀，比較一下蘋果以及美國公司的現金流，其實包括高通等大部分美國公司，都自己有著膨大的現金儲備和現金流，根本不是靠銀行借貸擴張。

如果銀行家突然關閉了進入蘋果的融資渠道，那會怎樣呢？iPhone製造商幾乎不會錯過一個節拍。除了稅收和流動性之外，Cook還可以用銀行存款和有價證券支付蘋果公司990億美元的債務，剩下的1580億美元現金用於資助無人駕駛汽車，並調整到下一個移動更新。而中國的這些土豪都是以融資過日！

To understand China s crackdown on the financing of acquisitive giants HNA Group Co., Fosun International Ltd., Dalian Wanda Group Co. and Anbang Insurance Group Co., take a look at Apple Inc.

Shares in companies associated with the first three plunged in Hong Kong and China Thursday. The China Banking Regulatory Commission has asked some banks to provide information on overseas loans to the firms, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News. That raises fears of a political attack on the businesses, and the tycoons who run them.

What would happen if Tim Cook s bankers suddenly turned off his access to Apple s finance capital? The iPhone maker would barely miss a beat. Barring a few wrinkles around tax and liquidity, Cook could pay off Apple s $99 billion of debts with bank deposits and marketable securities tomorrow and still have $158 billion of cash left over to fund driverless cars and tweaks to the next mobile update.

The Bank of Apple

Even after Apple broke a four-decade tradition in 2013 by starting to take on significant debts to pay off its shareholders, financing cash outflows over the past five fiscal years have come to almost $94 billion -- mostly money leaving Cupertino in the form of dividends and stock buybacks.

Apple s aversion to leverage is perhaps an outlying case -- but the Chinese giants love of borrowing is equally exceptional, if at the opposite extreme. A look at the cash flows of the past year s most acquisitive Western companies illustrates why.

Qualcomm Inc., Blackstone Group LP and Johnson & Johnson have undertaken the most cash takeovers in the U.S. over the past 12 months, with a collective $123 billion of deals announced, pending or completed. Have a look at those firms finances and you notice a common theme: Free cash flows are almost always in the black.

Paying for Freedom

Free cash flows at the most cash-acquisitive U.S.companies are all consistently positive

Source: Bloomberg

Note: Fiscal years have been aligned to the nearest calendar year. So, for instance, J&J s year ending January 2017 is shown as 2016.

That s the standard and sensible way to run a company. If you re going to be laying out large amounts of money on takeovers, you want to ensure that underlying operating and capital costs are covered by normal revenue to avoid digging yourself into an ever deeper debt hole.

Now take a look at the big three Chinese companies (excluding Anbang, which doesn t publish financial statements):

Money Pit

Free cash flows at China s acquisitive giants have rarely broken into positive territory

Source: Bloomberg

Free cash has been consistently negative, and often by enormous sums. The number doesn t even include the cash spent paying for M&A itself, so if anything, it flatters the trio s performance.

That should be concerning to anyone lending to these businesses, including the growing number of non-Chinese institutions joining the club.

The real engine of these firms isn t the drudge-work of making profits from selling goods and services, but the art of persuading financiers to fund their investment ambitions. The show will go on for as long as bankers -- and particularly the key Chinese state lenders -- keep the cash spigots open.

Once that dries up, China s takeover tycoons will be left with a lot of plates in the air. If they fail to keep them all spinning, watch out for a crash.

最後看看這些土豪的負債率吧！（網路資料未經核實，大概如此）

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