保監會：未要求、計劃或安排安邦出售海外資產摩根士丹利：中國金融出清路線圖之二：比預想的快廣平已經成功一半

新聞 08-03

去年以來，各種信息真的挺雜亂的！

一會是王健林說先賺他1億元，1億是個小東西，一會王健林似乎要垮塌了

一會是安邦和買菜的夥計要買下所有的銀行和海外的資產，一會似乎他們也不行了。

一會要去所有的槓桿，煤炭鋼鐵等變狗屎，一會這些行業都飛起來了！

這幾天的混亂消息是關於安邦和萬達等海外資產。

海外買買買現在吐出來？

中國企業在過去的幾年中海外買買買是出了名的，而除了正常的資源型國家戰略的購買之外，安邦萬達等企業買了各種莫名其妙的資產，比如萬達的電影，資產質量一塌糊塗，然後當初的目的是第一把錢搞出去，第二把外面的各種概念重新打包回來A股騙錢。

安邦也是這樣的，用國內的保險資金內保外貸，買來一大堆和國家發展不合的東西，當這些資產出問題的時候，損失的就是國內老百姓，就是國內的金融體系。

所以本質上，這些傢伙做的就是不利於國家和政府的事情，是給國內莫名其妙加了槓桿。在目前去槓桿的大前提下，解決這些問題是必須的。因此，此前傳聞有關方面要求他們賣掉這些財產也是有邏輯的。

保監會

5分鐘前：

今天保監會發言人說，並未要求、計劃或安排安邦出售海外資產。

此前，外管局也否則了有關傳聞

外管局

5分鐘前：

中國證券網：外管局否認對幾家企業開展內保外貸業務調查

近日，有媒體報道稱，中國外匯局正在對安邦、海航、萬達、復星和浙江羅森內里投資公司境外收購涉及的內保外貸情況進行檢查。外匯管理局發布消息稱，目前，外管局並未針對媒體報道中的幾家企業開展內保外貸業務調查，相關報道情況不實。積極支持包括銀行和企業在內的市場主體開展真實合規的內保外貸業務。同時，將會同其他金融監管部門加強金融市場監管，指導金融機構加強內保外貸業務的合規管理和風險管理。嚴厲打擊虛假擔保和惡意擔保等違規行為，促進內保外貸業務的健康發展。

去槓桿的路剛走一半

從本質上，不管是安邦等海外的投資槓桿，還是房地產的槓桿、還是鋼鐵煤炭等槓桿，在政府的強烈推動下，供給側改革的方法還是挺行的。房地產，通過漲價槓桿從政府和企業轉移到了居民手中，煤炭鋼鐵，通過漲價和扼殺各種小企業，槓桿也消化了，而這些垃圾的消化，給銀行和保險這些金融機構極大的支撐。

世界上有樂觀者和悲觀者，看到一杯水，樂觀者說娃有半杯水，悲觀者說娃只有半杯水。去槓桿也是如此，悲觀者覺得雖然很成功，但還是只走了一半的路，國企的困境並沒有消除，民間的問題也是越來越大，比如p2p怎麼辦？小編自己不知道是樂觀者還是悲觀者，而摩根士丹利則認為：

摩根士丹利：中國金融出清路線圖二：比預想的要快，廣，平

結論：

過去三個月內發布的各種政策支持下，中國的金融體系出清工作已經涵蓋了所有類型的風險，接近完成了一半。

信貸增長可能在未來三個月反彈，我們看到十一月之後的回升，有利於優質銀行和保險公司。

With more policies issued in the past three months, China s financial system cleanup effort has covered all types of risks and is close to halfway done.

Credit growth could rebound over the next three months, but we see the effort picking up after November, benefiting quality banks and insurers.

1、Progress has been quicker, broader, and smoother in the past three months than we expected 比預想的要快、廣、平！

With more policies issued to contain risks in infrastructure credits, insurance, and M&A, we believe this round of China s financial cleanup has covered nearly all types of financial risks. In addition, we believe the cleanup process is close to halfway done vs. roughly one-third done around three months ago. Notable progress has been made in capital market deleveraging, liquidity mismatch reductions, rationalization of credit growth, and domestic and overseas acquisitions. We believe progress is even further along if credit risk digestion is included; NPL digestion in industrial and trade finance credits is likely over two-thirds done. We also believe more control and monitoring procedures have been put in place to prevent a major rebound in certain types of financial system risks. We believe efforts to improve financial system transparency and reduce regulatory arbitrage are still less than half done – regulators have taken a more gradual approach to reduce liquidity shock – but we believe credit data reporting to regulators has improved notably in recent months.

2、出清的步伐比較溫柔Some moderation in the pace of cleanup – potential pickup after November: Given the intensity in 1H17, we expect the pace of new policy issuance to slow as regulators assess the impact from recent policies on macro conditions and the financial system before the 19th Party Congress. We believe policy makers will also try to maintain stable liquidity and market rates during the assessment period. However, we do expect continued policy penalties on banks, securities firms, and local governments, based on recent examinations, to prevent resurgence of irregular financial practices.

We also expect a potential modest pickup in new policy issuance in late 2017 and 2018 – such as more comprehensive rules on asset management products, more comprehensive rules for financial firm shareholders as well as more intense examinations following some CBRC year-end reporting deadlines.

3、合格的銀行保險公司利好。Quality banks and insurance firms to benefit further; ROE rebound for brokers somewhat capped: We believe the quicker than expected progress on the financial system cleanup has proven that macro trends and policy coordination are better than the market expected, which also supports the success of continued cleanup effort. This would further improve asset yields and system transparency, supporting shares of quality banks and insurance firms. We prefer banks to insurers in the near term, in light of rising loan yields compared to relatively stable bond yields. CCB, ICBC, and CRCB are top picks within Chinese banks; CPIC is the top pick within Chinese insurers. For brokers there could be trading opportunities (especially for Galaxy and Huatai, which are more sensitive to trading （volume), but structural rebound is unlikely.