從卡特里娜到哈維：頁岩時代的颶風恢復能力
來源：哥大全球能源政策中心
哈
維颶風在休斯頓附近登陸三天之後，德克薩斯州內暴雨肆虐，造成嚴重的洪災。哥倫比亞大學全球能源政策中心高級研究員安托萬·哈爾夫(Antoine Halff) 發表了評論。他寫道，除了給當地人民帶來了自然災害的痛苦，颶風毀滅性的影響也強有力的提示著人們，無論在哪個國家，無論石油和天然氣產量有多高，都可能面臨能源供應突然中斷的風險。事實上，一個國家的油氣產量越大，其風險敞口就越大。近年來美國油氣產量增長迅速，特別是由於頁岩油氣在過去幾年中產量的急劇上升，使得石油煉化活動和成品油產量持續增加。這意味著美國能源在佔據「主導」地位的同時，也一定程度上加劇著美國能源面臨的風險。因此，安托萬·哈爾夫(Antoine Halff) 認為，當洪水退卻之時，能源公司和決策者不僅要評估新出現的風險，還要評估現有的應對措施和工具（如美國戰略石油儲備）的有效性。
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作者簡介
Antoine Halff
哥倫比亞大學全球能源政策中心高級研究員，全球石油市場研究項目主任。也是Kayrros能源市場預測分析公司的顧問和創始合伙人。Halff先生在加入哥大以前，曾任國際能源署（IEA）的首席石油分析師和月刊《石油市場報告》（OMR）和《年度中期石油市場報告》（MTOMR）的編輯。
T
hree days after Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Houston, Texas rains continue to lash the region, unleashing catastrophic flooding. In a new commentary, Senior Research Scholar Antoine Halff writes that apart from the human suffering, the storm』s devastating impact should also serve as a powerful reminder that no country, no matter how large its oil and gas production may be, is fully insulated from the risk of an energy supply disruption. Indeed, the larger a country』s production volumes, the greater its risk exposure. The flipside of US energy 『dominance』 -- and more specifically of the phenomenal US ramp-up in oil and gas production, refining activity and more specifically of the phenomenal US ramp-up in oil and gas production, refining activity and petrochemical output unleashed by shale in the last few years -- may thus paradoxically be, in some ways, heightened energy vulnerability. As such, Halff concludes, when the water finally recedes, energy companies and policy makers will have to evaluate not only newly exposed risks but also the effectiveness of existing response measures and tools such as the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
About the Author
Antoine Halffis a Senior Research Scholar and Director for Global Oil Markets at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. He is also an advisor and founding partner at Kayrros. Halff was previously the Chief Oil Analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA) and editor of the monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) and the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR).
