IMF發布2018年全球經濟增長預測——前景光明、市場樂觀、未來挑戰

最新 01-23

全球經濟活動持續穩固。據測算，2017年全球產出同比增長3.7%，增速較2017年秋季提高了0.1個百分點，較2016年提高了0.5個百分點。經濟增速回升擁有著廣泛的基礎，這包括了歐洲和亞洲出人意料的經濟上升。我們將2018和2019年的經濟增長預測調高0.2個百分點至3.9%。這一修訂反映了全球經濟強勁的增長勢頭，以及美國減稅所帶來的預期影響。

Global economic activity continues to firm up. Global output is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected in the fall and ? percentage point higher than in 2016. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent. The revision reflects increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved U.S. tax policy changes.

美國的稅收改革將刺激經濟活力，在短期內通過降低公司收入稅收這一渠道影響到美國國內的投資行為。減稅對美國經濟的積極影響將持續到2020年，伴隨著這一中心所產生的不確定性，2020年減稅對經濟增長的累計貢獻率將到達1.2%。隨著部分稅改條款到期，2022年之後稅改將對經濟增長產生抑制作用。美國稅改方案及其對貿易夥伴所產生的的一攬子溢出效應，將貢獻2018-2019年全球經濟增長額的一半。

The U.S. tax policy changes are expected to stimulate activity, with the short-term impact in the United States mostly driven by the investment response to the corporate income tax cuts. The effect on U.S. growth is estimated to be positive through 2020, cumulating to 1.2 percent through that year, with a range of uncertainty around this central scenario. Due to the temporary nature of some of its provisions, the tax policy package is projected to lower growth for a few years from 2022 onwards. The effects of the package on output in the United States and its trading partners contribute about half of the cumulative revision to global growth over 2018–19.

全球經濟增長的風險因素在短期內維持不變，在長期將呈現下行趨勢。從正面來看，這一反彈周期將在短期內不斷加強，得益於經濟活動的回升與更加寬鬆的融資環境之間所形成的相互影響。從負面因素來看，金融資產的高估值和受壓抑的風險溢價將會導致金融市場的崩潰，這會影響到經濟復甦的信心。一個可能的觸發因素是, 隨著需求的增加, 發達經濟體核心通脹和利率的增速將高於預期。如果全球復甦的情緒依然強勁, 通脹減弱, 那麼融資環境將可能在中期變得更加寬鬆, 導致發達國家和新興市場經濟體的金融脆弱性不斷增強。一些國家的內向型政策、地緣政治緊張局勢和政治不確定性也會帶來下行風險。

Risks to the global growth forecast appear broadly balanced in the near term, but remain skewed to the downside over the medium term. On the upside, the cyclical rebound could prove stronger in the near term as the pickup in activity and easier financial conditions reinforce each other. On the downside, rich asset valuations and very compressed term premiums raise the possibility of a financial market correction, which could dampen growth and confidence. A possible trigger is a faster-than-expected increase in advanced economy core inflation and interest rates as demand accelerates. If global sentiment remains strong and inflation muted, then financial conditions could remain loose into the medium term, leading to a buildup of financial vulnerabilities in advanced and emerging market economies alike. Inward-looking policies, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty in some countries also pose downside risks.

目前的周期性復甦為改革者們提供了一個理想的機會。所有的經濟體都在進行一項相似的結構型改革，以求提高產出和增長更具有包容性。在金融市場樂觀的環境下，確保金融彈性勢在必行。同時，財政政策應當著眼於中期目標，確保財政支出的可持續性並提高潛在產出。多邊合作依然是確保全球復甦的關鍵。

The current cyclical upswing provides an ideal opportunity for reforms. Shared priorities across all economies include implementing structural reforms to boost potential output and making growth more inclusive. In an environment of financial market optimism, ensuring financial resilience is imperative. Weak inflation suggests that slack remains in many advanced economies and monetary policy should continue to remain accommodative. However, the improved growth momentum means that fiscal policy should increasingly be designed with an eye on medium-term goals—ensuring fiscal sustainability and bolstering potential output. Multilateral cooperation remains vital for securing the global recovery.

美國：預期2020年美國的經濟增長率要比沒有稅改情況下高出1.2個百分點。2018年美國經濟增長率由2.3%提高至2.7%；2019年則由1.9%提高到2.5%。

Overall, the policy changes are projected to add to growth through 2020, so that U.S. real GDP is 1.2 percent higher by 2020 than in a projection without the tax policy changes. The U.S. growth forecast has been raised from 2.3 percent to 2.7 percent in 2018, and from 1.9 percent to 2.5 percent in 2019.

歐元區：許多歐元區國家的經濟增長率已經明顯上升，特別是德國、義大利和荷蘭，這反映出其強大的內外部需求。此前，西班牙的經濟增長率已在其潛力之上，但2018年預期會略有下降，反映出其政治不穩對信心和需求造成的負面影響。

Growth rates for many of the euro area economies have been marked up, especially for Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, reflecting the stronger momentum in domestic demand and higher external demand. Growth in Spain, which has been well above potential, has been marked down slightly for 2018, reflecting the effects of increased political uncertainty on confidence and demand.

發達國家：我們對2018-2019年發達國家的經濟增長預期進行了調整，這反映出亞洲發達國家的強勁增長，其對於全球貿易和投資的前景非常敏感。2018-19年日本經濟增長預期已經進行了調整，反映出改國外部需求強勁、2018年預算得到補充，以及比預期更為強勁的經濟復甦。

The growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 has also been revised up for other advanced economies, reflecting in particular stronger growth in advanced Asian economies, which are especially sensitive to the outlook for global trade and investment. The growth forecast for Japan has been revised up for 2018 and 2019, reflecting upward revisions to external demand, the supplementary budget for 2018, and carryover from stronger-than-expected recent activity.

2018-19年，亞洲新興市場國家的增長率均值為6.5%。，這與2017年大體持平。該地區貢獻了世界經濟增長的一半以上。預計中國經濟增長將會放緩（儘管相對於秋季的預測，上調了其2018-19的經濟增長預期），印度經濟增長回升，東盟五國保持大體穩定。

Emerging and developing Asia will grow at around 6.5 percent over 2018–19,broadly the same pace as in 2017. The region continues to account for over half of world growth. Growth is expected to moderate gradually in China (though with a slight upward revision to the forecast for 2018 and 2019 relative to the fall forecasts, reflecting stronger external demand), pick up in India, and remain broadly stable in the ASEAN-5 region.

數據匯總

美國2018年預期經濟增長率由2.3%上調至2.7%，2019年為2.5%；

中國2018年預期經濟增長率由6.5%上調至6.6%；

歐元區2018預期年經濟增長率由1.9%上調至2.2%；

日本2018年預期經濟增長率由0.7%上調至1.2%；

英國2018年預期增長率維持1.5%不變，將2019年預期經濟增長率下調至1.5%；

2018年和2019年全球經濟增長率由3.7%上調至3.9%。