誰知真相——與虛假信息作戰

My truth against yours

Waging war with disinformation

The power of fake news and undue influence

誰知真相

與虛假信息作戰

假新聞與不當影響的威力

「THERE IS NOTHING new about either fake news or Russian disinformation campaigns. Back in 1983, at the height of the cold war, an extraordinary story appeared in a little-known pro-Soviet newspaper called the Patriot. It claimed to have evidence that the Pentagon had deliberately created AIDS as a biological weapon and was ready to export the virus to other countries, mainly in the developing world, as a way of gaining control over them. Within a few years the story had reappeared in mainstream publications in more than 50 countries.」

「不管是虛假新聞還是俄羅斯信息戰都不是什麼新鮮話題。早在1983年冷戰進入白熱化的時候，一個鮮有人知的親蘇報紙《愛國者報》刊登了一則令人震驚的新聞。新聞稱有證據證明美國國防部蓄意製造出艾滋病毒將其作為生物武器，並準備將其出口到以發展中國家為主的其他國家，以取得對它們的控制權。這一消息在幾年內重複出現於50多個國家的主流刊物上。」

In February last year, in the wake of revelations about Russia』s interference in America』s presidential election but before the full extent of its activities on Facebook, Twitter and Google had become known, the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced that he had created units within the army to wage an information war: 「Essentially the information conflict is a component of general conflict. Deriving from that, Russia has made an effort to form structures that are engaged in this matter.」 He added that these were far more effective than anything Russia had used before for 「counter-propaganda」 purposes.

去年2月，俄羅斯干涉美國總統大選一事被披露。在其操縱臉書、推特、谷歌等網站新聞的所有行徑曝光之前，俄羅斯國防部長紹古伊宣布他已在俄軍隊組建了信息作戰部隊。紹古伊表示：「信息衝突本質上屬於一般衝突。因此，俄羅斯已組建部隊專門處理這一問題。」他還補充道這些部隊比俄羅斯之前的反宣傳機構更為有效。

A week earlier, General Petr Pavel, the Czech head of NATO』s military committee, had revealed that a false report of a rape by German soldiers in Lithuania had been concocted by Russia. The internet and social media are creating entirely new opportunities for influence operations (IO) and the mass manipulation of opinion. Those technologies allow IO accurately to target those people likely to be most susceptible to their message, taking advantage of the 「echo-chamber」 effect of platforms such as Facebook, where users see only news and opinions that confirm their prejudices.

一周前，北約軍事委員會主席、捷克將軍彼得·帕維爾透露，俄羅斯偽造了一則駐立陶宛的德國士兵實施強姦的報道。網路和社交媒體為操縱輿論、影響力操作提供了全新的溫床。這些技術使得影響力操作準確指向最易受其信息影響的群體，利用像臉書這樣的平台上的迴音室效應擴大其影響，因為這些社交平台上的用戶往往只能看到印證自己所懷成見的新聞和觀點。

Facebook now estimates that during and after the American election in 2016 a Russian-linked troll farm called the Internet Research Agency was responsible for at least 120 fake pages and 80,000 posts that were directly received by 29m Americans. Through sharing and liking, the number multiplied to nearly 150m, about two-thirds of the potential electorate. The ads aimed to exploit America』s culture wars. Similar IO have been launched in Europe, where Russia attempts to bolster support for populist movements that oppose liberal social norms.

現在，臉書估計在美國2016大選期間及結束之後，至少120頁虛假新聞和8萬網路帖是由一個與俄羅斯有關名為互聯網研究機構的「巨魔農場」發布的。2900萬美國人成為這些虛假內容的直接受眾，再通過不斷的轉發和點贊，這一人數翻倍至將近1億5000萬，大約相當於美國選民的三分之二。這些虛假新聞的目的在於發動美國的文化戰。此外，俄羅斯在歐洲也進行了類似的影響力，試圖擴大對民粹主義運動的支持，反對自由主義的社會規範。

（troll farm：「巨魔農場」 這個帶有貶義的名稱源於那些在網路上散播仇恨的人的綽號）

It is not just Russia that conducts IO against other countries. Jihadist extremists and hacker groups employed by rogue states or criminal networks pose similar if lesser threats. And although the big social-media companies now claim to be working on solutions, including better and quicker attribution of messages, Russian IO techniques are bound to adapt accordingly.

對其他國家實施影響力操作的不僅僅是俄羅斯。受雇於無賴政權或犯罪集團的聖戰極端分子和黑客組織所造成的威脅與前者不相上下。儘管現在社交媒體巨頭們宣稱正在研究解決辦法，包括更快、更有效地找到信息發布者，但俄羅斯的影響力操作技術也一定會隨之改進。

Rand Waltzman, a former programme manager at America』s Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and now at the RAND Corporation, explains that 「when target forces start to counter these [Russian] efforts and/or expose them on alarge scale, the Russians are likely to accelerate the improvement of their techniques…in other words, an information-warfare arms race is likely to ensue.」

蘭德·沃爾茲曼曾是美國國防部高級研究計劃局的一名項目經理，現就職於美國著名智庫蘭德公司。他解釋道：「當被操作者開始回擊（俄羅斯）或將其行為公之於眾時，俄羅斯很可能加快其技術更新…換言之，信息戰的軍備競爭可能隨之產生。」

In the future, 「fakenews」 put together with the aid of artificial intelligence will be so realistic that even the best-resourced and most professional news organisation will be hard pressed to tell the difference between the real and the made-up sort. Official websites and social-media accounts will become increasingly vulnerable to hackers, who may be able not only to provoke stock market crashes and riots but even contrivecrises between countries that may induce them to go to war with each other.

在未來，虛假新聞在人工智慧的助力下將使資源最豐富、最專業的新聞機構也難辨真假。官方網站和社交媒體賬號將越來越容易遭受黑客攻擊。他們不僅可以引發股市崩盤和暴亂，甚至可以挑動可能使兩國兵戎相見的危機。

原文：

The Economist，0127

譯者：

Queen T

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