拉丁美洲亟待改善基礎設施

Governments risk wasting a golden opportunity to improve the region』s transport, sanitation and energy systems

各國政府抓住黃金機會改善交通、衛生和能源系統，甘願冒險。

THE Transnordestina railway is supposed to carry soya beans, iron ore and other commodities from farms and mines in Brazil』s northeast to ports in Ceará and Pernambuco, and then on to markets in China. Brazil has spent more than 6bn reais ($1.8bn) on the project since work began a decade ago. But cows still amble along its unfinished tracks. In Lima and Bogotá workers can spend half as much time commuting as they do at the office. In Brito, a village on Nicaragua』s Pacific coast, there are no paved roads, electricity or running water. 「It』s like we』re still living in the era of Columbus,」 laments a fisherman.

Transnordestina鐵路公司將把大豆、鐵礦石和其他大宗商品從巴西東北部的農場和礦山運送到塞阿臘州和伯南布哥的港口，然後運往中國。10年來，巴西在該項目上投入逾60億雷亞爾(合18億美元)。但是牛仍然在它未完工的鐵軌上漫步。在利馬和波哥大，工人們要花上班的一半的時間上下班。在尼加拉瓜太平洋海岸的布里托村，沒有道路、電力或自來水。「就好像我們還生活在哥倫布時代，」一位漁民感嘆道。

Latin America is hobbled by its inadequate infrastructure. More than 60% of the region』s roads are unpaved, compared with 46% in emerging economies in Asia and 17% in Europe. Two-thirds of sewage is untreated. Poor sanitation and lack of clean water are the second-biggest killer of children under five years old, according to the World Health Organisation. Losses of electricity from transmission and distribution networks are among the highest in the world. Latin America spends a smaller share of GDP on infrastructure than any other region except sub-Saharan Africa (see chart).

拉美由於基礎設施薄弱而步履蹣跚。該地區60%以上的道路不平整，相比之下，亞洲新興經濟體的這利情況為46%，歐洲為17%。另外有三分之二的污水未經處理。世界衛生組織(WHO)的數據顯示，惡劣的衛生條件和缺乏清潔的飲用水是五歲以下兒童夭折的第二大因素。輸電和配電網路的電力損耗是世界上最高的。拉丁美洲在基礎設施方面的支出佔GDP的比例比其他任何地區都要小(見圖表)。

There are some bright spots. Chile』s roads are better than those of Belgium, New Zealand and China, according to the World Economic Forum. Uruguay』s electricity and telecoms outclass those in the United States and Canada. But in general, the quality of infrastructure is more of a drag on than a boost to Latin American economies. If the infrastructure of the region』s middle-income countries were as good as that in Turkey and Bulgaria, their growth rates would be two percentage points higher than they are, according to McKinsey, a consultancy.

積極的地方也還是有的。根據世界經濟論壇的數據，智利的道路要好於比利時、紐西蘭和中國。烏拉圭的電力和電信行業超過了美國和加拿大。但總體而言，基礎設施的質量不對拉美經濟推動力，而是拖累。諮詢機構麥肯錫表示，如果該地區中等收入國家的基礎設施與土耳其和保加利亞的基礎設施一樣好，它們的經濟增長率將再增加兩個百分點。

Recently a window of opportunity to upgrade it opened up. Global interest rates have been unusually low, which makes it cheap to raise money to repair old infrastructure or start new projects. Market-friendly presidents have taken office in several countries, including Brazil, Argentina and Peru. They have made improving infrastructure a priority. Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, Peru』s president since July 2016, promised to turn the country into a 「construction camp」. Mauricio Macri, elected Argentina』s president in 2015, launched an infrastructure plan called Plan Belgrano for the country』s poorly connected north. His cabinet chief, Marcos Pe?a, calls it 「the most ambitious in Argentina』s history」. In Colombia a promise to build rural infrastructure is part of the peace agreement between the government and the FARC, a leftist guerrilla group that had been at war with the state since 1964.

最近，有一個升級基礎設施的機會。在全球利率異乎尋常地低的情況下，籌集資金修復舊的基礎設施或啟動新項目的成本變得很低。在巴西、阿根廷和秘魯等國上台的領導人是市場派。他們把改善基礎設施作為頭等大事。自2016年7月以來，秘魯總統佩德羅·巴勃羅·庫琴斯基承諾將把該國變成一個「建設工地」。2015年當選阿根廷總統的毛里西奧?馬克里啟動一項名為「計劃貝爾格蘭諾」的基礎設施計劃，旨在改善該國北部地區的道路交通情況。他的幕僚長馬科斯·佩納稱之為「阿根廷歷史上最雄心勃勃的人」。在哥倫比亞，建設農村基礎設施的承諾是政府與哥倫比亞革命武裝力量達成和平協議的一部分內容。哥倫比亞革命武裝力量是一個左翼游擊隊組織，自1964年以來一直與該國政府交戰。

A window closes

失去的機會

But the region』s governments have not made the most of the opportunity. A big setback was the Lava Jato (Car Wash) investigation, which began as a money-laundering case in Brazil and has engulfed the governments of a dozen Latin American countries. Odebrecht, a Brazilian firm that built highways, dams, power plants and sanitation facilities across the region, admitted to paying $788m in bribes. Its money financed political campaigns, including those of Colombia』s president, Juan Manuel Santos and Juan Carlos Varela, now Panama』s president. Mr Kuczynski has admitted that companies linked to him have taken (legal) payments from Odebrecht.

但拉美地區的各國政府並沒有充分抓住這一機遇。名為「汽車清洗」的調查造成了巨大的後退。該調查始於巴西的一樁洗錢案，之後席捲了拉美12個國家政府。巴西公司Odebrecht在該地區修建了高速公路、大壩、發電廠和衛生設施，並承認賄賂了7.88億美元。這些錢用於資助競選活動，包括哥倫比亞總統胡安·曼努埃爾·桑托斯和現任巴拿馬總統胡安·卡洛斯·瓦雷拉。庫琴斯基承認，與他有關聯的一些企業從Odebrecht獲得了(合法)費用。

The scandal has left a trail of unfinished projects, frightened politicians and bureaucrats, and wary bankers. A $7bn contract with Odebrecht to build a pipeline to transport natural gas from the Amazon basin across the Andes to Peru』s coast has been annulled and work has been suspended. Ruta del Sol 2, a 500km (300-mile) stretch of highway to help connect Bogotá to Colombia』s Caribbean coast, has stalled. Panama』s government cancelled a contract with Odebrecht for a $1bn hydroelectric project. Mexico』s biggest scheme, a new airport near the capital, has been plagued by corruption allegations. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the front-runner in Mexico』s presidential election, scheduled for July 1st, has threatened to scrap it.

這一醜聞造成了許多項目未能完工，讓政客和官員望而卻步，同時也使得銀行家謹小慎微。之前與Odebrecht簽訂的一份70億美元的合同，要修建一條管道，將天然氣從亞馬遜流域輸送到秘魯的海岸，目前已取消，工程暫停。全長500公里(300英里)，連接波哥大和哥倫比亞的加勒比海岸魯塔德爾索爾2號公路也中止了。巴拿馬政府取消了與Odebrecht的一項價值10億美元水電項目的合同。墨西哥最大的基建項目，在首都附近修建一個新機場的項目一直受到腐敗指控的困擾。7月1日，墨西哥總統選舉的領跑者安德烈斯·曼紐爾·洛佩茲·奧夫拉多爾威脅要廢除這個合同。

Governments also worry that a rise in interest rates will raise the cost of borrowing to build infrastructure and that a reduction in corporate tax in the United States, signed into law by Donald Trump in December, will pull capital away from Latin America. They are racing to get their infrastructure plans back on track before the opportunity passes.

各國政府還擔心，利率上升將提高建設基礎設施建設的借貸成本，而唐納德?特朗普去年12月簽署的美國企業稅削減計劃將使資本從拉丁美洲撤出。在機會流失，這些國家正在努力讓他們的基礎設施計劃重回正軌。

The biggest need, say economists, is for roads, railways, ports and urban transport to speed exports and the travels of workers. To move sugar from Jujuy in northern Argentina to Buenos Aires by rail, a journey of 1,675km, takes 22 days, as long as it takes to ship it on to Hamburg. Cargo can take two days to journey from Bogotá to Santa Marta on the Caribbean coast; then it can wait as long to pass through customs.

經濟學家表示，最需要建設的是公路、鐵路、港口以及推動出口和勞動力的出行城市交通。從阿根廷北部城市胡胡伊到布宜諾斯艾利斯的鐵路運輸糖的長度有1 675公里，需要22天的時間。這與把它運到德國漢堡的時間一樣長。從波哥大到加勒比海岸的聖瑪爾塔，貨物需要兩天的時間；然後要等很長時間通關。

A big difficulty in widening such bottlenecks is cumbersome procedures, legal hurdles and ponderous bureaucracies. A new airport near Cusco, Peru』s most popular tourist destination, was proposed in the 1970s; a contract to build it was signed in 2014 but scrapped last year. Projects often impinge on indigenous lands, which can slow things down further. Conflicts over projects cause average delays of five years, according to a study by the Inter-American Development Bank.

破除這種瓶頸狀態的一大難題是繁瑣程序、法律障礙和機械的官僚機構。20世紀70年代，曾有提議在秘魯最受歡迎的旅遊勝地庫斯科附近建一座新機場；2014年簽署了一份建造合同，但在去年取消了。項目往往會影響到原住民的土地，這種情況會讓事情進展緩慢。根據泛美開發銀行的一項研究，由於基建項目引發的衝突通常會致使項目時間拖長五年。

Despite low interest rates, governments cannot borrow much to pay for infrastructure. Non-financial public-sector debt rose from 30.6% of GDP in 2008 on average in Latin America to 40.4% in 2016. In Brazil it reached a record of 74.4% last year. Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru have rules that limit public spending or borrowing.

儘管利率很低，各國政府卻借不到很多錢來用於基礎設施建設。在拉丁美地區，非金融公共部門債務佔GDP的比重平均從2008年的30.6%上升到2016年的40.4%。在巴西，該指數去年創下了74.4%的紀錄。巴西、智利、哥倫比亞和秘魯都有限制公共支出或借貸的規定。

Privacy, please

請保護隱私

So governments must form partnerships with private enterprises, says Jose Fernandez, a former assistant secretary in America』s State Department. They are no panacea. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are open to abuse by construction firms such as Odebrecht, which make low bids to secure contracts and then renegotiate them to push up the cost, often by bribing a politician or two. More than three-quarters of Latin American PPP contracts in transport have been renegotiated within about three years of signing, according to José Luis Guasch, a professor of economics at the University of California.

因此，美國國務院前助理部長Jose Fernandez表示，各國政府必須與私營企業合作。他們手中沒有靈丹妙藥。國家-民營企業合作(PPP)會讓Odebrecht等建築企業濫用。Odebrecht先報一個低報以獲得合同，然後通常是賄賂一兩個政客，再重新談判提高成本。加州大學經濟學教授何塞?路易斯?瓜斯奇表示，在大約3年的時間內，超過四分之三的拉美PPP合同都再次進行了談判。

PPPs require competent agencies and often government guarantees, as well as sophisticated domestic financial markets. In Chile, which has strong institutions and financial markets, most roads, ports and airports are operated by private companies. In most countries private participation is a complement to, rather than a substitute for, public money, the World Bank argues. The region』s volatile politics makes investors wary. Michel Temer, Brazil』s centrist president, is dogged by scandal and will not run in the presidential election in October. Mexico』s election may bring the populist Mr López Obrador to power. In Peru congress is threatening to impeach Mr Kuczynski, who narrowly avoided impeachment once before.

政府-民營企業合作關係要求有有能力的機構以及通常有政府的擔保，以及成熟的國內金融市場。在擁有強大金融機構和金融市場的智利，大多數道路、港口和機場都由私人企業經營。世界銀行認為，在大多數國家，民間資本的參與是對公共資金的補充，而非替代。拉美地區動蕩的政治局勢讓投資者變得謹慎小心。巴西中間派總統米歇爾?特梅爾醜聞纏身，將不參加在10月的總統選舉。墨西哥的選舉可能會使平民主義者洛佩斯·奧夫拉多爾掌權。在秘魯，國會正威脅要彈劾庫津斯基，而他之前曾以微弱的優勢躲過彈劾。

Not all the news is bad. One reason for cheer is that infrastructure can be less expensive than governments think. With conventional policies, South America needs to spend $23bn-24bn a year to upgrade its electricity networks, according to the World Bank. But if the region manages demand better, introduces renewable sources of energy and promotes conservation, it can cut that cost to $8bn-9bn. Freight can be sped up and made cheaper by simplifying bureaucracy and improving regulation as well as by expanding roads. Latin America』s trucking industry is now 15 times more concentrated than that of the United States, the World Bank says. Promoting competition would reduce costs.

並非所有的消息都是壞消息。有一件事值得高興，就是基礎設施的成本可能比政府想像的要低。根據世界銀行的數據，按照常規政策，南美各國每年要花費230~240億美元來更新電網。但如果該地區能更好地管理需求，引入可再生能源，並促進節能，就能將成本削減至80~90億美元。通過簡化官僚機構和改善監管以及擴建道路，能加快貨運速度，降低成本。世界銀行表示，拉丁美洲的卡車運輸業目前的集中度是美國的15倍。促進競爭度會降低成本。

A second source of encouragement is China. Its banks invest more in Latin America』s infrastructure than the World Bank and IDB combined, according to David Dollar of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank in Washington. Last year Chinese companies invested at least $21bn in Brazil, not least in power plants and ports. Bolivia has a $10bn Chinese credit line to spend on motorways and hydroelectric dams. China has agreed to build two nuclear-power plants in Argentina. But some Chinese ideas, like a railway through the Amazon and a canal through Nicaragua to rival the Panama canal, may never materialise.

第二個激勵因素是中國。位於美國華盛頓的智庫布魯金斯學會的戴維?道樂表示，中國的銀行機構在拉美基礎設施方面的投資超過了世界銀行和IDB的總和。去年，中國企業在巴西投資了至少210億美元，尤其是在發電廠和港口。玻利維亞有100億美元的中國貸款，用於修建高速公路和水電站。中國同意在阿根廷建造兩座核電站。但一些中國的想法可能永遠不會實現，比如一條穿過亞馬遜河的鐵路，一條穿越尼加拉瓜的運河，與巴拿馬運河相匹敵。

Latin American countries may be learning from their mistakes. The scandals are changing how business is done. Companies are increasing radically the number of compliance officers, says Brian Winter, vice-president for policy at the Americas Society and the Council of the Americas. New laws seek to bring more transparency and strike a balance between discouraging corruption and chilling investment. Legislation in Peru, for example, exempts from penalties firms that co-operate with anti-corruption investigators.

拉美國家可能正在從他們的錯誤中汲取教訓。政治醜聞正在改變企業的經營方式。美洲協會和美洲理事會負責政策的副會長布賴恩?溫特表示，企業正在從大量地增加合規官員的數量。新法律尋求提高透明度，在抑制腐敗和投資降溫之間取得平衡。例如，秘魯的立法豁免了與反腐敗調查人員合作的處罰企業。

Some countries, including Colombia and Peru, have passed laws that make it harder to renegotiate PPPs. Brazil』s plan for 34 partnerships in roads, ports and other projects seeks to reduce red tape by making sure that they have environmental licences before their details are announced.

哥倫比亞和秘魯等國家通過了一些法律，使得PPPs項目重新談判變得更加困難。巴西計劃在道路、港口和其他項目中建立34個合作夥伴關係，要減少繁文縟節，確保在公布細節之前獲得環境許可。

Such reforms improve the chances that Latin America』s president-builders will eventually realise their ambitions. Repairers are at work on the rail line through Jujuy. Peru』s government hopes to find new investors in the gas pipeline this year. With the right policies, honestly executed, rolling stock, rather than livestock, could someday glide along the tracks of the Transnordestina railway.

這些改革提高了拉丁美洲的「建設派」領導人最終實現他們的宏偉藍圖的機會。鐵路維修人員正在胡胡伊城市的鐵路線上工作。秘魯政府希望今年能在天然氣管道中找到新投資者。有了正確的政策，實實在在地執行，終有一天沿著鐵路的軌道行進的會是火車，而不是牲畜。

編輯：翻吧君

來源：經濟學人（2018.03.10）

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