聯盟中誰接到球後最可能完成出手，誰又是最有可能不自己乾的球員的呢？

運動 03-31

金屬質感分割線

The players who are most and least likely to shoot when they get the ball [OC]

讓我們通過這張統計圖一起來了解一下聯盟中接到球後最有可能完成出手和最有可能不自己乾的兩撥球員們都是誰。

橫坐標：觸球數縱坐標：出手數Data from nba.com/stats.數據來自於NBA官方統計

Here is a list of the players most and least likely to shoot on each team. Here is a list of the raw data.

而這個清單列出了各隊最愛接球就投和最不愛接球就投的球員們，附上原始數據。

鏈接：https://pastebin.com/QMKnLKbv

Of course, for pass-heavy teams the numbers will be slightly lower. (also, oops, the one marked M. Beasley is Malik, not Michael)

當然，對於那些傳球比重較大的球隊來說，這項數據會稍低一點（另外，那位M.比斯利是馬利克-比斯利而不是邁克爾-比斯利）

edit: Some have pointed out that players who get lots of defensive boards have inflated touch numbers since they tend to hand off to a guard immediately. If we subtract DRB from touches to get a better estimate, the list changes to this:

https://pastebin.com/PNdAiJiTMacGyver"d plot with that data

Basically, it shows that the bigs are more likely to shoot on offense than the original data shows.

補充：有些人指出那些每場抓很多後場板的球員們的觸控球的次數被誇大了，因為他們一拿到籃板就會立即將球交給後衛處理。假如我們把防守籃板率從觸球數中減掉，會得到一個更加貼切的估計值，然後更改後的清單變成了這樣：

然後我們基本上可以看出，大個子們實際上比原始數據顯示的更會在進攻端選擇投籃。

[–]Celticscabose12 145 指標 9小時前

The Data"s telling me that Smart isn"t that likely to shoot

But my body, my body"s telling me it"s still kind of high

凱爾特人球迷：你這個數據告訴我斯馬特並不是那麼愛接球就扔。但是冥冥之中我的身體彷彿在告訴我他投的還是有點多了。

[–]HawksWhiteHeterosexualGuy 18 指標 9小時前

Any chance you know where on the graph Ben Simmons would be? It looks like you only graphed the most/least likely by % for each team but Ben probably has a huge amount of touches and was curious where his dot would be.

話說你們在圖裡看到本-西蒙斯了嗎？看起來樓主通過比較百分比找出了各球隊的兩個之最，但是本-西蒙斯的觸球數好像也不少吧，很好奇他的那個點會在圖上的哪個位置。

[–]Trail Blazersneilson241[S] 36 指標 9小時前

Yep, Simmons is the quite low one on the far right. (6726, 901) or 13.4%

樓主：你說的沒錯，西蒙斯那個點在遙遠的右邊而且是很靠下的位置。用數據來說就是，6726次觸球出手了901次，接球投籃比是百分之13.4。

[–][HOU] Hakeem Olajuwonkyotofly 885 指標 10小時前

Wiggins wyd

威金斯你搞啥啊！

[–][SAS] Dennis RodmanXwarsama 332 指標 9小時前

According to the OP, KAT is shooting on only 21.1% of his touches by comparison.

再看一眼樓主貼的數據對比一下的話，唐斯的接球投籃比只有21.1%哦。

[–]TimberwolvesVcm721 98 指標 5小時前*

This is the worst part of being a Wolves fan. Imagine having a Lamborghini in the garage but you have to drive your 2001 Sienna to work every day.

森林狼球迷：這就是當狼蜜最難受的地方了。想像一下，假如你的車庫有個蘭博基尼，但是你卻只能每天開著2001年款的塞納出去上班是什麼滋味吧。

[–]Warriorsmy-name-is- 59 指標 4小時前

That you paid top dollar for

而且這破車還是你們花了大價錢買的。

[–]Raptorsbeerdude111 11 指標 5小時前

Honest question. I"ll admit that I don"t watch Wolves as often as I should but how is it that we"ve all suddenly given up on Wiggins? He"s not even that old and he"s already been labelled a Rudy Gay type of player. Doesn"t he at least get another season or 2 to turn things around?

猛龍球迷：我真心地問個問題啊。我承認我沒有經常看森林狼的球，但是怎麼突然之間我們大家就都不看好威金斯了呢？他還很年輕啊，怎麼就被貼上了魯迪-蓋伊式球員的標籤呢。他不還是需要至少一到兩個賽季來完成變身嗎？

[–][MIN] Rasho NesterovicAlongCamePollyIsBae 42 指標 4小時前

He"s not even that old and he"s already been labelled a Rudy Gay type of player.

One: Rudy Gay was good.

Two: http://bkref.com/tiny/Jt6RG

You can give Wiggins more seasons if you want, but DeRozan is basically the only person in NBA history to be as bad as Wiggins through 4 seasons and become good.

Only difference is DeRozan improved during those 4 seasons, and Wiggins has (statistically) regressed.

森林狼球迷：就針對你說這句話啊「他還很年輕啊怎麼就被貼上了魯迪-蓋伊式球員的標籤呢」我說兩點。

第一點：魯迪-蓋伊是個很不錯的球員。

第二點：算了，我還是直接上個鏈接，來個數據對比吧。

http://bkref.com/tiny/Jt6RG

如果你還想給威金斯更多的時間我沒意見，但是我這麼跟你說，除了德羅贊以外，你在NBA歷史上不會再找出另外一個（被球隊當做核心培養的）前四個賽季都表現的這麼差後來還能打出來的球員了。

他們倆唯一的區別就是德羅贊進步了，而威金斯呢，從數據上看，還退步了。

[–]Nets Tankwagonnot_Kevin_Durant 41 指標 7小時前

I think it make sense for Wiggins to take a ton of shots, it"s not like there is another extremely efficient 1st option readily available and already playing obscene minutes.

籃網球迷：我覺得威金斯出手這麼多次也沒什麼毛病啊！畢竟，森林狼又沒有什麼極具效率的第一投籃選擇等著喂球呢對吧！而且這個投籃效率極高的老哥出場時間也並沒有多到嚇人的地步對吧！

[–]TimberwolvesSharcbait 168 指標 9小時前

The answer might lie in how little ball movement we have. Way too many of our possessions are Teague dribbling the ball out for 16 seconds before we try to move the ball at all, then try to dump it inside, because how little clock is left it gets kicked out to Wiggins who puts up a contested shot because the clock is so low. On top of that, because when he does pass the ball rarely ends up back in his hands he will try to go for hero mode early in the shot clock.

森林狼球迷：其實這個問題的答案在於我們比賽時球的轉移真的很少。我們大部分的控球回合都是蒂格先運個16秒再開始組織進攻，然後就把球甩鍋給裡面（這還是說他真能選擇傳球的情況），因為時間所剩無幾，球最後到了威金斯手裡面，他也只能強投，因為實在是沒時間了啊。最重要的是，當威金斯開始把球傳出去了，然後就沒有然後了，球基本回不到他手裡了。所以他才會選擇一拿球就早點開啟英雄球模式。

TLDR: Don"t let the numbers misguide you, Thibs offensive system sucks. The numbers are coming from the quality of the players not the system at all.

給那些太長不看的那些人總結一下：別讓數據誤導了你，錫伯杜的進攻體系很垃圾，我狼的進攻打得不錯完全是靠這些出色的球員，跟體系雞毛關係沒有。

[–]NBAbayesian_acolyte 76 指標 8小時前*

Wiggins has had 3 different coaches and never had a shooting frequency below 34%. He was even worse his rookie season than this year (38.7%). Plus when you watch him, he routinely misses wide open players to jack contested midrange shots. No coach is telling players to do that.

威金斯被三個教練執教過，而他的投籃比從未低於過百分之34。他新秀賽季的投籃比是百分之38，比這個賽季還要糟糕。另外當你看他比賽時你會發現，他會選擇無視那些有空位出手機會的球員，強行投個中距離。沒有一個教練會讓球員那麼做的。

[–]TimberwolvesSharcbait 33 指標 8小時前

IDK how many Wolves games you have seen this season, but Thibs version of coaching is looking confused and yelling at the refs. It"s not that he is telling Wiggins to shoot the ball too much, its that he is not telling the guys to do anything. They are playing rec league ball with people they don"t know half the time it feels like. Our only consistent plays are screen and roll where they go to trap the ball handler and Taj or KAT get free inside.

森林狼球迷：我不知道你這個賽季看了多場森林狼的球，但是錫伯杜的執教基本可以這麼概括：一臉懵逼+大吼裁判。他的問題不是讓威金斯投了太多的籃，而是他根本就沒有告訴球員們該做什麼不該做什麼。好像他們在場上的一半時間是跟他們根本不認識的人一起在玩娛樂籃球一樣。我們唯一堅持的戰術就是擋拆，持球人被包夾然後吉布森和唐斯在內線被放空。

[–]GameDesignerDude 99 指標 7小時前*

Here is an advanced breakdown of Wiggins" offensive moves:

https://imgur.com/a/CPbOs

Step 1) Stand in The Wiggins Zone (tm)

Step 2) Wait for ball

Step 3) It"s Wiggins Time (tm)

下面我通過高階的分解動作解析一下威金斯進攻方式：

第一步：站在威金斯地帶

第二步：等球來

第三步：進入威金斯時刻

Wiggins Time (tm) consists of:

Open three

Fadeaway midrange in traffic

Drive to dunk/layup

具體說說威金斯時刻都包括哪些進攻方式呢：

空位三分；

突破之後接一個後仰中距離；

一路狂奔的扣籃或者上籃。

But, more seriously, the statements that Wiggins is a "black hole" on offense aren"t just hyperbole. The OP pretty much backs this up with numbers, and NBA stats tracking has shown this for quite some time now.

但是，我更嚴肅一點說，威金斯是「黑洞」這種說法還真不是誇張。樓主通過數據有力的支持了這一種說法。而NBA的數據追蹤系統也早已證明了這一點。

Wiggins needs to learn how to pass. Honestly, it would open up his offensive game a lot if he actually looked for other people and could make passing out of his drives a legitimate threat to defenders.

威金斯應該學學怎麼傳球了。老實說，如果他真的能開始在球場上找隊友、並且使他的突分能力成為真正的進攻威脅，他的進攻就能徹底打開了。

It would also make his teammates more likely to get him involved in a wider variety of offensive sets, rather than just ignoring him on some sets because they aren"t looking for a Wiggins iso play

這樣以來，威金斯的隊友也會更願意將他融入到各種戰術中來，而不是在進攻時總是忽略他，畢竟他的隊友們也不是來看威金斯單打獨鬥的。

[–]Raptorsdragonballa 46 指標 8小時前

Came into this expecting CJ Miles to be #1 in the league, left satisfied. Second only to Wiggs 38.5%.

This dude really jacks it up every time he touches it. Makes this tweet funnier

https://twitter.com/masfresco/status/974475292977909762

猛龍球迷：看標題我就猜CJ-邁爾斯是這個指標的第一人，點進一開果然沒差多少！僅次於威金斯的38.5%，排第二。

感覺這個傢伙每次觸球都會投。這麼一看他的這條推特就更好玩了。[譯註1]

[譯註1]籃球真的太有趣了，跟現在這群傢伙一起並肩作戰簡直是我這一生最快樂的籃球時光。

[–]diiron 73 指標 9小時前

I thought and was hoping it"d be Mo Speights

我進來之前以為而且很希望第一是斯貝茨。

[–]WestbrookRapedMe 255 指標 10小時前

Surprised Klay isn』t at like 80%

很驚訝克萊-湯普森的接球投籃比不在80%左右。

[–][UTA] Gordon HaywardLeonardosClone 63 指標 9小時前

333 is the strongest number in the universe bro

爵士球迷：這你就不懂了吧，老鐵，333才是宇宙最強數字。

[–]Rocketsdudenotcool 58 指標 10小時前

Who is the bottom right dot that is allergic to shooting?

火箭球迷：右下角那個哥們是對投籃過敏嗎？

[–]SunsFriendEater 26 指標 9小時前

Dragan Bender

太陽球迷：艹，是德拉甘-本德爾。

[–]DylonSpittinHotFire 189 指標 10小時前

Bad shooters shoot the ball less it seems. Outlier being MKG though.

射術一般的好像投的都少點。不過邁基吉是個例外。

[–][CHA] Treveon GrahamBizGilwalker 157 指標 10小時前

MKG is the outlier because he"s grossly misused. We run no plays for him and our offense is a disjointed mess, so usually when he receives the ball, it"s because he"s wide open or a busted play and he just has to fire something up. A coach worth a shit would actually let MKG handle the ball a little bit, drive more, scoring off cuts, and all that stuff.

黃蜂球迷：他是個例外的原因是他被嚴重的誤用了。我們沒有為他安排任何戰術，我們的進攻體系一團糟。所以當他接到球的時候，一般都是他處於空位、或者我們的戰術沒打出來導致他必須得開火。一個真正的教練會讓他處理球，更多的衝擊籃筐，進行一些空切得分之類的吧。

But nope, we"re basically Kemba isos and Dwight post ups at this point. And that hurts MKG more than anybody else on the team.

但是我們並沒有這麼做。我們基本上是讓肯巴-沃克單打或者是讓霍華德在低位單打。這對於邁基吉的傷害比對球隊里任何人的都多。

[–]DylonSpittinHotFire 45 指標 10小時前

As a current Charlotte resident I can attest to the problems that you are describing.

作為一名夏洛特居民，我可以向大家證實你的敘述。

[–][OKC] Paul GeorgePervy_Sensei 45 指標 10小時前

Melo gotta be way up there

雷霆球迷：不對啊，安東尼那個點應該高高在上啊。

[–]Trail Blazersneilson241[S] 42 指標 10小時前

3739, 1074; 28.7%

樓主：3739次觸球出手1074次，接球投籃比28.7%。