電影《大空頭》

Based on a true story.It ain"t what you don"t know that gets you into trouble,It"s what you know for sure that just ain"t so.

讓我們陷入困境的不是無知，而是自己篤信的謬判。

——MarkTwain馬克·吐溫

[開場]

「Hiya Frank.How are the wife and kids?smoke?」

家裡怎麼樣？要來根煙嗎？

In the late "70s,banking wasn"t a job you were into to make large sums of money.It was a fucking snooze.

20世紀70年代末，美國銀行業根本就賺不了大錢。只不過是無聊的差事。

「How about those Mets?」

你怎麼看紐約大都會隊？

Filled with losers,like selling insurance or accounting.

到處都是傻逼，賣保險的，或者會計師...

You might not know who he is,but he changed your life more than Michael Jordan,the iPod,YuTube put together.

你可能不知道路易斯，但他對你的影響可能比喬丹、iPod和YuTube加起來還大。

「Alright ,gentlemen,let"s get some money in here!let"s make some money,what do you say?」

好了先生們，我們來賺錢吧。讓我們來賺錢吧好不好？

You see,Lewis didn"t know it yet,but he had already changed banking forever with one simple idea.

路易斯自己也沒想到，他的一個主意會改變整個銀行業。

The mondy came raining down.And for the first time ,the banker went from the counry club to the stirp club.

他們簡直賺翻了。也就從那時開始，銀行家從去私人會所晉級到去脫衣酒吧。

And America barely noticed noticed as it number one industry became boring old banking.

不知不覺間，老舊古板的銀行業一躍成為美國最大產業。

And then one day,almost 30 years later,in 2008,it all came crashing down.

然而30年後，也就是2008年，美國經濟全面崩盤。

it"s been called the worst financial ciris in modern times.Certainly the largest financial disater in the decades in this country.And perhaps the end of an era in Ameriacn business.

這堪稱現代社會最嚴重的一次金融危機，美國數十年最大的金融災難。大概也是美國其中一個時代的終結。

But there were someone who saw it coming.While the whole word was having a big old party,few ousiders and weirdos saw what no one else cloud.

但就在世人皆醉的時候，一些旁觀者和鬼才反而提前看到了末日。

Not me,i"m not a weirdo, i"m pretty fucking cool.but we"ll meet again later.

別看著我，我不是鬼才，我只是很帥而已。不過一會兒見。

These outsider saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy.And they saw it by doing something the rest of sucker never thought to do.They looked.

這些旁觀者拆穿了經濟大佬招搖撞騙的騙局，因為他們那時正巧在做一些其他窩囊廢想都不幹想的事情。他們專心研究。

[邁克爾出場]

During the 1930s,the housing market collapased nationwide，by roughly 80%.I mean there were specifi identifiers,extremly recognizable.

20世紀30年代，全美房市爆跌，跌了大約八成。但是，這個事先是有預兆的，而且誰都看得出來。

I『ve always been more comfortable alone.I believe maybe it is because of my glass eye.I lost the eye in a childhood illness,it seperates me from people.

我總覺得獨處的時候更自在，大概這是因為假眼的緣故。小時候得了場病，然後我失去一隻眼睛。

"let"s wash it off and put it again.you were playing so great ,son.I even heard the coach say it."

讓我們把它洗乾淨再放回去。你剛剛表現得真好！我聽到教練也這麼說。

"Can we just go home?"

我想回家。

Most social interaction are awkward for me and for the person.Even when i tried to compliment someone,it comes out wrong.

我的社交總以尷尬收場，就算我打算去稱讚別人，也總是會搞砸。

「You have a very nice haircut,did you do it yourself?"

你這個髮型很酷，你自己剪的嗎？

I』m sorry,i"m just...i am going on and on,my wife told me i need to share more.

對不起，我...唉，我總是說個不停，我老婆叫我多跟別人溝通。

「That seems healthy."

挺好的。

「So do i get the job?i really think i can help you fund."

那..我被錄用了嗎？我覺得自己能夠勝任幫你管理基金。

「Is there anything you want me to work on for start...you can let me know latter ,i can come back."

如果你需要我現在先做點什麼的話，你可以待會叫我，我過來。

[馬克出場]

"I』m a nice guy all day long.ask anyone,i"m a pleasure to work with.But the second my son screws up,i am yelling at him just like my dad did to me."

我是個很隨和的人。不信你去問，大家都願意跟我共事。但是每次當我的兒子搞砸事情的時候，我就會對他大吼，跟我爹以前對我一樣。

Sorry i"m late,no cabs.so get this,i met this retail banker yesterday,i"m supposed to be getting him to invest in a fund,but instead,i start grilling him about overdraft penalties .And this creep is making billions off screwing over people this way.And i"m getting madder and madder,and i asked him,l looked into his face and i say,"How can you sleep at night,knowing that you are ripping off working people?"And you know what he did?he left.He just walked out of the lunch,doesn"t say a word.What the fuck is that?

對不起我又遲到了，打不到車。昨天我遇見一個零售銀行家，我本來是想說服他投資基金的，結果我開始質問他銀行透支賬戶的問題。這吊毛就用這種方式榨了幾十億。我當時看著他的眼睛問他：「知道自己在剝削勞動人民，你他媽每天晚上怎麼睡得早？」然後你知道他怎麼樣了？他直接就走了。午飯也沒吃，半句話都沒說。什麼態度嘛？

「We have talked about this numerous times,you can"t come in late and hijack the entire session.Mark,i know you suffered a terrible loss,maybe you want to talk about that."

說了幾百遍了，你不能這麼晚到還打斷整個會議。馬克，我知道你失去了最重要的親人，不如跟我們談談這個吧？

[邁克爾與投資人]

Micheal,how are you guy?

最近怎麼樣？

Lawrence,i found something really interesting.

勞倫斯，發現個好東西。

Great,whenever you find something interesting ,we all tend to make money.What stock are you valuing?

真的嗎？一說這句話，我就知道有錢賺。在研究哪只股？

No no no,no stocks,i want to short the housing market.

不是股票。這次我想沽空房市。

Really?but the housing market is rock solid.Tell them i"ll be there in a minute.I don"t think you mean to do that,but sometimes you sound very dismiss and superior.Micheal,just take a beat,we"ll talk about this later,okay?

是嗎？不過房市現在堅若磐石啊，又不會崩盤。呃我馬上就來。我我不知道你是不是故意的，但有些時候你真的很夜郎自大。邁克爾，慢慢來。晚點談，好不好？

Lawrence,please,don"t patronize me.

勞倫斯，別把我當小孩好嗎。

「Does it make you feel bored .Or stupid?well,it supposed to.Wall Streets loves to use cofusing terms to make you think only then can do what they do,or even better,for you to just leave the fuck alone.」

你是不是一頭霧水？或者覺得很無聊？這很正常。華爾街就是喜歡使用一些高深術語讓你以為他們很在行，甚至，乾脆就讓你完全不想管這檔破事。

[馬克抱怨]

「I don"t want that kind of business,money is not money,that"s bad money.Let me asked this,what company treats it customers that shittily and succeed?fine,okay,goldman,you"re right,」

我寧願不做他的生意，這種錢是不義之財。你說，有哪家公司對客戶這個鬼樣還能掙錢？好你贏了，高盛，是。

Mark Baum had built his career on never assuming anyone or any company was legit wihout proving it.When he was a kid he excelled at studying the Talmud in Yeshiva，Whatever.But one day his rabbi told his mom why.

從業以來，馬克鮑恩從不相信任何人或一個公司的清白。從小他就很愛研讀猶太法典之類的東西,直到有一天他的導師找到他媽說明原因。

「Paul is a fine boy,and Mark is a excellent student of the Torah and the Talmud.」

保羅很乖，馬克，把教律和法典學得很好。

「Then what"s the problem ,rabbi?"

那有什麼問題嗎？

「It"s the reason that Mark is tudying so hard.He is looking for inconsistencies in the word of God！"

他學得認真，是因為他一心要找出上帝話語里的矛盾！

「So has he found any?"

...所以他找到了嗎?

they called,you did it again..

治療師打電話來，說你又遲到了。

There was no cabs,what was i supposed to do ?At least i went.

打不到出租，我能怎麼辦？至少我去了。

You"re running around like you have to right every wrong in the world.you"re so angry.

你總是想矯正世界上的所有不公正，你總是這樣憤世嫉俗。

Fine,you know what,i"m a mena guy and i"m pissed off.

是啊是啊，我就是個刻薄的憤青。

You had no idea the kind of crap poeople are pulling.And everyone"s walking around like they"re in a golddamn Enya video.They"re all getting screw,you know.

你根本不知道那些人渣在搞什麼，然後這些街上的人，每個人一副與世無爭的樣子。他們完全不知道自己正被蒙在鼓裡。

You know what they are care about?They care about the ballgame.Or they care about what actress just went into the rehab.

他們關心什麼呢？球賽。要麼他們就關注哪個女明星進康復中心。

I think you should try medication.

你該吃藥了。

No no we agreed.if it interfered with work.

不，我們說好的。這個會影響工作。

You hate Wall Street,maybe it"s time to quit.You are miserable.

你那麼討厭華爾街，也許是時候辭職了。你那麼痛苦。

Mark,i am sad everyday about what happened.i know you must feel the same,but you never show it .i know how close you were to your brother.Everyday i think you"re gonna talk about that,but you never do.will you at least think about the idea of making a change？

馬克，那件事讓我每一天都很痛苦。我知道你一定跟我有一樣的感覺，但你從來沒表現出來。我知道你跟你哥哥感情有多好。每天，每天我都在等你提起這件事，但你就是不說。你有沒有想過哪怕做一個改變？

Fine,fine,honey,you know what?i will consider it.But honestly,i"m okay,i really am.

好，好，好我答應你。但老婆，我真的沒事。

[華爾街談保險]

This is Wall Street,if you offer us free money,we are going to take it.My one concern is that when the bonds fail，i want to be certain of payment in case of solvency issues with your bank

這是華爾街，有錢賺不拿白不拿。我只關心債券違約時你們銀行的償付能力。

I』m sorry,are you for real?you want to bet against the housing market,and you"re worried we won"t pay you.

抱歉...你是認真的嗎？你要跟房市對賭，還怕我們賴賬？

Yes,that"s correct.

恩。

Unless the market crashes.The market on housing"s never gonna crash.Because it"s solid right now.I mean,who doesn"t pay the mortgages?

除非房市崩盤。而房市絕對不會崩，現在還很健全。誰不會買房貸呢？

We"ll be in touch,send some paperwork over.

我們到時會聯絡你並遞交一些文件。

I like these cups,can i take one for my son?

我喜歡這杯子，能拿一個給我兒子嗎？

Have...yes,yes.have two.

當然。兩個都拿走。

[導師質疑邁克爾]

How much in total?

總額有多少？

$1.3billion.

13億美元。

What?that"s pretty much all of Scion"s liquidity.Micheal,that"s highly distressing.

什麼！這相當於公司所有現金。邁克，玩過了。

Lawrence,that"s not all of our liquidity.And i"m not certain that you really understand this trade.

勞倫斯，這不是我們公司全部的現有資產，而且我也不知道你到底是否了解這項交易。

This is a certainty.

穩賺不賠。

Micheal,i consider myself a mentor to you.but our company is not comfortable with this investment,am i being clear?

邁克，我一向以你的導師自居,但我們公司不喜歡這項投資，聽清楚了嗎？

Lawrence,i have full autonomy when it comes to investment strategy.you can read our agreement.

我完全可以獨立決定投資策略。你去看我們的合同吧。

Do not throw our inception agreement in my face,Micheal.we had underlying understanding you wouldn"t act like a goddamn crazy man.

別拿合同搪塞我，合同生效的前提是你不會像個瘋子一樣行事。

This is not crazy,it"s all very logical.

我沒有瘋，一切都有理有據。

we lose millions until something that is never happened before happens?

我們要陪幾百萬來等一件前所未有的事發生嗎？

[馬克團隊接錯電話]

「Mark refued to kiss the ring of people with checkbooks so he had to set us his fund under Morgan Stanly"s umbrella.his small team reflected his distrust of the system.」

馬克不願意巴結潛在的投資人，只好在摩根士丹利旗下成立自己的基金。他的小團隊反映出他對體制的不信任。

You guys are sick,you sick.

你們這群人瘋了，瘋了。

She says this job is making me unhappy.

她說工作讓我不開心。

But you are happy when you"re unhappy.

你不就喜歡不開心么。

That was a weird call.

打錯電話了。

You take longer with a wrong number than anybody else.

你跟一個打錯電話的人還能聊那麼久...

He was talking about shorting housing bonds.And in the middle of the call he reliazed he had the wrong FrontPoint.

他提到沽空房貸債券，講到一半發現他打錯了。

That happens like five times a day that somebody get the wrong FrontPoint，we should change our name.

每天差不多有五個人能打錯電話到這，我們該改名了。

「That"s right,these lucky son of bitches caught wind of the one of the best trade in Wall Street history from a wrong number,they should have paid 10% to my fuckstick assistant.」

恩，這些走狗屎運的人因為一次打錯的電話便無意中聽到了華爾街史上最棒的一次交易。他們真應該給我的蠢助理分點紅。

[馬克團隊與委內特洽談]

So how many people have you talked to about this trade.

所以你跟多少個人談過這交易？

A few,that"s definitely some intrest.Alright,a few people have invested us in just to laugh at me on this deal.is that you?Is that you ?is that what this is?

一些。這絕對有市場。好。所以你們把我邀請過來就是為了嘲笑這項交易是嗎？是你嗎？你也是嗎？

that"s not what this is.that"s just how Mark is.Let"s see what you got.

沒有，我們沒有笑你。馬克這人就是這樣的。說說你的企劃把。

Look at him,that"s my quant.your what?You notice anything different about him?look at his face.

你們看，我的計量分析師。你沒發現他長得跟我們有點不一樣嗎？

That"s pretty racist.

你這種族歧視啊。

Look at his eyes,i"ll get you a hints.He"s name is Yang,he won a math competition in China,he doesn"t even speak English!Yeah i"m sure of the math

你看著他的眼睛，我給你點提示。他叫楊，是中國數學大賽的冠軍，他甚至連英文都不會說。我對這次交易的數字很有信心。

Actually my name is Jiang and i do speak English,Jared likes to say i don"t because he thinks it makes me more authentic.And i got second in the national math competition.

其實我姓江，而且我會說英語。賈瑞德只是覺得他這樣說會讓我顯得更具有說服力。而且我只在全國大賽中拿了亞軍。

I work for the bank,i don"t think like a bank.Big bank small bank,i"d like to make money,all right?

我是為銀行工作，但是我卻不受制於銀行。大銀行小銀行，能讓我掙錢就是好銀行。

Let me put in this way,i"m standing in front of a burning house,and i offered you fire insurance on it.

這樣跟你們說吧，我現在正在隔岸觀火，還賣給你們火災保險。

[名廚解釋CDO]

Here"s word famous chef to explain.

有請世界名廚來解釋一下。

Okay ,I"m a chef on Sunday afternoon setting the menu at a big restaurant.I ordered my fish on Friday which is the mortgage bond that Micheal shorted.But some of the fresh fish doesn"t sell,i don"t know why,mabye it just came out haibut has the intelligence of a dolphin.So what am i going to do?Throw all the this unsold fish,which is the BBB level of the bond in the garbage and take the loss?No way.Being the crafty and morally onerous chef that i am,whatever crappy levels of the bond i don"t sell,i throw it into seafood stew.See,it"s not old fish,it"s whold new thing.And the best part is they"re eating 3-day-old halibut.that,is CDO.

好。我現在正在周末的餐廳里開菜單。周五的時候我訂了一批魚，這就像邁克爾要沽空的房產抵押債券。不過大家聽信新聞說比目魚有海豚的智商，所以其他魚就賣不出去，這就像BBB房貸。所以我能怎麼辦，把賣不掉的魚扔掉認賠了事？開什麼玩笑，我可是精明又節省的主廚。這些賣不掉的債券，我全部拿來燉海鮮湯。然後它們就再不是賣不掉的魚了，這變成一道全新的菜。最棒的是，我們在給客人吃三天前的東西。這就是擔保債券憑證。

[賈瑞德兜售房貸保險]

Fuckin A,Jered.

講的真好，賈瑞德。

Shut your fucking mouth.

閉嘴。

This guy walks into my office and says,those same bankers got greedy,they lost track of the market.

這個傢伙走進我的辦公室跟我說，那些銀行家太貪婪了，以致於看不清市場

And i can profit off thier stuipidity?

我正可以靠著他們的愚蠢獲利。

Fuck,yeah,i want him to be right.

爽啦。我真希望他猜對了。

How come you don"t hate this guy?He"s everything you taught us not to trust.

你為什麼不討厭他？他就是你說過我們最要防範的那種人。

I can"t hate him,he"s so transparent in his self-interest that i kind of respect him.

我怎麼討厭他？他敢於跟我們共享自己的利益，我還有點敬佩他。

Look,it"s two very simple questions.is there a housing bubble?And if there is,how exposed are the banks?

現在就兩個很簡單的問題。房市會有泡沫嗎？如果有，銀行的風險有多大？

Let"s get on this quickly too,because if he"s right,every loser with a couple million bucks and a fund is gonna be jumping on this.

我們趕緊研究一下這個。如果他猜對了，大家只要有點錢就能買。

[查理傑米客廳面試]

It"s just a meeting though,you know?people have meeting all the time.

只是見個面，對不對。誰都要開會的

Chris,i"m on Ted"s desk.

我叫克里斯，泰德的助理。

We"re so excited to get set up on you trading platform.

我們很期待能用你們公司的交易平台。

Cool.hear,have a seat a second,

棒極了。來坐。

So I...Ted had asked me to do some meeting prep,but i cannot find any marketing materials on your guys.Could we see some of your offering documents?Can you tell us how much you manage?

泰德要我準備你們的資料，不過我完全找不到你們的營銷數據。我可以看你們的擔保文件嗎？請問現在你們在管理多少錢？

Of course,we"re doing $30 million right now.But we started four years ago with $110,000.So as you can see,this is pretty phenomenal returns.

當然。目前有三千萬。但我們起步的時候只有11萬。所以這真是非常可觀的報酬率。

That"s really cool.But you guys are under the capital requirments for an ISDA.

你們很棒。不過你們的資本根本沒有達到我們的門坎。

By how much?

還差多少？

By one billion four hundred seventy million,so...a lot。

還差14億七千萬。所以還差...很多。

This makes me look bad,doesn"t it,that we didn"t know what the capital requirments were?

我們連資金入門門坎都不知道就來找你，是不是很不專業？

It"s not great.But...keep up those returns and give us a call way down the line.You know.Okay?have a good one guys.

確實有點。不過...等你們到了門坎歡迎再來找我們。就這樣好嗎？好運。

Shit! who the fuck schedules a meeting at 4:50 in the afternoon?......I"m young yet,i can still do something with my life.

操！哪個傻逼會把會議定在下午四點五十！我還年輕，可以做點其他的事。

Gentlemen,i need you to leave.

先生，你們該離開了。

Yep,yep,we"re going,let"s go.

好好，我們就走了。

Look at this look at this,this guy,says that the housing market"s a giant market.This is crazy,this is crazy stuff.And the whole housing market is about to collapse?

你看這裡，看這，這個人說美國房市是個大泡沫。靠這太扯了。他說整個房市都會崩盤？

「For Jamie and Charlie,the housing market doomsday prediction was musci to thier ears.They had started working out of Jamie"s garage.with $110,000 Jamie had saved taking sailboats up and down the East Cost."

對於房市末日的預言正和傑米查理的心意。他們原先只是在傑米的車庫創業，靠著傑米在東岸運帆船存的11萬。

Our investment strategy is simple.People hate to think of bad things happening，so they always understimate thier likelihood

我們的投資策略很簡單，人們不願意接受壞事，所以總是低估它們發生的可能性

What he said,

我同意。

「They strategy was simple and brilliant.Jamie and Charlie founds markets will sell options very cheaply on thing they will think will never happen.So when they were wrong,they were wrong small.But when they were right,they were right big.Within a few years they had turned $110,000 into $30million.But then it was time to go to New York city,so far,it wasn"t going very well.

他們的投資策略很討巧。這兩人發現只要大家都相信樓市不會崩盤，期權就會賣得很便宜。這樣他們要賠也不會賠得很多，賺的話卻能盆滿缽滿。沒幾年11萬就這樣滾到3千萬。是時候向紐約進軍了，不過目前為止，他們似乎並不很順利。

[本出場]

Ben Rickert was a former trader in singapore for Chase who quit the whole game in disgust.He just happened to be Jamie"s neighbour when they were in Colorado and they met walking dogs.But Ben was dark,he didn"t think the whole system would fail,he thought the whold world was going down

本.瑞克特原為摩根在新加坡的交易員，後來因為覺得交易齷齪而辭職。他是傑米在科羅拉多的鄰居，兩人因為遛狗認識。但是本天性悲觀，他覺得對這種體制的改變無能無力，而整個世界都將走向毀滅。

「Every one of these vegetables is fresh from my garden.you guys should start your own garden.Seeds are gonna be the new currency.」

你們吃的蔬菜都是我自己種的。你們也應該自己種點。種子在未來會成為貨幣。

Ben had real experience in a big bank,Jamie and Charlie had never been in the Manhatten bank bathroom.

本在大銀行里工作了很多年，而傑米查理連那些銀行的廁所都沒去過。

But ben was done with the banking world.He was very clear.

不過本早已退出江湖。他會實話實說。

[探訪房屋現狀]

Oh god,i hate this.it"s a total waste of time.

好煩，完全是在浪費時間。

Oh come on,would you relax?

別這樣，放鬆點。

There"s a housing development 45 minutes outside town.Mark want us to check that out first.

距城外45分鐘路程的地方有住宅開發，馬克想我們先去看看。

Well I hope there"re some Cuban restaurants on the way there.Because i heard the Cuban food is amazing in Miami.

唉，真希望路上能有古巴餐廳。因為聽說邁阿密的古巴料理很棒。

Please don"t be chipper in the face of me being miserable.It really makes me hate you.

我很慘的時候別在我面前爽。我真的會恨死你。

How is wanting to eat good food being chipper？

想吃好的還有錯了？

Hello？Who do these go for?$425,000 each?

有人在嗎？這些房子要賣給誰？每間42萬？

What do you want?

幹嘛？

I』m lookin for Harvey.

你好，我想找哈瑞。

You want my landlord"s dog?

你要找我房東的狗？

...You landlord filled up his mortgage application using his dog"s name?

你房東用狗的名字申請房貸？

I guess so.Wait,has that asshole not being pay his mortgage?"Cause i"ve been paying my rent.

估計是。慢著，那吊毛沒付房貸嗎？我可一直都按時交房租啊。

Well,yeah,he is over 90 days deadlinquent.

是，他已經超過90天沒繳房貸了。

Seriously,man,am I gonna have to leave?『Cause my kid just get settled in school,man .

說真的，該不會讓我搬走吧？我的小孩才剛轉到這個學校來。

You should talk to your landlord about that,i"m sorry,i don"t have any more information.You have a great day.

你應該找你的房東談談，抱歉情況我也掌握得不多。祝你好運。

Seriously man,is everything gonna be okay?It"s not my fault,dude,i"ve been paying...

說真的，真的不會有事嗎？不是我的錯，我明明都有按時付。

[馬克組暗訪]

Yeah,bithc better like me，send her ass to Cabo.

那女人很喜歡我，我讓她業績好到去度假

How many loans do you write each month?

你每個月辦理幾件貸款？

About 60.

60件左右。

What was it four years ago?

四年前呢？

10...maybe 15.I was a bartendr.Now i own boat.

10到15起吧。我以前只是個酒保，現在我自己擁有一艘船。

So do applicants ever get rejected?

有人申請然後遭到駁回嗎？

Seriously?Look,if they get rejected,i suck at my job.

你開玩笑吧。我要是駁回他們我吃什麼。

Even if they had no money?

就算他們沒錢也可以申請？

I just leave the income section blank if I want.Corporate doesn"t care.These people just want homes,and they go with the flow.

我在收入那欄留白就好了，上面也不會管。這些人想要房子，一切跟著感覺走就行。

Not our fault,simply the way the world works.

不是我們的錯。世界就是這樣子。

Your companies don"t verify?Could you hold on a second?

你們公司不會確認一遍申請數據嗎？...失陪一下。

I don"t get it.why are they confessing?

我不懂。他們幹嘛不打自招？

They"re not confessing.They"re bragging.

才不是呢。他們在吹牛逼。

It"s time to call bullshit.

該反制這些欺詐行為了。

Bullshit on what?

反制什麼？

Every fucking thing.

整個金融體制。

[委內特]

Are you done?

罵夠沒有？

God,i pull a muscle in my back from yelling.

操，罵人罵得我後背肌肉都拉傷了。

Mortgage defaults have done nothing but go up ，yet you quote us at a higher price on the bonds.Please explain that to me,there"s no way that makes sense.Why shouldn"t we back out of this trade right now?

房貸債券竟然只升不降，你還在這跟我們獅子大開口。麻煩解釋一下，太沒天理了。為什麼我們不能現在退出？

Didn"t I say that the big banks were clueless?didn"t i say that?Now thier foot"s on fire,they think thier steak is done,and you"re surprised?

我難道沒跟你們說過那些大銀行根本搞不清楚狀況嗎？現在他們火燒眉毛，還以為自己的牛排快煎好了。然後你們就沉不住氣了？

That"s not stupidity,that"s fraud.

這不是愚蠢。他們是在騙人。

Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal,and i"ll have my wife"s brother arrested.

愚蠢跟違法有區別？那我現在就叫警察把我小舅子給抓起來。

I guess you just don"t reliaze how clueless the whole system really is.

你根本就不知道整個體制有多傻逼。

Yes,there"s some shady shit going down，but trust me,it"s fueled by stupidity!

是，確實是有一些不法勾當。但你信我，違法全部都是源於無知。

[拉斯維加斯論壇]

Ladies and getlemen.Bussiness is good. Profits are strong ，and the mortgage continues to be the bedrock on which this economy is buit.

房貸市場前景光明，利潤回報豐厚。房貸仍然是美國的經濟支柱。

And yes,we had to take some losses in our subprime department last year,but those losses will be contained at only 5%.

的確我們次貸部門去年有一定損失，但只有5%。

I have a question,please.

我有個問題。

Sir,the Q&A is after my statements.but you know what,you seem anxious,how can l help you ?

先生，我說完就會開放提問。但是您看起來很著急。有什麼能幫到你的嗎？

Would you say that it is a possibility or a probability that subprime losses stop at 5%?Thank you.

你覺得次貸損失真的不會超過5%嗎？

I would say it is a very strong probability,indeed.

非常有可能。

Zero!Zero! there"s a 0% chance that your subprime losses will stop at 5%.

不可能，完全不可能。你們的次貸損失絕對不可能維持在5%。

Our subprime department is fine,

我們的次貸部門很健全。

[前女友爆黑幕]

Just hold on,okay?my brother"s ex-girlfriend works for the SEC.She just told me she"s in town,okay?So if we are missing something ,maybe she can tell me .you know,give me some insight.

別急，先聽我說。我哥前女友在證券交易所工作，她跟我說她會來這裡。所以如果我們有什麼疏忽的地方，她會告訴我的，給我們點意見。

In the meantime,you go to the main floor and price some swaps.

這個時間，你就去主樓層談信用違約互換的價格。

Well,autually,we"re about to invest in housing bonds,and i was wondering if the SEC is worried about them at all.I know you"re not allowed to tell me specifics,but just generally.

我們現在想投資房貸債券，我想問你們交易所會不會擔心這個交易債券。

I know you"re not allowed to tell me specifics,but just generally.

我知道你不方便透露太多，但說個大概就行。

I"m not here for SEC,i"m here my own dime.

我不是代表證券交易來的。我自費過來的。

I』m floating my resume to some big banks

我最近在給各大銀行投簡歷。

How are you floating your resume to big banks?I mean,you"re supposed to be the ones,you know,policing the big banks.

你怎麼會送履歷給他們？你不應該是監督他們的人嗎？

Grow up,Jamie.

成熟點，傑米。

There"re must be some kind of law against working for a financial institution right after you"ve been working in financial regulation,right?

你既然在金融管制機構工作，肯定會有法律限制你去金融機構工作的啊。

No,no.

完全沒有。

[邁克爾壓力山大]

Lewis,can you come in early tomorrow,please?

路易斯，明天你能早點來么？

Dr.burry,if the investors withdraw,what"s going to happen here?Are we done?

布朗醫生，如果那些投資人撤資，我們怎麼辦？我們就完了嗎？

Honestly,I don"t know.

我還真不知道。

The bonds aren"t going down,they won"t move.it"s possible that we"re in a completely fraudulent system.

房貸債券沒有跌，它們穩如泰山。也許我們根本就身處一個信用評級造假的世界！

Or...you"re wrong.

也可能是你估計錯誤。

...Sure,it"s possible i"m wrong.i just don"t know how.I guess when someone"s wrong,they never...They never know how.

是。可能是我錯了。我只是想不通，怎麼可能？呵呵，可能每個犯錯的人都想不通自己哪裡錯了吧。

[本發飆]

Don"t do that.Stop,stop.Stop it ,stop.

別跳了。別跳了。

What?

怎麼了？

Do you have any idea what you just did?

你知道你們剛剛做了什麼嗎？

Come on,we"re just made the deal of our lifetimes,we should celebrate

怎麼啦？我們剛剛做完一項千載難逢的交易，慶祝一下嘛。

You just bet against the American economy.Which means if we"re right,people lose homes,people lose jobs.people lose retirement saving.people lose pensions.

你們在跟整個美國經濟對賭。如果我們真的贏了，就意味著人民會失去房子、工作、存款和退休金。

You know what i hate about fucking banking?

你知道我最噁心銀行業哪一點么？

It reduced people to numbers.Here"s a number,every 1% unemployment goes up,40,000 people die.Did you know that?

最噁心銀行只把人簡化成數字。這就是數字：失業率每上升1個百分點，4萬人就會死。懂么？

Just don"t fucking dance.

別他媽跳了。

Whoa,i just got really scared.

天吶，我突然覺得好恐怖。

[逼急邁克爾]

As you may know,our agreement allows me to take extraodinary measures when markets aren"t functioning properly.

我們曾達成共識：我們的合約允許我採取非常手段，來對付脫軌的市場。

I currently have reasons to believe the mortgage bond market is fraudulent.

我目前有理由相信房貸債券市場，正遭到有心操弄。

So in order to protect investors from this fraudulent market,i decided to restrict investor"s withdrawals.

所以為了保護我的投資人免受其害，我決定禁止投資人贖回資金，

Until further notice.

除非我發布通知。

Sincerely,Dr.Micheal J.Burry.

邁克爾布朗醫生敬上。

「I"m suing."

我要提出起訴。

「Everyone,deep in thier heart,is waiting for the end of the world to come.「

每個人的內心深處，其實都在期待世界末日。

「Will you listen to me ?This is like the end of capitalism.This is like the Dark Ages all over gain.

你聽我說啊？這是資本主義的終結。我們又要回到黑暗時代。

[華爾街日報冷門羹]

What am i supposed to do ?you want me to write a piece called"We"re All Fucked 「？

你們想我怎麼做？寫篇文章標題叫「我們死定了」？

Yes,that"s a perfect tittle!This level of criminality is unprecedented,even on fucking Wall Street.

多好的標題。這是華爾街前所未有的犯罪規模。

Jamie....and this is me being honest here,okay?

傑米，我就直話直說了吧。

It took my years to buid my relationship on Wall Street.No bank or ratings agency is going to confirm the story like this,just because it comes from two guys in a ...sorry,garage .

我花了很多年才跟華爾街打好關係。沒有銀行或信用機構會證實這則消息來源的真實性，尤其這種消息出自兩個住在車庫裡的人。

I thought you were for real,you know,i"ll have to say i really did.

媽的我一直以為你很正派。真的。

Yeah you try being for real for a three-year-old ,and a wife getting her master"s degree.

我也想正派。但我有三歲小孩要養，老婆還在念碩士。

I』m not gonna burn my reputation on your wild hunch.

我不想因為你們的直覺就斷送名聲。

Thanks for coming ,guys.

很高興見到你們。

[馬克陳情]

Now anyone who knows me knows that i have no problem telling they"re wrong.

認識我的人都知道，我總是勇於指出別人的錯誤。

We live in a era of fraud in America.

美國正處於欺詐的時代

Not just in banking ,but in government,education,religion,food,even baseball.

不止銀行在欺騙大眾，政府，教育，宗教，食物，甚至棒球界都在騙。

What bothers me isn"t that fraud is not nice or fraud is mean.

困擾我的並不是欺騙本身的不道德和惡毒，

It"s that for 15,000 years fraud and short-sighted thinking had never,ever worked.Not once.

而是持續了一萬五千年的欺騙和短視，這根本就行不通的。

Eventually,people got,caught,things go south.

遲早我們會東窗事發，鋃鐺入獄。

When the hell did we forget all that?

我們什麼時候才能吸取教訓？

I thought we were better than this,i really did.

我想我們人類還能有點良知。真的。

And the fact that we"re not doesn"t make me feel all right or superior.It makes me fee...Sad,

事實上我們並沒有。我沒有因此覺得自己多高尚而與眾不同。我只覺得...很悲哀。

I just know at the end of the day,average people are going to be the ones that are gonna have to pay for all this.Because they always,always do.

我只知道，到頭來，收拾爛攤子的只會是普通老百姓。每次都是這樣。

That"s my two cents.thanks you.

以上。謝謝。

[邁克爾難過自己關]

I met my wife on Match.com.My profile said,"I am a medical student with only one eye,an awkward social manner,and $145,000 in student loans,she wrote back,"you"re just what i"ve been looking for."She meant honest.So let me be honest.

我在一個配對網站認識了我太太。當時我的檔案里寫的是：「我是一個單眼的醫學生，行為怪異，還背著14萬的助學貸款。她回信說：」你就是我要找的人。」我知道她的意思是我很坦誠。所以現在我依然要對你們坦誠。

Making money is not like i thought it would be .this buisness kills the part of life that is essential,the part that had nothing to do with business.

我對賺錢的看法有點改觀了。這個產業扼殺了老百姓的基本生活，包括那些原本跟金融業毫無瓜葛的東西。

For the past few years,my insides,have felt like they"re eating themselves.All the people I respected won"t talk to me anymore,except through lawyers.

兩年來我的內心一直備受煎熬。我尊敬的那些人再也不理我了，除非通過律師找我。

People...want authority to tell them how to value things but they choose these authority not based on facts or results.They choose it because it seems authoritative and familiar.And i"m not and never have been"familiar".

人們依靠權威機構來評等，但他們不是不用事實或結果去評估它們，只盲從於權威或習慣。而我從來不是一個讓人覺得親切和習慣的人。

So...so i"ve come to the sullen reliazation that i must close down the fund.

所以我總算痛苦地領悟到，是時候停止這個對沖基金了。

[結束]

「I have a feeling that in a few years people are gonna be doing what they always do when the economy tanks.「

我有預感。沒過幾年，人們又會重複經濟崩盤時做的事情。

」They will be blamming immigrants and poor people."

然後嫁禍於新移民和窮人身上。

But Mark was wrong,in the few years that followed,hundreds of bankers and rating agencies executives go to jail.The SEC was completely overhauled .And the Congress had no choice but to break up the big banks.

馬克估計錯了。隨後的幾年，無數的銀行家和信評機構人員去坐牢，國會被迫拆分大銀行。

Just kidding.

開玩笑的。

The bank took the money the American people gave them and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses，And lobby Congress to kill big reform.And then they blamed immigrants and poor people.

銀行繼續拿著人們的錢，付給自己高額紅利，並遊說國會取消改革。隨後把矛頭指向移民和窮人。

And this time,even teacher.

甚至教師。

「You knwo once we sell,we"ll be just like the rest of them.You know that.

你知道，一旦我們現在賣了，我們就跟那些人一樣了。「

「No,we"re not,we"re not the bad guys here."

沒有，我們沒跟他們一樣。

"We didn"t defraud the American people and prey on thier dreams of owning a home.All right?「

我們並沒有欺詐老百姓，也沒有利用他們的買房夢。對不對？

「They did.Now we get to kick them in the teeth."

他們有。所以現在我們要讓他們打落牙齒和血吞。

「i means,it"s now or never,Mark."

再不行動就太遲了。

「Okay.Sell it all.「

好吧。賣空它。

-END-

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