令人分心的社交網路會降低勞動生產率嗎？
FOR many it is a reflex as unconscious as breathing. Hit a stumbling-block during an important task (like, say, writing a column)? The hand reaches for the phone and opens the social network of choice. A blur of time passes, and half an hour or more of what ought to have been productive effort is gone. A feeling of regret is quickly displaced by the urge to see what has happened on Twitter in the past 15 seconds. Some time after the deadline, the editor asks when exactly to expect the promised copy. Distraction is a constant these days; supplying it is the business model of some of the world』s most powerful firms. As economists search for explanations for sagging productivity, some are asking whether the inability to focus for longer than a minute is to blame.
很多人不在意到這個問題，就如同不會在意呼吸一樣。在一項重要的任務完成過程中（比如寫一篇專欄文章）踢掉一塊絆腳石？手不由自主地拿起手機，打開社交網站的首選。時間就這樣一點點流逝，一個小時或者更多的有效工作時間偷偷溜走。後悔的情緒迅速地衝動所掩蓋，要看看推特過去15秒發生了什麼的事。在結稿日期過了一段時間之後，編輯問到底什麼時候才能說好了要給的文章。現在，你一直處於分心的狀態； 提供分心狀態是一些世界上影響力最大的企業的經營模式。經濟學家開始尋找這種低效率工作的原因，一些人認為對事物缺乏超過一分鐘的注意力或許是罪魁禍首。
The technological onslaught has been a long time building. Bosses no doubt found the knock of the telegraph boy or the clack of the ticker-tape machine an abominable interruption. Fixed-line desk phones were an intrusion in their day, before the mobile phone brought work interruptions into the home. But the web is different, with its unending news cycle, social networks humming with constant conversation, and news feeds algorithmically structured to keep users scrolling and sharing. The louder the din, the greater the distraction—and the harder to tune it out for fear of missing important information.
長期以來，科技的一直在迅猛發展。企業大佬們毫無疑問發現電信設備或者自動收報機紙條是一個使人分心的禍害。在移動手機進入人們的家庭之前，桌上固定電話機是人們日常工作的闖入者。但是，網路顛覆了一切，網路里有著無休止的新聞播送，社交網路里充斥著即時交流，演算法推送的新聞流讓用戶不斷地刷屏和轉發。消息提示音越響，人們就越是分心——同時也就越難關閉這種聲音，害怕錯過任何重要的信息。
Distractions clearly affect performance on the job. In a recent essay, Dan Nixon of the Bank of England pointed to a mass of compelling evidence that they could also be eating into productivity growth. Depending on the study you pick, smartphone-users touch their device somewhere between twice a minute to once every seven minutes. Conducting tasks while receiving e-mails and phone calls reduces a worker』s IQ by about ten points relative to working in uninterrupted quiet. That is equivalent to losing a night』s sleep, and twice as debilitating as using marijuana. By one estimate, it takes nearly half an hour to recover focus fully for the task at hand after an interruption. What』s more, Mr Nixon notes, constant interruptions accustom workers to distraction, teaching them, in effect, to lose focus and seek diversions.
注意力分心的的確確影響到了人們的工作表現。最近發表的一篇論文中，英格蘭銀行的丹·尼克松拿出了大量的證據證明了注意力不集中會極大地不利於提升生產力。不管什麼研究，智能手機的用戶會以一分鐘兩次到七分鐘一次不等的頻率觸摸手機。相比於不受干擾的工作，一邊工作，一邊接收電子郵件或者接聽手機的電話，這樣會降低工作者的10分的智商。這與通宵熬夜是一樣的效果，而第二次就會像吸了大麻一樣使人上癮。有估計稱，在受到打擾之後，人們需要將近半個小時的時間才能完全恢復集中注意力，重新投入工作。此外，尼克松還指出，不斷地受到打擾會使員工習慣於注意力不集中，這些實際上是在告訴他們不集中注意力，要分心。
Could this explain the rich world』s productivity slowdown? In a paper published in 2007, Sinan Aral and Erik Brynjolfsson, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Marshall Van Alstyne, of Boston University, analysed firms』 use of information technology and its effects on labour productivity and revenue growth. They found an inverted U-shape pattern associated with multitasking and productivity. An initial increase in multitasking from the increased use of IT seems to raise productivity. But later, the accumulation of balls to be juggled reduces performance and increases the incidence of error.
這能解釋發達世界的生產力下降的問題嗎？在2007年發表的一份論文中，麻省理工學院的思南·安拉，艾瑞克·布林約爾松與波士頓大學的馬歇爾·范阿爾斯泰恩就分析了企業對信息科技的使用，以及對勞動生產效率和收入的增長的影響。他們發現多重任務工作和勞動效率之間的一個倒U型相關性模型。最初，隨著信息科技的使用，多重任務量增長，然後到達生產效率的頂峰。但此後，雪球滾得越來越大之後，也使人們的工作表現受到了影響，使得出錯率加大。
IT does help workers in all sorts of ways. It speeds communication and allows documents to be shared remotely. The web makes finding information far simpler and quicker than it was in a world of paper archives. Productivity surged in the late 1990s and early 2000s as e-mail, digital databases and the web spread. The benefits technology brought, at that time, seemed to outweigh the cost of distraction. Since the mid-2000s, however, productivity growth has tumbled, perhaps because the burden of distraction has crossed some critical threshold.
信息科技確實以各種各樣的方式幫助了工作者，加快了人們之間的交流，能讓人們遠程分享文件。比起在浩如煙海的紙質文獻中找資料，互聯網也使得尋找信息變得更加快捷簡單。從上世紀90年代開始，勞動生產率開始迅猛提高，到了21世紀隨著電子郵件，電子資料庫和互聯網的普及，勞動生產率又得到了提高。在彼時，科技帶來的好處貌似是超過了分心帶來的代價。然而，自從21世紀中期開始，勞動生產量的增長開始受挫，也許是因為分心帶來的負擔遇到了不得不面對的障礙。
But this is surely not the whole story. Performance across industries does not fit very well with the idea that distraction is the main cause of weak productivity. Over the past decade, labour-productivity growth in both manufacturing and construction has been particularly disappointing—and the problem can hardly be desk jockeys frittering away time on Pinterest.
但是，這顯然不是全部。不同行業員工的工作表現並不完全符合這種觀點，即分心是勞動生產率變得疲軟的主要原因。在過去的十年中，不論是在工業製造領域還是建築行業，勞動生產率的增長都有其令人失望和沮喪，這個問題不可能是因為文案人員把時間浪費在了看Pinterest上。
Weak productivity is also a consequence of the reallocation of workers from industries with relatively high rates of growth to more stagnant ones. In America health care and education, where labour productivity is persistently low, account for more than half of total employment growth since 2000.
生產力增長乏力也是勞動力從高增長行業向增長停滯行業的重新分配的結果。在美國的醫療衛生和教育行業，自2000年起，這些行業的勞動生產就持續地保持低迷，佔總就業增長的比例超50%。
How then to reconcile evidence of the toll taken by new technologies with the difficulty in detecting a productivity cost? One possibility is that firms have not been as strenuous as might be expected in maximising output per worker. Employment does not fall much in response to minimum-wage rises because output per worker goes up. That is partly because workers try harder and partly because firms, faced with a new cost, focus more on tracking worker performance. Similarly, productivity leapt in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, and not because firms laid off less productive workers. Rather, workers appear to have upped their game to convince bosses not to sack them. After a decade of low wages and high profits, firms may be feeling complacent. That, and their consequent failure to invest, may be a better explanation of weak productivity than workers』 distraction.
那麼，如何協調新技術所帶來的損失和檢測生產率成本的困難呢?一種可能性是，企業沒有像人們期望的那樣，在每個工人的產出最大化上達到預期的那樣高強度。對於最低工資的提高，就業率並沒有下降多少，因為每個工人的產出增加了。這在一定程度上是因為工人們更努力地工作，一個原因是企業面臨著新的成本，更多地關注於跟蹤工人的表現。相似地，在金融危機之後，生產率迅速上升，而不是因為企業解僱了生產率較低的工人。相反，工人們似乎提高了他們的表現能力，以說服老闆們不要解僱他們。在經歷了十年的低工資和高利潤之後，企業可能會感到自滿。這一點，以及隨之而來的投資失敗，或許是對生產率疲弱的一個更好的解釋，而不是工人們的分心。
Tweet dreams are made of this
推特夢塑造了這一切。
Whether or not brains fried by constant interruption are slowing growth, the digital deluge takes a toll. Mr Nixon reckons that distracted workers become less empathetic, a serious side-effect in an economy where human connections with customers are cast as a defence against automation. Distraction also appears to reduce reported happiness, and that effect may be magnified if it means that fewer tasks are completed to the workers』 satisfaction—or if the source of the distraction is another distressing news alert. So this is yet another reason to yearn for a truly tight labour market: when firms cannot spare an idle moment they might get serious about trimming productivity-sapping intrusions from the workplace, to everyone』s benefit. Right, time for a tweet.
無論是否是因為大腦被不斷地打擾而降低了生產的速度，過度使用電子產品的確應該受到批判。尼克松認為，注意力不集中的工人變得缺乏同理心，這在一個與客戶建立人際關係的經濟體系，作為對自動化的防禦的經濟體系中，是一種嚴重的負面影響； 此外，分心也使人變得沒有以前開心，如果這意味著更少的任務完成讓工人對自己的滿意度降低，抑或者如果分心的由頭是另一篇令人沮喪的新聞快訊，這種影響也許還會被放大。因此，這也是人們渴望一個真正緊密的勞動力市場的另一個原因:當公司不能騰出空閑的時候，他們可能會認真考慮削減工作的生產力，這對每個人都有利。好了，現在，是時候發一個推文了。
編譯：YINGXIAO
編輯：翻吧君
來源：經濟學人（2017.12.07）
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