麥格里中國經濟分析：我們預計美中貿易衝突最終會與中國達成一致，數據改進支持風險偏好去槓桿化仍然是政策重點下半年面臨阻力

新聞 05-07

麥格里中國經濟分析：我們預計美中貿易衝突最終會與中國達成一致，數據改進支持風險偏好去槓桿化仍然是政策重點下半年面臨阻力

The note includes April data forecasts and a monthly chartbook.

Data to improve in April: Economic data could show some signs of recovery in April, as that in March was biased down by the late CNY holidays. Industrial production growth could rebound to 6.4% yoy from 6.0% in March, implied by the rebounding daily coal consumption in April. Other high-frequency data also conveys the same message, including higher steel mill operating rate (Fig 18),

lower steel inventory (Fig 16) and rebounding cement prices (Fig 28).

【機器翻譯+小編腦殘】該說明包括4月份的數據預測和月度圖表。

月份數據有所改善

經濟數據可能出現一定的復甦跡象，4月份，3月份因為人民幣假期過晚而有所偏差。工業生產產量增長可能從3月份的6.0％回升至6.4％，這意味著4月份每日煤炭消費反彈。其他高頻數據也是傳達了同樣的信息，包括更高的鋼廠開工率（圖18），降低鋼鐵庫存（圖16）和反彈水泥價格（圖28）。

Trade growth to rebound in April: We expect trade growth to rebound to 8% in April as the very weak export growth in March is largely due to the late CNY holidays. Moreover, the recent trade dispute could cause exporters to frontload the shippings on fears of higher tariffs later. Trump』s econ team including Mnuchin, Lighthizer and Navarro will soon visit China for trade negotiation. Same as one month ago, we expect the US-China trade conflict to end up with China』s concession through opening market, lowering tariff and increasing imports (The most likely outcome of the US-China trade conflict, March 23). That said, while the trade dispute may have little impact on the overall economy, investors still use it as an excuse to cut positions amid rising growth uncertainties. As such, the improved economic data in April might help support risk appetite.

4月貿易增長反彈

我們預計貿易增長將在8月份回升至8％，4月份，由於3月份出口增長疲弱主要是由於人民幣假期。此外，最近的貿易糾紛可能導致出口商提前出後口，擔心關稅上調。包括特朗普的經濟團隊Mnuchin，Lighthizer和Navarro訪問中國進行貿易談判。相同，就像一個月前一樣，我們預計美中貿易衝突最終會與中國達成一致，通過開放市場讓步，降低關稅和增加進口（3月23日美中貿易衝突的最可能結果）。這就是說，雖然貿易爭端可能對整體經濟影響不大，投資者仍在使用這是在增長不確定性增加的情況下裁減頭寸的借口。就這樣，4月份經濟數據好轉可能有助於支持風險偏好。

Soft inflation and falling bond yields: At the beginning of this year, the market had three consensus: Robust econ growth, pick-up in inflation and rising bond yields. Now all the three have turned upside down. For inflation, CPI inflation surprised on the downside in March to 2.1% yoy, but it could fall further to 1.9% in April due to weak food prices, especially the plunging pork prices (Fig 23). For the bond yields, due to the clampdown on shadow credit, banks now have to park the extra money in the bond market. It has led to a bull run in China』s bond market so far this year, diverging from the US market (Fig 42).

溫和通脹和債券收益率下降

在今年年初，市場有三個共識：強勁的經濟增長，通脹回升和債券上漲產量。現在，所有這三個都顛倒了。對於通貨膨脹，CPI通脹3月份的下滑令人驚訝，同比下降2.1％，但可能進一步下滑至1.9％4月因食品價格疲軟，尤其是豬肉價格暴跌（圖23）。為了債券收益率，由於對影子信貸的限制，銀行現在不得不停止收購債券市場的額外資金。這導致了中國債券市場的牛市今年遠離美國市場（圖42）。

Deleveraging remains the policy focus: Regarding policy stance, we expect it to retain a tightening bias. At the beginning of this year, the debate was whether the PBoC would soon hike the benchmark rate. Now with the softening growth momentum, the debate has changed to whether policy makers have started loosening. In our view, both are overdone. Top leaders have set deleveraging as the priority for this year and it』s unlikely for them to change so quickly. Regarding the recent RRR cut, it is mainly for structural adjustment, not for easing liquidity, in our view (The myth of 100bp RRR cut: A move not for liquidity easing, but for financial deleveraging, April 17). While the recent Politburo meeting using the phrase 「boost domestic demand」 and some street analysts interpret it as a signal of loosening, we view it more like a response to the recent US-China trade dispute by calling for lower reliance on external demand.

去槓桿化仍然是政策重點

關於政策立場，我們期待它保持收緊偏見。今年年初，辯論是否是中國央行很快會上調基準利率。現在隨著增長趨緩動力，辯論已經轉變為決策者是否已經開始鬆動。我們認為，兩者都過度。最高領導者已將去槓桿化定為這是今年的優先事項，他們不太可能改變這麼快。關於近期降準的存款準備金率，主要用於結構性調整，不是為了緩解流動性，在我們看來（100RB存款準備金率降低的神話：此舉不是為了緩解流動性，而是為了緩解流動性金融去槓桿化，4月17日）。而最近的政治局會議使用短語「助推內需」，一些街頭分析師將其解讀為一個信號的鬆動，我們認為它更像是對近期美中貿易的回應要求減少對外部需求的依賴。

Weakening credit growth boding ill for growth ahead: The deleveraging push has clearly weighed on the shadow credit flows to the real economy (Fig 37).

Recently we highlighted that the M1-M2 growth gap, which has turned negative for two consecutive months, as a signal of growth inflection point (What does a negative M1-M2 gap tell us?). Meanwhile, corporate earnings growth is on a down-trend, as suggested by the monthly industrial profit data (Fig 49). As such, while the economy improves in April, it could see more headwinds in 2H18.

弱化信貸增長對未來增長的不利影響

去槓桿化推動已經清楚地影響了對實體經濟的影子信貸流動（圖37）。最近我們強調M1-M2的增長差距已經變為負值連續兩個月，作為增長拐點的信號（什麼是負M1-M2差距告訴我們？）。同時，企業盈利增長在a正如月度行業利潤數據所示（圖49）。因此，雖然4月份經濟好轉，但下半年可能面臨更多阻力。