靈活性對政策收益至關重要
Flexibility crucial for policy gains
By CHEN JIA | China Daily | Updated: 2018-05-11 07:49
Prudent monetary stance "can help China deal with economic risks"
[Photo/VCG]
Chinese policymakers need to be more vigilant and decisive while formulating monetary policy and keep it flexible to deal with uncertainties that could hamper economic growth in the coming months, economists said.
Globally, monetary policy normalization in some large developed economies, or the retreat from quantitative easing after the global financial crisis, may become one of the major uncertainties for China, requiring highly cautious policymaking that aims at building buffers and increasing resilience, a group of economists from the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.
"But historically, market turmoil has often followed monetary normalization," which requires a premium on prudence, said Alfred Schipke, the IMF"s senior representative for China.
He said recent US bond yields and dollar movements underscore the uncertainty and "Asia could be materially affected given its high household and corporate leverage".
Some economists said that a too sharp slowdown of broad money supply, or M2, as well as credit growth, may harm the macroeconomy but in a lagging period.
Wang Yongli, academic committee member of the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China, called for "vigilance" on possible economic weakening from negative impact such as multiple financial tightening policies taking effect at the same time, which might magnify the effect and restrain economic growth momentum.
"Monetary policy should be flexible and also have a response plan to deal with the possible economic cooling," he said.
China"s M2 growth rate slowed to 8.2 percent in March, down from 8.8 percent in February and 8.6 percent in January. Yuan-denominated new loans also showed slower expansion in the first quarter compared with last year, according to data from the People"s Bank of China, the central bank.
In 2017, China"s broad money supply growth only recorded 8.2 percent, far away from the goal of 12 percent, which was also lower than the sum of the 6.9 percent GDP growth and 1.6 percent for the Consumer Price Index.
China was used to setting its annual target of M2 growth rate as a sum of the expected GDP growth rate, the inflation gauge of CPI, and an adjustment factor usually at 3 percent, according to Wang.
The reason was explained as a result of financial deleveraging by the monetary authority, but this scenario "is very rare in history" according to experts. It is the first year in 2018 that the government has abandoned M2 target as a monitor of the real economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund issued the latest version of Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific on Tuesday, and forecast "China"s growth to moderate to 6.6 percent in 2018 as financial, housing, and fiscal tightening measures take effect".
The fund warned that there are risks and challenges ahead, including from a tightening of global financial conditions and a shift toward inward-looking policies.
"Strengthening monetary policy frameworks and central bank communications can bolster the importance of expectations, and exchange rate flexibility can help to insulate economies from imported inflation," it said. "Policymakers should focus on keeping debt under control."
翻譯：
靈活性對政策收益至關重要
謹慎的貨幣政策「可以幫助中國應對經濟風險」
經濟學家表示，中國決策者需要在制定貨幣政策時更加警惕和果斷，並保持靈活性，以應對未來幾個月可能阻礙經濟增長的不確定因素。
來自國際貨幣基金組織的一隊經濟學家周四發表言論，從全球範圍來看，一些大型發達經濟體的貨幣政策正常化，或全球金融危機後量化寬鬆的退出，可能成為中國的主要不確定因素之一，需要高度謹慎的政策制定，旨在建立緩衝區和增強抵禦能力。
「但從歷史上看，市場動蕩經常伴隨著貨幣正常化，這需要謹慎審慎。」IMF的中國高級代表Alfred Schipke說。
他表示，近期美國債券收益率和美元走勢凸顯了這種不確定性，「考慮到家庭和公司的高槓桿作用，亞洲可能受到重大影響」。
一些經濟學家表示，廣義貨幣供應或M2的急劇放緩以及信貸增長可能會損害宏觀經濟，但仍處於滯後期。
中國人民大學國際貨幣研究所學術委員會委員王永利呼籲對可能出現的經濟減弱的「警惕性」，例如多項財政緊縮政策同時生效，這可能會放大效應並抑制經濟增長動力。
「貨幣政策應該是靈活的，並且還需要有一個應對計劃來應對可能的經濟降溫，」他說。
3月份中國的M2增速放緩至8.2％，低於2月份的8.8％和1月份的8.6％。根據中國央行中國人民銀行的數據，以人民幣計價的新貸款在第一季度的擴張速度也較去年有所放緩。
2017年，中國廣義貨幣供應量增長率僅為8.2％，遠低於12％的目標，也低於6.9％的GDP增長率和1.6％的消費者價格指數之和。
根據王永利的說法，中國習慣於將其M2年增長率目標設定為預期GDP增長率，CPI通脹指標以及通常為3％的調整因子的總和。
這是由於貨幣當局的金融去槓桿化導致的結果，但這種情況「在歷史上是非常罕見的」，據專家介紹。這是2018年的第一年，政府放棄M2目標作為實際經濟增長的監測。
國際貨幣基金組織周二發布了最新版本的亞太地區經濟展望報告，並預測「隨著金融，住房和財政緊縮措施的實施，2018年中國的經濟增長將溫和到6.6％」。
該基金警告說，未來面臨風險和挑戰，包括全球金融形勢趨緊以及向內向政策轉變。
它說：「加強貨幣政策框架和中央銀行溝通可以加強預期的重要性，而匯率靈活性可以幫助隔離經濟體免受輸入性通貨膨脹的影響。」 「決策者應該集中控制債務。」
TIPS：
IMF：國際貨幣基金組織，是根據1944年7月在布雷頓森林會議簽訂的《國際貨幣基金協定》，於1945年12月27日在華盛頓成立的。與世界銀行同時成立、並列為世界兩大金融機構之一，其職責是監察貨幣匯率和各國貿易情況，提供技術和資金協助，確保全球金融制度運作正常。其總部設在華盛頓。我們常聽到的「特別提款權」就是該組織於1969年創設的。
M2：廣義貨幣（Broad money）是一個經濟學概念。M0、M1、M2、M3都是用來反映貨幣供應量的重要指標。M1反映著經濟中的現實購買力；M2同時反映現實和潛在購買力。若M1增速較快，則消費和終端市場活躍；若M2增速較快，則投資和中間市場活躍。中央銀行和各商業銀行可以據此判定貨幣政策。M1過高M2過低，表明需求強勁、投資不足，存在通貨膨脹風險；M2過高而M1過低，表明投資過熱、需求不旺，存在資產泡沫風險。
GDP:(國內生產總值):是指一個國家(或地區)所有常住單位在一定時期內生產的全部最終產品和服務價值的總和，常被認為是衡量國家(或地區)經濟狀況的指標。
GPI：由於GDP有時不能真實反映一個國家的經濟發展狀況，為此，西方經濟學家曾提出了一個新的衡量指標GPI「真實發展指數」，用以評估一個國家經濟發展的真實寫照 。
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