選秀還是交易狀元簽？美國球迷熱議狀元秀最低標準
Which player"s career is worst you would accept for #1 pick in draft?
哪位球員的生涯表現是你能接受的狀元秀下限？
The title probably isn"t phrased well so I"ll try to explain it.
標題可能有點拗口，我來解釋一下。
In hypotetical situation in which you have 1st pick in this (or some other) year"s draft and you can trade that pick for current/former player that is guaranteed to have exact the same career as he really did (it brings you only their performances, you can"t say "Horry because that would guarantee me 7 rings").
假設你手握著今年（或者某年）的狀元簽，並且你可以用這個狀元簽交易來一個現役/當年的球員，並且這個球員的生涯表現保證和（歷史上的）實際情況完全相符（僅限於他們自己的場上表現，所以你不能說「我要交易來霍里，這樣我保證能拿到7個冠軍」）。
Which player had the worst career you would accept as safe and not being disappointed with him instead of gambling with selecting some player who can turn superstar/good/average/disappointment/complete bust?
哪位球員的生涯表現是你能接受的下限，讓你覺得保險，不會對他失望，寧願用狀元簽把他交易來，也不會冒險去選一位未來可能成為超級巨星/優秀球員/中等水平/令人失望/或者徹底水掉的球員？
[–]Hawks Tankwagoncallmerevan 604 指標 10小時前
Off the wall here but I"d at least like Elton Brand, 20/10/2/2 is pretty damn solid and he"s got a couple All Stars and All NBA teams.
可能這麼說有點離譜，但我的底線是埃爾頓-布蘭德。他生涯場均20+10+2+2，非常不錯了，而且多次入選了全明星和最佳陣容。
[–][PHI] Allen IversonEuroStep0[S] 97 指標 9小時前
yeah, that"s pretty good answer
it would obviously depend year-to-year, in 2003 i would definitely want someone better than in 2013 for example even without knowing LeBron will turn out to be top 3 players of all time
樓上說得不賴。
要回答這個問題，顯然要看你手握的是哪一年的狀元簽。比方說如果是2003年的狀元簽，那我的要求肯定比2013年更高，就算我不知道詹姆斯未來會成為歷史前三的巨星也一樣。
[–]Rockets Bandwagonlivefreeordont 63 指標 6小時前
He was just a tier below the Amares, Duncans, Garnetts, and Dirks off the 2000s
布蘭德在世紀初只比小斯、鄧肯、加內特和諾維茨基低一檔啊。
[–]uleelee 37 指標 6小時前
id say he was on the same tier when he was dropping like 25 a game on the clippers lol.
我覺得布蘭德在快船場均大概25分的時候，他和你說的那幾個人應該是同一檔的。
[–]Rockets Bandwagonlivefreeordont 75 指標 6小時前
That was a single year lol. Just like I wouldn』t say IT was ever on the same tier as Steph or CP3
但也僅限那一年而已啊，笑了，就像我永遠不會說小托馬斯是和保羅庫里一檔的。
[–]SimonGallupsBass 46 指標 5小時前
He averaged 20/10 for 7 straight seasons before an Achilles jacked his career.
他在跟腱受傷導致生涯滑坡之前，可是連續7個賽季場均20+10啊。
[–]Rockets Bandwagonlivefreeordont 47 指標 5小時前
Yup. Just a tier below like I said
對啊，所以我說只差了一檔。
[–][PHI] Allen IversonEuroStep0[S] 323 指標 10小時前
my absolutely lowest would be something like Jeff Hornacek
no major injuries, about 17ppg on good efficiency with 5-5.5apg in prime, very reliable shooter
我能接受的最低下限大概是傑夫-霍納塞克吧。
沒遭遇過重大傷病，巔峰期場均高效拿到大概17分，還有5到5.5個助攻，投射很可靠。
[–]sickvisorbro 112 指標 9小時前
You can have the coach version of him :).
教練形態的霍納塞克了解一下:)
[–]UFOVeeg 47 指標 6小時前
He would be called a HUGE bust by all his fans though for his entire career
但是如果你真拿狀元簽換了他，那在球迷眼裡，他的整個生涯算得上是水透了啊。
[–][WAS] Gilbert Arenaselipark13 71 指標 6小時前*
Do people call Andrew Bogut a bust? Because he was a #1 pick who similarly peaked as a good not great player who could serve as a key piece on a contender.
有人覺得安德魯-博古特是水貨嗎？他是狀元秀，跟霍納塞克相似的是，他也是在巔峰期表現不錯，但稱不上很出色，在爭冠球隊里也能發揮關鍵作用。
[–]uleelee 61 指標 6小時前
bogut was a beast before that injury where he landed on his arm and had 3 different injuries on his arm
博古特在受傷之前堪稱猛獸，他那次受傷時手先著地，手臂同時遭受了三種傷病。
[–]CelticsMrMojo18 95 指標 10小時前
I think it is realistic to expect atleast a couple years at an Allstar level from a guy taken first overall.
Elton Brand (who actually was picked 1st) is a good example imo.
Jermaine O"Neal maybe aswell, though he was on his way to a Hall of Fame career if not for injuries.
Maybe Kyle Lowry aswell?
我覺得吧，期待一個狀元至少連續幾年打出全明星水平應該算是一個實際的想法。
在我看來埃爾頓-布蘭德（實際上他確實是狀元秀）是個好例子。
傑梅因-奧尼爾可能也算是，雖然他如果不受傷的話是能夠打出名人堂級別的生涯的。
可能凱爾-洛瑞也算是？
[–][GSW] Stephen CurryDraper-11 382 指標 10小時前
Paul Millsap?
保羅-米爾薩普了解一下？
[–]Raptorsraptorsfan97 146 指標 10小時前
He"s the exact player who came to my mind too lol.
我第一個想到的也是他哈哈。
[–]Trail Blazers_Quetzalcoatlus_ 64 指標 9小時前
Maybe if he played like he did in Atlanta, but he wasn"t even a starting caliber player until his 4th year in the league. And he wasn"t a capable shooter until his 8th year (first year in Atlanta).
如果按他在老鷹的表現來說，那還有可能。但他直到生涯第四年才成為一名合格的首發，到第八年（在老鷹的第一年）才有了靠譜的投籃。
[–]Knicksalexyxray 58 指標 7小時前
As much as I love Paul Trillsap his career is really overrated by stats junkies like us on r/nba, probably from all the praise he gets from Kevin Arnovitz and Zach Lowe.
雖然我很喜歡米爾薩普，但是他的生涯真的被一些像本論壇網友這樣看重數據的人高估了。可能源於Kevin Arnovitz和Zach Lowe對他的讚譽吧。
To me his ideal role on a good team would be what Iguodala was in his first year with the Warriors, hit timely shots, defend the best player and do what the team needs, but is a 3rd option as a scorer at best.
在我看來，他在一支強隊的理想角色應該和伊格達拉在勇士的第一年很像。適時投進籃，防守對方的最佳球員，並且包攬隊伍的各種臟活累活。但在進攻端，他最多也就是第三選擇。
[–]Warriorsvelocirappa 160 指標 9小時前
Peja Stojakovic? A couple all star teams, number two guy on a contender for a couple years, briefly top 10 in the league.
佩賈-斯托亞科維奇呢？多次入選全明星，連續幾年在爭冠球隊中擔任二號角色，還曾經短暫進過聯盟前十。
[–]UnusualNegotiation 16 指標 6小時前
Bruh you show me a healthy Peja on a good team w/o Webber and I"ll show you an MVP candidate.
老哥，你給我一個健康的/在強隊效力的/沒有韋伯光環掩蓋的佩賈，我就還給你你個MVP候選人。
[–]KingsBagel_Technician 17 指標 4小時前
He was 4th in MVP voting in "04
國王球迷：佩賈在2004年MVP評選中排第四啊。
[–]Savarinoj 284 指標 9小時前
I think Mike Conley is a good candidate. Definitely an above average player when healthy that』s never received any accolades for his play.
我覺得邁克-康利可以一戰。他健康時無疑是一名高於平均水準的球員，但卻沒有因為自己的表現而贏得任何榮譽上嘉獎。
[–][OKC] Kevin Durantonewonyuan 71 指標 9小時前
Are we back on the "Mike Conley is underrated" train?
我們是不是又回到了「邁克-康利被低估了」的話題上了？
[–]Maverickshalfbrit08 128 指標 8小時前
He"s appropriately rated. He"s been considered one of the best non-allstar PGs for a while now.
對他的評價很中肯了。他被看作是最好的非全明星控衛之一已經很長時間了。
[–]Cavalierskevinnye 452 指標 10小時前
i actually really like this question. i know he"s kind of an enigma right now, but maybe the lowest i"d go is like a kevin love. multiple all-stars, had stretches where he could carry a team, and (particularly when younger) could be an incredible complement if you already have another stud on the roster - that would be a nice guarantee for a #1 overall.
我真的很喜歡這個問題。我的最低選擇會是凱文-樂福，雖然我知道他目前有點謎，但他多次入選全明星，曾經在一段時間內carry了全隊，並且（特別是在年輕的時候）在你已經具備建隊基石的情況下能夠成為極佳的補強——狀元秀能保證這些已經非常好了。
[–]CelticsAFuckingShark 378 指標 10小時前
I would way way rather have guaranteed multiple all-star than a gamble at #1 Love is too good for the lowest you would accept IMO.
多年全明星和賭狀元簽相比，我想都不用想肯定選前者。在我看來，把樂福作為狀元秀的最低標準已經有點太高了。
[–]Spursasa55 28 指標 9小時前
Who would you consider then?
那樓上會考慮誰呢？
[–]CelticsAFuckingShark 129 指標 9小時前
I listed JJ Reddick lower down this thread but I may have low balled it. The worst I"d accept is a good player - but not an all-star. A guy who has consistently been an above average starter and overall contributor.
我在本帖的其他樓有提到JJ-雷迪克，但這個標準可能有點太低了。我能接受的最低限度是一名出色的球員，但不是全明星。是一名持續打出高於平均水準的表現，並且整體上能為球隊持續做出貢獻的球員。
[–]RaptorsOthellothepoor 100 指標 9小時前
I think you"re selling it a bit low. For me personally, should be at least 1/2 All-Star, or All-NBA, or DPOY. I think a #1 SHOULD at least have one impact year. That"s jsut me though
我覺得你這個要求有點太低了。對我個人而言，至少會要求一到兩屆全明星，或者最佳陣容，或者最佳防守球員。我認為一名狀元秀至少要有一年的亮眼表現。不過這只是我個人觀點而已。
[–]Spurshonsuo73 84 指標 9小時前
Kemba. Fringe all star, gets buckets. Not gonna change a team but you could do a lot worse with a #1 pick
我選肯巴-沃克。在全明星的邊緣試探，能得分。實力不足以改變一支球隊的命運，但是用狀元簽來換他也遠遠說不上最差。
[–]JazzRGiss 113 指標 10小時前
Someone like Hayward.
爵士球迷：大概就海沃德這樣的吧。
[–]ZandrickEllison 69 指標 10小時前
Hayward is about as close to the line as I"d consider, but I"d still roll the dice on the #1 pick. Hayward wouldn"t be a "bust" at # 1 by any means, but he"d be a little underwhelming.
海沃德跟我想的標準差不多了，但我還是會用狀元簽賭一把。用狀元的標準衡量海沃德，無論如何都不能算是「水掉」，但他還是有那麼一點不夠給力。
[–]JazzTheNextMOH 111 指標 8小時前
I think people underestimate just how good Hayward was last year because he played in a small market. But I think if he"s able to come back at that level...he is a top 15 player in the league. Very well rounded. sobs
爵士球迷：我覺得由於海沃德在小球市打球，大家都低估了他去年的出色表現。但我覺得如果他能從傷病中完全恢復的話，會成為聯盟前15的球員。他是個非常全面的球員。(流下心酸的淚水)
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