The Economist 精讀筆記：Catching the bitcoin bug

Catching the bitcoinbug

A new study offers cold comfort forcrypto-investors

SINCE theheadydays of late 2017 and January of this year, crypto-currencies have gone into retreat.Bitcoin, the best-known example, is now worth just a third of its value at its peak (see chart).

But there remain plenty of true believers in digital currencies. They point out that prices are still well above where they were in 2016. And interest from institutional investors is still strong enough for analysts to want to make sense of the crypto-phenomenon.

bugn.[countable](informal) an infectious illness that is usually fairly mild 輕微的傳染病；小病◆a flu bug流感◆There"s a stomach bug going round(= people are catching it from eachother).現在流行一種腸胃傳染病。◆I picked up a bug in the office.我在辦公室被傳染了疾病

cryptoadj.hidden or secret隱藏的；秘密的

The ministeraccused his opponent of being a crypto-communist.部長指責其對手是地下共產黨員。

因為本文所講的與比特幣有關，所以這裡翻譯為「加密貨幣」

headyadj. tending to intoxicate or make giddy or elated眩暈；陶醉

◆heady wine醉人的酒

◆...in the heady days just after theirmarriage.…在他們婚後令人陶醉的日子裡。

感染比特幣病毒

一項新的研究沒有給加密貨幣的投資者帶來任何安慰

經過了2017年末和今年1月那段令人眩暈的日子之後，加密貨幣一路走跌。最知名的加密貨幣比特幣目前的價值只有最高位時的三分之一（見圖表）數字貨幣仍然有很多忠實信徒。他們指出，目前的價格仍遠高於2016年的水平。機構投資者仍然興趣十足，讓分析師想要弄明白這種加密貨幣現象。

The latest bank to take a shot isBarclays, which devotes a lot more of its 「Equity Gilt Study 2018」 to the impact of technological change on finance and the economy than it does to eitherequitiesorgilts. Its report describes crypto-technology as 「a solution still seeking a problem」.

Itidentifies four challenges in particular. The first is trust. In most countries, consumers and businesses have faith in the currencies issued by the government. The second issovereignty:the potential for tax avoidance and loss of financial control means that neither governments nor central banks will be keen to see private crypto-currencies take off.

◆巴克萊銀行（Barclays，LSE：BARC、NYSE：BCS）是英國第二大銀行，具有逾300年歷史，是英國最古老的銀行，其歷史可以追溯到1690年。巴克萊是全世界第一家擁有ATM的銀行，並於1966年發行了全英第一張信用卡，1987年發行了全英第一張借記卡。截止2013年，全球僱員達到139,900人。截至2012年總資產高達269.25億英鎊。總部位於英國，大樓位於美國紐約。每年，巴克萊銀行都會出具一份名為EquityGilt Study的報告，記錄該投行對全球金融和經濟領域重要議題的看法。

◆takea shotto attempt to dosomething successfully —often + at. 成功的嘗試I told father that I didn"t think I could do the work,but that I would be glad to take a shot at it.我對父親說我認為我幹不了那件事，但是我樂於試試。

（熟詞生義）equitiesn.shares in a company which do not pay a fixed amount ofinterest （公司的）普通股;

◆giltn. atype of investment offered by the government that pays a fixed rate of interestand is considered low-risk 金邊證券；績優證券Gilts are not a risk-free investment, of course, because offluctuations in their market value.由於市值的波動，金邊債券當然也不是無風險的投資。Then the BoE bought somegilts, and the yield came all the way down to 3.27 per cent.隨後，英國央行買進了一些國債，收益率一路跌至3.27%。

最近做出嘗試的是巴克萊銀行（Barclays）。在其《2018年股票債券投資研究報告》（Equity Gilt Study 2018）中，它將技術變革對金融和經濟的影響作為論述重點，比對股票或債券都著墨更多。這份報告將加密技術描述為「一個還在找問題的解決方案」。

報告特別指出了加密貨幣面臨的四項挑戰。首先是信任。在大多數國家，消費者和企業都信任政府發行的貨幣。其次是控制權：私人加密貨幣可能導致無需納稅和金融控制的喪失，這意味著政府和央行都不大願意看到它們取得成功。

A third challenge is privacy. Although they can be usedpseudonymously, crypto-currencies are less reliably anonymous than cash since theblockchainthat lies behind them records all transactions. If a pseudonym iscracked, the user』s purchase history is revealed. A fourth relates to the ability to undo a transaction in cases of error or fraud—blockchain transactions are hard toreverse.

On top ofall these problems is the fact that existing alternatives seem to work perfectly well. It is easy to make payments and transfer money in an instant.

◆pseudonymousadj bearing or identified by an assumed (oftenpen) name 匿名的，使用筆名的; (pseudonymouslyadverbpseudonymousnessnoun)Anonymous and pseudonymous literature 匿名和使用筆名的文學 The writingsof Mark Twain are pseudonymous. 馬克·吐溫的作品是用假名寫的。

◆blockchain區塊鏈（Blockchain）是由節點參與的分散式系統，它的特點是不可更改，不可偽造，也可以將其理解為賬簿系統(ledger)。它是比特幣的一個重要概念，完整比特幣區塊鏈的副本，記錄了其代幣（token）的每一筆交易。通過這些信息，我們可以找到每一個地址，在歷史上任何一點所擁有的價值.

◆crackv.tofind the solution to a problem, etc; to find the way to do sth difficult 找到解決（難題等的）方法◆to crack the enemy"s code破譯敵人的密碼◆( informal) After a year in this job I think I"ve got it cracked!幹了一年後，我覺得我已知道怎樣做好這項工作了

◆reversev.reversesth to change sth completely so thatit is the opposite of what it was before 顛倒；徹底轉變；使完全相反◆toreverse a procedure/process/trend徹底改變程序╱過程╱趨勢◆The government has failed to reversethe economic decline.政府未能扭轉經濟滑坡的趨勢。 ◆It is sometimes possible to arrestor reverse the disease.有時可以阻止病情發展或使病情徹底好轉.

◆on top ofinaddition to sth 除…之外In addition tothese arrangements, extra ambulances will be on duty until midnight.除了這些安排以外，另增救護車值班至午夜。There is, in addition, one further point tomake.此外，還有一點要說。

第三個挑戰是隱私。雖然加密貨幣可以匿名使用，但其隱匿性不如現金，因為支持加密貨幣的區塊鏈會記錄所有交易。一旦匿名被破解，用戶的購買歷史就無從隱藏。第四個挑戰是在發生錯誤或欺詐的情況下撤消交易的能力——區塊鏈交易難以逆轉。

除了所有這些問題之外，現有的替代方案看起來運作得非常好，人們可以輕鬆地即時付款及轉賬。

So what is the appeal of digital newcomers? Private crypto-currencies can be attractive in societies where trust is low, or where governments are unwilling or unable to provide reliablemeansof exchange—in wartime or during periods ofsovereigndefault, for example. Barclays also suggests that in countries where opportunities to investare limited, 「crypto-currencies may be one of the few ways to diversify savings out of domestic assets.」

None of these conditions applies in rich countries. But they hold in someemerging markets. There could also be demand in the developed world from criminals (although they now strongly favour cash). By making generous assumptions about the size of these low-trust and criminal markets, Barclays comes up with a maximum total value for all crypto-currencies of $660bn-780bn.That isroughlywhere they were priced at the beginning of 2018.

Maximum value is not the same as fair value. Surveys indicate that most people who buybitcoin are doing so as an investment. Just 8% of Americans who hold bitcoin do so for purchases or payments. That suggests the main motive for buying crypto-currencies isspeculation,which also explains their spectacular recentrise and fall,as withso manybubblesbefore them, fromtulipstodotcomstocks.

◆meansn.means(ofsth/of doing sth) an action, anobject or a system by which a result is achieved; a way of achieving or doingsth 方式；方法；途徑Television is an effective means ofcommunication.電視是一種有效的傳播途徑。◆Isthere any means of contacting him?有沒有什麼辦法和他取得聯繫？◆Haveyou any meansof identification?你有沒有任何身份證件？

◆sovereign default主權違約是指一國政府無法按時對其向外擔保借來的債務還本付息的情況。如債務重組；當期本金、利息未如期如數支付；債務總額超過國際貨幣基金組織貸款協議所規定的的最高上限。當一國政府充當該國主權債券的債務人時，由於政府自身在司法體系中的角色使其很難出現在他國的破產法庭上，因此政府可能會在這種缺少法律約束的情況下宣布其主權債務違約。

◆emerging marketsAn emerging market is a country that has somecharacteristics of a developed market, but does not meet standards to be adeveloped market 新興市場

◆although they now strongly favour cash雖然他們現在強烈偏好現金。本句中的favour表示更喜愛，更偏愛，在寫作中可以替換preferfavour sth |favour(sb) doing sthMany countries favour a presidential systemof government.很多國家選擇總統制政府

◆Roughlyadv. approximately but not exactly 大約；大致；差不多◆Sales are up by roughly 10%.銷售額上升了大約 10%。◆We live roughly halfway between here andthe coast.我們住的地方大致在這裡和海濱中間。◆They all left at roughly the same time.他們都是大約同一時間離開的

◆speculationn.[uncountable ,countable ]speculation(in sth) theactivity of buying and selling goods or shares in a company in the hope ofmaking a profit, but with the risk of losing money 投機買賣；炒股Oil speculation proved a natural arena for his skills.在石油業中進行投機活動對他來說遊刃有餘。

◆as with和….一樣

Butas withother charitable bodies, these figures mask the true picture

但和其他慈善機構一樣，這些數字掩蓋了實情

。

As withmany technological revolutions, you are unlikely to be aware of it

就像諸多的技術革命一樣，你可能不太會注意到它。

◆fromtulipstodotcomstockstulips是鬱金香的意思，但在這句話中特指17世紀荷蘭的鬱金香泡沫，而doctom stocks指的網路股票。Chinese initial publicofferings,like 17th-century Dutch tulips ordotcom stocksat the start of this decade, are the stuff of bubbles.

如同17世紀時荷蘭的鬱金香、或本世紀初的網路股一樣，中國的首次公開發行（IPO）市場充滿了泡沫。

那麼數字貨幣這一後起之秀有什麼吸引人之處呢？在信任度較低的社會，或者在政府不願或無法提供可靠交易手段的情況下（例如在戰時或主權違約期間），私人加密貨幣可能頗具吸引力。巴克萊銀行還表示，在投資機會有限的國家，「加密貨幣可能是少數幾種讓儲蓄不會集中在國內資產上的方式之一」。

這些情況在富裕國家都不適用，但在一些新興市場還是存在的。發達國家的犯罪分子也可能對加密貨幣有需求（雖然他們現在強烈偏好現金）。通過對這些低信任度和犯罪市場的規模作出寬鬆的假設，巴克萊銀行得出的結論是所有加密貨幣的最大總值為6600億至7800億美元。這也大致與加密貨幣在2018年初的定價水平相當。

但最大價值與公允價值不同。調查顯示，大多數人購買比特幣是為了投資，只有8％持有比特幣的美國人用比特幣買東西或付款。也就是說購買加密貨幣的主要動機是投機，這也解釋了加密貨幣價格近期大幅漲跌的情況，和之前從鬱金香到互聯網公司股票泡沫等諸多現象如出一轍。

Speculative bubbles are hard to model—how to find a rational way to assess irrationality?But Barclays uses the ingeniousparallelof an infectious disease. A bubble starts with a small number of asset owners (the 「infected」). New buyers are drawn in (or catch the bug) because they witness price increases and fear they will miss out. A large share of the population is immune and will neversuccumb.

Buyers use a combination of the current price and anextrapolationof the recent increase in price to estimate their expected target value. The faster the price rises, the wilder investors』 hopes and the more the infection spreads. Eventually the market runs out of potential participants and the price rise slows. Once it starts to fall, holders lose hope of big gains and start to sell. Theepidemicdies out.

◆parallel1.[countable,uncountable ]aperson, a situation, an event, etc. that is very similar to another, especiallyone in a different place or time （尤指不同地點或時間的）極其相似的人（或情況、事件等）SYNequivalent◆These ideas have parallels in Freud"s thought too.這些觀念與弗洛伊德思想中的某些觀點非常相似。◆This is an achievement without parallel in modern times.這一成就在當代無人可及。◆This tradition has no parallel in our culture.這種傳統在我們的文化中是沒有的。2.[countable,usually plural ]similarfeatures 相似特徵；相似特點◆There are interesting parallels between the 1960s and the late 1990s.*20世紀 60 年代和 90 年代後期有些頗有意思的相似之處。◆It is possible to draw a parallel between(= find similar features in) their experience and ours.在他們的經歷和我們的經歷之間找到相似點是可能的。

◆succumb|s??k?m|v.to not be able tofight an attack, an illness, a temptation, etc. 屈服；屈從；抵擋不住（攻擊、疾病、誘惑等）◆Thetown succumbed after a short siege.該城被圍困不久即告失守。Succumbto sth◆Hiscareer was cut short when he succumbed to cancer.他的事業隨著他死於癌症而中斷。◆Hefinally succumbed to Lucy"s charms and agreed to her request.他最終為露西的魅力所傾倒，答應了她的請求。

◆extrapolationn.推斷，推論.Extrapolationfrom our experiencetothe future.

從我們的經驗中對未來做出推斷。

There is also the question of whetherextrapolationof results between species is valid.

還有一個問題是，推論的結果在兩個物種之間是否有效。

◆epidemica sudden rapidincrease in how often sth bad happens （壞事迅速的）泛濫，蔓延A fluepidemicis sweeping throughMoscow.

一場流感正席捲莫斯科。

Drug experts say it could spell the end of the crackepidemic.

禁毒專家說它可能會結束強效可卡因吸食泛濫的局面。

投機泡沫很難模型化——非理性行為要怎麼用理性的方法來評估呢？但巴克萊巧妙地運用了傳染病來類比。泡沫始於少數資產所有者（「受感染者」）。新買家被吸引過來（受到感染），因為他們見證了價格上漲，擔心錯失良機。很大一部分人口是免疫的，永遠不會受影響。

買家結合當前價格和對近期價格上漲的推斷來估算預期目標價值。價格上漲越快，投資者的願望就越膨脹，感染蔓延越廣。最終市場再沒有潛在參與者，價格上漲放緩。價格一旦開始下跌，持有者就會失去獲得巨大收益的希望而開始拋售。疫情平息。

The Barclays model fits the history of the bitcoin price pretty well. And it suggests that the long-term outlook for the value of crypto-currencies isbleak. After all, plenty of people will have bought in the past few months, when enthusiasm was at its height. Some will have taken extra risk to buy the currency, viaspread bettingor other types of gambling. Instead of the riches they expected, they will be nursing losses. Some will be keen to sell their holdings. But new buyers will be harder to tempt now that crypto-currencies no longer look likea one-way bet.

All of this is good news. Perhaps the blockchain will turn out to be useful for other purposes—for example, recording property transactions. But it has been hard to think about such potential innovations when all the attention was focused on an ever-rising price. The crypto-fever has finally broken.

◆bleakadj.notencouraging or giving any reason to have hope不樂觀的；無望的；暗淡的◆ableak outlook/prospect暗淡的前景╱前途◆Thefuture looks bleak for the fishingindustry.漁業前景暗淡。◆Themedical prognosis was bleak.醫療預後不良。

◆spread betting點差交易（Spread betting）就是根據點差進行買賣的一種投資方式。

◆one-way bet單項投注，簡單形容就是買死單邊。在這裡綜合上下文譯為一路上升

巴克萊的模型與比特幣價格的歷史非常吻合。而它也顯示了加密貨幣價值的長期前景黯淡。畢竟，在過去的幾個月市場情緒高漲時，很多人都買入了加密貨幣。有些人還通過點差交易或其他類型的賭博方式冒更大風險買入。他們最後非但不會如預期般發財，還會蒙受損失。有些人會急於出售手中持有的加密貨幣，但既然行情看起來不再一路上漲，也就更難誘惑新買家入手了。

這都是好消息。也許區塊鏈會在其他方面大顯身手，例如記錄產權交易。而此前所有注意力都集中在不斷上漲的價格上時，很難去構想這樣的潛在創新。加密貨幣熱終於退燒了。

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