ELO數據顯示，勒布朗的成功大部分時間是在球隊不被看好的情況下取得

運動 06-04

LeBron and Magic were far better underdogs than Jordan, Kobe, and Duncan — ELO says so

ELO數據顯示：比起喬丹、科比和鄧肯帶領的球隊，詹姆斯和魔術師的球隊在總決賽不被看好的情況下，表現更好

Here』s the data:

詳細數據點擊一下鏈接>>(為照顧到翻不了牆的JRs，譯者截取了其中喬丹、詹姆斯和科比的ELO數據)

喬丹

詹姆斯

科比

Here』s the gist: I grew up a fan of Jordan, but I』m a bigger fan of LeBron now. Since there』s no good way to compare players of different eras, ELO at least allows us to look at the relative competition during eras.

這裡是要點：雖然我從小是喬丹的球迷，但是我現在更粉詹姆斯。由於現在還沒有好的方法去比較不同時期的球員，ELO等級分制度這種方法至少讓我們可以看到在這些時代中他們各自競爭對手的含金量。

[譯註1]

ELO changes everything.

From a competition standpoint, the Jordan-LeBron debate could be simplified to 「Jordan never beat a 70-win team; he was the 70-win team." But ELO reveals just how staggering they each played when they had stronger or weaker teams in the postseason. One did far better than the other.

ELO等級分制度改變了一切。

從競爭對手的角度看，喬丹和詹姆斯孰優孰劣可以被簡化為「喬丹從沒擊敗一支70勝的球隊，但喬丹自己就是70勝球隊的一員。」但是ELO數據揭露了兩人在季後賽遇見不同級別對手時水平巨大差異。在這種對比條件下，詹姆斯要比喬丹表現好得多。

For perspective, I』ve added ELO data from Magic, Kobe, Duncan, West, Bird, and legendary big men.

TL;DR – LeBron has succeeded as primarily an underdog in his era — much like Magic. Jordan』s Bulls are today』s Warriors: they』re supposed to win.

** Edited for spelling.

為了讓大家更清楚地看到區別，（除了喬丹和詹姆斯）我還添加了魔術師、科比、鄧肯、傑里-韋斯特、伯德以及幾位傳奇大個子球員（拉塞爾、張伯倫、賈巴爾和奧尼爾）的ELO數據。

我總結一下：勒布朗的成功是在球隊大多數時間都不被看好的情況下取得的，這非常像魔術師。而有喬丹的公牛隊就是如今的勇士，他們本身就是奪冠最大熱門。

[譯註1]ELO等級分制度是指由匈牙利裔美國物理學家Elo創建的一個衡量各類對弈活動水平的評價方法，是當今對弈水平評估的公認的權威方法。被廣泛用於國際象棋、圍棋、足球、籃球等運動。網路遊戲英雄聯盟、魔獸世界內的競技對戰系統也採用此分級制度。

[–]Heatwormhole222 2406 指標 1 天前

Larry Bird never won a series without home court advantage.

熱火球迷：在凱爾特人沒有主場優勢時，伯德從來沒有贏下一輪系列賽。

[–]RaptorsGOAT555 1107 指標 1 天前

Damn that Boston garden crowd really is insane

猛龍球迷：波士頓花園球館的觀眾是真特么瘋狂。

[–]BubbaTee 660 指標 1 天前*

Not just the crowd, the Celtics used the actual stadium to their advantage by turning up the heat in the visitor"s locker room.

不僅僅是觀眾，那會兒的凱爾特人會把對手更衣室的暖氣調高，把【主場】優勢利用到極致。

Auerbach always searched for the edge. So he turned up the heat in the opponent"s dressing room in the old Boston Garden or closed down the showers. Anything to annoy and distract the opposition.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2006-10-29/sports/0610290324_1_nba-history-boston-celtics-kevin-mchale

奧爾巴赫一直在想盡辦法獲取優勢。所以在老花園球館，他會調高對手更衣室的暖氣，或者讓他們洗不了澡，這些都是為了惹惱對手或是讓他們分心。

It got to the point where the Lakers refused to drink water/gatorade provided by the Garden/Celtics.

這後來惡劣到了什麼地步呢？湖人球員拒絕飲用凱爾特人主場提供的水或佳得樂。

When the Lakers had traveled to Boston earlier in the season, Riley spotted a container of water on a courtside table during a shootaround. "The Celtics left it there for us," said Dave Wohl, a Lakers assistant. "To drink." Riley ordered that the container be emptied, scrubbed out, and refilled. "Who knows," he said, "what the Celtics might have put in there to make us sick."

https://books.google.com/books?id=UR726FSxsy0C&pg=PT171&lpg=PT171#v=onepage&q&f=false

賽季初，當湖人去凱爾特人主場比賽時，主教練萊利在湖人進行投籃訓練時，發現有一箱水在球場邊的桌子上。助教戴夫-沃爾說道：「這是凱爾特人留給我們的。留給我們喝的。」於是萊利讓人把水倒了，然後好好擦乾淨，再重新接滿水。他說：「誰知道呢，保不齊凱爾特人留的水裡有啥玩意。」

[–]76ersDrewFlan 70 指標 1 天前

OP worded that weird - he has lost series at home, just never won without home court advantage (partially because they were usually a high seed and therefore didn"t have the opportunity).

1980 ECF vs Sixers,

1982 ECF vs Sixers

1985 Finals vs Lakers

1988 ECF vs Pistons

1991 EC Semifinals vs Pistons

層主的話很奇怪，凱爾特人在主場輸掉了系列賽，只是從沒贏過沒有主場優勢的系列賽。（部分原因是凱爾特人通常排名很高，因此他們沒有那機會證明一下自己）。

1980年，東部決賽輸給76人，

1982年，東部決賽輸給76人，

1985年，總決賽輸給湖人，

1988年，東部決賽輸給活塞，

1991年，東部半決賽輸給活塞。

[–]NBANBAYouTube 578 指標 1 天前

Jordan』s Bulls are today』s Warriors: they』re supposed to win.

For those more familiar with the intricacies of the 90s Bulls, how much do you think theyd suffer without him? Lets say you take Jordan off the 72 win Bulls and compare the drop in performance to say, Curry of the 73 win Warriors

樓主說，有喬丹的公牛隊就是如今的勇士，他們就是奪冠的最大熱門呢。

對於那些更加熟悉九十年代公牛隊紛繁複雜的事的人來說，你覺得要是沒有喬丹，公牛隊的損失有多大？如果把喬丹從72勝的公牛隊拿走，和把庫里從73勝的勇士隊拿走，哪支球隊的表現下跌得更嚴重？

[–]MagicByrie_Swirving 830 指標 1 天前

Well that』s easy enough. They went from 57 to 55 wins when Jordan retired with mostly the same team. They went from 47 -> 72 when he can back but they also added Rodman and two expansion teams were added in 『96.

魔術球迷：這太簡單了。喬丹第一次退役後，公牛用幾乎一樣的陣容取得了55勝的戰績，比上個賽季少贏了2場。喬丹復出後，雖然公牛的戰績從原來的47勝漲到72勝，但是那個賽季他們也迎來了羅德曼，而且聯盟還擴充了兩支球隊。

[–]aTurkeyonaCathedral 436 指標 1 天前

Or you know, they went from winning it all to going out in the 2nd round. That 94 Bulls roster is also deeper than the year before and we all know a deep roster is more valuable in the regular season than in the playoffs. (60 win Hawks or this years Toronto)

或者你可以這麼理解啊，（喬丹第一次退役後）公牛從總冠軍變成第二輪被淘汰。94年公牛的陣容深度比前一年更好，我們也都知道，比起季後賽，陣容深度對於常規賽的價值更大。（就像60勝的老鷹或者這賽季的猛龍）

[–]MagicByrie_Swirving 75 指標 1 天前

Well the next season with that deep roster and MJ returning they went out in the second again. I don』t want to hear about rust when he was putting up 32/7/5/2/1 in those playoffs. Those are better numbers than what he put up in the 『96 playoffs.

魔術球迷： 94-95賽季，喬丹復出後帶領著陣容深厚的公牛，同樣第二輪出局。我不想聽到什麼喬丹好久時間沒打球生鏽了的言論，當時季後賽喬丹交出了32+7+5+2+1的數據。這數據可是比95-95賽季季後賽的數據更好哦。

[–]otis_reading 22 指標 1 天前

Good lord, you"re a stats moron. Go back and watch the games if you don"t think he struggled from the layoff when he came back.

就知道盯著數據看的白痴。如果你不覺得他當時正處於復出的掙扎期的話，回去好好看看比賽。

[–]cavsfan212 188 指標 1 天前

And if Lebron wasn"t playing on this Cavs team we would be debating between Doncic and Ayton right now

騎士球迷：如果詹姆斯不在這支騎士隊，那麼我們現在應該在爭論騎士是應該選東契奇還是艾頓了。

[–][MIL] Khris Middletonchessgod1 32 指標 1 天前

They absolutely would be. Love is the only real starting caliber player then.

森林狼球迷：絕對是這樣。（詹姆斯不在的話）樂福是唯一夠格的先發。

[–]salmans13 84 指標 1 天前

Jordan lost to the Magic when he came back because they didn"t have rebounding.

Fans would like to say he wasn"t 100% but his numbers show he was about a basket away from his regular numbers.

Thise extra possessions were very important. That"s why they got Rodman. The rest is history.

1994-95賽季喬丹剛復出就輸給魔術是因為公牛籃板不行。

雖然球迷喜歡說喬丹還沒達到100%的狀態，但是比起常規數據，他當時的數據只少了大概兩分。

通過搶籃板增加進攻回合是很重要的，這就是為什麼他們後來要得到羅德曼。接下來發生的事大家都知道了。

A lot of the Jordan myth has to do with nostalgia and imagination.

People pretend they saw him play all 82 games (very few markets did) and a lot of the myth was built on reading newspaper stats the next day (becauae we has no idea what happeend on the west coast) and the 30 sec highlight reel during the sports section of the local news.

喬丹很多的傳說都是與人們的懷舊情緒和腦補有關。

人們假裝看了喬丹打的所有的82場比賽（很少有人做到），很多傳說都是基於第二天報紙上報道的數據（因為當時我們都不知道西海岸發生了什麼），電視里看的更多的是體育新聞中30秒的視頻錦集。

They just didn"t broadcast games back then. There weren"t multiple tan, espns etc. People will downvote this because it goes against the grain. People lie on social media these days...we old timers lie too in a similar way with our stories

當時NBA的直播真沒現在這麼多。當時沒有這麼多像ESPN之類的電視台，隨便滅我，因為我的說法與主流輿論相違背。現在的人們在社交媒體上撒謊，而我們老一輩人也同樣用相似的方式，講述我們的故事。（手動微笑）

[–]NBAnomad80 738 指標 1 天前

This is extremely thorough. Agree this is front page worthy OC and an excellent conversation starter.

樓主列的數據極其全面徹底。這是有價值的頭版原創內容，開啟了很不錯的話題討論。

[–]LakersBrandonlngram 641 指標 1 天前

lol idk why but this feels like something an OP"s burner account would say

哈哈，不知道為什麼，感覺樓上是樓主的小號。

[–]LakersMiopTop 221 指標 1 天前*

ELO"s based on who you beat though.

With LeBron"s East and Magic"s West were always a garbage conference. So their team"s ELO rating wouldn"t get much of a boost from making it to the Finals.

湖人球迷：不過ELO的數據分析是基於你擊敗了誰。

而詹姆斯時期的東部和魔術師時期的西部一直是比較羸弱的分區。所以他們球隊的ELO得分在進入總決賽之前不會提升太多。

Meanwhile Jordan, and even moreso Duncan and Kobe had a tough conference, so it makes sense their team ELO would rise significantly before the Finals rolled around.

Hell, it"s right there in the spreadsheet.

Look at the difference between Kobe"s teams first round ELO compared to their Finals ELO. It improved every year except 2000, and in 5/7 Finals, it improved significantly.

與此同時，喬丹，甚至更進一層的鄧肯和科比所處的分區競爭激烈，所以在打入總決賽之前，他們球隊的ELO得分會顯著提升。

數據就在鏈接的表格里。

看看科比的球隊第一輪ELO得分和總決賽ELO得分的不同。除了2000年，總決賽的ELO得分比第一輪的都提升了。而且在7次總決賽中的5次，這個數據提升顯著。

On top of that, since most of LeBron"s teams haven"t been all that great in the regular season, they have a mediocre ELO going into the playoffs, which, again, can"t improve that much considering the level of competition.

Look at 2016 for example. The Cavs had a 1663 ELO in the first round (1500 is average), and it only rose to 1723 by the time the Finals rolled around.

最重要的是，由於詹姆斯的球隊在常規賽中大部分時間內表現都不是特別出色，所以他們打進季後賽時的ELO得分比較平庸，而且考慮到他在東區的競爭對手，這個數字到了季後賽也不會提升特別多。

比如2016年吧，騎士第一輪的ELO是1663，1500是聯盟平均水平，而到了總決賽這個數字上升到了1723。

Meanwhile the 66-win "09 Cavs had a 1765 ELO rating in the ECF against Orlando.

Is anyone seriously going to say that the "16 Cavs weren"t better than the "09 Cavs ?

Good OC, great presentation but I"m not sure the results are that relevant.

與此同時，2009年66勝的騎士在東決對陣魔術時的ELO得分是1765.

難道真有人覺得2009年的騎士比2016年的騎士還強？

樓主的原創內容很不錯，展示地也比較全面，但我不知道你得出的結論是不是跟你所列出的數據和論據有關。

EDIT : Another example, the "13 Spurs had a 1601 ELO going into the playoffs, to the Heat"s 1757. But simply by virtue of facing tougher teams in the first 3 rounds, the Spurs" ELO rose to 1711 while the Heat"s was 1755.

編輯：另一個例子是，12-13賽季的馬刺隊進入季後賽時的ELO得分為1601，但是因為在前三輪中面對的對手更加強硬，進入總決賽時馬刺隊的ELO提升到1711，而他的總決賽對手熱火ELO得分為1755.

E2 : And of course there"s the issue of using team ratings only. Based on this, "03 Duncan beating prime Kobe + prime Shaq with nothing but old-as-dirt Robinson and baby Parker is not impressive at all because the Spurs were favourites. But prime Kobe + prime Shaq beating the Spurs the following year (Duncan + baby Many and sophomore Parker) is very impressive because they were underdogs.

編輯2：當然，這是使用團隊評分才出現的問題。按照ELO評分這個邏輯，02-03賽季鄧肯擊敗當打之年的OK組合，身邊除了老邁的羅賓遜和新秀帕克，沒有其他人。但是那輪系列賽完全沒給人留下印象，是因為當時馬刺更被人看好。而03-04賽季當打之年的OK組合擊敗馬刺（鄧肯+新秀馬努+二年級的帕克）時，這輪系列賽給人印象深刻，是因為馬刺不被看好。

E3 : Calling Kobe"s 2006-2008 playoff runs "ghastly" is a joke. If 2008 is "ghastly" because he lost to a team with a higher ELO, then 2006 and 2007 aren"t because he lost to a team with a far higher ELO. If 2007 and 2006 are "ghastly" because he lost in the 1st round, then 2008 isn"t because he made the Finals. And again, the Celtics had a 1725 ELO going into the playoffs, the Lakers had a 1682. But simply because Kobe was in the West and had to beat 3 consecutive really tough opponents, his team"s ELO rating rose significantly and thus he "lost as a favourite".

編輯3：說科比2006-2008這幾年季後賽之旅是「慘淡的」的人就是個笑話。如果說07-08賽季是「慘淡的」，給的理由是湖人ELO比對手的更高卻輸系列賽，那前兩個賽季湖人的ELO得分都比對手低。如果說05-06和06-07賽季是「慘淡的」，給的理由是止步首輪，那07-08賽季他們可是打入總決賽啊。而且又是那樣，進入季後賽時，凱爾特人ELO得分1725，而湖人是1682分。只是因為科比的湖人在西部，並且他們一連擊敗了三支非常難對付的對手，於是在進入總決賽時他們的ELO得分顯著上升，他們輸掉了被看好的（ELO得分比對手高）系列賽。

[–]SpursNiloxam 346 指標 1 天前

Not sure ELO translates to team sports very well, right?

馬刺球迷：ELO評分制度是否能被很好地用於團隊體育中？不確定

[–]RocketsMr_Mike_Daniel_Tony 237 指標 1 天前

Ahh, a fellow LoL player.

火箭球迷：哈哈，英雄聯盟玩家有話說。

[–][UTA] Joe Ingleskoolaidman1030 111 指標 1 天前

Jordan was trapped in ELO hell fam

爵士球迷：喬丹被困在了ELO評分地獄裡了。

喜歡這篇文章嗎？立刻分享出去讓更多人知道吧！