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上合組織能否拉近印巴關係?Can the SCO Bring India and Pakistan Closer?

文/PK Vasudeva

By PK Vasudeva

於2001年6月正式成立的上海合作組織(以下簡稱「上合組織」)是一個橫跨歐亞的政治、經濟和安全區域合作組織,其前身是由中國、哈薩克、吉爾吉斯坦、俄羅斯、塔吉克組成的「上海五國」會晤機制。2002年6月,上合組織成員國在聖彼得堡峰會上簽訂了《上海合作組織憲章》,文件於2003年9月正式生效。

In June 2001, the creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Eurasian political, economic, and security organization, was announced by the 『Shanghai Five』 group comprising China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. The SCO Charter was signed in June 2002 and took effect in September 2003.

2000年,在塔吉克杜尚別峰會上,上合組織成員國達成共識,「反對以『人道主義』和『保護人權』為借口干涉別國內政,支持彼此維護國家獨立、主權、領土完整和社會穩定」。2015年,烏法峰會通過了關於啟動接收印度和巴基斯坦加入上合組織程序的決議。2016年6月,在烏茲別克塔什干峰會上,印巴兩國簽署了加入上合組織的義務備忘錄,標誌著兩國加入上合組織的程序正式啟動。

At the Dushanbe, Tajikistan summit in 2000, members agreed to 「oppose intervention in other countries』 internal affairs on the pretexts of 『humanitarianism』 and 『protecting human rights』; and support the efforts of one another to safeguard the five countries』 national independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and social stability.」 The SCO summit in Ufa, Russia, voted to admit India and Pakistan as full members. Both countries signed the memorandum of obligations in June 2016 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, launching the formal process of joining the SCO as full members.

2017年6月9日,在哈薩克阿斯塔納峰會上,印度和巴基斯坦正式成為上合組織成員。上合組織的八個成員國擁有世界近半數人口和近四分之一的GDP,佔據歐亞大陸面積的80%。隨著今年上合組織峰會在中國青島的召開,該組織的影響力將進一步增強。

On June 9, 2017, at a summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, India and Pakistan officially joined SCO as full members. Subsequently, SCO』s eight full members accounted for approximately half of the world』s population, almost a quarter of the world』s GDP and about 80 percent of Eurasia』s landmass. As the member nations prepare for this year』s summit in Qingdao of China, the scope of their influence is poised to expand.

降旗儀式在印巴邊境舉行,雙方國門衛兵握手。

但由於印巴關係緊張,許多潛在的挑戰需要我們保持高度敏感並通過明智的策略來應對。最初,人們對這兩個南亞鄰國一同加入上合組織感到擔憂。但鑒於成員國有義務進行對話和參與上合組織事務,印巴可能會在一個更好、更開放、更合作的平台上討論長期存在的問題。根據上合組織義務備忘錄,成員國也有參與聯合軍事演習的義務。

But with relations between India and Pakistan remain on uneasy footing, and a handful of potential challenges will need to be handled with tact and sensitivity. When the two South Asian neighbors became part of the SCO, apprehensions were initially raised. But because dialogue and participation of member nations are mandatory, India and Pakistan might find a better, more open and cooperative platform on which to discuss persisting issues. The memorandum of obligations also makes joint military exercises compulsory.

與其過於關注印巴差異,不如發掘和引導兩國的共性,以便建立互惠互利的關係。

Rather than focusing too much on differences, commonalities need to be harnessed and channeled properly to build a mutually beneficial relationship.

印度和巴基斯坦也是上合組織地區反恐怖機構執行委員會成員。反恐怖機構執委會是上合組織的常設執行機構,總部設在烏茲別克首都塔什干,致力於促使成員國共同打擊恐怖主義、分裂主義、極端主義「三股勢力」。近年來,該組織的活動逐步增加,增進各國在軍事合作、情報共享和反恐方面的合作。

India and Pakistan are also both members of the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS) headquartered in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, under the SCO. It is a permanent organ of the SCO, which serves to promote cooperation of member states against the three evils of terrorism, separatism and extremism. Over the past few years, the organization』s activities expanded to include increased military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and counterterrorism.

長期以來,作為一個區域經濟和安全組織,上合組織各成員國之間氛圍融洽。隨著印度和巴基斯坦的加入,中國可能在上合組織面臨越來越多的分歧。儘管印巴兩國在查謨-克什米爾地區存在領土爭議,中印兩國地緣政治競爭日益激烈,各成員國在反恐措施方面存在差異,但是在上合組織的健康環境下,仍可能拉近印度和巴基斯坦之間的關係。

With India and Pakistan as newly admitted members of the SCO, China will likely to face increasing divisiveness within a regional economic and security organization accustomed to extreme comity and cooperative discussion. But SCO could bring both India and Pakistan closer despite the Jammu and Kashmir disputes and rising geopolitical competition between the two Asian giants of India and China as well as contrasting approaches to counter-terrorism, because of healthy environment of give and take at the SCO.

印巴關係不時陷入緊張狀態,中方可以通過上海合作組織這個平台,友好調解兩國的緊張局勢。在沒有發生重大衝突的情況下,中方對印巴微妙的狀況做出了很好的回應。今年6月初,當被問及加入上合組織是否會對印度和巴基斯坦關係產生積極影響時,中國外交部發言人華春瑩表示,「我看到巴基斯坦記者坐這邊,印度記者坐那邊,我希望哪天你們可以坐得更靠近一點。」此外,《環球時報》發表了一篇文章,指出加入上合組織將會讓印度和巴基斯坦改善雙方關係。儘管有人認為這種觀點過於樂觀,但這為上合組織未來發展確定了正確的基調。

India-Pakistan tensions occasionally flare up, and Beijing may have to brace for either side to use the SCO as a platform to mediate for an amicable solution. In the absence of a major incident, Beijing has admirably handled the delicacy of this situation. When asked in early June whether SCO membership would positively impact India-Pakistan relations, China spokesperson Hua Chunying replied: 「I see the journalists from Pakistan sit right here while journalists from India sit over there. Maybe someday you can sit closer to each other.」 Global Times published an op-ed suggesting that SCO membership for India and Pakistan would lead to positive bilateral developments. Even if it is overly optimistic, such a development would set the right tone as the organization forges ahead.

4 月 24 日,第十一屆中國·東光紙箱機械國際博覽會在中國河北省東光縣舉行。來自美國、英國、法國、巴基斯坦、印度、西班牙、中國等 40 多個國家的 23000 多名客商參觀採購。圖為印度客商在展廳參觀後自拍留念。

但是,結果也可能與中國的預期相反。中國只需看看南亞地區的狀況,便能得到警示。印度和巴基斯坦都是南亞區域合作聯盟(簡稱「南盟」)成員。去年,印度聯合阿富汗、孟加拉和不丹共同抵制在伊斯蘭堡舉行的南盟峰會,因為印方認為巴基斯坦是查謨-克什米爾地區印度軍事基地遭受恐怖襲擊的幕後黑手。儘管南盟明文禁止在其進程中討論雙邊問題,但由於印巴爭端的影響,南盟多年來一直步履蹣跚。

But the odds remain stacked against China』s desired outcome. Beijing needs to look no further than South Asia for a cautionary tale. In this region, both India and Pakistan are members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). New Delhi, along with Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan, boycotted last year』s summit in Islamabad because it believed Pakistan was behind a terrorist attack on an Indian army base in Jammu and Kashmir. Even with an official ban on discussing bilateral issues in its proceedings, SAARC has been perennially hobbled by the intrusion of India-Pakistan disputes. Beijing can probably keep its close friend Islamabad in line at the SCO, but New Delhi would also have to fall in line.

無論在哪些國家之間發生摩擦,中國作為今年上合組織峰會的東道主,通過接納成員國的真實想法,妥善解決它們的正當要求,就能在歐亞大陸上成為和平的締造者。

Regardless of bickering between countries that may break out, host China could emerge as the peacemaker of the continent if it handles the summit carefully by accepting members』 genuine viewpoints and resolving their justified demands amicably.

對於印巴而言,建立一個持久的溝通渠道非常困難。這兩個南亞鄰國的關係經歷了多次的跌宕起伏。這種情況對上合組織來說是一個特殊的挑戰,也可以成為一塊試金石。若是成功開闢印度與巴基斯坦的溝通渠道,促進兩國關係發展,上合組織在全球舞台上的力量和影響將會大幅提升。

Establishing an ongoing and lasting channel of communication between India and Pakistan is difficult. The relationship of the two South Asian neighbors has seen a number of sharp ups and downs. But while this situation presents a unique challenge for the SCO, it can also prove a litmus test. Opening up channels of communication between India and Pakistan and strengthening their relationship will go a long way towards solidifying the SCO』s power and influence in the global arena.

本文作者PK Vasudeva是防務分析家和國際貿易專業教授。

The author is a defense analyst and retired professor of international trade.

本文為《中印對話》獨家稿件,歡迎分享,媒體轉載請聯繫我們。

This article is exclusive to China-India Dialogue. Feel free to share this article. To reprint this article, please contact us for permission.


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