摩根士丹利中國銀行業評論：金融出清在正道但中美貿易摩擦影響評級下調H股股價12％到19％

新聞 06-25

標題：金融出清在正道上，但貿易緊張局勢影響重新評級

We continue to believe that financial cleanup will support gradual NIM expansion and reduce long-term risks for banks. However, rising trade tensions have increased market risks and could limit near-term upside. We are cutting our H-share/Ashareprice targets by 12%/19% on average.

我們仍然認為金融出清將會得到支持逐步擴大凈息差並降低銀行的長期風險。然而，不斷上升的貿易緊張局勢增加了市場風險可能限制近期上漲空間。我們正在削減我們的H股/ Ashare價格目標平均上漲12％/ 19％。

Potential policy fine-tuning should not change the direction of financial cleanup efforts, and we continue to see upside for China banks on higher NIM, healthy ROE, solid dividend yield and lower long-term risks.

潛在的政策微調不應改變金融出清的方向努力，而且我們繼續看好中國銀行在凈息差上漲方面的健康發展ROE，穩定的股息收益率和較低的長期風險。

Despite some potential policy fine-tuning such as targeted RRR (reserve requirement ratio) cuts and higher local bond issuance, we believe ongoing financial cleanup efforts and related policies will lead to some further moderation in total credit growth and hence modestly higher average rates in China. Modestly higher asset yields, a better than expected deposit segmentation strategy widely adopted by banks, and potential RRR cuts should help contain the pace of the funding cost increase and support gradual net interest margin (NIM) expansion at banks with strong funding franchises. We do not see a major rebound in NPL formation despite rising bond defaults, considering healthy profit growth and EBIT interest cover at major industrial firms. While each bond default could be sizeable, we believe the cumulative NPLs (nonperforming loans) from bond defaults will not offset the likely lower NPL formation from the industrial sector. We expect rational industrial capacity expansion to reduce the negative impact on corporate profitability and credit quality risks from moderation in macroeconomic growth.

However, rising trade tensions with the US have increased market risks and could delay part of bank re-rating.

然而，與美國的貿易緊張關係不斷上升增加了市場風險可能會延遲部分銀行重新評級。

The June 15 and 18 announcements by the US and China of import tariffs indicate escalation of trade tensions that could complicate the macroeconomic outlook. We believe investors may require more evidence of a smooth cleanup process in the banking industry. In light of the higher risks, we raise beta estimates across the board by 0.1x to 1.05-1.5x for banks under our coverage and cut our H-share and A-share price targets by 12% and 19%, respectively, on average, anticipating higher market volatility. Our other changes include: 1) updating 2018 earnings forecasts; 2) raising beta estimates for city commercial banks to reflect potentially higher credit costs and deposit rate volatility due to higher customer concentration; 3) adjusting ROE and beta for selected shareholding banks in light of recent financial results. Our top picks are PSBC, CCB, ABC and CRCB, while we continue to see turnaround opportunities at CITIC Bank and Minsheng.

金融出清應該支持逐步的NIM擴張和減少銀行的長期風險