摩根士丹利：跨國公司對中國的展望惡化數據來源全球231家跨國公司銷售額達6.1萬億美元貿易保護主義是一個關鍵的負面因素

新聞 07-05

【主要發現】Our Global MNCs" China outlook index declined to 48% vs.62% in 4Q17 earnings season. By region, US MNCs" outlook onChina declined the most. By sector, Consumer Staples,Healthcare and Materials MNCs" outlook on China declined themost. By theme, trade protectionism was a key negative.

我們的全球跨國公司的中國展望指數下降至48％，而4Q17季為62％。按地區劃分，美國跨國公司對中國的展望下降幅度最大。按行業劃分，消費必需品，醫療保健和材料跨國公司對中國的展望下降幅度最大。按主題，貿易保護主義是一個關鍵的負面因素。

我們的全球跨國公司（MNCs）中國現狀指數和展望指數均較2017年第4季度下跌

Our Global Multinational Corporations (MNCs) China current conditions indexand outlook index both declined versus 4Q17: Our global MNCs" China OutlookIndex fell to 48% in the 1Q18 earnings season vs. 62% in 4Q17 (Bloomberg:MSCZMNCFIndex). This index shows the net balance of companies thathave afavourable outlook for revenue from China minus the percentage of companiesthathave an adverse outlook for revenue from China. Global MNCs" ChinaCurrent Conditions index declined to 49% in 1Q18 earnings season from 59% in4Q17 (Bloomberg: MSCZMNCC Index). See Exhibit 1.

按地區劃分，美國跨國公司在中國現狀和前景方面下降幅度最大，而只有歐洲跨國公司在中國展望方面有所改善

Byregion, US MNCs had thelargest declinein both China Current Conditionsand Outlook, while only Europe MNCs showed an improvement in ChinaOutlook: US MNCs net balance of China current conditions and outlook declinedmaterially to 43% in 1Q18 earnings season vs. 61% in 4Q17 and 29% in 1Q18 vs.57% in 4Q17 (led by US IT and Healthcare MNCs). Japan and EM/APxJ MNCsChina current conditions and outlook also declined in 1Q18 earnings seasonversus 4Q17. Only European MNCs reported a improvement in China outlookindex to 71% in 1Q18 earnings season vs. 61% in 4Q17.

按行業劃分，消費必需品，醫療保健和材料跨國公司在中國展望中的跌幅最大

Overall bysector, Consumer Staples, Healthcareand Materials MNCs had thelargest declinein China Outlook: The net balance of favourable minus adversefor the Consumer Staples MNCs dropped the most to 69% in 1Q18 earningsseason from 88% in 4Q17 followed by Healthcare to 54% in 1Q18 from 70% in4Q17 and Materials to 45% from 62% in 4Q17. We highlight Morgan Stanley"sUW-rated China Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Materials companies withhigh exposure to China"s domestic market. See Exhibit 2

就主題而言，中國的彈性消費和穩定的宏觀環境是全球跨國公司強調的最積極的主題，而貿易保護主義風險上升是最負面的主題。材料，非必需消費品（汽車）和工業部門的跨國公司在貿易保護主義主題的凈負面提及數量最多。

In terms of themes, resiliencein consumption and a stable macro environmentin China werethe most positivethemes highlighted by Global MNCs, whilerisingtrade protectionism risk was the most negativetheme. MNCs in Materials,Consumer Discretionary (autos) and Industrials sector had the highestnumber ofnetnegative mentions of trade protectionism theme.