分析師關於央行政策立場轉變的表示

Shift seen in central bank policy stance, say analysts

分析師關於央行政策立場轉變的表示

??ft si?n ?n ?s?ntr?l b??k ?p?l?si stɑ?ns, se? ??n?l?sts

By Chen Jia | China Daily | Updated: 2018-07-03 09:33

The government has become increasingly aware of the disruptive impact deleveraging can have on the economy if it is too fast and aggressive. [Photo/IC]

e? ?g?vnm?nt h?z b??k?m ?n?kri?s??li ??we?r ?v e? d?s?r?pt?v ??mp?kt deleveraging k?n h?v ?n ei i(?)?k?n?mi ?f ?t s tu? fɑ?st ?nd ??gr?s?v. [?f??t??/a?-si?]

政府越來越意識到，如果去槓桿化速度過快、力度過大，會對經濟產生破壞性影響。

【圖片/ IC】

Expert: PBOC has become more cautious on its outlook for the global economy

??ksp??t: pi?-bi?-??-si? h?z b??k?m m?? ?k????s ?n ?ts ?a?tl?k f? e? ?gl??b?l i(?)?k?n?mi

專家:中國人民銀行對全球經濟前景更加謹慎

Recent faster-than-expected liquidity injection and more frequent monetary policy operations in China could change investors" strategy, as they predict a shift in the central bank"s policy stance toward easing.

?ri?snt ?fɑ?st?-e?n-?ks?p?kt?d l??kw?d?ti ?n???k??n ?nd m?? ?fri?kw?nt ?m?n?t?ri ?p?l?si ??p??re???nz ?n ??a?n? k?d ?e?n? ?n?v?st?z ?str?t??i, ?z ee? pr??d?kt ? ??ft ?n e? ?s?ntr?l b??ks ?p?l?si stɑ?ns t??w??d ?i?z??.

中國近期注入的流動性快於預期，加上貨幣政策操作更為頻繁，可能會改變投資者的策略，因為他們預計中國央行的政策立場將轉向寬鬆。

Without any confirmation from the nation"s monetary authority, analysts are hunting for hints by comparing recent official statements.

w??ea?t ??ni ?k?nf??me???n fr?m e? ?ne???nz ?m?n?t?ri ???θ?r?ti, ??n?l?sts ? ?h?nt?? f? h?nts ba? k?m?pe?r?? ?ri?snt ??f???l ?ste?tm?nts.

在沒有得到美國貨幣當局的任何確認的情況下，分析人士正在通過比較最近的官方聲明來尋找暗示。

The People"s Bank of China, the nation"s central bank, in a statement after its monetary policy committee meeting for the second quarter on June 28, called for "closely monitoring domestic and external economic and financial market trends" and to "improve economic predictions and forward-looking policy fine-tuning", to maintain "reasonably adequate" liquidity conditions at the same time.

e? ?pi?plz b??k ?v ??a?n?, e? ?ne???nz ?s?ntr?l b??k, ?n ? ?ste?tm?nt ?ɑ?ft?r ?ts ?m?n?t?ri ?p?l?si k??m?ti ?mi?t?? f? e? ?s?k?nd ?kw??t?r ?n ?u?n 28, k??ld f?? "?kl??sli ?m?n?t?r?? d???m?st?k ?nd ?ks?t??nl ?i?k??n?m?k ?nd fa??n?n??l ?mɑ?k?t tr?ndz" ?nd t? "?m?pru?v ?i?k??n?m?k pr??d?k??nz ?nd ?f??w?d?l?k?? ?p?l?si fa?n-?tju?n??", t? me?n?te?n "?ri?zn?bli ??d?kw?t" l??kw?d?ti k?n?d???nz ?t e? se?m ta?m.

中國人民銀行,國家的央行貨幣政策委員會會議後發表聲明第二季6月28日呼籲「密切關注國內外經濟和金融市場趨勢」和「提高經濟預測和前瞻性的政策微調」,保持「合理足夠的流動性狀況在同一時間。

The meeting is usually held quarterly, and the latest one was the first gathering after the committee was reshuffled in mid-June.

e? ?mi?t?? z ?ju????li h?ld ?kw??t?li, ?nd e? ?le?t?st w?n w?z e? f??st ?g?e?r?? ?ɑ?ft? e? k??m?ti w?z ?ri????fld ?n m?d-?u?n.

會議通常每季度舉行一次，最近的一次會議是6月中旬委員會改組後的第一次會議。

Compared with the statement it issued for the fourth quarter of last year, the PBOC has become more cautious on its global economic outlook, and has softened its tone on deleveraging, said Lu Ting, chief economist in China with Nomura Securities.

k?m?pe?d w?e e? ?ste?tm?nt ?t ???u?d f? e? f??θ ?kw??t?r ?v lɑ?st j??, e? pi?-bi?-??-si? h?z b??k?m m?? ?k????s ?n ?ts ?gl??b?l ?i?k??n?m?k ?a?tl?k, ?nd h?z ?s?fnd ?ts t??n ?n deleveraging, s?d Lu t??, ?i?f i(?)?k?n?m?st ?n ??a?n? w?e Nomura s??kj??r?tiz.

野村證券(Nomura Securities)中國區首席經濟學家陸挺表示，與去年第四季度發布的聲明相比，中國央行對其全球經濟前景變得更為謹慎，並在去槓桿化問題上軟化了語氣。

"These changes are in line with recent shifts in the PBOC"s policy stance and support our view of more policy easing measures in coming months," according to Lu, who noticed that the government has become increasingly aware of the disruptive impact deleveraging can have on the economy if it is too fast and aggressive.

ei?z ??e?n??z ?r ?n la?n w?e ?ri?snt ??fts ?n e? pi?-bi?-??-si?z ?p?l?si stɑ?ns ?nd s??p??t ?a?? vju? ?v m?? ?p?l?si ?i?z?? ?m???z ?n ?k?m?? m?nθs," ??k??d?? t? Lu, hu? ?n??t?st e?t e? ?g?vnm?nt h?z b??k?m ?n?kri?s??li ??we?r ?v e? d?s?r?pt?v ??mp?kt deleveraging k?n h?v ?n ei i(?)?k?n?mi ?f ?t s tu? fɑ?st ?nd ??gr?s?v.

「這些變化與最近中國央行政策立場的轉變和支持我們的觀點更多的寬鬆政策措施在未來幾個月,「陸注意到,政府越來越意識到對經濟的破壞性影響去槓桿化可以如果太快並咄咄逼人的話。

Anxiety over China"s recent economic trends emerged recently among some economists, given the increased external uncertain factors such as a potential Sino-US trade war and cross-border capital outflow pressure in emerging market economies as the US central bank plans to continually raise interest rates.

???za??ti ???v? ??a?n?z ?ri?snt ?i?k??n?m?k tr?ndz ??m???d ?ri?sntli ??m?? s?m i(?)?k?n?m?sts, ?g?vn ei ?n?kri?st ?ks?t??nl ?n?s??tn ?f?kt?z s?? ?z ? p???t?n??l Sino-ju???s tre?d w??r ?nd kr?s-?b??d? ?k?p?tl ?a?tfl?? ?pr???r ?n ??m????? ?mɑ?k?t i(?)?k?n?miz ?z e? ju???s ?s?ntr?l b??k pl?nz t? k?n?t?nj??li re?z ??ntr?st re?ts.

一些經濟學家最近對中國最近的經濟趨勢感到焦慮，因為隨著美國央行計劃繼續加息，外部不確定因素增多，比如中美可能爆發貿易戰，以及新興市場經濟體面臨跨境資本外流壓力。

"Monetary policy is not the panacea to solve all of the problems, especially as the probability of external shocks is increasing," said Xu Zhong, director of the central bank"s research bureau.

?m?n?t?ri ?p?l?si, hi s?d, ?ple?s?z m??r ??mf?s?s ?n me?n?te?n?? ?ste?bl ?m?kr?? ?n?va??r?nm?nt ??nd? e? ?s??k?mst?ns?z ?nd, ??b?v ??l, ?t w?l h?v ?l?m?t?d ru?m f? m??nu?v? t? ??dr?s p???t?n??l ?i?k??n?m?k ?da?n?sa?d r?sks.

中國央行研究局局長徐中表示:「貨幣政策不是解決所有問題的靈丹妙藥，尤其是在外部衝擊的可能性正在加大的情況下。」

Monetary policy, he said, places more emphasis on maintaining stable macro environment under the circumstances and, above all, it will have limited room for maneuver to address potential economic downside risks.

?m?n?t?ri ?p?l?si, hi s?d, ?ple?s?z m??r ??mf?s?s ?n me?n?te?n?? ?ste?bl ?m?kr?? ?n?va??r?nm?nt ??nd? e? ?s??k?mst?ns?z ?nd, ??b?v ??l, ?t w?l h?v ?l?m?t?d ru?m f? m??nu?v? t? ??dr?s p???t?n??l ?i?k??n?m?k ?da?n?sa?d r?sks.

他說，貨幣政策更強調在當前形勢下保持宏觀環境穩定，最重要的是，它在應對潛在經濟下行風險方面的迴旋餘地有限。

Too much reliance on monetary policy is likely to conceal credit risks when liquidity is sufficient, and lower investment returns could be neglected when lending costs are at a low level, according to the central bank official.

tu? m?? r??la??ns ?n ?m?n?t?ri ?p?l?si z ?la?kli t? k?n?si?l ?kr?d?t r?sks w?n l??kw?d?ti z s??f???nt, ?nd ?l???r ?n?v?stm?nt r??t??nz k?d bi n??gl?kt?d w?n ?l?nd?? k?sts ?r ?t ? l?? ?l?vl, ??k??d?? t? e? ?s?ntr?l b??k ??f???l.

他說,貨幣政策更強調在當前形勢下保持宏觀環境穩定,最重要的是,它在應對潛在經濟下行風險方面的迴旋餘地有限。

"That may finally drive the monetary environment toward more easing but do little to restructure the economy, or lead to an even worse situation," added Xu, who suggested keeping monetary policy prudent and neutral and to effectively push forward the deleveraging process.

e?t me? ?fa?n?li dra?v e? ?m?n?t?ri ?n?va??r?nm?nt t??w??d m??r ?i?z?? b?t d? ?l?tl t? ?ri??str?k?? ei i(?)?k?n?mi, ?? li?d t? ?n ?i?v?n w??s ?s?tj??e???n," ??d?d Xu, hu? s????st?d ?ki?p?? ?m?n?t?ri ?p?l?si ?pru?d?nt ?nd ?nju?tr?l ?nd t? ??f?kt?vli p?? ?f??w?d e? deleveraging ?pr??s?s.

「這可能最終會推動貨幣環境朝著更寬鬆的方向發展，但對經濟結構的調整作用不大，或者導致更糟糕的情況，」徐補充說。他建議保持貨幣政策的審慎和中性，並有效推進去槓桿化進程。

Since the second quarter, the central bank has accelerated policy fine-tuning including an expansion of the list of medium-term lending facility qualifying collateral and a 50-basis-point targeted cut of the reserve requirement ratio which will come into effect on Thursday.

s?ns e? ?s?k?nd ?kw??t?, e? ?s?ntr?l b??k h?z ?k?s?l?re?t?d ?p?l?si fa?n-?tju?n?? ?n?klu?d?? ?n ?ks?p?n??n ?v e? l?st ?v ?mi?di?m-t??m ?l?nd?? f??s?l?ti ?kw?l?fa??? k??l?t?r?l ?nd e? 50-?be?s?s-p??nt ?tɑ?g?t?d k?t ?v e? r??z??v r??kwa??m?nt ?re????? w?? w?l k?m ??nt? ??f?kt ?n ?θ??zde?.

自第二季度以來，中國央行加快了政策微調，包括擴大符合抵押品資格的中期貸款安排，以及將於周四生效的50個基點目標下調存款準備金率。

It seems China"s monetary policy is more asynchronous, while the US Federal Reserve is gradually normalizing its balance sheet and raising policy rates, according to analysts.

?t si?mz ??a?n?z ?m?n?t?ri ?p?l?si z m??r ??s??kr?n?s, wa?l e? ju???s ?f?d?r?l r??z??v z ?gr?dj??li ?n??m?la?z?? ?ts ?b?l?ns ?i?t ?nd ?re?z?? ?p?l?si re?ts, ??k??d?? t? ??n?l?sts.

分析師們表示，中國的貨幣政策似乎更為不同步，而美聯儲(fed)正逐漸將其資產負債表正常化，並提高政策利率。

Central banks face tough challenges ahead, said the 2018 annual economic report issued by the Bank for International Settlements. "Only well into the second quarter of 2018 were there signs that a significant change could be in the offing, especially for emerging market economies."

?s?ntr?l b??ks fe?s t?f ???l?n??z ??h?d, s?d ei? 2018 ??nj??l ?i?k??n?m?k r??p??t ???u?d ba? e? b??k f?r ??nt?(?)?n???nl ?s?tlm?nts. "???nli w?l ??nt? e? ?s?k?nd ?kw??t?r ?v 2018 w? ee? sa?nz e?t ? s?g?n?f?k?nt ?e?n? k?d bi ?n ei ??f??, ?s?p???li f?r ??m????? ?mɑ?k?t i(?)?k?n?miz."

國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)發布的2018年年度經濟報告稱，各國央行未來面臨嚴峻挑戰。「直到2018年第二季度，才有跡象顯示，未來可能會發生重大變化，尤其是對新興市場經濟體而言。」

The BIS report said this highlights the delicate balance central banks must strike: moving too slowly in the monetary policy normalization process could give rise to overheating and financial stability risks. On the other hand, moving too fast could trigger disruptive market reactions and harm economic recovery, not least as global debt levels relative to GDP have continued to increase and financial market valuations appear stretched.

e? b?s r??p??t s?d e?s ?ha??la?ts e? ?d?l?k?t ?b?l?ns ?s?ntr?l b??ks m?st stra?k: ?mu?v?? tu? ?sl??li ?n e? ?m?n?t?ri ?p?l?si ?n??m?la??ze???n ?pr??s?s k?d g?v ra?z t? ???v??hi?t?? ?nd fa??n?n??l st??b?l?ti r?sks. ?n ei ??e? h?nd, ?mu?v?? tu? fɑ?st k?d ?tr?g? d?s?r?pt?v ?mɑ?k?t ri(?)??k??nz ?nd hɑ?m ?i?k??n?m?k r??k?v?ri, n?t li?st ?z ?gl??b?l d?t ?l?vlz ?r?l?t?v t? ?i?-di?-pi? h?v k?n?t?nju(?)d t? ??nkri?s ?nd fa??n?n??l ?mɑ?k?t ?v?lj??e???nz ??p?? str??t.

國際清算銀行的報告稱，這凸顯了各國央行必須採取的微妙平衡:在貨幣政策正常化過程中動作太慢，可能會導致過熱和金融穩定風險。另一方面，行動過快可能會引發市場反應，損害經濟復甦，尤其是在全球債務相對GDP水平繼續上升、金融市場估值似乎過高的情況下。

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