「顛覆者」Netflix要向傳統電視靠近？

Netflix的崛起顛覆了電視行業，也擾亂了好萊塢的陣腳，但最近這家流媒體服務公司地位因用戶增長遭遇瓶頸受到動搖了。要想繼續發展，Netflix就必須解決訂閱用戶數量增長、債務、競爭對手、服務好年輕觀眾等問題。

「顛覆者」Netflix要向傳統電視靠近？

譯者：王津雨 & 邵海靈

校對：朱明艾

策劃：鄒世昌

Below-par subscriber numbers last week were bad news for a service that must keep growing to survive. How will it respond?

對於一家必須不斷增長才能存活的服務公司來說，上周的新增用戶數量沒有達標無疑是個壞消息。Netflix將如何應對呢？

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The rise of Netflix has torn up TV schedules and destabilised Hollywood, but last week it was the streaming service』s turn to be shaken. Shares in the maker of Stranger Things and The Crown suffered their biggest drop in two years on Monday after a surprising failure to hit subscriber targets.

Netflix的崛起顛覆了電視行業，也擾亂了好萊塢的陣腳，但上周輪到這家流媒體服務公司地位受到動搖了。身為《怪奇物語》和《王冠》的出品方，該公司的新增用戶竟然沒有達到預期，導致其股價在上周一遭遇了兩年內的最大跌幅。

A torrent of Netflix-produced content - 700 original TV shows and 80 films this year alone - has kept the fans rolling in and made Netflix a darling with investors. But last week』s figures revived doubts about the US company』s business model. Here are some of the challenges that Netflix must address if it is to sustain its $165bn (￡127bn) valuation.

Netflix僅在今年就出品了700部原創電視節目和80部電影，這股原創作品洪流吸粉無數，也使投資者對其青睞有加。但上周的數據再次引發了人們對這家美國公司商業模式的疑慮。如果Netflix還想維持其1650億美元（摺合1270億英鎊）的市場估值，那就必須解決以下難題：

Subscriber growth

訂閱用戶數量增長

Netflix stock fell more than 14% inafter-hours tradingon Monday after the company missed subscriber growth forecasts for the second quarter by 1 million. The company still added 5.2 million new users globally, which, given its base of 130 million, hardly feels like a crisis. However, the Netflix investment case relies on remaining in constant high-growth mode, and that means continuing to be able to acquire new subscribers steadily, quarter after quarter. And that is getting tougher as the 「easy」 subscribers in the US and major western markets have mostly been converted.

Netflix第二季度的用戶增長數量比預期低了100萬，周一的盤後股價隨即跌超14%。其實Netflix在全球範圍內還是新增了520萬用戶，鑒於其1.3億的用戶基數，100萬的差數很難算得上是危機。然而，對該公司的投資依賴於其保持高速增長的商業模式，這意味著Netflix在每一季度都要持續獲得數量穩定的新用戶。隨著美國和西方其他主要市場中「唾手可得」的用戶大多已經路轉粉，要實現用戶增長也變得越來越困難。

after-hours trading：After-hours trading is trading that occurs after the traditional trading hours of the major exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market. Since 1985, the regular trading hours in the United States have been from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time (ET). After-hours trading on a day with a normal session occurs from 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET.盤後交易：股票市場在每天正常交易時間結束後的交易活動。

「Netflix』s big challenge is maintaining growth worldwide while its customer base saturates in core western markets,」 says Richard Broughton, analyst at Ampere. 「Netflix is having to work ever harder to gain new subscribers.」 The low-cost nature of the streaming service - a premium subscription costs ￡9.99 per month in the UK and $13.99 in the US - means that it needs inexorable growth to pay for its content. Must-watch shows and films beget happy customers and draw new subscribers, which helps pay for even more content. Netflix』s content budget is $8bn this year alone - it costs a lot of money to attract a Hollywood star such as Will Smith to a sci-fi film like Bright - and in recent years it has been raised by about $1bn annually. Netflix is stuck in a costly and precarious cycle.

安培公司分析師理查德·布勞頓指出：「Netflix面臨的巨大挑戰在於，它需在全世界範圍內維持增長，但其用戶基數在西方的核心市場已經飽和，因此現在不得不更加努力地爭取新用戶。」流媒體服務的廉價性質意味著它需要不斷增加用戶來為內容付費（在英國，高級會員的費用為每月9.99英鎊，在美國為13.99美元）。必看類節目和電影能招來那些花錢買樂的觀眾，並能吸引新用戶，這有助於公司購買更多的內容。僅在今年，Netflix購買內容的預算就達到了80億美元——想吸引威爾·史密斯這樣的好萊塢明星出演《光靈》這樣的科幻電影，是需要砸下重金的——而且近年來，這份預算一直按每年約10億美元的幅度在增長。Netflix如今陷在了一個成本不菲又岌岌可危的循環之中。

Debt

債務

Netflix is running up substantial liabilities as it struggles to bridge the gap between revenue and the spiralling cost of content. Ampere puts Netflix』s total liabilities at $30bn-$33bn, with debt about a third of this, while the majority is programming commitments. Its debt mountain has grown from $300m as recently as March 2016 to almost $9bn at the end of the second quarter this year. In April, it issued its fifth bond in three years, which added $1.9bn in fresh debt.

為了努力彌補收入與急劇上升的內容成本之間的差距，公司的債台也日益高築。安培公司估算Netflix的總負債約為300-330億美元，其中約三分之一為實際債務，而大頭則是發展計劃中承諾擔負的義務。短短兩年的時間裡，該公司的巨額債務就從2016年3月的3億美元一路飆升，到今年第二季度末已經接近90億美元。今年4月，該公司發行了三年內的第五期債券，債務也增加了19億美元。

Netflix declares a profit - expected to be about $1bn this year - because it is able to spread the costs of making shows over a number of years. Its total streaming obligations, for making and licensing TV and film content, will cost it $18bn over the next few years. It also has $3bn-$5bn in costs it expects to pay relating to 「traditional film output deals or certain TV series licence agreements where the number of seasons to be aired is unknown」.

Netflix宣布，今年利潤預期將達到10億美元左右，因為它能在接下來的數年裡分攤節目製作的成本。今後幾年內，該公司將花費超過180億美元來清還流媒體方面的債務，用於製作電視和電影內容並取得相關許可。此外，它還預計要支出30億至50億美元，用以支付「傳統的電影出品協議或特定的電視連續劇授權協議（電視劇播放的季數還未確定）」。

The growth machine is struggling to keep up. Netflix expects a negative free cash flow of between $3bn and $4bn this year, meaning the amount its spends on content, marketing and other costs in 2018 will exceed what it earns from subscriber revenue ($16bn) by at least $3bn.

Netflix的增長模式正在努力跟上成本。今年Netflix的自由現金流預計為負40億至負30億美元，這意味著2018年該公司在內容、市場營銷及其他方面的成本將超出它的用戶訂閱收入（160億美元）至少30億。

Rivals

競爭對手

In the early days of building a streaming empire, Netflix was able to get hold of the rights to TV shows and films on the cheap. Rights owners and future rivals had not identified the global potential of subscription video-on-demand rights, and Netflix prospered. The value of those rights has now spiralled, which has pushed up Netflix』s content budgets and fuelled its drive to produce its own content.

在打造流媒體帝國的早期階段，Netflix能夠以低廉的價格獲得電視節目和電影的版權。當時，版權所有者和未來的競爭對手還沒能意識到訂閱視頻點播業務在全球的發展潛力，Netflix遂一舉成功。如今版權價格已飛速攀升，抬高了Netflix的內容預算，從而促使該公司製作自己的內容。

This strategy is also designed to help maintain Netflix』s popularity as some partners withdraw content because they now see Netflix as a threat to their own ambitions. Last year, Disney said it would pull all its content from Netflix in the US - including the Marvel superhero films, Star Wars, Pixar films such as Toy Story and big hits such as Frozen and Beauty and the Beast - as it tries to launch its own rival service.

推行這一策略也是為了維持人氣，因為一些合作方開始將Netflix視為自身發展的強大威脅，於是撤回了內容。去年，迪士尼公司宣布，它將在美國範圍內的Netflix上撤下其所有內容——包括漫威英雄電影、《星球大戰》系列、《玩具總動員》一類的皮克斯工作室出品的電影以及像《冰雪奇緣》和《美女與野獸》這樣的大片——因為迪士尼正在嘗試推出自己的流媒體服務。

Disney』s $71bn bid for Rupert Murdoch』s Fox, which includes the studio behind films such as X-Men and Deadpool and TV shows such as The Simpsons, is a move to control crown-jewel content to supply its service and further starve Netflix.

迪士尼出價710億美元試圖收購魯伯特·默多克的部分福克斯資產，包括製作了電影《X戰警》和《死侍》及《辛普森一家》等電視劇的20世紀福克斯。這也是為了控制最具競爭力的影視內容，把它們都收歸自己旗下，從而進一步切斷Netflix的貨源。

In addition, although Netflix』s huge budgets - the first series of The Crown cost ￡100m - have opened up a new golden age of television, they have also stoked inflation for top on-screen and off-screen talent, with rising costs further fuelled by competition from Amazon and Apple. 「Netflix has invested big and inflated the market for scripted drama, but this is classic unsustainable bubble territory,」 says Tim Mulligan, analyst at MIDiA Research.

此外，儘管Netflix斥1億英鎊巨資打造的第一季《王冠》開創了新的電視劇黃金時代，但同時也將聘請演員和製作團隊的花費推上了新一輪通脹高峰，而且來自亞馬遜和蘋果公司的競爭也進一步加劇製作成本的上升。「Netflix為電視劇傾注的大筆投資已經使市場出現了價格虛高的通脹現象，但這是典型的不可持續發展，是一戳就破的泡沫。」媒體與技術分析公司MIDiA的分析師蒂姆·馬利根如是說。

Young viewers

年輕觀眾

Netflix is doing fine against traditional TV companies. Earlier this year, the BBC revealed that 16- to 24-year-olds spend more time with the US streaming service in a week than with all of BBC TV, including the BBC iPlayer. Youth-targeted shows such as Stranger Things and Thirteen Reasons Why have been major hits, but Netflix faces some of the same pressures caused by the rapid generational shift in viewing habits.

相較於傳統電視公司，Netflix表現還不錯。今年早些時候，BBC公布的數據顯示：16到24歲的觀眾平均每周花在這家美國流媒體服務公司上的時間超過了觀看所有BBC電視節目的時間，其中還包括BBC的iPlayer。像《怪奇物語》和《13個理由》這樣以年輕觀眾為目標的電視劇已經大獲成功，但收視習慣的代際差異變化之快，也給Netflix造成了壓力。

The BBC』s research found that more than 80% of children go to the Google-owned YouTube for on-demand content (half also go to Netflix). Last week, media regulator Ofcom revealed that 16- to 34-year-olds spend more time watching non-broadcast content - such as streaming services, catch-up and on-demand TV - than traditional scheduled TV. YouTube was again found to be the biggest winner, accounting for the highest proportion of non-broadcast viewing in the age group.

BBC的研究發現，超過80%的兒童都會去谷歌旗下的YouTube觀看點播內容（其中一半兒童也會上Netflix）。媒體監管機構Ofcom上周公布的數據顯示，16至34歲的觀眾在非廣播節目上（如流媒體、回放劇或付費電視）所花的時間已經超過了觀看傳統電視節目的時間。YouTube再度成為最大贏家，在該年齡段觀眾所看的非廣播節目中佔據了最大份額。

The BBC』s research found that children aged five to 15 spend more time each week online (15 hours and 18 minutes on average) than they do watching conventional or streamed TV (14 hours). All media is now in competition for attention, and online it is the Facebook-owned Instagram and Snapchat that are currently dominating the attention of younger generations.

BBC的研究發現，5到15歲的兒童每周上網所花時間（平均15小時18分鐘）超過了觀看傳統節目或流媒體電視的時間（14小時）。所有的媒體都在競相爭奪觀眾的注意力，而Snapchat和臉書旗下的Instagram成為了目前備受年輕一代關注和青睞的網路收視大戶。

Moving into sport and news

向體育和新聞進軍

A key part of Netflix』s rapid growth is that it is cheap: the most popular ￡7.99-a-month package is seen by many as a bargain for access to such a vast range of content.

Neflix快速增長的關鍵之一是便宜：最受歡迎的包月套餐對很多人來說都是非常划算的價格：只要7.99英鎊即可觀看平台上的海量影視內容。

Last week, Ofcom revealed that subscribers to streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon had overtaken numbers taking traditional pay-TV services such as Sky and Virgin Media for the first time. However, Netflix』s low-cost nature has meant that subscribers mostly choose to bolt it on as an additional option. Viewers mostly keep their main pay-TV subscription, which is more expensive but provides wider content such as exclusive football and news services.

Ofcom上周公布的調查顯示，訂閱Netflix和亞馬遜等流媒體服務的用戶數量首次超過了Sky和Virgin Media等傳統付費電視。然而，Netflix的低價屬性意味著大部分用戶只是把它作為一個額外選項在使用。大部分觀眾仍繼續訂閱著他們以前主要觀看的付費電視，雖然價格更貴，但提供的內容範圍也更廣，比如獨家播出的足球比賽或者新聞服務。

Some analysts believe that Netflix needs to develop its content offering and become more like traditional TV companies in order to become a 「must-have」 service. 「Netflix is the TV disrupter that everyone is watching to see what they do next,」 says Mulligan. 「To move to the next level they need to add global news and sport to their content offer.」

有些分析家認為，Netflix需要在內容品類上向傳統電視公司靠攏，以期發展為用戶「必備」的媒體服務。馬利根指出：「Netflix是電視行業的顛覆者，現在各方都在關注它的下一步舉動。要更上一層台階，Netflix就需要增加世界新聞和體育方面的內容。」

Doing so would also justify the inevitable price rises that Netflix is having to introduce as it continues the race to cover its costs. The company is already experimenting in Europe with a high-definition 「ultra」 subscription, which costs €16.99-€19.99 a month in Germany and Italy. Traditional pay-TV companies such as Sky, which originally built its business on exclusive Premier League rights, charge up to ￡100 a month, though this also includes costs for landlines and broadband.

這樣做也能讓Netflix有充分的理由來採取不可避免的提價，因為它仍在繼續努力創收收回成本。該公司已經在歐洲開始嘗試推出高清「尊享」訂閱服務，其價格在德國和義大利為16.99至19.99歐。Sky原本是基於提供獨家英超聯賽直播而成功起家的，現在像Sky這類傳統的付費電視公司訂閱費用可高達每月100英鎊，不過這也包括了固定電話和寬頻的費用。

「Netflix』s long-term strategy is that it has to increase its revenue from subscribers; it needs to move into those content genres to replicate the journey of traditional pay-TV companies,」 says Mulligan. 「You need a full suite of content if you want to be a real substitute, not just an additive service.」

「Netflix的長期戰略是必須從用戶身上獲取更多的收益；它需要進軍那些內容領域以複製傳統付費電視公司的成功之路，」馬利根說，「如果你想成為真正意義上的傳統電視替代者，就必須擁有品類齊全的內容，而不僅僅是錦上添花的服務。」

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