年輕人如何思考未來？
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有些問題值得反覆思考，有些問題思考了就是浪費時間。許多年輕人初入職場時不知道怎麼思考
未來的職業生涯
，本周末的會員語音
「職場第一年最重要的三方面」
，或許能幫你解決一些職場初期的困惑。
年輕人如何思考未來？
原標題：如果你還年輕，如何思考未來？
作者：戴汨
來源：ThinkingSlow緩慢思考(ID:ThinkingSlow)
原文來自YC的CEO Sam的blog。這是我看到的關於年輕人如何思考未來最好的建議，沒有之一。我的唯一補充建議就是：如果你還年輕，閱讀三遍！：-）
As a kid, I just sort of took for granted that stuff got better every year—TVs got bigger and then thinner, cars got a little faster, and computers got unbelievably better on an exponential curve.
孩子的時候，我想當然地認為，每年都會越來越好 — 電視越來越大，越來越薄，汽車越來越快，電腦以指數曲線的速度變好。
As an adult, I realized that the future is not guaranteed to be better. The default is that things stay the same (or get worse because we continue to create new problems and occasionally get in wars). The world only gets better if committed people with strong visions about the future work hard to make it better.
作為一個成年人，我意識到未來不能保證更好。正常的情況是，事情保持不變（或變得更糟，因為我們不斷創造新的問題，偶爾還爆發戰爭）。只有那些對未來報有強烈願景和堅定信念的人努力使它更好，世界才會變得更好。
It』s easy to get caught up in the moving sidewalk of a career and end up deeply involved in something that does not maximize your potential. It』s never too late to change, and it』s always good to be thoughtful about the path you』re on and how to best use your time.
人很容易陷入職業生涯的岔道，忙忙碌碌於那些不能最大發揮你潛力的東西。做出改變永遠都不晚，你應該充分的思考清楚你現在的這條職業道路，以及如何最好地利用你的時間。
I made some notes before my brother Jack interviewed me for How to Build the Future, where I mostly talked about how ambitious young people should think about their careers. I thought I』d clean those up to share for the New Year. Here they are.
我的兄弟Jack要就「如何構建未來」這個話題採訪我，我準備了一些提要筆記，主要討論雄心勃勃的年輕人應該如何思考他們的職業生涯。新年來了，我把這些內容整理了一下，分享出來。
On What To Work On
做什麼工作
I think the best way to pick what you want to do is to find the intersection of what you』re good at, what you enjoy, what the world needs, and what the world values.
我認為，選擇你想做的工作最好的方法是找到三者的交集：你擅長的，你喜歡的，世界需要的並且有價值的。
It』s not easy to figure out what you actually care about– there are so many directions you can go. But rather than listening to where other people might push you, it』s worth trying to figure this out for yourself. Don』t chase other people』s ideas of what matters. The best way to succeed long-term is to deeply believe that what you』re doing matters.
弄清楚你真正關心什麼並不容易 — 有這麼多方向你可以去。但不要聽隨其他人推動你，你需要自己搞明白。不要追逐別人的想法。
長期成功的最好辦法是深深相信你在做的事情很重要。
Most people just fall into things that come their way. That can work – people sometimes just have to try stuff to figure out what they like – but I think it』s worth being more deliberate. Try to develop and carefully refine strong convictions about what you want to accomplish.
大多數人都是隨遇而安。這沒什麼問題 — 有時候我們需要嘗試才能找出喜歡什麼 —— 但我認為我們可以更加慎重籌劃。嘗試去發現並不斷優化形成你對自己人生職業目標的堅定信念。
The framework I』ve found most useful for helping people think through career decisions is to consider both impact maximization and regret minimization—a decision that scores well on both is likely to be a good one.
我發現幫助人們思考職業決定的最有用的框架是：影響最大化和遺憾最小化 。
一個決定，如果兩個條件都滿足，可能是一個好的決定。
On Achieving Success
如何實現成功
The way to get things done in the world is a combination of focus, personal connections, and self-belief.
在這個世界上，實現目標的方法是三者的結合：聚焦，個人網路和自信。
You should work really hard. You should be willing to do whatever it takes; society doesn』t owe you success. Be a doer, not a talker – history belongs to the doers.
你應該努力工作。你應該去做任何達到目標必須的事情; 社會不欠你的成功。讓自己成為一個行動者，而不是一個高談闊論者 — 歷史屬於行動者。
Whatever you choose to do, you』ve got to believe in your own capacity to succeed. People will doubt you and think your goals are impossible or dumb, but you have to stand behind your convictions.
無論你選擇做什麼，你都必須相信自己有能力成功。人們會懷疑你，認為你的目標是不可能或愚蠢的，但你必須堅信你的信念。
It』s ok to start off motivated by wanting to make a lot of money or wanting fame and glory. At some point though, most people need to find a deeper mission to keep pushing forward.
開始的時候， 你的動力可能是因為錢或想要的名望和榮耀。但到了某些時候，大多數人需要找到一個更深的使命才能繼續前進。
The right way to think about your career is like compound interest; if you put in long hours at the start of your career and get a little bit better at what you do every day, you』re going to accomplish more than others. That builds up a compound effect that will extend throughout your entire career. Life is obviously unfair and you don』t know what will happen, but all else equal it becomes a major advantage.
思考你職業生涯的正確方式是複利思維；
如果你在職業生涯的開始的時候花了很長時間，並且每天都不斷進步，那麼你將比其他人做得更好。這將產生一種複利效果，使你整個職業生涯都因此受益。生活顯然是不公平的，你不知道會發生什麼，但如果其他方面都相當，這會成為你的一個主要優勢。
Enjoy your life when you』re young – it』s a true cliche that you only have your youth once – but work harder than most people think you should. I』ve come to believe that burnout isn』t so much associated with working too hard, but instead from things not working out. If you have momentum with whatever you』re working on, you』ll stay motivated and refreshed.
當你年輕時，享受你的生活 — 因為青春只有一次，這是陳詞濫調 — 但別忘了要比別人想像的更努力工作。我現在相信，倦怠不是因為為工作太辛苦的原因，而是工作沒有成果。如果你現在做的事情勢頭不錯，你會保持動力，並且精力充沛。
Learn to say 「yes」 to an amazing opportunity even if you』re not 100% sure how to do it or if you』re ready—it』s possible to learn a lot very quickly. A mistake a lot of people make is to compare themselves to very successful people today, instead of the version of that person from ten years ago, which probably looks a lot more familiar.
面對一個偉大機會的時候，學會說「Yes」，即使你不是100％確定怎麼做，或你是不是準備好了
— 你可以在短時間內學會很多。許多人所犯的錯誤是將自己與今天非常成功的人進行比較，而不是和他們十年前的那個版本比較，那樣看起來會更熟悉。
On Finding Your People
如何找到同類
You want to find your tribe – the types of people like you that you can imagine working with for the rest of your career. Within that, you want to find a small group of people whom you trust, and whose opinions you really respect.
你要找到你的部落 — 那些和你一樣類型的人，你可以想像在剩下的職業生涯里與他們一起工作。在那裡，你要找到一小群你信任的人，他們的意見，你真正尊重。
You should probably be willing to move. For whatever you』re interested in, there will be pockets of people around the world who are doing the best work, and it』s worth getting as close to them as possible.
你要願意移動。
不管你感興趣什麼，世界上總會有一群人正在做而且做的最好，你值得儘可能接近他們。
Help others for no reason at all. When you』re young, you tend to have a small network, and that limits your options. When you help people without any intention of ever getting benefit back, doors and new connections will open – this has been super important for me.
無理由的幫助別人。
當你年輕時，你的個人網路比較小，這限制了你的選擇。當你幫助人們而沒有任何意圖得到回報，門和新的連接將打開 — 這對我來說是非常非常重要的。
On Giving Up
關於放棄
When some people try something and it doesn』t work after a few weeks or months, they give up. I think that』s way too early to quit.
當一些人嘗試一件事情的時候，如果幾個星期或幾個月搞不定，他們就會放棄。我認為這樣的放棄太早了。
If people are saying that what you』re doing or what you』re making is bad, pay attention to that as feedback, but don』t let it get to you personally. It』s not a sign to give up, but instead to refine your approach.
如果人們說你做的事情不行的時候，你應該把它當做反饋意見，但不要受它的影響。這不是一個放棄的標誌，你要做到的是改進你的方法。
It』s hard to say when is the right time to give up, but I think it』s usually when you yourself feel you have run out of ideas, and you don』t see any pathways to keep experimenting further.
很難說什麼時候是放棄的正確時間，但我認為通常是當你自己覺得你的想法已經用完，你沒有看到任何途徑可以繼續進行嘗試。
If you think you』ve reached that point, by all means walk away. There』s no glory in dragging things out if you』re truly out of ideas. Shut down what you』re working on, decompress, and try something new a few months later.
如果你認為你已經達到這一步，那就應該走開了。如果你真的用盡了想法，繼續拖延不會給你帶來榮耀。結束你正在做的工作，放鬆一下，並在幾個月後嘗試新的東西。
If you』re working on the right thing it will probably be really hard. It will likely take a long time and you』ll face a lot of criticism. The super successful people I know spent a very long time pursuing their ideas, way past when most people would have given up. Keep pushing forward.
如果你正在做正確的事情，它也可能會真的很難。這可能需要很長時間，並且你會面臨很多質疑。我知道的那些超級成功的人花了很長的時間去追求他們的想法，換了大多數人早就放棄了。所以，堅持向前。
On Taking Risk
關於冒險
Most people are wrong about what is risky and what is not, and so they don』t take nearly enough risk. Take more risks, especially when you』re early on in your career; being young and unknown is actually a major advantage because you have very little to lose.
對於什麼是有風險的而什麼不是，大多數人的認知都是錯誤的， 所以他們幾乎不承擔足夠的風險。一定要承擔更多的風險，特別是當你還在職業生涯早期的時候；
年輕和未知實際上是一個重要的競爭優勢，因為你不會失去什麼東西。
Don』t let fear of failing stop you from taking risks. That is a risk itself, because you will miss out by not acting.
不要讓失敗的恐懼阻止你冒險。這本身就是一個風險，因為你會由於不行動而錯過機會。
If you do fail or end up in a crisis, you』ll probably be OK. The more crises I』ve faced in my life, the less scary each subsequent one has become. I』m secure in the knowledge I』ve made it through disaster before and I believe I will again.
如果你確實失敗了或最終陷入危機，不要擔心有太大問題。我在生活中遇到的危機越多，下一次遇到危機的時候就越沒那麼害怕。我現在安全，是因為以前從危難中學到的知識，我相信以後也會是這樣。
If you do something new and ambitious, be ready for doomsayers. Doing new things is hard both because you have to figure out how to do it and you have to deal with a constant barrage of negativity.
如果你做的是新的雄心勃勃的事情，準備應對那些末日預言家。做新事是很困難的，因為你既要弄清楚如何做到，同時還必須面對持續的負面嘲諷。
Simple tip – don』t be afraid to ask for what you want. If you』re doing something ambitious, you』ll be told 「no」, a lot. Sometimes though, people will give you what you want. Those times will outweigh the pains of being rejected, so be aggressive.
一個簡單的提示 — 不要害怕索取你想要的東西。如果你做的是有抱負的事情，大部分的時候，你會被拒絕。但有的時候，人們會給你你想要的。那個時候，所有被拒絕的痛苦都是值得的，所以要保持進取姿態。
On Money
關於金錢
When I was young, I had a misconception that you get rich from making a nice salary. As I got older, I realized the way to get rich was by owning things that go up in value—i.e., equity.
當我年輕時，我有一個誤解，我以為掙個不錯的薪水會讓我變得富有。
隨著我變老，我意識到致富的方式是擁有價值上漲的東西—比如，股份。
I think that time is the major arbitrage opportunity still left in the market. People are increasingly focused on the short-term, so there are lots of untouched opportunities that just take a long time to mature. I』ve found that these types of bets have helped me generate the most value and wealth.
我認為，
時間是市場上仍然存在的主要的套利機會。
人們越來越專註於短期，所以有很多沒人碰的機會，只是需要很長時間才能成熟。我發現這些類型的賭注幫助我產生了最大的價值和財富。
One way to become an owner is to start a company, and there especially, it』s best to take a long-term approach. If you pick the right thing and devote yourself to growing it over the long run, you can make far more money than with a bunch of short-term payouts along the way. If you aim big, you only have to be right once. Start early in your career, and if you fail, keep trying.
成為財富所有者的一種方式是創辦一家公司，尤其是最好採取長期的方法。如果你選擇正確的東西，並投身於此，面向長期增長，你可以比一路上遇到的短期機會賺多的多錢。如果你的目標很大，你只需要一次正確就夠了。趁著你的職業生涯早期就開始，如果你失敗了，繼續嘗試。
As a general note, I think you should look for opportunities where if they work out, you will 10x your net worth. And if you have the option to invest in advancing yourself, do it — it』s usually better than saving the money.
一般而言，我認為你應該尋找這樣的機會，如果它們成功了，你的凈財富能翻上10倍。如果你有這樣的投資機會，抓住它 — 這通常比儲蓄更好
On Thinking About The Future
關於思考未來
Strong opinions about the future are valuable. Here again, the most interesting and successful people I know seem to all have strong ideas about what the future will look like. They are willing to be convinced with new data that they are wrong, but the bar for that is fairly high.
對未來抱有強烈願景是有價值的。我再說一下，我所知道的最有趣和最成功的人似乎都對未來會是什麼樣子抱有強烈的想法。如果有新的數據出現，他們願意相信他們是錯誤的，但說服的門檻很高。
I don』t agree with the idea that the future is unknowable. There』s a lot you can have conviction about that will happen or that you can make come true.
我不同意未來不可知的想法。
有很多事情，你可以有信心它們會發生，或者你可以讓它們發生。
Have strong opinions on where you want to go and then be flexible on the details.
對你想去的地方，堅定信念，而對於路上的細節，保持靈活。
本文授權轉載自微信公眾號ThinkingSlow緩慢思考(ID:ThinkingSlow)
封面圖 by Polyester Studio
本周末的會員語音
本周末的會員語音我會跟大家分享「職場第一年最重要的三方面」，分別為心態調整、自我成長和人際交往。從學生到職場人的身份轉變，會暴露我們在學生時期一些問題。發現自己剛開始工作什麼都做不好怎麼辦？一離開學校就不知道學什麼該怎麼解決？
如何和老闆溝通？如何與同事交往？如何快速融入辦公室的氛圍？很多人即使進入職場幾年後都不知道如何解決這些問題，如果你能在步入職場初期就能針對這些問題有所改變，這不僅會幫助你在職業初期培養良好的習慣，更會讓你在往後的職業生涯中走得更遠。
今天你做了什麼改變
上周的會員語音我為大家帶來了「理財規劃」專題，如何開始理財？有哪些十分有用的理財理念？理財會對職業發展產生怎樣深遠的影響？下面是語音反饋：
@會員 小紅帽
感謝彭縈姐的分享。關於投資理財上的時間分配的2/8原則，根據自己當下收入水平的區間段，提醒了自己當下精力應該放在哪兒。理財不在於你錢多少，自己已經養成記賬習慣，每月梳理自己開銷，知道自己的錢都去哪兒了，日常生活買買中，也有意識的讓自己消費的都是值得的，大筆開銷是投資自己，長期來看是給自己增值。收益越大風險越大，不懂的東西不要碰，有時候懂得避險更重要。比如最近P2P每天都在暴雷，自己也投了，選擇的是大平台、相對合理的預期收益。
投資理財是需要不斷學習與實踐的，有時都要交學費，越早理財所承擔風險相對低。自己一年多學習下來的感受，在你沒有足夠原始積累的時候，要潛心去學習投資的思維，對自己生活的每次重要選擇的時候，就如同投入一筆大的交易，需要用長期的眼關去看，同時克服人性的弱點。保險應該是很多容易忽視的一部分，其實這一份相對更重的，朋友圈經常會看到各種眾籌治病，反應的保險的缺失，導致你抗風險的能力很低。如果你在能力範圍內，沒夠買足額的保險，可能一場大病足夠導致窮於你。
終身學習，去踐行。
@會員 willzeng
彭縈老師，您好，仔細聽完這次的語音，我有如下感受:要想掙更多的錢和獲得更多的利潤，我們必須不斷創造出滿足人們所需求的東西，這也是我們得以生存下來的掙錢的能力。隨著年齡增長，負擔加重，平時生活的開銷越來越大，同時也很焦慮未來的變化，反思自己收入增長緩慢的原因，一方面是過於依賴單方面的收入，另一方面也沒有明確的理財規劃。【你不理財，財不理你】的道理早有耳聞，但是卻沒有真正堅持落實下來。
最近的一段時間開始學習記賬，通過對收入支出的分析，發現很多問題，比如有很多日常的消費是完全可以避免的。關於投資方面我屬於小白，聽了彭縈老師關於怎樣合理進行投資的語音和之前輝哥關於股票投資的分享後，我已經購買了幾本推薦的投資方面的書，希望通過學習之後在後面的不斷反饋中與同學們一起成長。謝謝彭縈老師和輝哥。
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