GOLD: THE CHINESE HAVE CHANGED THE WAY THEY LOOK AT IT

At the risk of alienating all my readers who view gold as a barbarous relic, I am chancing one more post to expand on my ideas regarding the correlation between gold and the Chinese currency.

冒著讓所有那些認為黃金為「史前遺迹」的讀者離我遠去的風險，再寫一篇博文進一步闡述一下我對金價與人民幣匯率之間關聯關係的看法。

Although some readers got a chuckle out of my articleGold: Come』on - Admit it - You want to own it, there was also a bunch of pushback on the idea that the Chinese were pegging the price of gold in CNY.

儘管有些讀者對我前一篇關於黃金的博文「得了，還是招了吧，你就是想要黃金」忍俊不已，但也有很多反對的聲音質疑文章中所揭示的中國人將金價與人民幣匯率進行鎖定的現象。

「Why would they do that?」

「他們為啥要這麼做？」

「To what end?」

「這麼做圖個啥？」

And I guess I purposely left out the details, instead I choose to focus on the correlations and leave it to readers to draw their own conclusions.

我覺得自己是有意識地忽略這些細節，而是選擇將注意力放在金價與人民幣的關聯關係上，並且讓讀者得出自己的答案。

And before I give you my theories as to the reasons behind the relationship, let』s have a look at how the correlation has fared since I wrote about it last.

在我奉上對這兩者之間關聯關係的解讀之前，先看一下上一篇博文發表後這種關聯關係是如何演變的。下圖中橙線為美元/人民幣倒置後的走勢，白線為金價走勢。

Still trading on top of one another. In fact, it』s almost tick for tick.

可以看到，這兩者的走勢仍緊緊相隨。實際上，幾乎是亦步亦趨。

Speaking of tick for tick, the great twitter account of@TickByTick_Teamcreated a terrific chart that demonstrated the collapse in the volatility of gold priced in CNY. I have recreated using the 90-day historical volatility, but it doesn』t matter which time frame you use - the end result is that gold priced in CNY has becomea lot less volatile.

說到走勢亦步亦趨的現象，有一個挺不錯的推特賬號@TickByTick_Team做了一張漂亮的圖顯示出人民幣金價的波動率遭遇了崩潰式下跌，我也照貓畫虎做了一張圖，用的是90天歷史波動率，但用什麼時間段進行衡量並不重要，最後的結果是人民幣金價的波動率大幅降低了。見下圖，黃線為90天歷史波動率，白線為人民幣金價走勢。

I am sympathetic to the idea that China would never bother to peg the price of gold. Pegging implies that you would be willing to bothbuy and sell itto keep it at a certain level. I don』t believe that China has any interest in selling even the tiniest little bit of their gold reserves to keep it at a certain price.

我贊同中國根本不會將金價與人民幣匯率掛鉤的觀點。掛鉤就意味著你會願意通過買賣交易以穩保某個水平，我不認為中國會願意賣掉其哪怕一點點的黃金儲備以確保某個價位不失。

But I do believe the Chinese are managing the price of gold priced in CNY. They have in essence provided a floor at which they are willing to accumulate gold. They don』t bother selling it when it rises above that level, but when the gold price descends into their buy zone, they are there with stacks of blues.

但我確實相信中國人正在對人民幣計價的金價進行干預，他們實際上確定了一個願意買入黃金的價格底線。他們不會在金價升破該價位之時不辭辛勞賣掉黃金，但當金價跌入設定的買入價時會手持大把買單出現。

So why is the price of gold going down recently? Well, if we assume that China is one of the biggest buyers of gold, when their currency depreciates, their bid for gold priced in US dollars falls.

那麼為什麼金價最近出現了下跌？好吧，如果假設中國是黃金最大的買家之一，當人民幣貶值之時，他們買入美元標價的黃金的數量在減少。

The price of gold has not been pegged in CNY, it is merely being bought in that currency. The Chinese have fundamentally changed the way they look at gold. Instead of pricing it in US dollars, they are pricing it in CNY. And they are bid. For size.

金價並沒有與人民幣的匯率掛鉤，只是買入黃金用的是人民幣而已。中國人從根本上改變了他們對黃金的看法。中國人不是用美元而是用人民幣對金價進行標價，然後下單買進。

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