美國風投機構全面點評特朗普總統任期表現

原標題：美國風投機構全面點評特朗普總統任期表現

來源 ：iCover

作者：道格-凱西 (Doug Casey)，美國著名風險投資智庫凱西研究 (Casey Research) 創始人、作家、風險投資人

譯者 | 辰陽、四海巡使

美國風險投資智庫凱西研究(Casey Research) 創始人道格-凱西(Doug Casey)，繼成功預言特朗普贏得2016年總統大選後，再次通過點評和分析特朗普迄今為止的總統表現，並對2020年大選前的美國政局作出較悲觀的預測和展望。

Q: 訪談者

A: 受訪者，道格-凱西 (Doug Casey)，美國著名風險投資智庫凱西研究 (Casey Research) 創始人、作家、風險投資人

Q1: Doug, what do you think of Trump"s presidency so far? What"s he done well? 道格，您如何評價特朗普當選總統後迄今為止的表現？他在哪些方面值得稱道？

A1:Let me start by saying that I』m very pleased that Trump was elected because, first and foremost, he』s not Hillary. In addition, he』s never been in political office. So he lacks some of the vices common to professional politicians. Even better, all members of the Deep State reflexively hate him. That』s a good thing, because there』s some truth to the meme 「the enemy of my enemy just might be my friend.」

首先，我覺得特朗普能在總統選舉中勝出，這件事就令我十分高興。因為，他跟希拉里完全是兩路人。此外，他毫無從政經驗，這也使得他並未沾染上那些政客們常有的惡習。進而來講，所有的「深暗勢力」（Deep State）都對他恨得咬牙切齒。這件事也不一定是壞事，所謂「敵人的敵人就是朋友」這句諺語還是有幾分道理的。

I also like some of the things Trump』s done since he』s been in office— besides driving liberals and Deep Staters insane. He』s done some deregulating— not nearly enough, but he』s moved in the right direction. Of course, he did this not because he understands Austrian economics, but simply because he』s a businessman. He has some personal experience with the destructiveness of regulations.

對特朗普上台後的一系列舉措，我個人還是比較欣賞的。因為，他不僅把那些 「(假)自由派」 跟 「深暗勢力」 都逼得抓狂，也還在不斷實施那些旨在減少政府監管的政策。雖然這些舉措或許還不夠，可他的確已經走在了正道上。當然，他這麼做並非因為其對 「奧地利經濟學派」 (Austrian economics) 有著深刻理解，而與他商人本性有關。作為商人，他對政府監管過度而帶來的種種麻煩有著不少切身體會。

Of course, he hasn』t done nearly enough yet. He』s just mowing the grass and trimming the hedges. He should be pulling these things out by their roots and sowing Agent Orange where they grew. The same goes for taxes. His tax cut was helpful, but not drastic. And there hasn』t been a cut in spending. In fact he』s significantly increasing spending. So the tax cut is mainly cosmetic.

當然，特朗普目前做的還遠遠不夠。他只是把那些他認為繁文縟節和不合理的政策撇到一邊，就好比他只在除去草坪上的雜草、修剪籬笆上的樹籬，而不是把這些雜草和樹籬連根拔起，並在它們生長的地方撒上「橙劑」（譯者註：Agent Orange，一種已被禁用的劇毒化學物質，美軍曾在越南戰爭中使用過）。稅收政策也是如此。特朗普的減稅政策是有用的，但並不徹底。此外，他並未減少政府開支，實際上反而在不斷增加政府支出（譯者註：比如加大軍費開支，籌劃建立「太空部隊」等）。因此，所謂的「減稅」只是個表面現象。

Q2: And where has he fallen short or failed? 特朗普有哪些地方您認為做得不盡人意？

A2: A number of ways, starting with running a trillion-dollar deficit. Where does he think that money』s going to come from? The Russians and the Chinese aren』t buying US debt anymore. Foreigners are looking to offload US paper.

當然，特朗普做的不夠好的地方還有很多。首先，就是美國政府的財政赤字現已達數十萬億美元。他認為從哪裡去籌措美元？如今，俄羅斯和中國已不再購買美國國債，很多外國投資也正在計劃找時機拋售手中持有的美債。

Americans aren』t buying much, either. The only real alternative is to sell it to the Federal Reserve. Which is a real problem when the Federal Reserve is not only trying to deleverage, but has to refinance hundreds of billions of short-term paper coming due. Recall that almost all the $20 trillion of Treasury debt is very short term. Interest rates are going to rise, a lot. And so will the interest portion of the government deficit. Interest payments alone will be a trillion a year by the end of Trump』s second term—assuming he gets one.

同樣，美國的內需也不是很強勁。唯一一個真正有效的替代方法則是向美聯儲 (Federal Reserve) 借錢 「續命」。這樣的話，就會使美聯儲在試圖「降槓桿」 (deleverage) 的同時，也會為那些即將到期的數千億美元短期債券尋求「再融資」 (refinance)。回過頭想想，因為價值20萬億美元的國債都是短期的，這也使得借貸利率大幅被提高，從而導致美國政府要為這些財政赤字支付更多利息。這樣的話，假設特朗普成功連任，那麼在他第二個任期結束時 (2025年初)，美國政府每年就要為財政赤字支付近萬億美元的利息。

Trump also— like all red-blooded Americans— loves the military. So, he』s adding to the already bloated military budget. It』s ridiculous, dangerous, and provocative. The United States already spends more than the next 10 or 12 biggest nations in the world put together. And most of that money is wasted and misallocated. It』s being spent on dinosaur technologies. What he』s doing there is very foolish. It』s accelerating the looming bankruptcy of the Government. And of course the Government will drag the country down with it.

其次，與那些熱血沸騰的美國人一樣，特朗普也十分熱衷軍事。因此，他還在源源不斷地提升原已臃腫不堪的軍費預算。對外界而言，這非常荒謬、危險，且具有挑釁意味。美國軍費開支甚至超過了在世界上那些軍費預算排名靠前的國家的總和，即使這些國家的軍費預算仍排在世界前10或前12名。大部分的軍費不是被浪費就是被不合理地分配，比如拿軍費去研究那些所謂「屠龍術」 (dinosaur technologies)。在軍費問題上，特朗普表現太過愚蠢，這也使得美國政府在破產的道路上加速前進。最終，美國政府的破產會拖累這個國家。

He』s foolishly antagonizing the Russians by placing troops in the Baltics. He』s doing the same with China by sending ships to the South China Sea, which is their equivalent of the Gulf of Mexico.

此外，他還愚蠢地把俄羅斯當成敵人，並在波羅的海地區部署軍隊。他對中國也在做同樣的事情，即向中國南海調派艦隊，此舉無異於他國派遣艦隊到墨西哥灣。

But my biggest problem with Trump is that he has no philosophical core. He』s not by any means a libertarian. He』s a pragmatist and an authoritarian. He』ll do whatever seems like a good idea at the time. He』s got no background in or understanding of economics or history. I think it』s true that, as his critics say, he hasn』t read a book in 50 years. He goes strictly on gut instinct.

但是，我對特朗普最大的擔憂在於他並沒有堅定的價值觀。他不是 「自由意志主義」 (libertarianism) 的擁躉，他只是奉行 「實用主義」 和 「威權主義」。因此，他會在恰好的時間做任何看上去很完美的事。此外，他對於經濟和歷史知之甚少。對於特朗普的批評者的指責，我也非常贊同，即他已經有50年的時間沒接受過理論培訓了，他現在做事全憑直覺。

On the bright side, some of his instincts are pretty good. For instance, he can see that the culture of the US has changed radically over the last 30 years. And if mass immigration from backward countries continues this place will soon be unrecognizable. These people— unlike immigrants up to the 1950s— have values that are actually antithetical to those that made America what it is.

當然，從好的方面來看，他的一些直覺也是值得稱道的。例如，他明確指出美國文化在過去三十年里發生了巨大變化；若任由那些來自「後發國家」 (backward countries) 且數量巨大的移民繼續湧入美國，美國會很快變得更加面目全非。如今的移民，其奉行的價值觀與「美國精神」完全對立，這點與那些上世紀五十年代的移民是完全不同的。

Q3: Yeah, Trump doesn"t follow any sort of playbook. So, what do you think about what he"s accomplished with North Korea and Russia? 的確，特朗普做事完全沒有章法。那麼，您認為他在與朝鮮和俄羅斯領導人的會面中獲得了什麼成就？

A3: I think he needs to be complimented for reaching out to baby Kim and establishing a personal relationship with him. It』s very interesting, and highly disturbing, that the Deep State called this outreach treasonous and dangerous. It shows how insane these Beltway creatures have become.

我覺得，對與金正恩主動建立私交關係這件事，特朗普是需要被肯定的。這件事雖有趣，但也使人惴惴不安。特朗普與金正恩的會面，在 「深暗勢力」 看來是堪比叛國，又有著極大的危險性。這點也表現出，特朗普令這些久居華盛頓的王公貴族們十分抓狂。

I mean it』s a good idea for him to be personally friendly with the head of an antagonistic power. It reduces the chance of war. That』s absolutely true for what he』s doing with Putin as well. Trump is to be congratulated for disregarding the media, the talking heads, academics, and State Department bureaucrats. Horrible people, captured by bad ideas. I』ve read things that these morons have written. They』re saying he gave away the store. They』re crazy. They』re proof there actually is a clinical condition called TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome.

與對立國家的領導人建立友誼，我認為特朗普這事是做對了。因為這樣能降低爆發戰爭的可能性，而同樣的道理也適用於特朗普與普京會面這件事。因此，我也十分贊同特朗普與這兩人的會面，而這兩次會面也是建立在特朗普無視媒體、意見領袖、學者以及國務院官僚們阻撓的基礎上。爛人往往會被條條框框所羈絆，根本提供不出什麼有價值的建議。我也讀過這些白痴寫的東西，他們認為特朗普對朝鮮和俄羅斯的讓步太多了。這些人才是真的瘋了，他們的臨床癥狀應被稱為 「特朗普發狂綜合征」 (TDS)。

For one thing Russia is a complete non-threat. It』s a gas station with an attached gun store in the middle of a wheat field. Their economy is smaller than Florida』s. They』re not a threat to anybody— alcoholism is rampant, the Russian population is in collapse, and they』re being undermined by massive Mohammedan migration from the Stans to Russia』s south. Sure, they have nuclear weapons. So, it』s a good idea to be friendly with the Russians, if only because of that. But Putin and Russia are not a danger in any way whatsoever. Including a few guys spending $100,000 on Facebook to influence the 2016 election.

還有一點需要注意，我認為俄羅斯是個完全構不成威脅的國家。俄羅斯就好比一個在廣袤麥田中的加油站，裡面還有一個槍支專賣店。俄羅斯的經濟規模甚至遠不如佛羅里達一個州。此外，因為 「酗酒文化」、人口總數銳減以及從中亞來的穆斯林移民大量湧入等緣故，俄羅斯對任何國家都無法構成威脅。當然，俄羅斯擁有核武器。因此，還是要與俄羅斯為善吧，哪怕只因為這唯一的一個原因。但在任何方面，普京和俄羅斯都不會對外產生威脅，即使那些在社交網站 「臉書」(Facebook) 上花了10萬美元從而試圖去引導2016年美國總統選舉走向的俄羅斯人（譯者註：據「臉書」官方稱，一家俄羅斯公司 「troll farm」 在2016年大選期間從該社交網站購買了10萬美元的廣告，但相比整個選舉季各方總計超過10億美元的政治宣傳廣告投入，是極其微不足道的）。

Q4: What about Trump"s suggestion that other European countries should kick in more for defense spending? 您如何看待特朗普建議其它歐洲國家增加國防開支？

A4: It』s one of Trump』s real problems. The U.S. is already bankrupt and sinking deeper into debt.He shouldn』t be asking Europeans to raise defense spending. That』s asking for trouble. It』s going to make things worse for everybody. Why, with their history of constant wars, should Europe be encouraged to become more militaristic? Who are they trying to defend themselves against? Not the Russians. They aren』t going to attack. Nobody』s going to attack Europe, including the Chinese.

這是也是特朗普真正的問題之一。美國政府已經破產，且在債務泥沼中越陷越深。他壓根不應該要求歐洲國家在國防預算上增加開支。這是自找麻煩，這會使得所有情況變得更糟。歐洲國家在歷史上曾經戰火接連不斷，那麼應該鼓勵歐洲傾向 「軍國主義」 嗎？歐洲應該防範哪些國家的攻擊？不是俄羅斯，他們不會攻擊歐洲。其實，沒有國家會主動攻擊歐洲，包括中國。

These aren』t the days of the Roman Empire where warfare was a profitable venture, because after you won you got to enslave the men and steal the women, gold, cattle, and artwork, and take everything back to Rome. Economies don』t work that way anymore. Today, warfare is strictly a money-losing and capital-destroying enterprise. So, it』s foolish for Trump to ask them to raise defense spending. It』s counterproductive. It will only provoke the Russians and Chinese.

如今，已不再是羅馬帝國時代。在那個時候，戰爭可能是有利可圖的。因為在贏得勝利後，你可以奴役男人甚至搶奪女人、黃金、牲畜以及藝術品，甚至還能把所有東西一股腦搬回羅馬。然而，在當今社會，經濟運作方式跟那個時候已有天壤之別。在今天，嚴格意義上來說，戰爭是一個賠錢和毀滅資本的生意。因此，特朗普要求歐洲增加國防預算的行為是非常愚蠢且適得其反的。這樣，反而只會激怒俄羅斯和中國。

Instead, we should be talking about disbanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It serves no useful purpose. It should have been disbanded 25 years ago. NATO is proof of how it』s almost impossible to get rid of a bureaucracy— no matter how worthless and dysfunctional.

相反，我們應討論解散 「北大西洋公約組織」 (北約，NATO)。這個本應在25年前 (蘇聯解體後) 就解散的組織，已毫無利用價值。即使 「北約」 是多麼的無用和無效，這個組織的存在，只能證明官僚制度是根深蒂固的。

This is a huge mistake on his part. But my biggest worry with Trump is the economy. The US is long overdue for a very serious collapse. And the next crash will be much worse than what we had in 2008. And I』m afraid it will happen on his watch.

對於特朗普來說，這是一個巨大的錯誤。但是，我對於特朗普最大的憂慮仍在經濟。照理說，美國早應經歷一次非常嚴重的經濟崩潰，卻遲遲未發生。這樣的話，即將到來的下一次危機的惡劣程度會遠甚於2008年金融危機。我非常擔心，這次經濟崩潰會在特朗普任期內到來。

Q5: What could happen if the economy collapses while Trump"s in office? 如果經濟在特朗普任期內崩潰，會造成什麼後果？

A5:It would play right into the hands of the Democratic Party, which has become nothing more than a cesspool, dominated by Progressives, and worse. They』ll put up a hard left candidate against him in two years. And that person is likely to win if the economy collapses. The average American will— incorrectly— see Trump as representing the free market. So they』ll vote for someone who』s anti free market. Someone who promises them lots of other people』s money. We might get a radical leftist. After all, we』ve seen Americans not only elect,but re-elect Obama. The American public is capable of almost anything.

這個結果正是民主黨樂見其成的。在我眼中，現在的民主黨是被 「(假)進步主義」 分子把持著，無異於一個污水池。在兩年內，民主黨一定會推出一個強硬的「白左」領導人來參加下一屆總統選舉。一旦經濟崩潰，那麼民主黨肯定會贏得大選。在那樣的時代背景下，普通美國人會錯誤的認為特朗普代表 「自由市場」，自由市場導致經濟崩潰。這樣的話，他們則會投票給一個反自由市場的候選人，而這個人也會許諾把別人的錢裝入這些選民的口袋。我們很有可能選出激進的左派當選下任美國總統。畢竟，我們已經見證了奧巴馬被選為總統，還成功連任。美國民眾什麼事都能幹得出來。

America has bifurcated into the red counties and the blue counties. And the people who live in red counties hate people from blue counties, and vice versa. The country is even more divided than it was in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

美國已分裂為 「紅縣」 (傳統上支持共和黨) 和 「藍縣」 (傳統上支持民主黨) 兩個陣營，並且互懟互掐。與上世紀60年代末與70年代初相比，如今的美國更加分裂。

So, we』re up for a real political storm. It』s especially serious when you』ve got a guy like Trump in office who』s got a strong-man mentality. Trump— notwithstanding some of his good instincts— is capable of almost anything because he』s a statist and authoritarian at heart. He』s our version of Erdogan and Putin. It』s starting to look like the 』30s, which was replete with strongman leaders— Roosevelt, Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Franco… He』s trying to run the United States like a private company. So, it』s a dangerous situation… but it』s still better than if a Democrat was in office.

因此，我們需要為一場真正的政治風暴做好準備。尤其是當類似於特朗普這樣的 「政治強人」 當總統時，情勢將更為嚴峻。儘管特朗普的直覺還不錯，但他幾乎什麼事情都敢做，因為他本質上是一個集權主義者和威權主義者。現在看起來更像是上世紀30年代，那時的世界充滿了 「鐵腕領袖」，羅斯福、希特勒、墨索里尼、斯大林、佛朗哥。特朗普更傾向於把美國當成一個私營企業來管理，這是非常危險的。但是，在我看來，即使這樣，也比民主黨執政來得好。

Q6: Doug, you predicted that Trump would win the election long before most people even thought he had a chance.Now, I"m not asking you predict if Trump will win a second term or not. But how do you think Trump might position himself for reelection? 在大部分人不看好特朗普能獲選前，您就預測特朗普能贏得總統選舉。現在，並不要您預測特朗普是否會連任，而是看看特朗普會在下次選舉中如何給自己定位？

A6:He can』t do anything to make the anti-Trumpers like him. And he can apparently do no wrong with the people who like him.I just hope that he doesn』t stumble into a trade war. Or worse, a shooting war.

特朗普無法讓任何的反對者變得喜歡他。因此，很明顯，他能做的只是不做出任何辜負他支持者的事情。我希望他不要讓美國陷入貿易戰的漩渦，甚至比貿易戰更糟，那就是陷入一場真正的戰爭。

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