牛X哄哄的區塊鏈，到底如何改變世界？

幣橙網

一個分散式、社區協作的區塊鏈項目評測社區

【幣橙海外】聚焦於篩選與翻譯海外區塊鏈行業的新聞報道、評論、評測報告等有價值信息，幫助大家以國際化的視野了解區塊鏈項目，成為幣圈「老韭菜」。

說明：本文為幣橙網社區齋主獨立翻譯而成， 只作為傳遞信息之用， 不作為投資依據(翻譯時有刪改)

原文地址：https://www.economist.com/special-report/2018/06/30/blockchain-technology-may-offer-a-way-to-re-decentralise-the-internet

前言：《經濟學人》（英語：The Economist）是一份英國的英文新聞周報，它在1843年9月由詹姆斯·威爾遜創辦。是一本涉及全球政治、經濟、文化、科技等多方面事務的綜合性新聞評論刊物，著重於對這些議題提供深入的分析和評論。它面向教育程度較高的人群，讀者中包括諸多具有影響力的高管和決策者。本文選自經濟學人2018年6月30日發布的特別報告。

Blockchain technology may offer a way to re-decentralise the internet

區塊鏈技術或可使互聯網去中心化

WHAT MASS IS for Catholics, technology conferences are for geeks. Speakers at these gatherings often sound like preachers, promising a dazzling future. So it was at a blockchain conference in Berlin in March, organised by Blockstack, a startup. The enthusiasm on display echoed that of gatherings in the mid-1990s. Some speakers quoted early cyber-gurus, such as the late John Perry Barlow, author of 「Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace」, and Sir Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the original web, now known as Web 1.0.

區塊鏈峰會之於技術宅們，就如同禮拜之於信徒們一般。會上的發言人如同傳道般宣講，描繪著他們口中華彩的未來。而這正是由初創企業Blockstack承辦的一次區塊鏈峰會上的景象。會上人們的熱情讓人不禁回想起上世紀九十年代中互聯網大潮的景象。一些發言人將早期科技領袖們，比如「網路空間獨立宣言」的作者John Perry Barlow，和互聯網發明者Tim Berners爵士的言論引為己用。

Such events seem to be heralding the birth of a new technology movement. Businesses and projects with odd names are already proliferating. They are easily confused with the many startups that have recently launched new crypto-currencies via an initial coin offering (ICO), a much-hyped form of crowdfunding. But though Blockstack and its ilk have done the same, their main aim is to use technology to make the online world a more decentralised place where people can do business 「on their own terms」, in the words of Ryan Shea, co-founder of Blockstack. Again, this sounds like the sort of thing geeks said in the 1990s. Will this generation succeed where the previous one failed?

這些峰會像是在引領著新的技術進步。有著牛X哄哄名字的企業和項目如雨後春筍般出現，甚至多到容易把企業的名字搞混。而且它們都在通過1C0，一種激進得多的眾籌手段，發行加密貨幣並且融資。不過，雖然Blockstack和其員工也在發幣，但是他們的主要目標卻是使互聯網世界更加去中心化，讓人們能夠——用聯合創始人Ryan Shea的話來說——「做能自己說了算的生意。」當然了，這聽起來很像上世界九十年代那幫技術宅的言論重現。那上代人們都在此失敗了，這代人還會成功嗎？

It will not be easy. To achieve their objective, they will have to overthrow an existing digital regime, called Web 2.0, that is still going strong. But it seems to be a feature of information technology that every few decades its most profitable part becomes commoditised. In the 1970s the microprocessor radically reduced the cost of computers. In the 1990s open-source software started to dethrone Windows, Microsoft』s then-dominant operating system. Now it is the turn of data, predicts Joel Monegro of Placeholder VC, a venture-capital firm set up to bet on the trend.

成功可能會有點難。想要達到這個目標，區塊鏈從業者們必須推翻現存的，仍然生機勃勃的Web 2.0體系。不過信息技術的明顯特徵之一就是，每隔幾十年，這個體系下最有價值的事物就會被商品化。例如上世紀七十年代的晶元，在商業化之後大幅減少了電腦的成本。在上世紀九十年代，開源操作系統開始挑戰Windows作為操作系統老大的地位。現在則輪到了數據。

You can check out, but you can never leave

可以退票，別想走人

Today online applications bundle user interface, code and data. Facebook, for instance, is best known for its website and app, but both are just the tip of a virtual iceberg: most of the software and all the information that keep the social network going lives in the firm』s cloud. Controlling those data gives these companies power. Users are free to move to another service, but they would lose all that information, including the links to their friends. By contrast, in the new world of Web 3.0 (or Web 3, for the truly initiated), interface, code and data are meant to be kept separate. This would allow power to flow back to users, who could decide which application can access their information. If they were not happy with one social network, they could easily switch to another. With such decentralised applications, or 「dapps」, users could also interact directly with other users without an information-hoarding intermediary in the middle.

現今的互聯網應用程序都把用戶界面，代碼和數據三元素結合在一起。以臉書為例，雖然它最為人所知的是其網站和app，但這只是臉書虛擬王國中的冰山一角。維持整個社交網路運轉的大部分軟體代碼和全部的數據都被儲存在公司的雲端存儲上，臉書能控制這些數據，從而擁有了對於用戶的權力。用戶可以選擇其它應用，但是也會失去在之前應用中產生的所有信息，包括與朋友的聯繫。而相比之下，在Web 3.0的新型體系下，界面，代碼和數據在創始之初就都是分開儲存的。這種設置能讓權力回歸於用戶，讓他們自行決定是否對某項應用開放數據。假設用戶對某一社交網路不滿意，他可以輕鬆地切換到另外一個網路。這樣的應用被稱之為「去中心化應用」，又名Dapps，而通過這種類型的應用，用戶可以直接與其他用戶進行互動，而無需通過第三方中介轉接。

To be sure, similar ideas have been tried before—and failed. Decentralised services, then called 「peer-to-peer」, briefly flourished in the late 1990s and early 2000s. They fizzled out mainly because no one knew how to build a robust decentralised database. That changed in 2009 with the invention of Bitcoin and the blockchain, the technology that underlies the crypto-currency. In essence, it is a ledger without a centralised administrator, maintained collectively by some of its users, called 「miners」, who also protect the blockchain and keep each other in check.

嚴格來講，曾經有類似的理念出現過，但失敗了。在上世紀九十年代晚期到本世紀初，出現過一種名為「點對點」的去中心化服務。而失敗的主要原因是無人知道如何建立一個足夠堅實，穩定的去中心化資料庫。而隨著2009年比特幣及支撐加密貨幣的區塊鏈技術的出現，這個問題有了答案。本質上講，區塊鏈就是一個沒有中心化管理員的賬本，而由一些名為「礦工」的用戶共同維護，互相制約，並保證區塊鏈網路的正常運行。

Though these days Bitcoin is mostly used to speculate, the crypto-currency can be seen as a dapp. The blockchain is a specialised database in the form of an immutable record of the transaction history of every bitcoin in circulation, which makes it clear who owns what. Holders of the currency use a piece of software called a 「wallet」, essentially a browser for the blockchain that carries the necessary cryptographic keys, to keep track of their assets and transfer money.

雖然目前來講比特幣主要用來投機，但其實它可以被視為一個dapp。比特幣的鏈上記錄著每個在流通中的比特幣的交易歷史，清楚地記載了哪些用戶擁有多少比特幣，形成了一個無法篡改的資料庫。持幣者使用名為「錢包」的軟體來保存對應鏈上數據的私鑰，追溯資產和互相轉賬。

Almost all Web 3.0 projects borrow heavily from Bitcoin and Ethereum, another blockchain that comes with 「smart contracts」, snippets of code that encapsulate business rules which are executed automatically if certain events occur. The most advanced projects focus on building the software infrastructure needed for dapps. Blockstack, arguably the most ambitious, is best seen as an operating system for such applications.

幾乎所有區塊鏈項目都從比特幣和以太坊之中借鑒許多。目前最前沿的項目都旨在建立用運行Dapps的基礎設施。Blockstack，可能是其中最雄心勃勃的競爭者，被視為最適合作為運行Dapps的操作系統。

Another field of much endeavour is decentralised digital storage. One such effort is Solid, a project led by Sir Tim, which features individual 「data pods」 where people keep their information (though it does not use blockchain technology). Another is the InterPlanetary File System (IPFS), the brainchild of Juan Benet, a co-founder of Protocol Labs, a startup.

另外一個受人矚目的領域是去中心化存儲。其中一個由Tim爵士領導的，名為Solid的項目，以提供可被用戶用來保存數據的「數據倉」為賣點（雖然這並用不到區塊鏈技術）。另外一個是IPFS，由Protocol Labs的聯合創始人Juan Benet創建。

Actual dapps are still few and far between. Graphite, which runs on Blockstack, is a bundle of online word-processor and other office applications, much like Google』s G-Suite. OpenBazaar, which relies on IPFS, is an alternative to Amazon. There is no central server to list what is on offer and to process transactions; instead, buyers and sellers download software that can settle things directly between them. The most popular dapp so far is a game called CryptoKitties, a marketplace for digital pets that lives on the Ethereum blockchain.

真實落地的dapps為數稀少，而且尚不完善。例如Graphite，一個提供在線文字處理器和其它辦公應用的dapps，與谷歌的G-suites非常相似，但在Blockstack開發的鏈上運行。或者OpenBazaar，一個區塊鏈版的亞馬遜，依靠IPFS原理運行，不需要一個中心化的伺服器來列出商品列表和處理交易。相對的，買家和賣家通過一個軟體來進行點對點的物品交易。現在最流行的dapps是一個名為加密貓的遊戲，可以讓人們在以太坊的鏈上撫養並交易電子寵物。

Building the right tools and applications will take time, but it is not the hardest part of decentralisation. Plenty of institutional innovation is also needed. If blockchains are to manage without central administrators, others will have to handle the task. These could be miners, but also developers and operators of 「nodes」, computers that keep copies of the blockchain. Web 3.0 projects are often like mini-economies, with a currency and a governance system. And project leaders, though often of a libertarian bent, have no choice but to become regulators.

開發合適的工具和應用程序確實需要時間，然而這並不是去中心化概念所面臨的最大難題。許多制度上的創新一樣十分必要。如果在區塊鏈的運行中剔除了中心化管理員的角色，那就要有其他人來處理相關的事務。礦工可以承擔這個責任，但是開發者和擁有鏈上數據的運行者（被稱為節點）也可以負責此事。區塊鏈項目很多時候都像一個個小型的經濟體，擁有自己的貨幣和治理體系。所以雖然區塊鏈開發者們大部分都偏向自由主義，但是他們必須承擔起作為管理者的重擔。

Previous efforts at decentralisation also foundered because the economics proved wanting, including those of the original internet. Historically, most protocols were developed by researchers and then maintained by non-profit organisations. But when the internet went mainstream and the money poured in, things got more complex. Commercial interests made finding consensus more difficult, and engineers preferred to join fast-growing internet companies building applications. Besides, incentives to adopt new protocols were lacking. So they became the poor relation of the internet, whereas applications thrived, explained Mr Monegro, the venture capitalist, in an influential blog post, 「Fat Protocols」, in 2016. With Web 3.0, he says, it will be the other way round.

之前關於去中心化的嘗試都失敗了，因為沒辦法建立起一個可行的經濟制度，包括最初的互聯網也是一樣。許多互聯網協議都是由學界開發，並由非營利性組織維護。但當互聯網走入千萬家，大量資本湧入之時，事情就變得複雜許多。商業互聯網使人們難以形成共識，而且開發者們都更偏好加入快速擴張的互聯網公司。另一方面，也缺乏一種使人們接受新型協議的激勵制度。正如風險投資人Monegro先生在一篇文章中所言：「以上這些因素造成了互聯網的落後特性，以及其上繁榮的應用程序生態。」他說：「但在區塊鏈下，情況就會完全不同。」

Again, Bitcoin pointed the way. Satoshi Nakamoto, its elusive inventor, also designed what is now called a 「crypto-economic model」. Miners are promised a monetary reward for their number-crunching work. Details aside, every ten minutes they participate in a lottery. The winner gets the right to update the blockchain and a small number of bitcoin. The reward gets paid out only after a dozen more lottery rounds, so it is in the winner』s interest to keep the system ticking.

比特幣在這方面又為我們指出了新方向。中本聰，身份不明的比特幣發明者，同時也設計了被稱為「加密貨幣經濟模型」的制度。礦工們在計算哈希值之後，可以獲得比特幣的獎勵。簡單來說，每十分鐘他們會參加一次搖獎。贏家會得到將數據寫入新區塊的權力和一些比特幣。但這個獎勵只會在十幾次新搖獎結束後到賬，所以讓這個系統正常運行符合所有礦工的利益。

Many Web 3.0 projects have developed their own crypto-economic models. The idea is to replace a centralised firm with a decentralised organisation, held together by incentives created by a token—a kind of 「crypto-co-operative」. All those involved, including the users, are meant to have a personal stake in the enterprise and get their fair share of the value created by a protocol.

也有許多區塊鏈項目開發了有自身特色的經濟模型。總體理念是以去中心化的組織取代中心化的公司，通過通證——一種激勵制度——使人們能夠協作，把用戶，項目方等各方面聯繫到一起，讓每個人都能從企業中得到屬於自己的一份，並分享項目帶來的價值。

Having kittens

養只貓吧

Some models are just intended to create a thriving marketplace, which in the case of CryptoKitties means you can buy, sell and breed them for monetary rewards. Other projects are more ambitious. Filecoin, too, is meant to be a marketplace where digital storage space will be exchanged for an eponymous digital token. To keep it flowing, the project, also founded by Protocol Labs, has resorted to much economic engineering. A complicated mechanism matches supply and demand.

一些經濟模型旨在建立一個活躍的交易市場，這也正是加密貓的特色所在，用戶可以在加密貓遊戲上進行買賣，並且把自己飼養的貓售賣出去。另外一些項目更加雄心勃勃。比如Filecoin計劃成為一個用戶可以在此上買賣存儲空間，以此獲得通證的交易市場。其項目方Protocol Labs為了保證這個項目的正常運行，花了很多精力來建立經濟制度，並設計了一個精密的機制來匹配供求雙方。

The most elaborate working crypto-economic model, however, is Steemit, an online forum which rewards its 1m or so registered users for posting contributions or rating content with real money in the form of steem, another sort of token. One type is liquid and can be cashed out using an exchange, which is meant to provide near-instant gratification and attract users. The other, called 「steem power」, is less easily convertible and supposed to keep members engaged: the more they own, the more weight their votes have.

然而目前在運營中的，最精巧的加密貨幣經濟模型是Steemit，一個有著100萬左右註冊用戶的論壇。在此之上，用戶可以通過其通證Steem給內容生產者打賞。Steem有著很好的流動性，可以通過交易所賣出變現，這也就意味著打賞是即時的，是個很吸引用戶的點。另外一種不太容易變現的回報被稱為Steem力，旨在提高用戶粘性。Steem力越高，用戶點贊的影響力越大。

If this sounds complicated, the bylaws of these crypto-co-operatives can be even more so. Once more, Bitcoin is a good place to start, although in this case as an example of how not to do it. When the mysterious Mr Nakamoto disappeared in late 2010, he did not leave behind any governance mechanism to speak of. Only a rudimentary one has been put in place since. Bitcoin developers agree to changes to the system』s software, which miners then implement in what amounts to a vote by computing power. But in recent years the two groups have been at loggerheads over how best to increase Bitcoin』s capacity. As a result, several factions have already created their own version of the currency. Ethereum is now running into similar problems.

如果上述內容聽起來很讓人頭大，那麼這些經濟模型中的細則就更難理解了。我們還可以用比特幣來舉例，不過這次是個反例。當神秘的中本聰與2010年末消失之後，他老人家並沒有留下任何關於比特幣治理機制的內容。目前只有一個十分初級的治理機制正在運行。比特幣的開發者已經決定修改比特幣的代碼，然後礦工通過算力來投票決定是否認可這些修改。但是近些年來，這兩派人在如何更好的為比特幣擴容這一問題上爭吵不休。結果就是，不同派別的人創立了他們自己理想中的「比特幣」。以太坊也面臨著類似的問題。

To avoid such difficulties, some newer blockchain projects are planning to hardcode their decision-making processes into the software in the form of smart contracts, a method known as 「on-chain governance」. Tezos, for instance, calls itself a 「self-amending ledger」. It allows anyone to propose changes which are then voted on. Winners get some tokens as a reward. Polkadot, for its part, is planning to write a 「constitution」 into its 「genesis block」, the anchor for every distributed ledger. Token-holders will be able to vote on changes to the system. But there will also be a 「constitutional court」 which can override decisions.

為了避免這類問題，一些新項目正計劃把項目的決策過程以智能合約的形式寫死在代碼里，或稱「鏈上治理」。以Tezos為例，它自稱「能自我修正的區塊鏈項目」可以允許任何人提交改革計劃，並且投票決定是否通過。如果通過，倡議者會得到一些通證作為獎勵。另一方面，Polkadot正計劃將其「憲法」寫進其創世區塊中。持幣人們可以為系統的改革投票，但也會有一個「憲法法庭」來做最終裁決。

Web 3.0 projects need to solve a number of practical problems before they can truly take off. Bitcoin, again, helps illustrate the hurdles. Chief among them is what crypto-buffs call 「scalability」, meaning that blockchains are currently not able to deal with large numbers of users. Bitcoin』s capacity is higher than it was, but the maximum is still about ten transactions per second, compared with the thousands that a centralised payment system can handle. Newer blockchains do better, but are unlikely ever to beat centralised databases.

在區塊鏈項目真正起飛之前，它需要解決許許多多實際問題。比特幣又一次給我們指明了方向和阻礙所在。其中最大的阻礙是被業內成為「可擴展性」的問題，意即目前來講區塊鏈無法處理高交易量的情形。比特幣的TPS相較之前高了一些，但最高也不過每秒十次，相比之下一些中心化的系統每秒可以處理幾千次交易。一些新項目在這點上的表現略好，但也無法同中心化的系統相提並論。

Moreover, many blockchain projects are themselves quite centralised. Almost all bitcoin mining happens in China and is controlled by a few firms (although the government is now trying to constrain the energy-hungry industry). And token ownership is often concentrated, too. Steemit, the online forum, is an extreme example: 90% of the 「steem power」 tokens are held by 2% of users, though the firm is trying to change this.

更重要的是，一些區塊鏈項目其實也十分中心化。幾乎所有的比特幣算力都集中在中國，被幾家大公司所控制（原文如此——譯註），但政府正在管控這個能源密集型行業。另一方面，通證的持倉量也相當集中化。以上文中的Steemit為例，它的持倉驚人的集中，90%的steem力被2%的用戶所持有。目前項目方正在對此進行改革。

「Blockchain is a ten-year-old technology. But where are all the applications?」 asks Tim O』Reilly, who pushed peer-to-peer and coined the term 「Web 2.0」 Still, he does not rule out a sudden breakthrough that might cut the 「blockchain』s Gordian knot」 and make such ledgers more scalable, for instance. Even Facebook seems to see that as a possibility: last month it created a blockchain unit. It is also said to be interested in taking over one of the blockchain projects. If such a breakthrough were to happen, successful dapps might come in unfamiliar shapes. 「It is easier for new technology paradigms to win in new areas than to re-fight old battles,」 says Chris Dixon of Andreessen Horowitz, another VC firm with investments in the field. Remember, Google did not win over Microsoft by developing another operating system. What might be the search engine of Web 3.0? Mr Dixon points to services that manage data in creative ways, for instance extracting insights from digital information while letting consumers and companies keep control of their data.

推動點對點技術進步和提出web 2.0概念的Tim O』Reilly曾如此發問：「區塊鏈十歲了，落地的應用程序在哪呢？」但他也認為不存在一個突破可以將區塊鏈所面臨的「戈爾迪之結」快刀斬亂麻，並且讓這項技術成功擴容。就連臉書也將區塊鏈視為未來機會：上個月臉書成立區塊鏈小組，並且對不止一個區塊鏈項目表示了興趣。如果真的能有驚天動地的突破，那些爆款dapps一定會出乎人的想像。「對於一項新的技術範式來說，在新領域打贏總比在古典領域打贏容易許多」，風險投資公司Andreessen Horowitz的Chris Dixon如是說。請注意，谷歌並沒有通過開發新的操作系統來勝過微軟。那區塊鏈時代的搜索引擎會長什麼樣子？Dixon認為是要巧妙的管理數據，比如一邊從數據中獲得洞見，同時還能讓用戶對他們的數據有控制權。

幣橙網專註於區塊鏈項目投研分析、測評領域。通過分散式、社區協作的方式組成評測分析團隊，更加公正，公平，客觀的角度剖析區塊鏈項目本身。每一期內容的產出都離不開幣橙網社區的同學們，萬分感謝。另外：幣橙網社區不接受項目方投資，不接受收費投研分析。

歷史評測報告

更多報告請查看全部信息閱讀

喜歡這篇文章嗎？立刻分享出去讓更多人知道吧！