關於中非關係的十大誤解

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作者系中國人民大學重陽金融研究院執行院長，本文刊於2018年8月20日《參考消息》、本文的英文版刊於8月20日《Global Times》。文後附有英文版。

2018年中非合作論壇北京峰會將於9月舉行。隨著峰會的臨近，非洲逐漸成為中外輿論熱議的話題。然而說起非洲，不少人腦海中通常會想起「貧窮」、「落後」、「疾病」等詞，對中非合作與投資也持消極的看法。時值盛會前夕，基於對非洲十多個國家的實地調研，筆者梳理目前中外輿論中對非洲、中非關係最常見的十點誤解，試圖結合自身觀察與研究，還原一個複雜而真實的非洲。

1

非洲很窮？不一定！

非洲共有60個國家與地區，3020萬平方公里土地，約12億人口。由於歷史原因，非洲是全球發展中國家最集中的大陸，各地發展極不平衡，有些國家人均收入相當低，如辛巴威、賴比瑞亞，但有些國家則相對富裕。筆者曾調研開羅、開普敦、阿布賈、達累斯薩拉姆等多地，城市裡富人扎推，發展在全球排名中並不算落後。作為非洲前三大經濟體之一，奈及利亞是非洲第一人口大國、非洲最大的石油生產國及世界第六大石油出口國，探明天然氣儲存量非洲第一；南非屬於中等收入國家，黃金、鑽石、釩、錳、鉻、銻、鈾、石棉等的產量均居世界前列。埃及是世界四大文明古國之一，在科技、旅遊業、農業、工業、服務業等方面長期處於非洲領先態勢。

可見，相對發達國家而言，確實非洲大多數國家的經濟比較落後，但不要忘了，非洲經濟增長速度近年來都居全球領先地位，人口普遍年輕，僅用一個「窮」字概括，是對非洲發展狀況的巨大誤解，也容易使人忽視其蘊藏著的巨大發展潛力。

2

非洲是一個整體？未必！

雖然非洲聯盟包含55個非洲成員國，覆蓋了非洲幾乎全部的國家和地區，在政治、經濟、軍事上都發揮著重大作用，並計劃在將來像歐盟那樣發行統一貨幣，然而非洲其實是個多樣化的大陸。非洲內部還有諸如薩赫勒-撒哈拉國家共同體、阿拉伯馬格里布聯盟、中部非洲經濟與貨幣共同體、西非國家經濟共同體、南部非洲發展共同體、東非共同體等，區域間許多政策也會出現分歧，甚至重大衝突。畢竟，非洲面積約相當於三個中國，人口與中國相當，各地情況不盡相同。從地理人文角度看，非洲可分為北非五國和撒哈拉以南的非洲。北非五國(包括埃及、利比亞、突尼西亞、阿爾及利亞、摩洛哥)人口構成中有70%以上為阿拉伯人(屬白種人)，人文歷史、經濟發展、宗教風俗等方面與撒哈拉以南非洲有很多不同。從語言文化上看，在非洲英語是精英階層較為通用的語言，但也有31個國家第一或第二語言是法語，斯瓦希里語、豪薩語等當地語言也有大量人群在使用。不同語言習慣源於不同的歷史傳統，也直接促成了非洲各國之間的政治與文化差異。

可見，雖存在非盟這樣的聯合政治實體，但許多時候不能用一個整體的邏輯來看非洲，甚至除了地理與少數政治觀念外，「非洲」通常是一個過於寬泛、抽象與模糊的概念。

3

投資非洲風險很高？不一定！

許多人認為，非洲是投資高風險地區。這種說法有一定依據。非洲很多國家基礎設施不完善，政權更迭頻繁，社會治安不穩，投資安全議題常常受到國內外輿論的關注。但客觀地講任何國際投資都會有風險。風險高往往意味著利潤也高。非洲作為全球跨境投資的藍海，自然成為近年來中國企業走出去的優先選擇目標地之一。據相關機構梳理，從2005-2016年，中國已在非洲投資了293個項目，投資存量近千億美元，創造就業崗位超13萬個。尤其是2016年，中國對非投資項目數大幅增加106%。中國企業正在以真金白銀「用腳投票」方式湧進非洲，已使中國成為非洲前三大投資國。筆者曾調研數個港口、公路、鐵路、電信網路、發電站以及機場等項目，盈虧比率在一般商業規律範疇之內，有的項目盈利情況還非常好。尤其是中國與非洲一些國家合作建設的工業園，獲得了長足的進步。比如，筆者調研中國與埃及合作約20年建立中埃泰達蘇伊士經貿合作區，涵蓋加工製造、物流、保稅、技術開發、商貿和現代服務等主要產業。據報道截至2017年底，合作區共吸引68家企業入駐，解決了上萬人就業，蘇伊士運河河口正在平地而起一座嶄新的產業城鎮。

可見，若不了解非洲，投資當然會充滿巨大風險。但中國企業只要因地制宜，把握規律，「風險」就會成為無限的機遇。

4

中國在無私援助非洲？平等合作！

數十年來，中國在非洲援助修建了上萬公里的鐵路、公路與橋樑，數百座學校、醫院、圖書館與體育場，用鐵一般的事實駁斥了西方媒體常報道中國在非洲推行「新殖民主義」的論調。然而對非援建項目在中國國內輿論卻常受爭議，被認為是「虧本買賣」，甚至被認為「中國撒錢非洲」。實際上不然，中國對非洲援建，既不是不可告人的商業秘密，也不是要做「當代的活雷鋒」，而是在探討新時期南南合作的全球典範之路。以「安哥拉模式」與「衣索比亞模式」為例，中國為安哥拉修建了港口及延至剛果(金)邊界的鐵路，極大促進了安哥拉、剛果(金)的大量石油、銅、鋅、錳、黃金的對外出口，中國成為最優先的買家。近年來，衣索比亞信奉「要致富，先修路」的中國經驗，將超過80%國內基建項目交由中國承包，使本國成為全球經濟增長最快的國家之一，而中埃貿易成為中國對外出口最快增長地之一。中國對非的長期援建極大提升了中國在非口碑，使對非貿易長期年均增長兩位數以上，中國連續多年成為非洲最大貿易夥伴。有人曾樂觀預估到2030年，中非貿易、對非投資量將有望雙雙超過中美貿易、中國對美投資。另外非洲各國普遍歷史短，產業基礎相對薄弱，是中外產能合作的最佳選項。

可見，中國援建非洲與中非貿易、產能合作增長存在密不可分的關係。尤其是在當前歐美國家貿易增長潛力有限、西方對華防範力度強大的背景下，援建非洲基礎設施的意義恐怕更不能被狹窄地理解。

5

非洲人還不起中國人的債？不是！

2012年以來，中國平均每年在非洲基建投資穩定在120億美元左右，已成為非洲基建最大的投資來源國。為此，西方媒體開始炒作中國人加重債務，甚至炮製了中國迫使非洲國家為避免債務違約而被迫出讓主權的「債權帝國主義論」。事實上，據聯合國數據，非洲2016-2018年債務佔GDP比額徘徊在32%左右，且不說美國110%、義大利115%、日本225%的高債務率，即使與一般國際標準相比，非洲債務率也不算太高。對非洲「債務危機」的猜測主要是對其稅收收入、可持續償還能力的悲觀預期。這恰恰證明非洲需要中國「造血金融式」的貸款，幫助解決非洲基建投資，進而通過經濟增長解決發展困境。

事實表明，近年來中方對非洲借貸風險總體可控，對非融資議題上秉持的原則，首先是考慮非洲自身需要，再是力所能及的標準與雪中送炭的作用。誠然一些非洲國家可能暫時遇到了問題，但解決問題的出路只能是繼續發展。而發展正是中國與非洲合作的最關鍵目標。

6

非法滯留中國的非洲人已成災？被誇大了！

近年來，一些媒體與傳言常曝出非洲人非法滯留中國的現象，甚至出現了販毒、鬥毆、聚眾等負面社會問題。其中，有傳言稱在廣州的非洲人達50萬之巨。以筆者在穗調研結果看，在廣州的非洲人主要分五大類：一是貿易商；二是主要從事翻譯的白領階層；三是體力勞動者；四是供職於語言機構的外語教師；五是留學生。這其中尤以留學生增長最快，官方統計2018年非洲留華學生總計約8萬人，「50萬」的數字明顯不實。事實上作為千年的開放之城，大量外國人長期旅居廣州。據統計當前廣州常住外國人約10萬，其中亞洲國家佔55%左右，東南亞籍最多，非洲僅佔15%左右。可能是因為某些國人的偏見，非洲在廣州的人數才被明顯誇大了。

可以想像，隨著中國日益發展，定會有更多外國人來華就學、求職，這本身是中國夢的最好注釋。一個國家要持續發展，必須在全球廣納賢才。未來中國各地肯定會出現不少有戶口的黑皮膚、白皮膚的「新中國人」。

7

非洲須向中國學習發展經驗？互學互鑒！

這些年中國改革開放的經驗，令許多非洲國家羨慕。40年前中國與非洲都是欠發達國家，但現在中國經濟總量已是非洲經濟總量的5倍多，且在政治穩定、經濟增長、城市治理、減貧消盲、基礎設施、科技創新、電子商務等領域取得了舉世矚目的成績。的確，中國的發展經驗為非洲尤其是一些欠發達國家提供了一條有別於西方經驗的新選項。但千萬不要以為，非洲必須得向中國學習，中國可以「教師爺」的身份向非洲傳授經驗。事實上，中國的經驗不一定完全適合於非洲。比如中國上世紀末以勞動密集型產業政策為先導，促成了中國製造業大騰飛的經驗，像波札那這樣的國家就沒法學。波札那國土面積58萬平方公里，人口僅230萬，很難依靠勞動力形成規模型產業。

相反，非洲也有許多值得中國學習借鑒之處，如非洲人生活樂觀、與自然和諧相處，金錢並非是社會價值理念中的主要目標等等。在物質高度發達的今天，非洲人的許多生活理念是值得中國人深思的。

8

非洲發展受西方理念影響很大？正在減弱！

從15世紀開始，歐洲殖民者就逐步蠶食非洲大陸，對非洲實施了程度不一的殖民統治。長期以來，歐美國家常以「援助」、「貸款」等為由強行干涉非洲國家內政，並通過各種非政府組織、教育機構等途徑，引導非洲按照政治選舉化、經濟私有化等西方模式設計國家發展道路。然而非洲多數國家長期被困「中低收入陷阱」。2008年國際金融危機、2011年「阿拉伯之春」推動了非洲各國的道路反思與政治覺醒。誠如肯亞交通部前常務秘書長加里雄·伊基拉所說，「西方殖民者在非洲留下了一筆『政治遺產』，民族矛盾、宗教矛盾、部族衝突，這些『遺產』禁錮了非洲的發展和一體化進程。『一帶一路』倡議強調互聯互通、共建共享和合作共贏，這正是非洲打破枷鎖的重要出路」。

數項國際調查表明，中國經驗在非洲的吸引力急劇上升，在埃及、坦尚尼亞、奈及利亞等主要非洲國家的影響力已超過美國、歐洲。「西方神話」在非洲正在破產。

9

中非合作是與西方對著干？不是！

近年來，中非合作的緊密關係引發了西方的猜忌。有的西方媒體還猜測，中非加強合作，就是為對抗西方。事實上全世界與西方對抗的力量從來不是來源於中非。中非合作的核心是和平與發展，是新世紀下南南合作的全新實踐。中非合作本著互利互惠的原則，在政治上中國堅持國家不分大小、貧富一律平等，反對以大欺小，反對干涉別國內政，主張多極化與國際關係民主化。這些都是21世紀國與國交往的先進理念，有別於西方的霸權主義思維。

其實，非洲除了與中國每三年舉行一次中非合作論壇之外，還與美國、法國、日本、印度等主要大國定期舉行高峰論壇。非洲本身就是世界政治中的一股獨立力量，不依附於任何大國。中國與西方搞好關係，也是本國外交的重中之重。將中非合作與西方對立起來，只不過是一些西方輿論的臆想而已。

10

中非合作不能引領世界未來？錯！

中國與非洲佔全球1/3人口，40年前，全球多數貧困人口都集中在中國與非洲。長期以來中非合作並不被看好。現在中國通過改革開放與全民的持續努力，解決了全球70%貧困人口的溫飽，並與非洲建立了全天候的合作夥伴關係。雙方沒有任何歷史恩怨，在國際事務中有廣泛的共同利益，一路走來，相互幫助，共同發展，成為全天候合作夥伴。中國與非洲國家既有共性，又有自身的特點和規律。自2013年中國提出「一帶一路」倡議以來，中國對非投資存量不斷提高，深刻改變了中非經濟合作格局。2015年非洲制定了《2063年議程》和工業化目標，與「一帶一路」高度契合。中非合作給予經濟援助時不設置政治門檻，授人以漁而非授人以魚；不是單方面的居高臨下，更不是施捨，而是在尊重市場規律和平等原則下的可持續的互利合作。這種合作正在成為一種新潮流，引領未來世界的長足發展，也將成為人類命運共同體的最佳實踐。

GIF

英文版

Many people tend to associate Africa with words like "poor," "underdeveloped," or "disease," and hold negative views about China-Africa cooperation and investment. With the upcoming Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Beijing Summit 2018 going to be held in September, Africa has been under the spotlight. I analyze 10 most common misunderstandings about Africa and China-Africa relations on the basis of my field research in more than 10 African countries.

First, Africa is not a synonym of poverty. Africa is a continent with the largest concentration of developing countries. The per capita income of some countries is rather low. This includes Zimbabwe, Congo and Liberia, but many others are relatively wealthier. As one of the three largest economies, Nigeria is not only the most populous country, but also the largest oil producer in Africa and the world"s sixth largest oil exporter. As a middle-income country, South Africa is one of the countries with the highest output of gold, diamonds, vanadium, manganese, chromium, antimony, uranium and asbestos in the world. Egypt, one of the four ancient civilizations of the world, has long been a leader in Africa in economy, science and technology, tourism, agriculture, industry and service industries. The economy of most African countries is relatively backward, but some have recently led with better growth rates.

Second, is Africa a whole? Not necessarily. The African Union has 55 members. It even intends to issue a unified currency in the future like the European Union. Nevertheless, Africa is a diverse continent. There are also many communities within Africa, with the Community of Sahel-Saharan States, the Arab Maghreb Union, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community being a few. Ethnic differences also lead to cultural diversity among nations.

Some people think investing in Africa is very risky, but it is not the case. Due to inadequate infrastructure, frequent regime changes, and unstable social security in many countries, the security of investment in Africa is often under glare. As a blue ocean of global cross-border investment, Africa has become a sought-after destination for Chinese enterprises in recent years. From 2005 to 2016, China has invested in 293 projects in Africa, with an investment outlay of nearly $100 billion and more than 130,000 jobs have been created. In 2016, the number of projects with Chinese investment increased by 106 percent. With Chinese enterprises flooding into the continent, China has ranked among the top three investors in Africa. According to my research, the profit and loss rates of the China-invested projects fall within the range of general business practices, and some projects are showing profits. If Chinese enterprises know how to adapt to local conditions, the investment risk can be brought down.

Is what China offers to Africa selfless assistance? It should be called equal cooperation. China has helped Africa build thousands of kilometers of railways, highways and bridges, and construct hundreds of schools, hospitals, libraries and stadiums, which has stirred controversy in China and is regarded as "a loss on the sale." Yet, China"s assistance to Africa is to explore a way to promote South-South cooperation in the new era, and efforts have promoted China"s reputation in the continent. China has emerged as Africa"s biggest trading partner for many consecutive years.

It is also wrong to think that Africans are unable to repay the debt. Since 2012, China"s average annual infrastructure investment in Africa has stabilized at about $12 billion, which makes China the largest investor in African infrastructure. Western media began to weave tales of "Creditor Imperialism," which implies that African countries might be forced to cede sovereignty in order to avoid default. According to the United Nations, Africa"s debt-to-GDP ratio was around 32 percent during 2016-18, which is not too high by international standards, and is much lower than the 110 percent debt-to-GDP ratio of the US, 115 percent of Italy and 225 percent of Japan. The speculation about Africa"s "debt crisis" is caused because of pessimism about its tax revenues and payback capability.

It is exaggeration to say that too many Africans illegally overstay in China. Rumor has it that there are a large number of Africans illegally overstaying in China. This, it is said, leads to drug trafficking and brawls. A rumor says that there are as many as 500,000 Africans in Guangzhou. In fact, as a city open to the world for thousands of years, Guangzhou have had a large number of foreigners. According to statistics, there are about 100,000 permanent foreigners in Guangzhou, of which 55 percent are Asian and only 15 percent are from Africa. The number of 500,000 is obviously exaggerated.

Some hold that Africa must learn from China. Forty years ago, China and African countries were all underdeveloped. But now, China"s economy is five times larger than Africa"s. Furthermore, China has made remarkable achievements in political stability, economic growth, urban governance, poverty and illiteracy alleviation, infrastructure, scientific and technological innovation and e-commerce. China"s development experience provides Africa, especially some less developed countries, an option different from Western experience. But do not take it for granted that Africa must learn from China. Due to different conditions, China"s experience may not be a perfect fit for Africa. On the other hand, there are many aspects where Chinese can learn from Africans, such as their optimistic attitude toward life, way of living in harmony with nature, etc.

While Africa"s development was hugely influenced by Western philosophy, the West"s impact is weakening. Africa had been under the rule of European colonists since the 15th century, which has led to various political problems in the continent. Ethnic conflicts, communal violence, and clan warfare have affected the development and integration process of Africa. The Belt and Road initiative, which emphasizes connectivity, sharing and win-win cooperation, would become the important way-out for Africa to break the shackles.

But it is wrong to say that China-Africa cooperation works against the West. In recent years, the close ties between China and Africa have aroused suspicion in the West. Some Western media outlets even speculated that China and Africa are strengthening cooperation to fight the West. Sino-African cooperation is a new practice of South-South cooperation. China-Africa cooperation is based on the principle of mutual benefit and reciprocity.

In addition to the FOCAC held every three years, Africa holds regular summits with other major powers such as the US, France, Japan and India. As an independent power in world politics, Africa does not attach itself to any great power. The West"s confrontation with China and Africa is only a conjecture of Western public opinion.

China-Africa cooperation can lead the future of the world. The population of China and Africa accounts for a third of the global population. Forty years ago, most of the world"s poor were from China and Africa. For a long time, Sino-African cooperation has been supposed to be unpromising. Now, through reform and opening-up and sustained efforts of the people, China has reduced 70 percent of global poverty and established an all-weather partnership with Africa. Since the Belt and Road initiative was proposed in 2013, China"s investment in Africa has seen a continuous rise, which has changed the pattern of economic cooperation between China and the continent. Such cooperation pattern will lead the long-term development of the world.

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