活到105歲死亡率就會降低？

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研究者發現，到了105歲，人的死亡率開始趨平甚至下降。這不禁使我們發問：人類壽命是否有自然上限？

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Climb over the hill and head for the plateau. That, according to biologists, defines the path to extreme old age. Researchers announced last week that, once someone reaches 105, their chances of dying stop rising, start to level off and might even decline.

翻過這座山，就是一片平原了。根據生物學家的說法，這解釋了通向極端老齡的道路。研究人員上周宣布，一旦人們活到105歲，他們的死亡率就不再上升，反而開始趨平甚至下滑。

Similar 「late-age mortalityplateaux」 have been found in insects, and hinted at in rodents, but the discovery of one in humans will excite controversy. If people essentially stop ageing after becomingcentenarians, it is legitimate to ask: are there any natural limits to human lifespan?

類似的「高齡死亡率平台期」現象已在昆蟲中發現，在嚙齒類動物中也有所表現，但在人類身上發現這種現象將引發爭議。如果人們過了百歲基本上就停止衰老，那麼我們有理由問：人類壽命是否有自然上限？

①plateau[?pl?to?]（plateaux是plateau的複數）n. 高原；台地；平台期 v. 進入停滯期

例句：The U.S. heroin market now appears to have reached a plateau.

美國的海洛因市場目前似乎已進入了一個穩定階段。

②centenarian[,sent?"ne?r??n]adj. 百歲（以上）的n. 百歲人瑞

例句：Japan has more than 4,000 centenarians.

日本有超過4,000 位百歲老人。

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This latest analysis was led by demographer Elisabetta Barbi, who scrutinised the hazard rates (measuring the likelihood of death) of all Italians aged 105 and above, who were living between 2009 and 2015. More than 3,800 Italians fell into this age group.

這項最新分析是在人口統計學家伊麗莎白?巴爾比(Elisabetta Barbi)的率領下展開的，她研究了義大利在2009年至2015年間在世的所有105歲及以上的老人的風險率（衡量死亡概率）。超過3800名義大利人屬於這個年齡組。

Bureaucraticpedantrywas key: elderly people commonly report themselves older than they actually are, so Prof Barbi』s team obtained birth and death records, or other administrative evidence, of age and survival. Similar records for Italians aged under 105 were gathered from a mortality database.

在程序方面謹小慎微是關鍵：老人通常會報告一個比自己的實際年齡更大的年齡，因此，巴爾比教授的團隊取得出生和死亡記錄，或者其他有關年齡和生存狀態的官方證據。壽命不到105歲的義大利人的類似記錄是從一個死亡率資料庫中收集的。

③pedantry["ped(?)ntri]n. 迂腐；謹小慎微

例句：But as his actions have departed little from late-period George W. Bush, this boils down to mood and pedantry.

但由於奧巴馬在行動上與喬治·W·布希（GeorgeW.Bush）政府後期相差無幾，這種對比最終體現在語氣和咬文嚼字上。

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They reported their results in the journal Science last week: 「By using clean data from a single nation?.?.?.?we have shown that death rates, which increaseexponentiallyup to about age 80, do decelerate thereafter and reach or closely approach a plateau after age 105.」 You are as likely to die at 110 as you are at 105 — although, at 50 per cent every year the chances are still high.

他們上周在《科學》(Science)雜誌上發表了研究結果：「通過利用來自單一國家的有效數據……我們已展示出，死亡率在80歲之前呈指數上升，之後增速放緩，並在105歲以後達到或接近一個平台期。」你在110歲死亡的概率與105歲時一樣，不過，每年的死亡概率為50%，仍然很高。

④exponentially[?eksp???nen??l?]adv. 以指數方式

例句：As the size of a robot increases linearly, the cost and difficulty to make it increases exponentially.

隨著機器人規模的線性增加，它的花費和難度都成指數增加。

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The findingrekindlesdebate about whether there is a fixed maximum human lifespan. The documented rise of the supercentenarian — those aged 110 and over — has also prompted renewed thinking on the subject. It is difficult to obtain precise numbers on these exceptionally long-lived individuals, but the US-based Gerontology Research Group lists 35 certified supercentenarians as of last month. Two are men. Fourteen live in Japan, including the oldest person currently alive, a 117-year-old woman. Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment remains the world』s longest-lived person: she died in 1997 aged 122.

這一發現重新激起了有關人類壽命是否存在固定上限的辯論。有記錄的超級百歲老人（110歲及以上的老人）的數量增加，促使人們重新思考這個話題。雖然很難獲得這些極為長壽的老人的確切數據，但美國的「老年學研究小組」(Gerontology Research Group)列出了截至上月在世的35位得到認證的超級百歲老人。其中兩人為男性。14人生活在日本，包括目前在世的壽命最長的老人、一名117歲的女性。法國女性讓娜?卡爾芒(Jeanne Calment)仍是全球壽命最長的老人：她於1997年去世，享年122歲。

⑤rekindle[ri?"k?nd(?)l]vt. 重新點燃；使重新活躍；使復甦

例句：Ben Brantley"s article on Sir Ian McKellen rekindled many memories.

本?布蘭特利關於伊恩?麥凱倫爵士的文章喚回許多記憶。

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The true number of supercentenarians worldwide is thought to be in the hundreds, but many are excluded from study because they lack supporting documentation. One problem with official dates is that sometimes only the last two digits of a year are recorded; until recently, the lives of some supercentenarians hadstraddledthree centuries.

有人認為，全球實際上共有數百名超級百歲老人，但其中很多人無法被納入這次研究，因為他們缺乏證明記錄。官方日期數據的一個問題在於，有時僅記錄了一個年份的最後兩位數字；直到最近之前，一些超級百歲老人的壽命已跨越3個世紀。

Evolutionary theory does, in fact, predict a levelling off of death rates. If individuals vary in their genetic fitness and ability to survive environmental pitfalls, then the less robust are likely to die off first. The genetically blessed,by virtue oftheir continued survival, define the surprisingly low death rate of their advanced age group.

實際上，進化論確實預測死亡率會趨平。如果每個人的基因適應度和戰勝困難環境存活下來的能力不同，那麼不那麼強壯的人很可能會先死。憑藉持續的存活，那些擁有良好基因的人解釋了為何他們所在的超高齡群體的死亡率出奇的低。

⑥straddle["str?d(?)l] v. 跨坐；騎；橫跨

例句：But any new Asia-Pacific policy has to straddle the fundamental contradiction at the heart of regional politics.

然而，無論美國採取何種新亞太政策，都必須跨越位於地區政治核心的基本矛盾。

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And supercentenarians are nothing if not clinical outliers. They somehowdodgethe usualslingsand arrows of ageing and squeeze their decline into a short period right at the end of their lives, often dying of organ failure.

超級百歲老人完全屬於臨床上的例外。他們不知為何躲過了衰老通常伴隨的各種磨難，把自身的衰退擠進了生命走向終點時的一段短暫時期中，他們通常死於器官衰竭。

A pioneering 2006 study of 32 supercentenarians, published in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, found them to be virtually immune tovasculardisease. Diabetes and Parkinson』s disease were rare, but cataracts and osteoporosis were common. About 40 per cent were still functionally independent.

2006年的一項對32位超級百歲老人進行的開創性研究發表在《美國老年病學會會刊》(Journal of the American Geriatrics Society)上。該研究發現，這些老人幾乎沒有患過血管疾病。糖尿病和帕金森病在他們身上也相當罕見，但白內障和骨質疏鬆相當普遍。他們中約有40%的人依然能生活自理。

⑦dodge[d?d?]v. 躲避，避開

例句：He boasts of dodging military service by feigning illness.

他吹噓說自己裝病逃過了兵役。

⑧sling[sl??] v. 丟；掛；吊n.（懸吊受傷手臂的）懸帶

例句：If you allowed yourself to feel every sling and insult and bit of unpleasantness you"d be a nervous wreck.

如果你讓自己感覺到每一次攻擊、侮辱和一丁點兒不高興，你的精神就會崩潰。

⑨vascular["v?skj?l?] adj. 血管的；脈管的

例句：The first place that vascular disease can show up is where the blood vessels are the smallest and the farthest away from the heart.

血管病最早會通過離心臟最遠、最細的血管顯示出來。

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The documented numbers of supercentenarians needs to rise — and care of the elderly improve — before science can pronounce further on the natural limits of human lifespan. Moreintriguingis that these (overwhelmingly female) warriors against ageing may harbour genetic and environmental clues to defying the horrors — heart disease, stroke and diabetes — that too swiftly claim the rest of us.

需要更多有記錄的超級百歲老人，對老人的照顧水平也需要提高，這樣科學才能進一步揭示人類壽命的自然極限。更有趣的是，這些對抗衰老的戰士（絕大多數為女性）可能掌握了挑戰心臟病、中風和糖尿病等可怕的疾病的基因和環境線索，這些疾病過於迅速地奪去了我們其他人的生命。

⑩intriguing["?ntri?g??; ?n"tri?g??]adj. 有趣的；迷人的

例句：This intriguing book is both thoughtful and informative.

這本引人入勝的書既有思想性又有知識性。

片語拓展

by virtue of由於，憑藉

「by virtue of 」和「on account of」都是非常常見的表示「由於」之意的短語片語，但是這兩個片語的用法要如何區分呢？

「virtue」本身有美德的意思，所以「by virtue of 」多表示「多虧是」的意思。

例句：She start empty-handed, by virtue of her extraordinary creativity and unyielding spirit to become come first on the list of design master.

她白手起家，憑藉她非凡的創造力和永不妥協的精神成為了首屈一指的設計大師。

而「on account of」表示「考慮到；因為」等,沒有明顯的情感傾向。

例句：I think the company should adopt a more flexible strategy on account of the changing market conditions.

我想，由於市場情況的變化，公司應該採取一種更加靈活的策略。

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