滙豐全球經濟預測報告：冰火兩重天 美國正在蓬勃發展，但全球經濟開始放緩 中國：整固、再通脹、改革

Global Economics 全球經濟

Diverging Fortunes 命運不同

美國可能正在蓬勃發展，但全球經濟開始放緩……

這造成的壓力分歧令人不安

在新興經濟體長期情況則不同.....

Summary

The short vs the long

短vs長

一個簡單的動態景象正在全球經濟中上演:美國正在蓬勃發展，而大多數國家世界其他地區的增長放緩甚至停滯。由這個問題引起的應力是在許多新興市場上演著令人不安的一幕。美聯儲正在加息防止美國經濟過熱，利率限制了政策選擇這些國家的金融狀況正在收緊，貿易緊張局勢不斷加劇。

然而，無論短期壓力如何，長期前景很可能會明顯不同。

我們的新分析(見第17頁)表明，新興經濟體將是全球經濟增長的主要推動力

相對於面臨人口挑戰的國家而言，全球經濟具有優越的長期潛力發達市場。明年左右，美國經濟可能繼續超越其他國家，但未來10年左右的時間裡，新興市場(尤其是亞洲)應該牢牢掌握在自己手中。

A simple dynamic is playing out in the global economy right now: the US is booming, while most of the rest of the world slows or even stagnates. The stresses caused by this divergence are playing out uncomfortably in many emerging markets. A US Federal Reserve that is raisinginterest rates to prevent the US economy from overheating is constraining the policy options ofcountries where financial conditions are tightening and trade tensions intensifying.

Whatever the short-term strains, however, the long-term picture is likely to be markedly different.

Our new analysis (see page 17) suggests that emerging economies will be the big drivers of theglobal economy, given their superior long-term potential relative to demographically challengeddeveloped markets. The next year or so may see the US economy continue to outshine others butthe next decade or so should belong firmly to EM, particularly Asia.

Decoupling?

這已成為一個耳熟能詳的故事:就像我們上一套季度預測修正版一樣，這個季度也是如此，我們是否會再次調高對美國2008 -2019年經濟增長的預測，並調低對中國經濟增長的預測世界上大部分地區。汽油價格可能會走高，真正的聯邦基金利率終於有了這是十多年來首次出現好轉，美中貿易緊張局勢加劇

然而，財政刺激仍在繼續提振經濟。個人減稅和創歷史新低失業率幫助美國消費者信心升至18年來的高點，稅後表現強勁企業利潤增長意味著投資支出前景進一步明朗。那麼，今年已經加息三次的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)是否自信滿滿就值得懷疑了，預計中國將在未來一年繼續以類似的速度收緊政策。

世界其他地區看起來不那麼耀眼，但還沒有什麼太令人擔憂的。歐洲已經很明顯從2017年末的高點放緩，企業信心仍在走軟，但增長依然存在略高於潛力，在日本也是如此。只有阿根廷和南非這樣的國家。實際上，許多新興經濟體已經陷入衰退，但它們的增長正在放緩，或將進一步放緩接下來的幾個月。因此，儘管加息對美國國內可能有意義隨著世界其他地區的經濟失去動力，其他國家也不明顯應該效仿。然而，正如最近幾個月所顯示的，選擇可能並不完全是他們的

It is becoming a familiar tale: as with our last set of quarterly forecast revisions, the story this quarteris once again to revise up our US growth forecasts for 2018-2019 and to edge down our forecasts for

much of the rest of the world. Gasoline prices may be higher, the real Fed Fund』s rate has finallyturned positive for the first time in more than a decade and US-China trade tensions have heightenedyet again but the fiscal stimulus continues to provide a lift. Personal tax cuts, together with record-lowunemployment, have helped to raise US consumer confidence to an 18-year high and strong aftertaxcorporate profit growth means the outlook for investment spending has brightened further. Littlewonder then that the FOMC, which has already raised rates three times this year, is confidentlypredicting that it will continue to tighten policy at a similar rate in the coming year.

The rest of the world is looking a little less stellar but nothing too worrying as yet. Europe has clearlyslowed from the highs of late 2017 and business confidence is still softening but growth remainsslightly above potential and it is a similar story in Japan. Only the likes of Argentina and South Africaare actually already in recession but much of the emerging world is slowing or set to slower further inthe coming months. Hence, while higher interest rates might make sense for the domestic USeconomy, with much of the rest of the world losing momentum, it』s not obvious that other countriesshould follow suit. And yet, as recent months have shown, the choice may not be entirely theirs.

Impact of triple shocks still unfolding in EM

We set out our stall regarding the outlook for EM in Triple shock, 28 June 2018, and see littlereason to change the message contained in that report now: US tightening, higher oil prices andongoing trade frictions are all taking their taking their toll on the growth outlook. Some of thepressure on EM may have faded as the dollar has reversed some of its appreciation but,dragged down by higher rates, tighter lending standards and falling equities, EM financialconditions are still tightening. The fallout in the most-affected countries is only just starting to befelt and the relief may prove short-lived. Our FX strategists expect the dollar』s rise to resume,the oil price has recently been on the rise again, as we expected, and in the near term we see agrowing risk it could touch USD100/b. Moreover, the latest round of 10% tariffs on USD200bn of

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