滙豐報告：2019年需投入2萬億穩定經濟中國基礎設施建設再次蠢蠢欲動去槓桿下誰出錢？

新聞 11-20

Why read this report? 為什麼要讀這個報告？

Our analysis shows that China needs to increaseinfrastructure investment by RMB2trn by the endof 2019e to stabilise the growth rate of fixedasset investment at around 5%.

我們的分析顯示，到2019年底，中國需要將基礎設施投資增加2萬億元，以使固定資產投資的增長率穩定在5％左右。

We identify where the money is likely to be spentand why the central government is likely to play amajor role in financing new projects throughseveral different channels.

我們確定了可能花費的資金來源以及為什麼中央政府可能通過幾種不同渠道為新項目融資發揮重要作用。

We show which companies should benefit mostand why this current increase in infrastructureinvestment should be more sustainable thanthose in the past.

我們展示哪些公司應該受益最多，以及為什麼目前基礎設施投資的增長應該比過去更具可持續性。

Sizing up the investment

抓住投資！

Investors are unsure about the magnitude and timing of the increasein China』s infrastructure investment, where the money is comingfrom, and who stands to benefit most. We estimate that a furtherRMB2trn is required by the end of 2019e to stabilise the growth rateof fixed asset investment at around 5%. Increased funding from thecentral government over the coming months should allay concernsabout the financing of existing and new projects. Meanwhile, we thinkPPP financing should shift towards commercial projects in order toattract private capital for infrastructure investment. Buy ideas includeCRCC, Gezhouba, Anhui Conch, and CRRC Corp.

投資者不確定中國基礎設施投資增長的幅度和時間，這些資金來自哪裡，哪些人受益最多。我們估計，到2019年底需要再增加人民幣2萬億元才能將固定資產投資增長率穩定在5％左右。未來幾個月中央政府增加的資金應該可以減輕對現有和新項目融資的擔憂。同時，我們認為PPP融資應轉向商業項目，以吸引私人資本進行基礎設施投資。買入方向包括CRCC，葛洲壩，安徽海螺和CRRC。