小心地雷！滙豐中國地方融資平台研究：2019年140美元債到期 重申賣出來自江蘇的LGFV債

滙豐研究報告：2019值得關注的中國地方融資平台

緊張依然存在，包含了蔓延風險

1

未來的重大融資挑戰，價值140億美元的美元債券在2019年到期

2

我們預測2019年投資級地方政府融資平台債券供應量為120-150億美元，高收益地方債供應量為80-100億美元

3

重申對來自江蘇的地方政府融資平台的基本建議減持，並維持一下債券的賣出交易DFINVH"19，FANGYA"19，HACOMM"19，HUAHK"19，XZETDZ"19，ZGCHGI"19

2018 recap

2018回顧

Tension rose earlier this year following the increase in corporate bond defaults in the onshore market. Up until this point, Chinese local government funding vehicles (LGFVs) is the only sector yet to suffer from an onshore bond default. While still holds, several names have missed their onshore loan payments during the year. This focused the market』s attention on China』s debt situation, particularly borrowing by LGFVs and their refinancing needs.

隨著在岸市場公司債券違約的增加，今年早些時候的緊張局勢有所上升。 到目前為止，中國地方政府融資平台（LGFVs）是唯一尚未遭受境內債券違約的行業。 雖然仍然撐著，但有幾個債券在這一年裡錯過了支付期。 這使得市場關注中國的債務狀況，特別是地方政府融資平台的借貸及其再融資需求。

Given that information relating to local governments is extremely limited from an offshore point of view, the offshore LGFV universe is sensitive to macro/policy-driven headlines. In particular, Yunnan State-owned Capital Operation, Tianjin Municipal Construction and Development, along with two other names from Inner Mongolia – Xilinhot Jipaishui and Inner Mongolia Horqin City Construction – have failed to fully repay their onshore off-balance sheet loans and/or trust loans on time (15 January 2018, Reuters; 18 May 2018, Reuters, 26 June 2018, Sina). This created unease in the market and triggered a wave of selling pressure for the USD bonds issued by LGFVs. Certain high yield-rated LGFVs like Jiangsu Newheadline』s NHLHK』19 and Jiangsu Zhongguancun』s ZGCHGI』19 yielded as much as 17-23% (ask) at one point.

鑒於從離岸角度來看，與地方政府有關的信息非常有限，離岸地方政府融資平台的範圍對宏觀/政策驅動的頭條新聞很敏感。 特別是，雲南省國有資本運營公司，天津市建設和發展公司，以及來自另外兩個來自內蒙古 - 錫林浩特吉帕水和內蒙古科爾沁城市建設的債券 - 未能準時完全償還其境內資產負債表外貸款和/或信託（2018年1月15日，路透社; 2018年5月18日，路透社，2018年6月26日，新浪）。這引發了市場的不安，並引發了地方政府融資平台發行的美元債券的拋售壓力。某些高收益率的地方政府融資平台，如江蘇新航線的NHLHK"19和江蘇中關村的ZGCHGI"19，收益率一度高達17-23％（詢價）。

As of now, the offshore market remains unconvinced in two areas – that LGFVs are capable of repaying their debt on their own, and that the government will keep bailing out struggling LGFVs. Therefore, investors have exercised caution, as demonstrated by the clear differentiation in performance between the USD bonds of stronger and weaker LGFVs. We note that majority of the high-yield or non-rated LGFV USD bonds, especially those with maturities in 2019, have ask yields of above 8%; whereas the average investment grade-rated USD bond maturing in the same year has an ask yield of 3-4%.

截至目前，離岸市場在兩個領域仍然不相信 - 地方政府融資平台能夠自行償還債務，政府將繼續拯救陷入困境的地方政府融資平台。 因此，投資者已經謹慎行事，正如LGFV強勢和弱勢的美元債券之間的業績明顯分化所證明的那樣。 我們注意到，大多數高收益或無評級的的地方政府融資平台美元債券，特別是那些到期日為2019年的債券，要價已經達到收益率超過8％; 而同年到期的平均投資等級美元債券的要價收益率為3-4％。

Primary activity turned busy from August Year-to-date, there have been USD16.3bn of bonds issued by Chinese LGFVs from both the public and private markets. Excluding the USD2.4bn that came from private placements, investment-grade credits took up most of the issuance, accounting for USD11.2bn, versus USD2.6bn issued by high-yield/non-rated LGFVs.

從8月份開始一直到現在，籌資活動變得繁忙，中國地方政府融資平台已經從公共和私人市場發行了163億美元的債券。不包括來自私募配售的24億美元，投資級信貸佔據了大部分發行，佔112億美元，而高收益/非評級地方政府融資平台則發行了26億美元。

小心地雷

Conclusion – Belief vs fundamentals

Taking into account USD14bn worth of LGFV USD bond maturities in 2019, and the improved access of LGFVs to the offshore bond market since August 2018, we forecast USD12-15bn of investment-grade LGFV bond supply for 2019, along with high-yield supply from the space of USD8-10bn. We also reiterate our negative stance on non-IG rated LGFV bonds maturing in 2019. We note that the credit profile of LGFVs differs widely, hence we have looked closer at names that issued bonds with a larger outstanding amount, along with those that we deem as in terms of fundamentals. We acknowledge that understanding the clear credit differentiation between LGFVs』 standalone profile does not necessarily cover all the risks involved, and also does not tell us whether the government will step in and provide refinancing support. But it would be sensible to avoid being exposed to technical defaults and uncertain bailouts. Please see our company 2-pagers at the back for more details, and a summary of fundamental recommendations can be found in Table 10.

結論 - 信念與基本面

考慮到2019年價值140億美元的地方政府融資平台美元債券期限，並且自2018年8月以來，地方政府融資平台進入離岸債券市場的路徑有所改善，我們預測2019年投資級地方政府融資平台債券供應其大概有120-150億美元，還有大概80-100億美元的高收益債券。

我們還重申了對2019年到期的非IG級別地方政府融資平台債券的負面立場。我們注意到這一點，地方政府融資平台的信用狀況差異很大，因此我們更加關注發行債券的單位具有更大的未償還金額，以及我們認為的基本面。我們承認理解LGFV獨立概況之間明確的信用差異不一定涵蓋所涉及的所有風險，也不告訴我們是否政府將介入並提供再融資支持。但避免接觸是明智的，不管是技術違約和不確定的救助。請在後面查看我們了解更多信息，表10列出了詳細信息和基本建議的摘要。

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