全球十大經濟體國家預測出爐！專家稱2030年，印度將超越美國

These Could Be the World』s Biggest Economies by 2030

到2030年，這些國家可能成為世界上最大的經濟體

素材來源：彭博社 翻譯：世界播

Seven of the world』s top 10 economies by 2030 will likely be current emerging markets.

到2030年，全球十大經濟體中有7個可能是當前的新興市場。

The prediction for a shake-up of the world』s gross domestic product rankings comes in new long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered Plc, which includes a projection for China to become the largest economy by 2020, using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal GDP.

渣打銀行對全球國內生產總值排名的調整做出了新的長期預測，其中包括利用購買力平價匯率和名義GDP預測中國到2020年將成為全球最大經濟體。

India will likely be larger than the U.S. in the same time period while Indonesia will break into the top 5 economies.

與此同時，印度可能會超過美國，而印尼將躋身前5大經濟體之列。

Rising Stars?

新星嗎?

Top 10 countries by nominal GDP using PPP exchange rates by the year 2030

到2030年按購買力平價匯率計算的名義國內生產總值排名前10位的國家

"Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries』 share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world』s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies," Standard Chartered economists led by David Mann wrote in a note.

以戴維?曼為首的渣打銀行經濟學家在一份報告中寫道:「我們的長期增長預測基於一個關鍵原則：受發達經濟體和新興經濟體人均GDP趨同的推動，各國在全球GDP中所佔份額最終應與它們在全球人口中所佔份額趨同。」

They project trend growth for India to accelerate to 7.8 percent by the 2020s while China』s will moderate to 5 percent by 2030 reflecting a natural slowdown given the economy』s size.

他們預計，到2020年，印度的經濟增長率將加快至7.8%，而中國的增長率到2030年將放緩至5%，這反映出印度經濟規模的自然放緩。

Asia』s share of global GDP, which rose to 28 percent last year from 20 percent in 2010, will likely reach 35 percent by 2030 -- matching that of the euro area and U.S. combined.

亞洲佔全球GDP的比重從2010年的20%上升到去年的28%，到2030年可能達到35%，與歐元區和美國的總和相當。

Here are some other findings from Standard Chartered』s economists:

以下是渣打銀行經濟學家的一些其他發現:

Waning reform momentum in emerging markets weighs on productivity growth

新興市場改革勢頭減弱，拖累了生產率增長

The end of the quantitative easing era may mean more pressure on economies to reform and revive productivity trends

量化寬鬆時代的結束，可能意味著經濟面臨更大的壓力，要求改革和重振生產率趨勢

The middle-class is at a tipping point, with a majority of the world』s population entering that income group by 2020

中產階級正處於一個轉折臨界點，到2020年，世界上大部分人口將進入這一收入群體

Middle-class growth driven by urbanization and education should help counter the effects of the rapid population aging trend in many economies, including China

城市化和教育推動的中產階級增長，應該有助於抵消包括中國在內的許多經濟體人口迅速老齡化趨勢的影響

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