瘋狂的比特幣會毀滅地球？業內人士：這並非聳人聽聞！

Another thing you may not know about Bitcoin: it"s killing the planet

關於比特幣，還有一件事你可能不知道:它正在毀滅地球

素材來源：《衛報》 翻譯：世界播

作者：Ethan Lou

I make Bitcoin, and in a previous life, I covered the oil industry as a journalist. Increasingly, I』m realizing the two worlds are alike. Bitcoin is oil.

我製作比特幣，在之前的生活中，我曾以記者的身份報道石油行業。漸漸地，我意識到這兩個世界是相似的。比特幣就是石油。

And one day, Bitcoin will become big oil, and all who dabble in it will be reborn as enemies of the environmental movement, seen as plunderers of the planet and the bad guys in the fight against climate change – just like oil.

總有一天，比特幣會成為石油巨頭，所有涉足比特幣的人都將重生，成為環保運動的敵人，被視為地球的掠奪者和對抗氣候變化的壞人——就像石油一樣。

Bitcoin』s environmental footprint will haunt it. Nobody has pointed this out, but it is painfully clear: if we can at all predict an industry』s growth by that of a different one, then oil is Bitcoin』s crystal ball.

比特幣在環境問題上的足跡將困擾著它。沒有人指出這一點，但這一點令人痛苦並且清楚地認識到：如果我們完全可以通過一個不同行業的增長來預測另一個行業的增長，那麼石油就是比特幣的水晶球。

Most cryptocurrencies, of which Bitcoin is the first and most valuable, are created by running servers to crunch mathematical puzzles, or 「mining」.

比特幣是最早也是最有價值的加密貨幣，大多數加密貨幣都是通過運行伺服器來破解數學難題或「挖掘」而產生的。

I have a facility that does that in Canada』s oil capital of Calgary, and its business model is similar to that of the city』s dominant industry. Both profit by generating and selling a product whose price swings with supply and demand. Some in Calgary partake in both.

我在加拿大的石油之都卡爾加里有一家這樣的工廠，其商業模式與該市的主導產業的模式類似。通過生產和銷售價格隨供需波動的產品而獲利。卡爾加里的一些人對這兩類都兼而有之。

The cryptocurrency world is bigger than mining. But shares in either industry move in sync with the value of the underlying asset.

加密貨幣的世界比採礦業更大。但這兩個行業的股價走勢都與標的相關資產的價值同步。

Oil is considered volatile in finance. In the two years after 2014, its price fell more than 70%, similar to Bitcoin』s crash in 2018. Layoffs swept both industries.

石油在金融領域被認為是不穩定的。2014年之後的兩年里，比特幣的價格下跌了70%以上，類似於2018年比特幣的崩盤。裁員席捲了這兩個行業。

While oil has tangible uses, most buying and selling is done on paper by traders seeking profit, with barrels never changing hands. Long ago, I learned cryptocurrency trading from oil professionals.

儘管石油有實實在在的用途，但大多數的買賣都是由尋求利潤的交易員在紙面上完成的，然而石油卻永遠不會被轉手。很久以前，我從石油專業人士那裡學到了加密貨幣交易。

Then there is the environment. Oil is a big offender. So is Bitcoin. Mining uses as much power as a small country, according to some estimates. Miners compete for limited coins, resulting in an arms race, and that power usage increases constantly and rapidly.

還有環境問題。石油是一個大罪犯。比特幣也是。據一些人估計，採礦業的用電量相當於一個小國的用電量。礦工們為了有限的硬幣而競爭，導致了一場軍備競賽，而電力消耗也在不斷快速增長。

The two industries are hardly the only environmental offenders, but they make great targets. Oil is currently the biggest one. That is in part because the industry is prominent, represented internationally by organized and high-profile groups. Attacks on it are visible.

這兩個行業並不是唯一的環境破壞者，但他們是一個主要的污染製造者。而且石油目前是最大的一個。這在一定程度上是因為該行業處於主導地位，並在國際上由一群有組織、知名度高的團體作為代表。社會上對它的攻擊是顯而易見的。

Environmentalists also see oil as futureless and unnecessary. Cars pollute, but few protest outside a General Motors factory – one day, its products could all be electric, but oil remains forever oil.

環保主義者也認為石油是沒有未來而且並非是必要的。汽車污染，但很少有人在通用汽車工廠外抗議——總有一天，它的產品或許都會變成電動的，但石油仍然永遠是石油。

Those two points apply well to Bitcoin. 「How to buy Bitcoin」 was third-ranked in Google』s how-to searches for 2017. With mergers and acquisitions more than doubling in 2018, cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly organized.

這兩點很適用於比特幣。而就在谷歌2017年的How -to搜索中，《如何購買比特幣》排名第三。隨著2018年的併購交易增加了一倍多，加密貨幣正變得越來越有組織性。

Big cryptocurrency players have been accused of price manipulation, and their conflicts have rocked the market. Sounds just like the Saudi Arabia-dominated Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel.

大型加密貨幣玩家被指控操縱價格，它們之間的衝突震撼了市場。聽起來就像沙烏地阿拉伯主導的石油輸出國組織卡特爾。

Bitcoin, too, has been accused by pundits of being futureless and unnecessary. It does have great potential to revolutionize finance, but a decade after its birth, the everyday person still has no practical use for it.

比特幣也被專家們指責為沒有未來，並且沒有必要。它確實具有使金融發生革命性變化的巨大潛力，但在它誕生十年後，對普通人來說，它仍然沒有實際的用途。

Granted, the total value of all cryptocurrencies is only one-tenth of the over-$1tn worth of oil produced every year. But the International Energy Agency has said global oil demand will peak by 2040, as the world seeks cleaner energy.

誠然，所有加密貨幣的總價值僅為每年逾1萬億美元石油產量的十分之一。但國際能源署表示，隨著世界尋求更清潔的能源，全球石油需求將在2040年見頂。

It is not this day, but a day may come when big oil shrinks or changes, becoming less of a target for environmentalists. Bitcoin is the natural next enemy.

現在還未到那一天，但總有一天，大型石油公司會縮小規模或發生變化，而且不再是環保人士的目標。比特幣是自然環境的下一個敵人。

The caveat is that cryptocurrency continues to grow. Bitcoin – both the currency and industry – has endured worse crashes than 2018』s and emerged stronger. But the past is no map for the future.

需要注意的是，加密貨幣將繼續增長。比特幣——無論是比特幣還是比特幣行業——都經歷了比2018年更嚴重的崩盤，並變得更加強勁。但過去不是未來的地圖。

The battle lines, however, are already being drawn. While academics and the media have long noted mining』s electricity usage, 2018 marked the year environmental and progressive publications started sounding the alarm.

然而，戰線已經拉開。儘管學術界和媒體界早就注意到了採礦業的用電量，但在2018年，環保行業和進步類出版物行業開始敲響了警鐘。

Last December, a writer for the green publication Treehugger gloated over the cryptocurrency』s fall in price: 「Bitcoin is a colossal waste of energy that will soon be no more. Good riddance.」

去年12月，綠色刊物Treehugger的一名作家對比特幣的價格下跌幸災樂禍:「比特幣是一種巨大的能源浪費，很快就會消失。真是謝天謝地。」

Abkhazia has announced the shutdown of 15 mining sites over electricity use concerns. Municipalities in Washington state have reined in the activity. Norway has excluded miners from power subsidies, with one leftwing politician calling the activity 「the most dirty form of cryptocurrency output」.

阿布哈茲因用電問題宣布關閉15個礦區。華盛頓州的市政當局已經控制了這一活動。挪威已將礦商排除在電力補貼之外，一名左翼政客將這種行為稱為「最骯髒的加密貨幣產出形式」。

Miners have a lot to think about – if not for the planet, then for survival – for this is a fight that is coming.

礦工們還有很多事情要考慮——即便不是為了地球，也要為了生存——因為這是一場即將到來的戰鬥。

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