UBS中國在線音樂產業報告：未來3年市場規模翻翻短視頻和流媒體競爭版權競爭激烈有流量無油水！

新聞 08-12

中國在線音樂產業

流媒體和短視頻正在改變音樂產業

摘要

音樂市場

重要的增長機會 - 但新的破壞者正在出現.

Significant growth opportunities—but new disruptors are emergingWe believe online media consumers in China—like their counterparts in developedmarkets—are increasingly willing to pay (report). However, there are two keydifferences in China"s music industry. First, live streaming (including online karaoke) willremain a key growth driver in China. In 2018, live-streaming revenue was about 10xmusic subscription revenue, and we forecast a 2018-23 live streaming revenue CAGRof 29% compared to 26% for subscriptions. Second, short video apps, especially TikTok, have become the leading music discovery platforms.

重要的增長機會 - 但新的破壞者正在出現.我們認為中國的網路媒體消費者-就如他們在成熟市場的同行 - 越來越願意支付（報告）。但是，中國音樂產業有兩個關鍵的不同。首先，直播（包括在線卡拉OK）將仍然是中國的主要增長動力。2018年，直播收入約為音樂訂閱收入的10倍，我們預測2018-23實時流媒體收入複合年增長率與訂閱的26％相比，這一比例為29％。第二，短視頻應用，尤其是TikTok，已成為領先的音樂發現平台。

訂閱量增長將被衡量，但基於廣告的音樂可能會帶來上行空間

Subscriptions growth will be measured but ad-based music could drive upsideChina"s music industry is at an inflection point similar to those in movies in 2002 andonline video in 2015. But we think music subscriber penetration growth will be mild(from 2.8% in 2018 to 8.6% in 2023E) compared to long-form video (from 1.5% to30% over 2015-18). New shows drive video, but legacy content libraries are moreimportant for music. Platforms will have to slowly degrade their free services to drivemusic listeners to pay. We also believe ad-based music could be a major driver ofmonetisation. In three to five years we estimate it will generate revenue 3x greater than2018 music subscription revenue (under conservative assumptions), especially asChinese music listeners have been conditioned by years of not paying for music and stillpay little for long-form video.

訂閱量增長將被衡量，但基於廣告的音樂可能會帶來上行空間

中國的音樂產業正處於與2002年的電影以及2015年在線視頻差不多的轉折點。但我們認為音樂用戶普及率增長將是溫和的（從2018年的2.8％到2023年的8.6％）與長視頻相比（從1.5％到2015 - 18年30％）。新節目推動視頻，但為內容庫提供更多音樂很重要。平台必須慢慢降低他們的免費服務才能驅動音樂聽眾付錢。我們也相信基於廣告的音樂可能是其發展的主要推動力。在三到五年內，我們估計它將產生比收入高3倍的收入2018年音樂訂閱收入（保守假設下），特別是多年來，中國音樂聽眾一直沒有為音樂付費為長視頻支付少許費用。

Tik Tok正在破壞音樂產業的運作方式

Tik Tok is disrupting how the music industry worksIn the past two years, Tik Tok has been the largest emerging traffic pool in China"smobile internet space. We view music as a deeply rooted element of Tik Tok. It hasalready transformed China』s music value chain by becoming the largest marketingchannel, and is reportedly planning to enter the music streaming business overseas. Ouranalysis indicates 40-70% of top-ranked music becomes popular due to exposure onTik Tok, and we estimate it is 20x more influential than leading music and video appslike QQ Music and iQiyi, in terms of the number of music clips played.

Tik Tok正在破壞音樂產業的運作方式。在過去的兩年里，Tik Tok一直是中國最大的移動互聯網空間新興流量池。我們將音樂視為Tik Tok的根深蒂固的元素。它有通過成為最大的市場營銷，已經改變了中國的音樂價值鏈據稱正在計划進軍海外音樂流媒體業務。我們的分析表明，40-70％的頂級音樂因Tik Tok曝光而變得流行，就播放的音樂片段而言，我們估計它比領先的音樂和視頻APP，QQ音樂和愛奇藝的影響力高20倍。

Initiated coverage of TME (Neutral) balancing growth and competitionWe think Tencent Music Entertainment (TME), China』s largest music platform bymonthly active users (MAU) and subscriber base, has significant long-term upsidepotential. However, that is offset by near-term margin pressure due to competition andlicensing fees (see our initiation of coverage).

首次評級TME（中性）平衡增長充滿競爭。我們認為就每月活躍用戶（MAU）和用戶訂閱而言，騰訊音樂娛樂（TME）是中國最大的音樂平台之一，具有顯著的長期上升空間潛在。然而，就短期而言，由於競爭和版權費近期利潤率有壓力。