特朗普上台＝美國氣候政策危機？哥大教授解讀特朗普上任後的氣候與能源政策

Climate Change Under Trump: A Q&A with Michael Gerrard

特朗普治下的環境變化：邁克爾.傑拉德教授的問答

特朗普的當選令關心氣候變化的人們深感不安：他曾經把全球變暖稱作是中國人的騙局，還曾威脅說要撤走美國環境保護署的資金並撤出巴黎氣候協議，這無異於將減少溫室氣體排放的最佳機會毀於一旦。那麼，特朗普是否會兌現他曾放出的「狠話」呢？憂心氣候變化的人們又該如何反擊？關於這些問題，哥倫比亞大學薩賓氣候變化法律中心主任邁克爾.傑拉德(Michael B. Gerrard)已經有了答案。

For those who favor strong action on climate change, the election of Donald Trump is creating plenty of anxiety and concern. Will Trump, who in the past called global warming a hoax created by China, follow through on his threats to defund the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or cancel the Paris Climate Agreement, which could represent the best chance we』ve had for the world to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions? How can those who are concerned about climate change best fight back? Michael Gerrard, director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, had some answers.

特朗普可以採取什麼合法的方式退出巴黎氣候協議、叫停清潔能源計劃（該計劃要求美國的發電廠減少碳排放）或者裁撤美國環境保護署呢？

What actions could President Trump legally take to renege on theParis Climate Accord, stop theClean Power Plan(requiring U.S. powerplants to cut carbon emissions) or abolish the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)?

這三件事里特朗普可以做到兩件。他可以讓美國撤出《巴黎協議》。協議中關於削減溫室氣體排放的部分並不具有國際性的法律強制力。同樣，美國和其他發達國家對發展中國家以及聯合國項目進行經濟援助的部分也不具備法律強制力。因此，如果特朗普非要撤出《巴黎協議》，美國可能會在國際上承受道義的譴責，卻無需承擔法律責任。

Trump can do two out of the three. He can withdraw the United States』 participation in the Paris agreement. The portions of the agreement relating to greenhouse gas emissions reductions are not internationally enforceable. The portions that concern financial contributions from the U.S. and the other developed countries to the U.N. programs and to the developing world are also not legally enforceable. So if Trump were to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris agreement, it would make our country an international pariah, but it would not subject us to legal enforcement.

特朗普有很多叫停清潔能源計劃的辦法。在法律層面最乾淨利落的做法就是正式修改或者廢除這項法規。如果哥倫比亞特區聯邦巡迴上訴法院（這項計劃正在此接受質詢）維持原判，環保署可以上訴，可以要求最高法院複審。如果到時候最高法院有了一位由特朗普新任命的大法官，那審判結果就不太樂觀了。特朗普還可以削減美國環境保護署落實計劃所需的經費，並且暗示他永遠不會落實這個計劃。

There are a number of mechanisms that Trump could use to stop the Clean Power Plan.The legally cleanest would be to formally amend or rescind the regulation. If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit [where the plan is currently being challenged] upholds the plan, EPA could appeal, could seek review before the Supreme Court and if, by the time it gets to the Supreme Court, there is a new Trump appointed justice, then one wouldn』t be very optimistic about the outcome. Trump could also starve EPA from getting the money to enforce the plan and just indicate he will never enforce it.

至於裁撤美國環境保護署，我倒並不認為這件事會發生，原因如下：第一，許多法令中都給美國環境保護署布置了具體任務，要裁撤這個機構就必須修改這些法令。此外，根據法律規定，許多運營活動都需要得到環境保護署的許可。要是沒有這個機構的話，工廠就沒辦法拿到運營許可，很多工廠就得倒閉，這肯定不是支持特朗普的人所希望看到的。所以我並不覺得特朗普真的會裁撤美國環境保護署，他更有可能削減環保署的經費，讓相關行業所不喜歡的項目無法進行下去。

Now the third thing you asked me about is abolishing the EPA. There are several reasons why I don』t think that would happen. First, there are many statutes that give EPA specific tasks, and it would require amendments to those statutes to take that responsibility away. Additionally, by statute, many operations legally require permits from EPA, so if there』s no EPA and it』s impossible to get permits, it is then impossible to operate factories. So elimination of EPA would require shutting down many factories, which is clearly not what Trump people have in mind. So I don』t think elimination of EPA is seriously on the table. I think it』s much more likely that it will be starved of the funds it needs to carry out the programs that industry doesn』t like.

為了應對氣候變化，當前各個組織或者其他實體所能做的最有效的事是什麼呢？

What』s the most effective thing that organizations or other entities could do to fight climate change now?

各州依然擁有廣泛的權力，而那些在政治上支持對氣候變化採取行動的州可以做許多事。

The states still have broad powers, and in those states that politically support action on climate change, there』s a great deal they can do.

感到沮喪的個人又能做些什麼呢？

What are the best actions that individuals who are discouraged can take?

在各州和地方層面上，人們可以採取很多政治性的行動。在有些州，選民們可以向共和黨的參議員施壓，以防止破壞環境的法案在國會獲得多數票。我們既要支持民主黨候選人，也要向共和黨議員施壓。有時候票數很接近，所以我們必須向他們表明立場——我們不喜歡你們投票破壞環境。

There is a lot of political action that can be taken at the state and local level. In some states, pressure can still be exerted on Republican members of the Senate so that there isn』t a majority vote in favor of certain anti-environmental actions. We need to support Democratic candidates, but we also need to give Republican senators a very hard time. Some of the races were close, so we need to make it clear to them that anti-climate votes will not be appreciated.

另外，許多法律法規都是記錄在案、有據可查的，公民有對執行不力的行為提起公民訴訟的權利。這也就意味著如果美國環境保護署沒有貫徹落實有關法規，或者溫室氣體的排放違反了法律規定，公民就有權訴諸聯邦法院，要求其下達強制執行的命令。

In addition, many of the regulations are still on the books, and the statutes provide for citizen suits to enforce them. This means that if EPA is not carrying out the statute or if an emitter is violating the statute, a citizen can go to federal court and seek an order that compels compliance.

最後，民眾還應該積极參加競選。我們的政壇需要具有環保和進步意識的新一代候選人，讓他們對思想固化的共和黨人提出真正的挑戰。我們也都可以去支持這樣的候選人。我想起過去勞動者們在工會組織者慘遭殺害以後所說的話：「不要悲哀，組織起來！」

Ultimately, though, people need to run for office. We need a new generation of political candidates who will run for office on an environmental and progressive platform, and put up real challenges to the entrenched Republicans. And we can all support those that do. I』m reminded of the old labor saying after the slaying of the principal union organizers, 「Don』t mourn, organize!」

Photo: Jim the Photographer

※特朗普任命新環保局局長 或拋棄奧巴馬氣候政策
※特朗普撤出《巴黎氣候協定》，歐盟在峰會上尋求氣候領導
※特朗普簽署行政命令 推翻奧巴馬政府氣候政策
※特朗普簽行政命令 廢除奧巴馬氣候政策
※美政客：特朗普退出巴黎氣候協定 中國將獲領導權
※特朗普宣布美國將退出巴黎氣候協定
※庫克敦促特朗普總統，希望美國能夠繼續留在巴黎氣候公約
※特朗普與美國前副總統戈爾會面 共商氣候問題
※特朗普上任之後，將閃電退出巴黎氣候協議
※默克爾能把特朗普重新拉回氣候問題的談判桌嗎
※特朗普已決定？要美國退出巴黎氣候協定
※美國退出巴黎協定｜特朗普氣候政策會增加多少碳排放？
※美環保人士集會抗議特朗普氣候政策 「北極熊」到場助陣
※特朗普暗示 美對巴黎氣候協定立場或改變
※印稱太陽能電價下跌怪中國，特朗普退出氣候協議讓中國優勢更明顯
※美媒：特朗普決定令美國退出巴黎氣候協定
※美官員：特朗普會以自己的方式應對氣候變化
※特朗普無視氣候變化威脅：氣象頻道「火力全開」
※特朗普退出巴黎氣候協定意味著什麼？