他強任他強？美國球迷探討為什麼科比的高階數據如此慘淡？

美國JRS之聲

他強任他強？美國球迷探討為什麼科比的高階數據如此慘淡？

Why are Kobe Bryant"s advanced stats so lackluster?

為什麼科比的高階數據如此慘淡？

Value Over Replacement Player (VORP): Of the top 250 highest VORP seasons, Kobe holds #84, #118, and #154. MJ dominates this stat with the top 2 best seasons of all time.

Box Plus/Minus (BPM): Lebron has 5 of the top 10 best seasons including the best of all time, though Westbrook is on pace to break his record this season. Kobe"s best comes in at #155. Even lesser greats like Tmac, KG, and David Robinson all have seasons in the top 30.

Win Shares per 48: Kareem had 3 of the top 5 greatest win share seasons of all time. Lesser greats like Chris Paul, Dirk, Wade, and Barkley managed to make the top 50. Kobe doesn"t have a season in the top 200.

True Shooting Percentage (TS%): This stat is dominated by bigs; however wing players such as Lebron, Harden, Curry, and Magic have all made the top 50. Kobe doesn"t a season in the top 250.

Player Efficiency Rating (PER): This stat is basically a box score aggregate that tends to favor bigs and volume scorers, so it"s no surprise that Wilt and Jordan have 4 of the top 5 best seasons. Kobe Bryant"s historic 2006 season comes in at #59.

All of these numbers can be found on Basketball Reference.。

該球員與可替換球員的絕對價值差（VORP）：在聯盟歷史上單賽季VORP值最高的前250名中，科比最高的三個賽季分別排在第84名，第118名，第154名。喬丹則以兩個分別排名第一和第二的賽季統治了這份榜單。

正負值（BPM）：勒布朗有5個賽季該數據都排進了歷史前10，包括歷史第一也是他的，雖然這賽季威少正在朝著打破他記錄的方向發展。而科比這一數據最好的賽季才僅僅排在第155，就算沒他這麼偉大的球星，像麥迪，KG，海軍上將都有該數據進入前30的賽季。

每48分鐘WinShares：賈巴爾擁有著歷史前5中的3個席位，像保羅，德克，韋德和巴克利沒科比這麼屌的救援都打出過該數據排進歷史前50的賽季。而科比甚至都排不進前200。

真實命中率：這是一項被大個子們統治的數據；但是有些側翼球員，像勒布朗，哈登，庫里和魔術師也能排進歷史前50，而科比連前250都進入不了。

效率值：這基本上就是數據統計表上得分的綜合，尤其偏愛大個子和超強的得分手，所以喬丹和張伯倫霸佔歷史前5中的4席也就不奇怪了。然而科比得分爆炸力堪稱史詩級別的06賽季，居然只能排到第59名。

所有數據取自BBR。

[–]Knicks-orangejoe 115 指標 10小時前

He was a volume scorer, those types of players always look worse in advanced stats.

他曾經是個瘋狂出手的得分者，這種類型的球員高階數據一般都不會很好看。

[–]Knicksbrohymn 81 指標 10小時前

Not only that but he was a volume scorer during an era which highly valued volume scorers. The lakers offense focused on getting Kobe shots and efficiency and stats wasn"t the name of the game.

並不僅僅只是因為他喜歡瘋狂的出手投籃，更是因為在他的時代，這樣的得分手是被欣賞的，被贊同的。當時湖人進攻的核心就是讓科比拿到球並投籃，其他的什麼效率，數據，都不是他們所重視的。

[–]Warriorsborntoperform 14 指標 6小時前

Not only that he was a volume scorer during a volume-scorer-heay era, but those volume scorers took most of their shots during iso plays, which are typically low-efficiency shots.

Until zone defense because legal, a good portion of a team"s offense was to place their top scorer in a position to work his magic. Big men in the post, guards/forwards on the wing/post. Now with the rise in data analytics, we see that iso plays are typically low in Points Per Possession compared to other shots.

並不僅僅只是因為他喜歡瘋狂的出手投籃，並處於一個讚美這樣進攻方式的時代，更是因為大多數的投籃都來自於單打，而這恰好是一種效率極低的得分。

在聯盟允許區域聯防後，很多球隊的進攻都開始側重於讓他們的頂級得分手在舒服的位置接到球，然後期望他們能施展出自己的魔法。從而大個子開始低位單打，後衛/前鋒則在側翼/低位單打。隨著現在數據分析的崛起，我們才開始發現比起其他的進攻手段來說，單打每回合的得分效率是非常低的。

[–]WarriorsLordChuckleFuck[S] 49 指標 10小時前

Other volume scorers such as Tmac, Wade, Westbrook, Kareem, Durant, Shaq, Wilt, Bird, still manage to make top 50 in some of these stats.

但是其他大量出手的得分者，比如麥迪，韋德，威少，賈巴爾，杜蘭特，沙克，張伯倫，伯德都能夠在這些高階數據中的某項里進入歷史前50。

[–][MIA] Justise WinslowTito_Our_Saviour 43 指標 10小時前

Kobe was like "supreme volume" scorer

科比大概是「巨JB浪出手」得分手吧。

[–][MIL] Sidney MoncriefSidMoncrief 18 指標 9小時前

Prime Orlando TMac was definitely a supreme volume scorer too.

在魔術的巔峰麥迪顯然也是個「巨JB浪出手」得分手。

[–][MIL] Sidney MoncriefSidMoncrief 12 指標 9小時前

Yeah, but that kinda disqualifies the "Kobe was a volume scorer so he gets no love" argument. I think advanced stats definitely downplay him and all other volume scorers, but there was something else about Kobe.

Kobe PER 28.0, TS% .559, AST% 24.1, TOV% 9.0, OWS 11.6, DWS 3.7, WS/48 .224, OBPM 7.3, DBPM -1.5, VORP 6.5

TMac PER 30.3, TS% .564, AST% 30.0, TOV% 8.4, OWS 13.2, DWS 2.9, WS/48 .262, OBPM 9.8, DBPM -0.1, VORP 8.7

This is 2005-2006 Kobe and 2002-2003 TMac, both considered prime years. TMac beats Kobe in everything except defensive win shares.

但是這樣一來你就不能再說「因為科比是個大量出手的得分者，所以他不受數據分析的歡迎」這樣的話了。我覺得高階數據會讓所有這樣的得分者都顯得有些難堪，但是還有些異於常人的地方。

科比：效率值28.0，真實命中率0.559，助攻率24.1%，失誤率9.0%，進攻勝利貢獻值11.6，防守勝利貢獻值3.7，48分鐘勝利貢獻值0.224，平均進攻正負值7.3，平均防守正負值-1.5，該球員與可替換球員的絕對價值差（VORP）6.5

麥迪：效率值30.3，真實命中率0.564，助攻率30.0%，失誤率8.4%，進攻勝利貢獻值13.2，防守勝利貢獻值2.9，48分鐘勝利貢獻值0.262，平均進攻正負值9.8，平均防守正負值-0.1，該球員與可替換球員的絕對價值差（VORP）8.7

上面分別是2005-06賽季的科比和2002-03賽季的麥迪的數據，都是他們的巔峰時期。麥迪在各項數據里都擊敗了科比，除了防守勝利貢獻值。

[–][WAS] John Walllivefreeordont 10 指標 8小時前

I think the difference is Kobe turned it over more, had fewer offensive rebounds, and fewer assists. And I guess that is valued as more important than scoring a few more points at identical efficiency

我覺得差距在於科比的失誤更多，進攻籃板更少，而且助攻也更少。我感覺在效率相當的情況下，能控制失誤，搶下更多的籃板以及助攻隊友更多比單純的多得一些分要更被數據分析欣賞一些。

[–]LakersYou_Fucking_Donkey_ 22 指標 9小時前

Ah age old rivalries.. Batman vs the Joker, Spiderman vs the Green Goblin, Darth Vader vs Obi Wan Kenobi, Volume Scorers vs advanced stats..

湖人蜜：好了，又回到了老生常淡的對決...蝙蝠俠vs小丑，蜘蛛俠vs綠魔，黑武士vs絕地武士，大量出手的得分者vs高階數據。

[–]Celticsmcb25 25 指標 9小時前

I don"t think it"s fair to say they"re lackluster. He doesn"t have any "holy shit we"ve never seen anyone do something like this" seasons but he has a ton of really really good seasons. 11 seasons in the top 10 for OBPM, 11 in the top 10 for PER, 7 for VORP and BPM. Somehow most people interpret that as "advanced stats hate Kobe Bryant". I don"t get how a stat that considers a player top 10 in the league for the better part of a decade is saying anything besides "Kobe Bryant is an all time great". And his career ranks for those stats back that up, career VORP is 15th all time, BPM 35th, PER 24th, OBPM 14th.

我不認為僅僅依靠這個你就說他是個平庸的球員，這是不公平的。雖然科比沒有那種「前無古人後無來者」的賽季，但是他確實在很多個賽季里都打出了非常非常不錯的表現。他有11個賽季平均進攻正負值排進了聯盟前10，11個賽季效率值聯盟前10，7個賽季VORP和正負值位列聯盟前10。然而還是很多人把這些事實理解成「高階數據不歡迎科比」。我不知道一個球員在10年里的高階數據都處在聯盟前10除了說明他是個偉大的球員外，還能說明其他什麼。而他的生涯高階數據也證明了這一切，生涯VORP歷史第15，正負值歷史第35，效率值歷史第24，平均進攻正負值歷史第14。

[–]LakersRealPunyParker 9 指標 9小時前

Then i believe nobody really had one....i mean, his 2005-2006 season was spectacular.

如果他的2005-06賽季都算不上「前無古人後無來者」的賽季的話，那我相信也沒有其他人打出這樣的賽季了，那賽季他的表現屌炸天。

[–]CavaliersCavs4life2016 14 指標 9小時前*

Advance stats hating him goes beyond volume shooting.

Advance stats vastly underrate him because:

Elite midrange shooter with high frequency.

An elite on ball defender. (For some perspective, last season, players shot 37% against a broken Kobe Bryant in isolation)

Volume scorer.

His prime was predicated on isolation basketball.

His prime consisted of worst teammates that a superstar could have.

Played in ISO heavy, era.

高階數據不喜歡科比，因為他出手太多太多

高階數據極大的低估了他，因為：

他的中距離投籃非常致命，而且在這方面的出手特別多

他對持球人的防守是精英級別的。（就拿上賽季來說，儘管科比已經處於生涯末期，但是球員在單打他時的投籃命中率只有37%）

大量出手的得分者

他的巔峰時期是屬於單打的時代

他的巔峰時期擁有著一個超級球星所能擁有的最差的隊友

處在人們沉迷於單打的年代。

[–][OKC] Russell WestbrookSluggaSlime 47 指標 9 小時前

Cause a Lot of advanced stats Don"t mean shit and don"t take context into anything, efficiency stats aren"t everything people.

高階數據說明不了任何事情，也解釋不了任何事情，效率並不是一切，朋友。

[–]Lakersluckysharms93 37 指標 9 小時前

A lot of those stats will punish Kobe for not racking up the assists and rebounds for example, but the triangle spreads assists around and Kobe never tried to outrebound his own bigs to pad his boards stats, which makes him look worse than he was

因為科比的籃板和助攻不多，所以在很多數據統計中他都會吃虧。但是三角進攻使得助攻在球隊整體中產生，儘管球隊是圍繞著科比打的，而且科比從來不會通過去搶己方大個子的籃板從而去塞滿自己的數據統計表，這樣從數據分析會讓他看起來沒那麼出色。

[–]Lakersjordanestose 19 指標 9 小時前

Same reason Lebron"s Advance Stats for the 2015 NBA Finals were so lack luster. Increased usage % on some bad teams (circa 2006, and from 2012 on). Kobe also got injured while he was still good. If you watched him play in the 2011-2012 season, you"d see what I mean.

這也是勒布朗在2015年總決賽中的高階數據如此平庸的原因。當球隊很爛時，科比的使用率被大幅度提升（大概從06年開始，之後從12年開始）。而且科比在自己仍然很出色的情況下受了毀滅性的傷病。如果你看了他在2011-12年時的表現，你就知道我想表達什麼了。

[–]Raptorssadashn 15 指標 9小時前

The "advanced stats" are more about flashy numbers and what they mean in a generic situation than the actual value of said numbers. They don"t take into account that prime Kobe took every possession that would have been worth nothing to almost any other player to pick up a basketball and turned them into a 50/50 shot at points.

高階數據更傾向於把數據放在一般情況下去分析，而不考慮當時場上的實際情況。當然他們也不會考慮巔峰科比的實際情況——每一回合都需要拿球進攻——而是認為任何一個其他球員在一般的比賽中出手50次拿到50分是毫無意義的。

[–]Bulletskubideh_kaczynski 6 指標 9 小時前

kobe"s greatness is cumulative. i think he"s top 15 in career VORP for example. going season by season doesn"t really do what people like about him justice. it"s all about inpidual moments (and 5 rings)

科比的偉大是逐漸累積起來的，比如他的生涯VORP就排在歷史第15。僅僅只是從單個賽季去看他的表現並不能完全說明他有多偉大，同時也不公平。科比的偉大正是在於那些不可思議的進球瞬間（以及5個冠軍）。

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