騎士藥丸？美國洋溢烏鴉嘴又來了，他7年來次次預測冠軍相反！

運動 03-10

美國JRS之聲

Stephen A. Smith has predicted the Cavs to win the 2017 NBA Finals. He hasn"t correctly predicted a finals winner since 2009. (self.nba)

ESPN洋溢預測騎士將拿下2017年NBA冠軍。但他從2009年開始就一次都沒有預測對過

In 2009, SAS picked the Lakers to demolish the Magic in the finals. Since then he hasn"t picked a finals winner correctly. He has picked the Celtics, Heat, Thunder, Spurs, Heat, Cavs and Warriors, respectively since 2010.

This past week he has said that the Cavs are his pick to win this years finals, whether or not KD is playing.

Should Cavs fans be worried about this?

Edit: His predictions came before the finals started.

2009年，他選湖人擊敗魔術，從那之後他就一次都沒有對過。從2010年開始他分別選中了凱爾特人，熱火，雷霆，馬刺，熱火，騎士和勇士。

過去的這一周里他又說騎士是他今年的冠軍預測，不管杜蘭特打不打。

騎士球迷慌不慌？

PS：一般他的預測都是在決賽開始前。

[–]76ersAmenz 4676 指標 2 天前

What"s more stunning is he"s correctly picked the finals loser every time.

更有意思的是他每次都選出了失敗的一方。

[–]SpursBoom9001 1801 指標 2 天前

I believe most of these predictions were after he knew who the finals people were going to be. Otherwise he"d likely be even more wrong because he"s pretty dumb.

我覺得他是在知道了決賽對陣的雙方之後才選的。否則他這麼蠢一定會錯的更離譜的。

[–]WarriorsMichael808 114 指標 2 天前

Correct, all the predictions were done in the First Take episode leading up to Game 1 of the Finals each year so to be fair I wouldn"t say it"s that unlikely and every Finals Lebron had been apart of weren"t all that predictable (except vs. Spurs in 07).

沒錯，他每次的選擇都是在每年決賽第一場開始前的節目里，所以說實話每次詹姆斯參加了的決賽都沒那麼好猜（除了07年對馬刺）

[–]mhjobe 96 指標 2 天前

The odds of being wrong every time 7 times in a row if you were picking randomly is 1 out of 128. Its pretty unlikely

連續7次每次都猜錯的概率是128分之一。這也太不可能了

[–]WarriorsMichael808 102 指標 2 天前

That is if you assume both teams have an exact 50/50 chance of winning and the results of each Finals are independent to one another, which is clearly not the case leading up to NBA Finals. I"m not really a fan of Stephen A but I defend him in the "curse" theory because apart from picking Heat>Spurs in 2014, all other prediction since 2011 are rather valid.

2011: Heat were the heavy favorites vs. the underdog Mavs

2012: OKC were a hot up and coming team with stacked stars and a deep bench

2013: Toss up

2014: Dumb prediction, SAS was too hyped on King James despite Wade unhealthy

2015: Toss up, prediction made before Kyrie was injured

2016: Most people gave Cavs no chance

如果假設每支球隊贏下總冠軍都是獨立事件，且各有50%的機會，很明顯這樣的模型並不適用於NBA決賽。我雖然不是洋溢的粉絲。但是我覺得這個詛咒除了2014年選熱火而不是馬刺之外，都還是靠譜的

2011年：熱火對陣處於劣勢的小牛有很大的優勢

2012年：雷霆當時球星夠多而且板凳夠深。

2013年：擲硬幣決定的系列賽

2014年：這是真的蠢，他吹詹姆斯吹的太凶了結果忘了韋德的健康狀況並不好

2015年：也是擲硬幣，不過預測在歐文受傷前

2016年：大多數人都覺得騎士沒機會

[–]mhjobe 19 指標 1 天前

No it doesn"t assume that they have a 50/50 chance at all. If you are picking the team randomly then you have a 50 percent chance of picking the winner.

My point was if it"s that hard to get it wrong when you are picking randomly, youd expect someone to do better when they are actually analyzing it.

不。根本不是五五開的局面。如果你隨機挑一隻隊那樣是有50%的機會。

隨機挑錯誤的概率應該高才對，所以當一個人在認真分析的時候應該表現更好才對。

[–]skitz0129 75 指標 2 天前

He gets paid deep in to six figures to have those hot takes. I think he"s very well aware of what he"s doing. I respect his hustle, just not the game he"s playing.

他估計預測這些熱門球隊能拿到大六位數的報酬。我覺得他很清楚自己在幹嘛。我很尊重他勤奮賺錢，但他這個小心思我並不是很看得上。

[–]SpursBoom9001 41 指標 2 天前

Hey if someone was to pay me what he gets paid to have opinions you can bet I"d take that job. He ain"t stupid for getting paid ridiculously for a job he isn"t good at. The company stupid to pay him for it.

如果誰給我掏錢讓我發表評論，想都不用想我都會接受這份差事。他又不蠢，不會放棄一份雖然不擅長的工作但能拿著大錢。是公司太蠢了給他掏這個錢。

[–]HawksProdigy195 94 指標 2 天前

His show is one of the most watched on ESPN. Successful multi-million dollar companies aren"t run by stupid people. He"s paid well for a reason

他的節目是ESPN收視率最高的節目之一，很成功的市值幾億美元的公司才不是由蠢人運營的。他拿錢多是有原因的

[–]Trail Blazers_Quetzalcoatlus_ 56 指標 2 天前

Yeah, ESPN knows that people have really terrible uninformed sports opinions and like dramatic bullshit, so they found a guy to cater to that big demographic.

ESPN知道人們總是有些很奇怪的關於運動的觀點，所以他們找了個人來迎合大眾。

[–]Thunderemunety 32 指標 2 天前

Basically every headline from that show about the nba make it to the front page. It"s not like we are holier than thou

基本上這個節目里的每句關於NBA的頭條消息都能上首頁。這肯定不是因為我們更神聖。

[–]76ersDanaCarvey 49 指標 2 天前

I have no clue how he picked OKC to win though

但我真是想不明白他為什麼會選雷霆。

[–]heej 310 指標 2 天前

OKC was the favorite that series. Check the Vegas odds. It"s only revisionist history now after the Heat beat them in 5 that they were outclassed. All the games were good except for the blowout but mostly they lost because the Thunder kept trying to play Kendrick Perkins against the small ball Heat and got ran off the court. Scottie Brooks blew that series for them.

雷霆在那個系列賽明顯佔優。去看看拉斯維加斯當時的賠率。只有上帝視角才能知道熱火會五場解決他們。每場比賽都很精彩，但是他們輸的主要原因就是想拿帕金斯來對付熱火的小球，結果在場上被跑死。那個系列賽都是布魯克斯的鍋。

[–]New Jersey Netshowboutnowgirl 89 指標 2 天前

Harden played really poorly that series as well

哈登那個系列賽打得也是真爛。

[–]ThunderYAboiiKD 64 指標 2 天前

He sure did, but never would"ve gotten past the Spurs without him.

沒錯，但是沒他也過不了馬刺

[–]ThunderStormStooper 16 指標 2 天前

No no no please stop.

I don"t wanna hear this anymore

雷蜜：好了好了別說了，我聽不下去了

[–]Notext2 29 指標 2 天前

It"s okay, you"re triple double champions now.

別難過，你們現在是三雙冠軍哦。

[–][CLE] LeBron Jamesviniribeiro 1242 指標 2 天前

NOOOOOOOOO SCREW YOU STEPHEN "WORSE HAIRLINE THAN LEBRON" A. SMITH

不要啊啊啊啊啊啊，這個洋-髮際線高過詹姆斯-溢真是天殺的。

[–]CIark 437 指標 2 天前

To be fair dude is like 55. Give Lebron 20 years then compare

講道理，他都55了，等詹姆斯再過20年你再看看這髮際線。

[–]Toronto HuskiesPormanNowell 173 指標 2 天前

I didn"t know he wws that old. Damn

媽呀我都不知道他年紀這麼大了

[–][NYK] Renaldo BalkmanFenderBender71 388 指標 2 天前

Black don"t crack

黑哥不顯老。

[–]HeatJMAN365 21 指標 2 天前

Skip Bayless is 65 too. Dude looks way younger.

ESPN瑜伽也65了，但他看起來要年輕很多。

[–]GoldiBlocks94 96 指標 2 天前

Skip Bayless looks like a Danish woman in an oversized leather bodysuit

瑜伽看起來像是個穿著過大皮質緊身衣的丹麥大媽。

[–]Supersonicsexasperated_dreams 177 指標 2 天前

The biggest curse in all sports

全體育界最大詛咒

[–]WarriorsFreeNemo 769 指標 2 天前

勇蜜：The curse is actually real. Even when you think it isn"t.

這詛咒越是你覺得不真的時候，就越靈。

[–]Knickstheonlyoptionistopoo 249 指標 2 天前

Congrats on the title

祝賀你勇奪得冠軍

[–]Cavaliersmonstars12 69 指標 2 天前

This is not his final pick though, he would switch a couple times before the finals begin.

但這還不是他的最終選擇呢，他估計在決賽開始前還會變個幾次。

[–][SAS] Tim Duncanantony1197 31 指標 2 天前

Can he just say the pelicans will win? Keep us all safe?

他就不能說鵜鶘會奪冠么？這樣大家都安全了

[–]San Diego Rocketsmastersergeant98 25 指標 2 天前

Let"s go with the Nets just in case.

還是預測籃網奪冠保險些。

[–]Cavaliersunklebuckets 232 指標 2 天前

Wrap it up boys we"re done here, trade Lebron to the Knicks for Melo, Kyrie to the heat for Dion, Love to Portland for Myers Leonard, give splashton Kutcher, channing and rj to the warriors and burn Cleveland to the fucking ground.

好了好了騎士這賽季完蛋了。把詹姆斯送去紐約換甜瓜，歐文送去熱火換韋特斯，樂福換他拓倫納德，把JR科沃爾還有弗萊傑弗森送去勇士然後把克里夫蘭一把火燒了吧。

[–]Cavalierspnkwaterbottle 45 指標 2 天前

"Kyrie to the heat for Dion"

Dude Miami isn"t going to trade NBA legend Dion Waiters for the the 10th best PG in the east lmao what crack you smokin?

「歐文換韋特斯」

熱火才不會為了一個東部第十好的控衛交易掉NBA傳奇球員韋特斯，你肯定是喝了假酒。

[–]Netsaaliyaahson[S] 112 指標 2 天前

All of these predictions came right before the final started. But he said the Cavs are his pick no matter what

他的所有預測都是決賽前才來的。但他說了不管怎樣都會選騎士。

[–][LAL] D"Angelo RussellMiopTop 199 指標 2 天前

Which means he"ll probably change it 5 times before next Wednesday

估計下周三前他都會變上個5次