叕做手術！恩比德續約到底是怎樣的情況|玻璃屬性註定無緣頂薪？

美國JRS之聲

叕做手術！恩比德續約到底是怎樣的情況|玻璃屬性註定無緣頂薪？

Joel Embiid Extension (self.nba)

恩比德的續約情況

I was listening to the Woj Video Essay on Embiid"s Extension and the topic is kinda fascinating. He"s eligible for a 5 year 151 million dollar extension this summer. The negotiation between both sides will get very interesting this summer.

Who has the leverage?

How much does he get in guranteed money?

Can you commit max money to an injury prone player?

Do you let him go to restricted free agency where another team can give him a poisonous contract such as including player option years and trade kickers?

Do you contemplate trading him before the season starts to get value back if you don"t want to max him like you didn"t want to max Noel?

How do you guys see this scenario playing out?

最近Woj對恩比德即將面臨的續約事項做了一個視頻，這個話題我感覺很有意思。這個夏天他有資格得到一份5年1.51億美元的續約合同，所以到時雙方的博弈將會非常有趣，具體如下：

主動權究竟掌握在哪一方手裡？

合同里受保障的部分究竟有多少？

你能放心給一個玻璃人頂薪嗎？

或者76人是否願意放他進去受限制的自由球員市場，到時很可能其他的球隊會向他開出一份毒藥合同，比如包括好幾年的球員選項以及交易紅利。

如果76人覺得他們同樣不想給恩比德頂薪，就像對待諾埃爾那樣的話，他們會不會在新賽季開始前就交易掉他從而換回其他有價值的資產？

你們大家覺得最終情形會是怎麼樣的呢？

[–]Bullswylin247 26 指標 11小時前

He"s play 31 professional games, no way hes getting the max.

他從頭到尾只打了31場NBA的比賽，不可能拿頂薪的。

[–]Lakerspickprotection[S] 5 指標 11小時前

Ok but what do you do from the Sixers standpoint if he is hell bent on a max. Do you offer it to him, do you trade him before he hits restricted free agency, or do you wait till he hits restricted free agency and just match any contract?

雖然事實是這樣，但是從76人的角度出發，如果恩比德一口咬定非頂薪不簽的話，你會怎麼做？你會給他頂薪嗎，還是在他進入受限制自由球員市場前就交易他，或是等待他進入受限制球員市場後再匹配他得到的任何合同？

[–]Bullswylin247 3 指標 11小時前

Wait till restricted and hope some other team isn"t desperate to give him the max.

還是等他進入受限制球員市場之後再說吧，希望其他的球隊不會絕望到去給他頂薪。

[–]Nuggetssborado 11 指標 10小時前

The Nets are that desperate.

顯然籃網就有那麼絕望。

[–][CLE] Kyrie IrvingZaDu25 3 指標 6小時前

Yeah without any draft capital to speak of I can"t imagine they don"t throw a max deal at him and hope for the best. They"re looking at a really long rebuild either way so may as well take a shot on a better prospect than you"ll find in the draft with their remaining picks.

是的，在沒有任何選秀權的情況下，我想像得出籃網肯定會用頂薪砸向他從而期望得到最好的結果。他們正面對著一個周期非常長的重建過程，從而肯定願意試一試這些比從選秀中得來好得多的即戰力和潛力股。

[–]Lakerskkhire 7 指標 9小時前

bro there"ll be 10 teams that will throw him the max. he"s so good that the risk is worth it

朋友，聯盟其他球隊會爭先恐後的給他頂薪的，他太棒了，值得冒這個險。

[–]Warriorsorphan_tears_ 1 指標 6小時前

There"s absolutely no way that they trade him or let him walk. Philly would crucify them. I don"t think they"ll offer a max, but they"ll match one if someone else does

毫無疑問76人是不可能交易他或是放他走的，那樣費城球迷會把他們釘在，我也不覺得76人會給頂薪，但是他們肯定會匹配任何恩比德得到的報價。

[–]BullsHollow41 22 指標 11小時前

If you max him, you are stupid, if you let him walk, you are stupid too.

給他頂薪絕對是愚蠢的行文，放走他則是更愚蠢的行為。

[–]Lakerspickprotection[S] 2 指標 11小時前

So what do you do if he doesn"t accept your offer and says I"ll wait till restricted free agency and someone offers the max. Are you stupid either way or do you trade him this summer if he refuses your offer?

那麼如果他拒絕了非頂薪合同，然後進入了非限制球員市場，那時又有其他球隊給他提供了頂薪的話，你該怎麼辦呢。照你的邏輯，無論怎麼做都是愚蠢的，所以如果恩比德真的拒絕了非頂薪合同的話，是否應該就在這個夏天交易他呢？

[–]BullsHollow41 2 指標 11小時前

Honestly I don"t know, being Colangelo in this situation suck. I would just try to do mental gymnastic and if he wants max money then convince him to take a 2 year deal or something like that.

老實說我不知道如果這樣的情況發生該怎麼辦，站在科蘭傑洛的角度來說這問題太不好解決了。我只想儘力做通恩比德的思想工作，而且如果他真的只接受頂薪的話，盡量說服他簽下短期的合同，比如兩年或是類似的。

[–]Lakerspickprotection[S] 2 指標 11小時前

If I"m not mistaken I think extensions have to be at least 3 years in length. They can be a fake three years such as 2 years + 1 year player/team option though.

如果我沒記錯的話，續約好像最起碼得是3年以上的合同。不過也可以不是實際上的三年，比如你可以只給他兩年的合同，最後一年換成球員/球隊選項。

[–]johncenatbh 44 指標 11小時前

If i was a GM i wouldnt max him, i"d give him a deal like the Warriors did with Curry, even Curry wasn"t as injury prone as Embiid then but he lost a lot of money.

如果我是GM的話，肯定不會給他頂薪，我會給他類似於當時勇士給庫里開出的合同，即使庫里並不像恩比德這樣的玻璃，在當時他也損失了很多的錢。

[–]Lakerspickprotection[S] 18 指標 11小時前

What if the Sixers offer him that and he refuses. Are you forced to trade him or do you wait till he hits restricted free agency and just match any offer?

如果76人給了他類似庫里的合同然後他拒絕了呢。那樣你會直接交易他，還是說等到他進入受限制自由球員市場後再匹配任何對他開出的報價呢？

[–]johncenatbh 26 指標 11小時前

You wait, and if he is healthy u match it, if he isn"t, you don"t, theres too much risk giving a guy with Embiids history a 5 year max right away, he hasn"t been healthy his entire pro career even in college.

你應該等，如果那時他非常健康的話就匹配，否則就不匹配。對於有恩比德這樣的傷病歷史來說，給他5年頂薪風險太大了，在職業生涯中他從來就沒能保持健康，就算在大學裡也是這樣。

[–]LakersKsanti 4 指標 11小時前

They"re not going to extend him on a max. They"re going to wait until til free agency and if he"s tracking the right way match any offer. They got saved somewhat by him missing the all Star vote because it makes it pretty much impossible for him to become rose rule eligible, but I don"t see them locking their future around embiids health earlier than they have to

76人不會給他頂薪續約的。他們肯定會一直等到恩比德進入受限制自由球員市場，如果一切發展的都順利，他們才會匹配恩比德收到的任何報價。從某種意義上來說，恩比德在全明星周末前的受傷對76人有些好處，雖然他也不太可能達到羅斯條款的要求。但是我感覺在恩比德能夠保證自己的健康前，76人是不會把自己的前途鎖定在這個大個子身上的。

[–]76ersKingKingington 3 指標 11小時前

Not an exact answer, but more of a response to the initial answers I"ve seen; don"t forget how much this guy loves the process/Philly. You can see and hear it in a lot of what he does. I think like anyone he wants to get paid but he"s also not stupid so I"d think he understands the injury concerns. I genuinely believe he"d rather be here than have max money.

Now as for my actual answer for OP, I"d say we see a deal similar to Curry"s (not the exact money, but mostly the idea that it"ll be team friendly to prove he can hold up).

我並沒有什麼明確的答案，我的評論更像是對上面這些答案的一個回答；別忘了這傢伙對費城以及「相信這個過程」有多麼的喜愛。你能從他的所見所為中看到很多這樣的表現。我認為和其他所有人一樣，恩比德也想拿到最多的錢，但他不至於傻到完全不考慮自己偏玻璃的屬性。我真的覺得與其拿到頂薪，他更願意留在費城打球。

至於我自己對樓主的答案，我覺得最後76人還是會提供一份類似庫里當年簽下的合同（金額肯定不會 一樣，但是道理是差不多的——有利於球隊後續操作，幫助他更好的保持健康）。

[–]MavericksMMM343 3 指標 11小時前

Very interesting. I"d say the 76ers have most of the leverage and Embiid will most likely trying to get as much money as possible. The 76ers won"t be looking to pay him that much but they"ll definitely try to keep him from becoming a free agent.

非常有趣的話題。我會說76人還是佔據了絕大多數的主動權，而且恩比德肯定會盡最大可能的去拿到最多的錢。76人不會給他頂薪，但是毫無疑問他們會盡全力避免恩比德成為自由球員。

[–]MarvFuckingAlbert 3 指標 11小時前

76ers are stupid if they max him.

如果給了頂薪，76人就是傻子。

[–]SunsSt3rlinArch3r 2 指標 11小時前

Value is only as good as your health.

He could be next Oden and it"s no doubt he"s talented buy he"s not worth max or even close.

We"ll see but it"s tough contract to know for sure.

只有保持健康，你才能貢獻自己的價值。

恩比德可能成為下一個奧登，毫無疑問他非常的有天賦，但是現在而言，他值不上頂薪，而且差的很遠。

我們等著瞧吧，很難現在就確定到時他們會簽什麼樣的合同。

[–]KnicksPinkFluffyKristaps 2 指標 11小時前

Honestly, it"s kind of hard for us to say, because we don"t have full access to his medical info like Philly do.

老實講我們很難說最後的合同是怎樣的，因為我們不像76人那樣對他的身體狀態有全方位的了解。

[–]TimberwolvesSwishBender 1 指標 11小時前

If you put yourself in the GM"s shoes the only play is to max him. We all know he is a franchise player if he is healthy. If your team stalls out because he can"t make it to the floor everyone will understand the gamble.

You could let him hit restricted free agency and match whatever offer he picks. Sure it could have a bunch of terrible crap in it but at the end of the day your team still has his bird rights to make a max offer should he opt out. It gives, at least, an extra two years of evaluation.

Of course he could get pissed you didn"t believe in him, stay healthy, and walk. In that case everyone will think you as the GM fucked up the best shot your franchise had at a championship and everyone will hate you for overthinking it.

如果你把自己放在GM的角色上，那麼唯一可能的決定就是給他頂薪。我們都知道健康的恩比德是基石型的球員。如果他因傷無法上場而使得球隊陷入困境，每個人也能理解這裡面的賭博。

當然你也可以放他進入受限制自由球員市場，並匹配他得到的一切報價。那時顯然各種各樣的毒藥報價會滿天飛，然而你擁有他的鳥權，所以最後你還是會給他一份最高的頂薪報價從而打敗其他的合同。那樣最少你會多給出兩年的合同期。

當然恩比德也可能因為你不相信他保持健康的能力而惱羞成怒，那時每個人都會覺得你這個GM沒腦子，搞砸了球隊最好的爭冠基石。所有人都會因為你的多慮而憎恨你。

[–][LAL] D"Angelo RussellHolyRomanPrince 1 指標 11小時前

You let him go to RFA, match anything and risk the goodwill. That buys you 4 more seasons to construct a winning situation while having the built in excuse "well we couldn"t just let him leave for nothing so we had to match. "

Even if he"s upset now, the org still has the leverage at the end of the extension and assuming the team is in the right place, he"s healthy and productive that next contract will be a 5 year max.

如果你讓他進入了受限制自由球員市場，並浪費了他對球隊的忠誠。那麼恭喜，你又需要4年以上的時間去建立這種健康的贏球氛圍了，唯一的借口就是「當時我們不能白白放走他，所以必須 得匹配啊」。

就算他現在情況不好，在續約合同快要結束的時候，球隊仍然還握有主動權，如果那時戰績很不錯，他也能保持健康穩定輸出的話，再給他5年頂薪合同也不錯。

[–]RocketsSamsarAHHHHH 1 指標 11小時前

Trade him while he still have value. He"ll never play a full season

在他還有交易價值的時候快點交易了吧，他永遠不會打滿一個賽季的。

[–][BOS] Paul PierceChancelor_West 5 指標 11小時前

Philly fans would march through the streets with Colangelo"s head on a pike

那樣的話費城球迷會提著科蘭傑洛的腦袋在大街上*河蟹*的。

[–]76ersPhiladelphiaFish 8 指標 11小時前

We"d riot.

（76人蜜）交易大帝？我們會暴亂的。

我們的公眾號：ChinaReddit，還處於成長之中~，微博：虎撲JRS字幕組~

希望得到您更多的改善建議和支持！

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