王健林犯了什麼錯？王健林孫宏斌李思廉三個老男人的之間的桿杠遊戲 德意志銀行：金融去槓桿剛完成20％

王健林孫宏斌李思廉三個老男人的之間的桿杠遊戲 德意志銀行：金融去槓桿剛完成20%

三個女人一台戲，不過昨天孫宏斌王健林李思廉三個老男人唱的戲同樣的精彩。但王健林開始有點被槓桿壓的稍微前傾的軍人後背以及孫宏斌眼角的那種神秘、李思廉臉色說不清的笑容，在全國防止金融風險的背景下，加上會議上李思廉來了、李思廉去了、李思廉又來了，還有摔杯為號的傳聞，讓大家都覺得有點說不出的味道。

關鍵詞：去槓桿 王健林犯錯誤

主角當然是王健林同志，稱同志是因為現在王健林的萬達究竟犯了什麼錯誤導致被監管現在還沒有定論。記得以前辦公室好玩的一個事情，就如加入我的名字叫王江林，那麼當相互之間關係非常融洽的時候，領導會叫我江林，當關係一般滿意的時候會叫我小王，再當關係惡化的時候就會交王江林，而最後等相互搞僵的時候領導就不說話而是給我寫條子，抬頭是王江林同志。

小編從目前公開的報道分析，王健林同志的錯誤首先是有一年在哈佛的公開講話，

此次演講，王健林還首次回應了股權爭議。他表示：「第一、萬達沒有背景.....，當然，那次演講王健林還說了萬達轉型問題和海外投資問題。王健林同志的錯誤是通過國內發債、國外收購的方式把債留國內，產業留海外，而當時王健林同志是如此回答的：

王健林

5分鐘前：

提問：我們注意到最近中國的海外投資增長很快。我聽說有人質疑萬達快速增長的海外投資，包括大量的收購，其實是向海外轉移資產，對這個問題您怎麼看？

王健林：對此我有三點回應：第一、海外投資的結果確確實實就是「資產轉移」或者說是資產在海外的新增。但資產轉移或者在海外投資沒有對錯之分，只有合法和不合法之分。比如說吃飯，那吃飯是對還是錯？用公款去吃就錯了，自己出錢吃就沒事，海外投資的道理也是一樣。所以你問海外投資是不是轉移資產？確實是轉移資產，但關鍵要看是合法還是非法，這才有對錯。

第二、中國企業向海外擴張，民營企業到國外去發展，這是國家號召。去年年底，國務院專門出台了引導支持民營企業海外投資的有關規範意見，號召我們到海外去投資。我到海外投資，往大說一點，這是響應國家號召。

第三、萬達的錢既不是偷的搶的，也不是自己印的，完全是我們自己辛辛苦苦賺出來的。我們自己辛苦賺的錢，愛往哪兒投就往哪兒投。企業的投資自由或者資本流動自由本身就是國家法制水平的基本衡量標準。企業如果沒有投資自由權，這個社會也就無所謂自由和公平了。

但事實上呢，萬達的海外投資用的都是國內銀行和市場的錢，萬達到海外投資這些酒店呀地產呀電影呀，其實就是給中國加槓桿，給老外降槓桿。

孫宏斌

5分鐘前：

而孫宏斌作為一位美國人，用槓桿，加大槓桿收購中國資產，而且是用中國的錢收購中國的資產，玩的花樣也是多多。他的槓桿又多大，小編都不敢說。

李思廉5分鐘前：

李思廉自己的槓桿也是很大，根據財報，截至2016年底富力地產資產總額2263.68億元，全部債務1206.3億元，資產負債率79.32%；資產中其中流動資產佔78.78%。而在流動資產中，貨幣資金佔比較大：截至2016年底，現金類資產為459.69億元。考慮到公司拿地積極，中金公司研究報告認為，預計富力今年經營性現金流持續為負，但投資者不必過於擔心。因為，去年末公司在手現金充足，達到460億元，主要得益於公司去年通過發行公司債籌集了430億元。此外，公司仍然可以以低於6%的成本進行外部融資（例如通過中票和優先票據）

槓桿，以前，按照我們鄉下的說法，就是你一個茶壺本來應該一個蓋，但現在你就是10個茶壺3個蓋，所以你永遠缺錢，永遠缺。

而這次三個男人之間的遊戲更像是槓桿的轉換遊戲，王健林把槓桿轉給孫宏斌和李思廉，救急之中，未來路究竟能不能走下去就再說了。

去槓桿之路：現在只完成20%

小編覺得三個老男人之間的去槓桿遊戲未來究竟如何沒有底，這種交易最終是否能夠成功三家，都取決於去槓桿的路究竟如何走，取決於房地產寡頭的監管究竟如何。

德意志銀行剛發的報告在對專家採訪認為，現在去槓桿只完成了20%，未來得有2年時間還是要走，不過，報告認為最困難的時候已經過去了，讀書體會吧。

Today we hosted a group conference call with Mr. Sun Haibo, an expert specializing in China』s financial regulations and policies. We discussed the process, outlook and impact of financial deleveraging. Mr. Sun expects the deleveraging to continue for perhaps two years, but the worst period should have passed. The impact on the economy should be limited, as the tighter rules have forced funds to support the real economy, rather than circulating within the financial sector. We provide details of the replay here, which will be available for one week until 10pm, 24 July 2017, HKT (Mandarin only).

Financial deleveraging – 20% done, two years to go, but the worst is over While the term 「financial deleveraging」 was not mentioned in the fifth National Financial Work Conference, Mr. Sun expects it to be carried on continuously, for perhaps two years, with 20% completed. However, he believes the most severe tightening period is already behind us; this was Apr- May 2017 when a series of regulations was released. Back then, many financial institutions chose to be very conservative, due to heightened uncertainties about regulatory direction.

What are the targets of financial deleveraging?

The focus of financial deleveraging is to bring down leverage in four markets:

shadow banking (e.g. WMP and trust), interbank, bond and equity markets.

Mr. Sun believes the most important target is to de-lever banks』 WMP and trust funds. Both businesses are under-capitalized and under-provisioned so the implied leverage can be significantly high as the majority of these products still provide implicit guarantees. For interbank business, the government will prevent idling liquidity from circulating within the banking system. For the bond market, leverage has already come down, given the notable redemption of entrusted investment during Apr-May 2017.

What will happen next? A new committee, MPA expansion, four regulations

Firstly, the Financial Stability Development Committee will be established to coordinate financial regulators, with the governor to be in a higher hierarchy.

Secondly, the existing MPA framework is likely to be expanded to cover nonbank financial institutions and to focus on avoiding systemic risks. Thirdly, there will be four major regulations to be released, tightening controls on asset management, banks』 wealth management products, cross-sector financing and entrusted loans. While the majority of these regulations would not surprise the market, the key to watch is whether the CBRC would ban the asset-pool operations of banks』 WMPs. If it did, the impact would be substantial, as the size of asset pools amounts to at least Rmb15tr (more than 50% of WMP).

What are the impacts on the economy and banks?

Mr. Sun expects the financial deleveraging to have a short-term earnings impact on banks, due to the cutting-off of excess leverage. He remains sanguine on the impact of tightening on the economy, for two reasons. Firstly,the new regulations are actually pushing more credit into the real economy.

For example, financing to local government, financing vehicles and property developers have been largely slowed, so that banks may extend more credit to real economy. Secondly, the self-circulating funds in the financial sector have reduced notably, which should not have impact on economic momentum.

the National Financial Work Conference, the establishment of a higher level regulatory unit was announced – named the Financial Stability Development Committee (FSDC) under the State Council. Its governor is likely to sit within a higher official hierarchy and collaborate with the PBOC, CBRC, CIRC and CSRC to conduct unified regulation on financial institutions. Mr. Sun mentioned this change is a milder one than previously rumors of consolidation of the three regulatory committees into PBOC. It is said that the FSDC』s office will be set up in the PBOC, indicating regulating control will be further centralized in the PBOC, and it will not have any direct connection with financial institutions. The organization is also expected to put more attention on cross-sector regulatory treatment, like monitoring the development of internet financing and Fintech.

Meanwhile, Macro Prudent Assessment (MPA) is going to be further strengthened, and is likely to see coverage expansion to non-bank financial institutions, such as insurers, brokers and large-sized money market funds (i.e. Tianhong Fund, c.>Rmb1.4trn). Key trend 2 – More specific regulations to be released

Despite the market being shocked by the series of CRBC tightening announcements in April to May 2017, the bureau only conducted window guidance and financial checks on individual financial institutions, instead of releasing specific regulations. Mr. Sun expects more detailed regulation will come out in the coming 1-2 years, especially over asset management investment schemes, banks』 WMPs, entrusted investment funds and crossindustry financing. Meanwhile, he believes most new articles will stand in line with market expectations, and have a controllable, negative impact on the market.

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