Quora外國網民討論：如果保持7-8%的GDP增速，印度經濟需多少年才能趕上中國

If India continued to grow by 7–8%, in how many years would it become as strong as China in terms of its economy?

如果保持7-8%的GDP增速，印度經濟需要多少年才能和中國一樣強大

美國quora網友討論：

Abu Saquib, works at Stryker

Answered Jun 11

India need a lifetime to surpass china in term of various economical strength. i know most of the recent intellectual will not believe and i may attract some criticism here but what is true is true. I will try to make it short and crisp.

Lets compare some very basic individual basic factor which actually matter such as land, people.

India land area: 3.287 million km2

China land are: 9.597 million km2

Notice the area china have is more than 3 times, which India can never have until we invade some country and with present condition we cant.

Arm Force:

India: 1,325,000

China: 2,335,000 (here also china is twice the size, hiring this much force is beyong india immagination)

就經濟實力而言，印度永遠無法超過中國

也許知識分子不大願意相信，也許我會招來一些批評，然而事實就是事實。

以下比較一些基本的數據：

印度國土面積：328.7萬平方公里

中國國土面積：959.7萬平方公里

注意，中國國土面積是是印度的3倍。這點是比不過的

GDP:

notice in 1960 China was only 2 times the total Indian GDP but in 2015 China surpass 6 times the total GDP.

GDP：

1960年，中國GDP只是印度GDP的兩倍，然而到了2015年，中國GDP已經是印度GDP的6倍了

Source: GNI, Atlas method (current US$)

I hope this will correct a lot of peoples misconception about India and China.

And it is not bad and bot good also. India is India and China is China and we both are growing for our-self not for competition. And if someone want to see where USA is in all this please refer to below GDP graph.

希望以上能糾正人們對印度和中國的誤解。

印度是印度，中國是中國，我們都是為了自己發展，不是為了競爭。

Ling Guo, lives in China

Updated Jun 8

Do a simple math.

The GDP of China — $11,218,281 million

The GDP of India — $2,256,397 million

Say India grows by 8% per year, China grows by 5%, with anything else remaining the same:

2256397

?(1+0.08)x=11218281?(1+0.05)x

x=57

It takes 57 years in this case.

做一個簡單的算術

中國GDP為11.218281萬億美元

印度GDP為2.256397萬億美元

假如印度每年經濟增速為8%，中國保持5%，其他不變

2256397

?(1+0.08)x=11218281?(1+0.05)x

x=57

這種情況下，印度趕上中國要57年。

Say India grows by 8% per year, China doesn』t grow, with anything else remaining the same:

2256397

?(1+0.08)x=11218281

x=20

It takes 20 years if China stops growing from now.

But the economy is much more complicated and these results don』t really mean anything.

假如印度GDP增速8%，而中國不發展，

2256397

?(1+0.08)x=11218281

x=20

那麼印度趕上中國需要20年。

然而經濟是相當複雜的，這些結果沒有任何意義。

Arun Bhatia, former IT

Answered Jun 6

China is much bigger, better than India. All Indians want to to emulate the Chinese success story. I travelled to China for a visit. Many parts just like India but cleaner, neater and all believing in their government to take them out of poverty.

The best thing for both countries – keep competing, keep chalenging keep feeling the other is better !

Both will progress then.

中國大多了，發達多了

每一個印度人都希望模仿中國成功故事

我去過中國，很多地方像印度，就是更乾淨，更整潔。

當地人都相信政府會讓他們脫貧。

中印最好保持競爭態勢，對另一方往好處里想

兩國都會進步的。

Michael Lee, BSCS

Answered Jun 1

at 8 percent india needs 21 years to catch up to where china is right now.

按照8%的發展速度，印度需要21年才能趕上中國現在的經濟。

Blair Jos

Answered Jun 1

China took almost all globalization benefits over the past 30 years.

India missed it.

Now all Western countries implement 「their countries first」 policy to oppose the continuation of globalization.

India needs 95% domestic demands to drive its growth rate, it is impossible for India to sustain the growth rate based on only its domestic demands (assume Indian DGP growth rate is true).

While China is still dominating the low end markets, it is changing its low end market into median and high end markets.

Chinese GDP growth rate has reached bottom, you will see another 30 years GDP growth rate of 7-8% growth rate.

India growth rate last quarter only reached 6.1%, far below Chinese 6.9%.

中國幾乎享受了過去30年全球化的各種好處

而印度錯過了這個大好機會。

如今，所有西方國家都執行「本國第一」的政策，反對全球化的進程。

為了保持增速，印度國內需求的拉動必須佔95%

如果僅僅依靠國內需求，印度是不可能維持目前的增速的。

仍然主宰低端市場的同時，中國正從低端市場向中高端市場進軍。

中國GDP增速已經探底了，未來30年你會再次看到7-8%的經濟增速。

上一季度，印度GDP增速只達到了6.1%，遠低於中國的6.9%

Chinese economic success has made all developing countries, including India, have a great confidence to achieve their own economic success.

However, do they have Chinese hard working attitudes, IQ, culture, social and political system as well as the international environments to grow?

I doubt they have.

Autocratic system is the best system to drive economic growth rate, when it is developed, naturally it would become full democratic system in one way or another.

Developing countries with the Western style Democratic system will make them poor forever.

No chance for India, India GDP growth rate has not reached its bottom as Indian GDP growth rate keeps dropping over the past 4 quarters.

The so called India fast growth rate was from the change of the GDP calculation method, it is now even dropping with the new calculation method, as the reality on the ground are the same as they used to be, unless India keeps changing the calculation method again.

中國經濟成功給包括印度在內的各發展中國家帶來了信心，這些國家對實現本國經濟成功可是信心滿滿。

然而，他們有中國人的勤勞刻苦嗎，他們有中國人的智商嗎，他們有中國的社會和政治制度嗎，他們有相應的國際環境嗎？

對此，我表示懷疑。

印度沒機會了。

所謂的印度快速發展，無非來自於GDP演算法的改變而已。

用了新的計算方法，其實印度經濟增速在下降啊。

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