麥格理亞洲戰略：我們最喜歡和最討厭的股票

Asia MicroStrategy Most loved and hated stocks in Asia ex

（今天無中文）

Using our framework from Sep』16, we identify the most loved and hated stocks in Asia ex, by gauging both buy-side and sell-side sentiment. This list should be a handy guide for investors looking for contrarian asymmetric investment ideas and/or portfolio re-positioning opportunities, especially at a time when overall market-wide valuations are at the second highest levels since late 2010.

Our approach combines buy-side and sell-side sentiment

We continue to believe that the best gauge of buy-side sentiment is the valuation multiples (relative to history) that investors are prepared to pay for stocks. In contrast, we measure the sell-side sentiment by reviewing analyst ratings over time. Whilst it is debatable how useful 『spot』 analyst ratings are, our approach looks at the trend in analyst ratings rather than current prevailing ratings (i.e higher proportion of positive analyst ratings over time implies positive sell-side sentiment; and vice-versa). Overall rank is based on weighted average of the two. We have purposely avoided using institutional or foreign holding data (which, in our view, has several limitations and limited predictive power to explain forward returns). We also avoid using analyst 『target prices』. Key industries, stocks where we see herding of views

Amongst large sectors, we identify the most loved areas as India Materials and Auto Sector, Korean Banks, Taiwan Semicon/Equipment and HK DivFin (HK Exchange). In contrast, our analysis suggests that the most unloved sectors in Asia ex are India Pharma and Software sectors, Korean Autos, Software and Semiconductor sector (largely Hynix) and Singapore Banks. We note that whilst Hynix has significantly outperformed on a YTD basis, this was supported by faster earnings upgrades rather than multiple expansion, keeping current multiples under ~1 stdev below historical averages. A bigger list of key country-industry groups is in Fig 1. Relative to our Sep-2016 analysis, we find that Asian Banks (ex India) appear much less hated currently; whilst sentiment on Korean household/personal products has turned almost 180 degrees from being most loved to largely hated by the Street.

We list 44 ultra-large caps from the region where we see significant herding of views on either side (see figure on left panel). Fig 2 and 3 provide a larger list of stocks with market cap>US$3bn. Full list is available on request. High market valuations could cause investor re-positioning

Being 『consensus』 does not necessarily imply risk of underperformance. Indeed, we believe that some bullish herding can be justified by stronger fundamentals (eg Tech sector). However, with market valuations appearing rich relative to history, there is always a risk that investors may be tempted to en masse rotate from the leaders into the laggards. Another risk is low implied vols (barring last few days) and declining intra-sector cross-correlations that are at multi-year lows. In some ways, current positioning resembles Sep-2016 when Asia ex (exfinancials/resources) was trading at multi-year high multiples (15.3x –highest since 2010) vs current ~14.8x (second highest). If a similar scenario plays out, the most LOVED stocks will likely underperform the most HATED. Indeed, the three months that followed last Sep saw the MOST LOVED stocks underperforming the MOST HATED by almost 10% (Fig 12). That said, the LOVED stocks eventually managed to recover most of the underperformance one year out.

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